Is Trump forcing India China Bonhomie
A few years back expansionist China instituted hostility in the Himalayas to intimidate India. It almost succeeded until India replicated Chinese type of military buildup together with development and infrastructure to equalize the score. In last little while, Indian nuclear missiles attained range and lethality to reach Peking. On top of that Indian made nuclear submarines forced China to rethink. They had never paid much attention to South-Western border as most of Chinese developments were in the east. Rise of Indian missiles has started to bother China. Now they have started to build a large radar sight in the south-western region precisely to counter India missiles flying over the region and reaching Peking.
Now Chinese, although they are extra proud of their iron clad stranglehold on the Western economies of cheap goods did not pay attention to India’s emergence. But now they are…..Why?
1. India militarily and economically emerging as a power,
2. Unpredictable Trump is remaking the trade world with huge consequences for China. Also militarily, U.S. is building in Indo-Pacific to prevent Chinese intimidation.
The net impact of both these above and with closure of Ukraine war, the Chinese are guessing what is next for them.
If Trump and Putin shake hands, it will leave Chinese without an ally and a military supplier. Also, if Trump can abandon Ukraine and Europe then he can come with a heavy hand on the Chinese to back off Taiwan, Philippines, and rest of South China Sea.
Hence, Chinese under geo-political pressure wish to mend fences in the neighbourhood first. Their fight with India was for prestige and less for territory, hence setting fences right with India is a higher priority for them
India on its part is not unwilling. In one year, Modi met Xi and later Indian NSA paid visit to Peking and now the two foreign ministers have met. All this is to pave the way to mutual de-escalation.
A lot of work is pending but a beginning has been made.