Indian Economy

[crazywithmath]

If Modi doesn't take any action in this budget, we are heading towards sub 5% growth.

Lol, no. The last time something like this happened (from late 2018 to pre covid) we had an actual bad debt/banking sector blowup (mostly UPA era legacy which the incumbent was slow to react to) and even that giant mess was cleaned up in less than 2 years. Patchy growth rn is because of tight monpol and stingy fiscal - zero structural reason whatsoever. Some action on quantity of capital front should make up for it - even if the fiscpol and the cost of capital sides are left untouched.

What a shame. India's natural growth rate was supposed to be 6-6.5%,

India's 'natural growth' has been 7%+ consistently in recent years.

 

[Nutcracker]

@haldilal @Azaad

Ratnagiri project not viable, talks on to set up 3 refineries at 3 locations in country: Hardeep Singh Puri

However, the minister did not specify whether Ratnagiri will be one of the proposed locations for the three refineries.

indianexpress.com

 

[Azaad]

@haldilal @Azaad

Ratnagiri project not viable, talks on to set up 3 refineries at 3 locations in country: Hardeep Singh Puri

However, the minister did not specify whether Ratnagiri will be one of the proposed locations for the three refineries.

indianexpress.com

Had it been built , it'd have given RIL Jamnagar tough competition. You can imagine the reason it wasn't built now . In any case the momentum is lost .

As time goes by with the fall in the prestige of oil as a commodity due to usage , such a large refinery doesn't make sense. Instead of 3 such refineries coming up don't be surprised if 2 of them do or 1 or none.

You don't hear much on this or the Jaitapur N power plant do you ? It's for a reason . Both aren't coming up.

 

[shade2]

Had it been built , it'd have given RIL Jamnagar tough competition. You can imagine the reason it wasn't built now . In any case the momentum is lost .

As time goes by with the fall in the prestige of oil as a commodity due to usage , such a large refinery doesn't make sense. Instead of 3 such refineries coming up don't be surprised if 2 of them do or 1 or none.

You don't hear much on this or the Jaitapur N power plant do you ? It's for a reason . Both aren't coming up.

The reason it wasn't built was because of protests of villagers and eco-gang, backed by Penguins & Powers( literally mentioned in article )
If they'd try to build it again, the same drama would ensue, not because of Modi-Ambani ki saazish.

Besides, the main funders of this would be the Saudis, but thanks to Penguin-Power backed dramas they pulled out many years ago, now who will be willing to pour so much money into this?.

Whether it was those tribal protests in Odisha like two decades ago to stop that POSCO steel plant, or the Tamilian protests against the Sterlite Copper plant, it is these that kill all fancy projects.

Projects that have full Central backing manage to power through any protestor chutiyas however like the Kudankulam Nuclear plant, no amount of CIA backed church devotee villagers could stop that

 

[haldilal]

Had it been built , it'd have given RIL Jamnagar tough competition. You can imagine the reason it wasn't built now . In any case the momentum is lost .

As time goes by with the fall in the prestige of oil as a commodity due to usage , such a large refinery doesn't make sense. Instead of 3 such refineries coming up don't be surprised if 2 of them do or 1 or none.

You don't hear much on this or the Jaitapur N power plant do you ? It's for a reason . Both aren't coming up.

The reason it wasn't built was because of protests of villagers and eco-gang, backed by Penguins & Powers( literally mentioned in article )
If they'd try to build it again, the same drama would ensue, not because of Modi-Ambani ki saazish.

Besides, the main funders of this would be the Saudis, but thanks to Penguin-Power backed dramas they pulled out many years ago, now who will be willing to pour so much money into this?.

Whether it was those tribal protests in Odisha like two decades ago to stop that POSCO steel plant, or the Tamilian protests against the Sterlite Copper plant, it is these that kill all fancy projects.

Projects that have full Central backing manage to power through any protestor chutiyas however like the Kudankulam Nuclear plant, no amount of CIA backed church devotee villagers could stop that

Ya'll Nibbiars A large Petroleum chemicals Complex now planned by the RIL, and that's also at Maharashtra and to be exact Konkan, this is more than a coincidence, thare are already conspiracy theories making round.

And don't knew why but I have a feeling that this might be more easier than the Barsu, well clearly there a conspiracy angle to that.

 

[Azaad]

The reason it wasn't built was because of protests of villagers and eco-gang, backed by Penguins & Powers( literally mentioned in article )
If they'd try to build it again, the same drama would ensue, not because of Modi-Ambani ki saazish.

Besides, the main funders of this would be the Saudis, but thanks to Penguin-Power backed dramas they pulled out many years ago, now who will be willing to pour so much money into this?.

Whether it was those tribal protests in Odisha like two decades ago to stop that POSCO steel plant, or the Tamilian protests against the Sterlite Copper plant, it is these that kill all fancy projects.

Projects that have full Central backing manage to power through any protestor chutiyas however like the Kudankulam Nuclear plant, no amount of CIA backed church devotee villagers could stop that

I certainly don't believe protests pop up just like that & local parties get deeply invested in such causes just like that. If you recall we had huge headlines around the same time of Aramco investing in RIL Jamnagar. A couple of years later , the entire exercise collapsed.

I've seen a good deal of their dirty tricks over the years including at very close quarters courtesy my own dealings thru previous companies , having friends & relatives well placed either in RIL or in companies which've gone head on against them or even being acquainted with people whose job it is to watch RIL , to casually dismiss anything concerning them as happening "out of organic reasons."

A good example of the 2nd category I've cited in the previous paragraph is the folding up of Dunzo. Arguably it was too small in RIL's calculus but by pouring in millions of USD as investment they arm twisted Dunzo into prioritising them for a pittance in compensation , had veto powers due to their massive investment into Dunzo which they effectively deployed to scupper many important deals then offered to buy them out which was refused leading to the inevitable end game.

 

[concard]

I have a conspiracy theory that, the ccp government made it open source, to show how easy and cheap a LLM would be, to break the AI investment bubble in USA, and reduce the importance of Nvida, decrease its GPU sales, them Chinese companies would get it more easily...

The boss of the company attended in government meeting and showed on CCTV with Chinese PM.

View attachment 23094


OK, some real background i asked my friend working in financial secotr, it made by Huan Fang Inc., a hedge fund company, focused on quantum trading. They made too much money and have to pay more than $1 billion as profit tax each year. So the management team and CTO decaided doing something expensive ...

This company was very low profile as top 3 profitable hedge fund, only people working on such niche market knows its existence. It's also a coincidence & surprice in Chinese IT community.

View attachment 23096

Too good to be true. Everyone in the industry knew the AI bubble. For all the hype around LLMs, no one seems to have figured out the business model behind it. Each request is way more expensive than search. And worse LLMs totally depend on human created data. ChatGPT has already run out of data to train their models. What ever small improvements they are making is not worth all the trouble of spending millions since there is such a thing as "diminishing returns". Internet itself has become fucking boring these days. Google has tweaked their search and Youtube algorithms. There are tech monopolies which have become impossible to break.

This AI is another fad which will slowly disappear. Sure, things like LLMs are here to stay. But it doesn't look like a mind blowing novel thing. Internet search like Google search engine was helpful in its early days. And it was in fact a novel thing. Unless whatever they call as AI is not solving real world problems for people, I will just grab my popcorn and see billions going down the drain. GPUs would be far more useful if they helped in drug discovery, designing mechanical or electrical components, improving simulations etc. Using them for just LLMs and some other AI shit which serves no purpose other than to create shit content to post on social media is not one of them.

 

[Anants]

. Using them for just LLMs and some other AI shit which serves no purpose other than to create shit content to post on social media is not one of them.

Actually aim to able to create disinformation looking so real that it can sow seeds of chaos. That is a priceless confucious weapon

 

[patrioticvietnamese]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CT0J30Kw3QM

 

[Suryavanshi]

I certainly don't believe protests pop up just like that & local parties get deeply invested in such causes just like that. If you recall we had huge headlines around the same time of Aramco investing in RIL Jamnagar. A couple of years later , the entire exercise collapsed.

I've seen a good deal of their dirty tricks over the years including at very close quarters courtesy my own dealings thru previous companies , having friends & relatives well placed either in RIL or in companies which've gone head on against them or even being acquainted with people whose job it is to watch RIL , to casually dismiss anything concerning them as happening "out of organic reasons."

A good example of the 2nd category I've cited in the previous paragraph is the folding up of Dunzo. Arguably it was too small in RIL's calculus but by pouring in millions of USD as investment they arm twisted Dunzo into prioritising them for a pittance in compensation , had veto powers due to their massive investment into Dunzo which they effectively deployed to scupper many important deals then offered to buy them out which was refused leading to the inevitable end game.

The big baniyas need some software update from gormint, they shouldn't use underhanded means to scuttle growth in their favour.

 

[crazywithmath]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CT0J30Kw3QM

The trio of Rathin Roy, Ashoka Mody and R̶e̶c̶e̶s̶s̶i̶o̶n̶ Raghuram Rajan has been repurposing these exact talking points for close to a decade now. As recently as 4 years back, these guys were hyping up bangladesh and even Sri Lanka on occasions - before they went bankrupt, that is....

You don't hear much on this or the Jaitapur N power plant do you ? It's for a reason . Both aren't coming up.

The French company in charge of Jaitapur went kaput. It won't happen.

The big baniyas need some software update from gormint, they shouldn't use underhanded means to scuttle growth in their favour.

Not a fan of conspiracy theories but this has always been the case. Remember POSCO Odisha? Interestingly, here too the Jindals are finding no trouble building a greenfield steel complex at the exact same location.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Too good to be true. Everyone in the industry knew the AI bubble. For all the hype around LLMs, no one seems to have figured out the business model behind it. Each request is way more expensive than search. And worse LLMs totally depend on human created data. ChatGPT has already run out of data to train their models. What ever small improvements they are making is not worth all the trouble of spending millions since there is such a thing as "diminishing returns". Internet itself has become fucking boring these days. Google has tweaked their search and Youtube algorithms. There are tech monopolies which have become impossible to break.

This AI is another fad which will slowly disappear. Sure, things like LLMs are here to stay. But it doesn't look like a mind blowing novel thing. Internet search like Google search engine was helpful in its early days. And it was in fact a novel thing. Unless whatever they call as AI is not solving real world problems for people, I will just grab my popcorn and see billions going down the drain. GPUs would be far more useful if they helped in drug discovery, designing mechanical or electrical components, improving simulations etc. Using them for just LLMs and some other AI shit which serves no purpose other than to create shit content to post on social media is not one of them.

LLMs at this point are SaaS products. But I'm sure in future they might be abIe to design CAD projects and heIp in D&D of various mechanical and electronics components.

 

[concard]

LLMs at this point are SaaS products. But I'm sure in future they might be abIe to design CAD projects and heIp in D&D of various mechanical and electronics components.

Highly doubtful. LLMs are generic. We need dedicated generative AI application based on each domain. But training is going to be tricky as most data is proprietary.

 

[trombone]

Highly doubtful. LLMs are generic. We need dedicated generative AI application based on each domain. But training is going to be tricky as most data is proprietary.

popular take now - generative AI (content) was just the trailer, agentic AI (outcome) is the real picture. give it 2 to 3 years, future is truly radical and maybe scary with autonomous agents that actually 'think' and do stuff (as can already be seen in deepseek/anthropic's reasoning contents!)

Why Agentic AI Will Soon Make ChatGPT Look Like A Simple Calculator

This article explores why the convergence of these technologies could represent the next quantum leap in artificial intelligence.

www.forbes.com

 

[Azaad]

The French company in charge of Jaitapur went kaput. It won't happen.

Orano SA & Framatome - both French state owned enterprises are the successor cos of Areva. The French are still pretty much in the same business.

Last year when Macron was the CG at the Republic Day Parade he brought in a full contingent of businessmen including people from the N trade.

Back then too there was some chatter about Jaitapur which died down after the visit.

 

[karn]

The trio of Rathin Roy, Ashoka Mody and R̶e̶c̶e̶s̶s̶i̶o̶n̶ Raghuram Rajan has been repurposing these exact talking points for close to a decade now. As recently as 4 years back, these guys were hyping up bangladesh and even Sri Lanka on occasions - before they went bankrupt, that is....

Can you counter the points in the video though.

 

[crazywithmath]

Orano SA & Framatome - both French state owned enterprises. The French are still pretty much in business.

I am not too sure about the most recent developments but Areva (Framatome parent) was in dire financial trouble when the project details were getting finalized. They had inked similar deals with a number of nations - a majority of them never saw the light of the day and their South African plants have since become a pain in the ass.

 

[crazywithmath]

Can you counter the points in the video though.

Does he even make any points? He remains purposefully obtuse and deflects with takes like these;

For the past 15 years, incomes of ordinary Indians - those between the top 15% and 50% of the population - are stagnating. (The poorest 20% see a rise in incomes due to growing subsidies and handouts.) Over 120 mn people between 18 and 35 are neither in education nor looking for employment. The population 'employed' in agriculture is at its highest level, even as the share of manufacturing in GDP is at the lowest level in 30 years.

The first point is verifiably untrue (I suspect he has used Piketty's ooga booga stats to conclude this - for those of you who are not aware, Picketty is a charlatan long known for his statistical dishonesty).

The 2nd point is carefully cherry picked data because it likely includes folks (women, especially) who are not looking for low skill labor because of rise in household incomes. And above all, it is practically impossible to create enough no of well paying skilled/semi-skilled jobs given India's population.

The "population 'employed' in agriculture is at its highest level" bit is covid era data (also, exaggerated). Share of manufacturing in GDP has fallen because other sectors have grown much much faster (he knows it all too well).

And I can go on!

I mean, he literally says this,

"How can governments that can’t even manage traffic give economic prosperity?"​

​

He was even calling India a failed state as recently as a few months back, ffs!

I am not on xitter anymore but have kept track of his posts for long enough to know what I am talking about.

Old man is just salty because the incumbent booted him out of EACPM.

 

[crazywithmath]

Meanwhile some other gems from Couptaji's publication;


View: https://twitter.com/swarajk_/status/1883119989634568615

In today's edition of 'everybody belongs to middle class'.

 

[karn]

Does he even make any points? He remains purposefully obtuse and deflects with takes like these;



The first point is verifiably untrue (I suspect he has used Piketty's ooga booga stats to conclude this - for those of you who are not aware, Picketty is a charlatan long known for his statistical dishonesty).

The 2nd point is carefully cherry picked data because it likely includes folks (women, especially) who are not looking for low skill labor because of rise in household incomes. And above all, it is practically impossible to create enough no of well paying skilled/semi-skilled jobs given India's population.

The "population 'employed' in agriculture is at its highest level" bit is covid era data (also, exaggerated). Share of manufacturing in GDP has fallen because other sectors have grown much much faster (he knows it all too well).

And I can go on!

I mean, he literally says this,

​

He was even calling India a failed state as recently as a few months back, ffs!

I am not on xitter anymore but have kept track of his posts for long enough to know what I am talking about.

Old man is just salty because the incumbent booted him out of EACPM.

Good one .
In the vid he claims that all the clothes for the poor come from bangladesh .. Whereas total garment imports from kangluland is 6million USD. So 800million poors buy 6 million USD worth of garments in a year.