I am not a fan of trade deficit we run every year. But I believe there is some silver lining to it. When this paper currency dollar goes to shit, you bet at some point in this century it will, then obviously Gold is the only thing which can save us from pulling us down. They have weaponized the dollar and are printing insane amounts of it every year. If you think our trade deficit is huge, take a look at America's deficit especially their budget deficit i.e., fiscal deficit.
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Americans are running Trillions in deficit year after year with no signs of slowing. There is no way they can pay back all that debt unless they simply print money which they always do. This year they are running $1.8 Trillion deficit. This is a ponzi scheme which at some point will collapse. When this shit goes down, every country will run to buy Gold. For the moment in time I think RBI might as well stack up some Gold reserves.
This is why the more i think of it, the more it makes sense to me that IF there is a BRICS currency, it will come in another 10-15 years minimum and it MAY be gold based.
Gold based currency will be the great equalizer of currency manipulation or economic borrowing but yes, China will be the dominant economy of the currency union, the same way Germany is but without common market.
This may be a good thing, because i am no economist, but i do notice an interesting fact about money history : most, if not all countries who are 1st world economies, got there during gold based currency era : which lasted till like 1971 in the west and like 1975 in most other economies. By then Europe, North America, Aus-NZ, Japan, Saudi were all 1st world economies.
So who else has become first world in the post 1970s world in fiat currency era ?
Answer : some of the oil kingdoms in middle east ( who like Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain were already China-esque middle income countries by mid 70s), Singapore, Taiwan & S.Korea.
That is it.
And interestingly, there is not a single first world economy interested in the BRICS that isnt just a straight up 'gib money for oil' kingdom in the ME.
So maybe in some crazy ways, gold based currency may make sense for BRICS nations, because one thing is clear cut as to WHAT are the pros and cons of gold based currencies :
The main pro, is that currency retains value long term at a constant rate, compared to FIAT currency ( 1 GBP in 1820 = 1.33 GBP in 1920 IIRC, whereas 1 GBP in 1980 = 5 GBP in 2024.
This means, the MIDDLE CLASS engine economy : small to medium businesses etc. thrive because these businesses get to long term cost project and fix costs on even 25 year basis.
The main cons are two :
a) someone can come and cash in their paper money for a chunk of your gold, as that is what gold based currency means or at least you will have to come up with interesting legislations that may allow countries to prove gold reserve but not hand it out to maintain gold standard currency.
b) gold based currencies are less liquid than fiat currency, so the entire financial sector loses out, as they dont get to transfer insane-o amounts of money instantly as well. So the baking sector/money market people lose out massively.
From a layman's view, this seems to also be confirmed by history : America and its buddies ditched the gold currency AFTER they reached middle class dominance & opulence never seen before, perhaps foolishly thinking that even if they empower the banking class more and fuck over the middle class industrialists, the dominance attained by murrica would never be whittled away. ( which in the 1950s-1980 was in an unparallelled goldilocks zone for % industrial/goods output in human history for a country and that too at below 5% human population).
However, from BRICS perspective, who are all developing/middle income economies, empowering our middle class to be the go-getters and innovators and money-makers seems to be the way to go and that is where gold moolah is king of the hill.