Indian Navy Developments & Discussions

[ezsasa]

Well Navy's capital budget last year was 62,545 crore -7.5 billion usd approx.

2 initial SSN will come by 2038-40.

So navy has to pay for all these things from now to 2040. Which is 15 years.

Even if we consider this year's capital budget to similar 7.5 Billion usd ( thanks to falling rupee) and project a reasonable 10% per annum growth to naval capital budget navy will have approx 240 billion usd to spend from 2025-2040.

3 more scorpion should cost 4 billion usd.
6 p75i should be 7-8 billion usd.
6 p76 should be 10-12 billion usd .
And 2 SSN should be 7-8 billion usd.
So submarines should take approx 30-35 billion usd only. As per current plan.
26 rafale will cost 7-8 billion.
IAC-2 if approved by 2030 should cost 5-6 billion usd for the ship only.IAC -1 was 3 billion usd.
That is all rounded up under 50 billion usd.

when it comes to IN, not every ₹ spent directly translates to $ outflow.
we don't know how much exactly, but a large portion of what MDL is quoting for these 3 will stay in the country as INR. MDL seems to be saying 60% IC.

originally MDL quoted 40,000 cr ₹.

Mazagon Dock, BEL to play key roles in latest submarine orders, says Navy Chief - CNBC TV18

BEL is said to play a key rolein the submarine program, while the submarines will be constructed through a collaboration between the French Naval Group and Mazagon Dock.

www.cnbctv18.com

last year, a lot of folks were worried about production gap at MDL after kalvari delivery. this is the price to pay to sustain the production line.

 

[Migflug]

View: https://twitter.com/AdithyaKM_/status/1888541859976544539?s=19

Works out to 4.25 - 4.5 billion USD & as the tweet at the bottom of this post clarifies, this doesn't even include either the cost or the fitment of the AIP. That should be another billion USD.

Add to that 5-6 billion USD for the 2 nos SSN. Then if we were to factor jizia to Trump, thrown in a few P-8 I . Add to that the Sea Guardians the IN is getting.

Any wonder then the IN isn't going full steam ahead with the TEDBF. Where are we going to get the money to fund the IAC-2 from ?


View: https://twitter.com/wartrophy_414/status/1888604448701706451?s=19

This is daylight robbery. We can have a $1.5 billion non-AIP SSK. Last I heard barracuda cost around $2 billion. We better move ahead with Type 214 and more SSNs since at least the Type 214 are cutting-edge AIP SSKs with a non-magnetic hull (without tech leaks) unlike Scorpene, which is quite a standard western sub!!

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

By 2035+, we will easily be 10+ trillion economy by gdp and will cross 23-25 trillion y ppp.
More than capable to afford atleast a 100 stealth airframe for naval wing, and again tedbf will not be much cheaper compared to stealth jets, the only thing cheap would be no cost to maintain stealth.
And as french as shown EW while necessary is not comparable to vlo for jets.
And no, it will not have traces of 5th gen, it will rival amca except stealth, that was navy is envisioning it, plus new tech like mumt, AI pilot( yes it will have that) and if we're going for a jet of that Calibre, might as well make it stealth.
Cost is just not a justification.
And as said before.
J35 A and C , f35 A and C were developed together.

You are taking a optimistic route and I'm taking a measured ( might as well be pessimistic) route given that India doubles its GDP every 8-9 years, yes we would be 9-11 trillion USD GDP by then, If somehow a robust aerospace ecosystem is established in india within these years, we could see a Naval 5th gen fighter. But I've no hope really, there is also the issue of engines ,that is another 5-10 year development cycle thing.

Thus If govt buckles the fuck in and actually goes for a swadeshi 5th gen they can do it before even 2035, but there is no such indication from current govt and god forbid awaam decides to bring opposition retards back to power, we will be staring at possibility of article 370 returning, we don't know how global economy will evolve in these years, nobody thought to covid before 2020, and it pretty much took away 3 years of solid growth out of Indian economy. We don't know how politics of the nation will be by then, I'm shit scared of census bcoz of whole caste kangers going apeshit about it. There is also geopolitics, Possibility of something and it being true are miles apart

Comparing ourselves with USA first of all is delusional , coming to china, they had a robust aerospace sector that only added to expertise and industrial capacity which made J-series of 5th gen jets possible and also fair bit of spying. Defense is fairly low in the list of priority of our political class , armed forces know this very well and work with this mind. That's the just beauty of Democracy. What everybody here needs to realize is our netas will sacrifice the defence budget for 987850339389th revdi scheme. Indian society doesn't have trauma of war that countries like eastern europe, israel, and frankly even america have ( cause population to soldiers ratio is quite high there actually). nobody can predict 10 years in future, so wishful thinking doesn't make sense here,

 

[ezsasa]

This is daylight robbery. We can have a $1.5 billion non-AIP SSK. Last I heard barracuda cost around $2 billion. We better move ahead with Type 214 and more SSNs since at least the Type 214 are cutting-edge AIP SSKs with a non-magnetic hull (without tech leaks) unlike Scorpene, which is quite a standard western sub!!

it's better to keep India's defence preparedness exposure to the krauts as minimum as possible, their country is going thru a mid life crisis.

 

[Rai89]

3 type 209NG 4.27 billion $, argentina-germany ongoing deal .

Argentina may buy three German 209NG submarines – sources

The Argentine Navy may acquire three new German-made 209NG submarines with a financial guarantee from Berlin worth approximately $4.3 billion.

bulgarianmilitary.com

I remember not too long ago when a modern, medium sized SSK was 400 million USD. Maybe the Chinese are still building it at that price. I doubt Pakistan could afford 9 SSK at 1 billion USD each.
This shows again how important it is to have a domestic supply chain.

 

[Anants]

And I just want both to place a combined order 250+ TEDBF in the next couple of years instead of all these Mk-II/1A/Mk-II* shenanigans spread over a decade or so

Admit it mate we noobs are enamored by the looks and future promises but experienced professionals are just like experienced Indian men who are more circumspect and stress more on examining existing qualities(features) than future promises.

 

[Migflug]

And I just want both to place a combined order 250+ TEDBF in the next couple of years instead of all these Mk-II/1A/Mk-II* shenanigans spread over a decade or so

"This human would rival a male except Y chromosome"

This is how absurd that statement sounds

If only we had gone with the twin F404 Tejas variant in the 90s, we would have solved all our issues, from quality to quantity.

 

[Azaad]

3 type 209NG 4.27 billion $, argentina-germany ongoing deal .

Argentina may buy three German 209NG submarines – sources

The Argentine Navy may acquire three new German-made 209NG submarines with a financial guarantee from Berlin worth approximately $4.3 billion.

bulgarianmilitary.com

First of all I doubt the Argentinians can afford a submarine leave aside 3 nos. They went in for used F-16s if I'm not mistaken after raising many a hope of procuring the Tejas a year or 2 back. It says so in the article itself.

Secondly if I didn't know better I'd say ze Germans are taking the Argentinians for a royal ride. The Type 209 is a 1400-1600 ton displacement submarine which made its debut way back in the 1970s. It's literally our Shishumar class of submarines.

I've never heard of the NG variant before this but then I don't track submarine developments regularly. I'd say ze Germans will slap an AIP some modern electronics & something more & sell it to Argentina. Plus they're financing the deal so it's quite obvious they'd jack up the price & charge interest.

There's little comparison with our Scorpene L / XL for it's understood from reports these enlarge Scorpenes would weigh 2000 tons + with no French AIP . The cost of the DRDO built AIP & Naval Group ( NG ) consultancy will be extra.

If we were to go by recent reports I believe Naval Group is charging 100 million USD in consultancy for fitment of 1 no AIP on the first Scorpene which's due to come in for Refurbishment / MLU this year.

At the rate of 100 million / unit that in itself will work out to 300 million USD without taking into account escalation on account of time & inflation . Add to that ~ 200-250 million USD / unit AIP & the figure of INR 36,000 cr will easily shoot up to INR 45,000 cr.

 

[Azaad]

Well Navy's capital budget last year was 62,545 crore -7.5 billion usd approx.

2 initial SSN will come by 2038-40.

So navy has to pay for all these things from now to 2040. Which is 15 years.

Even if we consider this year's capital budget to similar 7.5 Billion usd ( thanks to falling rupee) and project a reasonable 10% per annum growth to naval capital budget navy will have approx 240 billion usd to spend from 2025-2040.

3 more scorpion should cost 4 billion usd.
6 p75i should be 7-8 billion usd.
6 p76 should be 10-12 billion usd .
And 2 SSN should be 7-8 billion usd.
So submarines should take approx 30-35 billion usd only. As per current plan.
26 rafale will cost 7-8 billion.
IAC-2 if approved by 2030 should cost 5-6 billion usd for the ship only.IAC -1 was 3 billion usd.
That is all rounded up under 50 billion usd.

The CAPEX for the IN in the recently presented union budget FY - 25-26 is ~ INR 24,000 cr .

Google Search

Kindly rework your calculations accordingly.

 

[Nutcracker]

If 3 more scorpenes are going to cost 4.5 billions without the AIP I would rather we just built SSNs until a indigenous SSK can be developed. Why is a non-AIP , regular sized SSK so expensive? It isn't even a cutting edge design like the German or South Korean new SSKs.

Rupee is currently at 87.5 means price is 4.1B$.

 

[Brood Father]

Well Navy's capital budget last year was 62,545 crore -7.5 billion usd approx.

2 initial SSN will come by 2038-40.

So navy has to pay for all these things from now to 2040. Which is 15 years.

Even if we consider this year's capital budget to similar 7.5 Billion usd ( thanks to falling rupee) and project a reasonable 10% per annum growth to naval capital budget navy will have approx 240 billion usd to spend from 2025-2040.

3 more scorpion should cost 4 billion usd.
6 p75i should be 7-8 billion usd.
6 p76 should be 10-12 billion usd .
And 2 SSN should be 7-8 billion usd.
So submarines should take approx 30-35 billion usd only. As per current plan.
26 rafale will cost 7-8 billion.
IAC-2 if approved by 2030 should cost 5-6 billion usd for the ship only.IAC -1 was 3 billion usd.
That is all rounded up under 50 billion usd.

You haven't added P18 destroyers ..but guessing our capex will increase significantly by then

 

[Indianhawk]

The CAPEX for the IN in the recently presented union budget FY - 25-26 is ~ INR 24,000 cr .

Google Search

Kindly rework your calculations accordingly.

Nope.

Recent budget doesn't distribute capex Directly as navy or airforce. It does so by components head like aero engines and aircraft head which will include whatever advance to be paid for naval rafale apart from iaf procurements.

So it's difficult to ascertain what is total naval procurement budget.

But given overall procurement budget is up its a fair guess naval budget is also trending upward.

 

[Indianhawk]

You haven't added P18 destroyers ..but guessing our capex will increase significantly by then

I haven't added any surface ship apart from second carrier.

There are 200 billion usd left for all of these. Anyone can make a list of current orders and prices and see where we stand.

 

[TopWatcher]

Why navy not supporting Navy-LCA ?

 

[Ayan Barat]

Why navy not supporting Navy-LCA ?

Too insignificant as a fighter Vs the already very limited space on a carrier

If you can have just 36 fighters then you'd try to have 36 MiGs rather than some MiGs and some "Light" Combat Aircraft

 

[ArjunMK1A]

Why navy not supporting Navy-LCA ?

Do not have enough grunt to do an fighter ops.

But navy is trying to acquire them as an advance trainer.

 

[Azaad]

Nope.

Recent budget doesn't distribute capex Directly as navy or airforce. It does so by components head like aero engines and aircraft head which will include whatever advance to be paid for naval rafale apart from iaf procurements.

So it's difficult to ascertain what is total naval procurement budget.

But given overall procurement budget is up its a fair guess naval budget is also trending upward.

That figure of ~ INR 24,000 cr I've written about is for the Naval fleet. Whether it includes submarines is unknown. What it doesn't include is the air component. I've no clue if the ~ INR 45,000 cr earmarked for aero engines & aircraft includes that of the IN .

It doesn't seem so on the face of it as the IAF itself has already signed an agreement with HAL for purchase of 12 MKIs worth ~ INR 13,500 cr & there's 87 LCA Mk-1a already on order worth INR 48,000 cr besides the 240 nos AL-31FP TFs worth INR 26,000 cr .

Further , the IN order for 26 nos Rafales are worth ~ 7.6 billion USD which works out to ~ INR 65,000 cr. Of course all these monies won't be shelled out at once.

 

[Indianhawk]

That figure of ~ INR 24,000 cr I've written about is for the Naval fleet. Whether it includes submarines is unknown. What it doesn't include is the air component. I've no clue if the ~ INR 45,000 cr earmarked for aero engines & aircraft includes that of the IN .

It doesn't seem so on the face of it as the IAF itself has already signed an agreement with HAL for purchase of 12 MKIs worth ~ INR 13,500 cr & there's 87 LCA Mk-1a already on order worth INR 48,000 cr besides the 240 nos AL-31FP TFs worth INR 26,000 cr .

Further , the IN order for 26 nos Rafales are worth ~ 7.6 billion USD which works out to ~ INR 65,000 cr. Of course all these monies won't be shelled out at once.

We don't exactly know what includes what. But we know that capital budget has grown . So it is reasonable to assume capital budget for all three forces is increased. The new budget heads seems to be common for all three forces because of whole emphasis of jointness.

This is an attempt to break the silos.

 

[vampyrbladez]

That figure of ~ INR 24,000 cr I've written about is for the Naval fleet. Whether it includes submarines is unknown. What it doesn't include is the air component. I've no clue if the ~ INR 45,000 cr earmarked for aero engines & aircraft includes that of the IN .

It doesn't seem so on the face of it as the IAF itself has already signed an agreement with HAL for purchase of 12 MKIs worth ~ INR 13,500 cr & there's 87 LCA Mk-1a already on order worth INR 48,000 cr besides the 240 nos AL-31FP TFs worth INR 26,000 cr .

Further , the IN order for 26 nos Rafales are worth ~ 7.6 billion USD which works out to ~ INR 65,000 cr. Of course all these monies won't be shelled out at once.

Payments for huge projects are generally spread out over several budgets.

Comparing these Scorpene NG with the Kalvari Class, I foresee :

• VLS capability for BrahMos missile
• AIP as FFBNW
• 2000+ tons
• More automation
• More indigenous equipment (Electronic Heavy Weight Torpedo or EHWT) added via licensing)

It's ridiculous to compare the Pakistani Type 039A to the Scorpene NG or the Type 212 NG given that the Type 039A is a heavily modded Kilo Class with Stirling Generator AIP and ours will have a Fuel Cell AIP.

 

[Azaad]

We don't exactly know what includes what. But we know that capital budget has grown . So it is reasonable to assume capital budget for all three forces is increased. The new budget heads seems to be common for all three forces because of whole emphasis of jointness.

This is an attempt to break the silos.

This can also be termed passing the parcel. Previously the haggling was between the government & each individual service, now it'd be between GoI / MoD & the CDS's office on the one hand & on the other hand it will be between the CDS's office & individual services.

A direct consequence of this was the stand off between CDS Gen Rawat & ACM Chaudhari over the mode of procurement of the Rafales with the result things had to wait for the ACM to demit office for there to be any movement on this issue.

The CAPEX sure has grown . From ~ INR 1.7 lakh crores to ~ INR 1.8 lakh crores of which in case of the former only ~ INR 1.6 lakh crores could be spent by the services with the rest returned to the CFI.

The increase as you can see over last year's budgeted CAPEX is ~ 5.5% . Just about takes care of inflation IMHO.