Orange freak has been making unrealistic demands for quite a while. His chamchas want no tariffs on finished cars, an abrupt end to agri/food processing subsidies and a significant reduction in overall GST.
Starlink and teslashit are irrelevant in this grand scheme of things.
None of these concessions can be granted by any govt of the land - trade deals cannot ignore political economy.
Orange man is just messing around and demanding impossible concessions from virtually everyone. Also, that idiot is genuinely looking to boost govt revenue by imposing tariffs (and punishing consumption
) - check out his recent interviews.
I was the lone voice in this forum predicting a total collapse of global economy and catastrophic damages to our nascent but booming non petroleum export sector (stuffs the incumbent gormint fought so desperately to lure away from ccpstan, nurture and incentivize), forex reserves, exchange rates and stonks if the orange freak were to win. And his Presidency is turning out exactly the way I thought it would because the normie career Republicans and conservative ideologues aren't there to keep the drama queen in check anymore.
Cannot make a direct comparison, tbh. 2007-09 was when the lolbert free trade ideas started unraveling, not sure what damages the orange freak would cause now. What we are witnessing is a man made clownfest.
Are any of you aware of those game theory ideas? Being forgiving and engaging is mutually beneficial for everyone. However, the more extreme ideas (tit-for-tat retaliation, excessive forgiveness etc) are usually counterproductive. And what the burgerboys are engaging in now goes far beyond tit-for-tat retaliations - it is madness.
So, I suspect a lot of nations would start getting pissed off and look to disengage from the Uncle Sam in their own ways. Of course, it won't happen overnight but the proceedings can be initiated.
He's been sanctioning countries in his previous Avatar as well . What's new about this time ? He will make a lot of noise threaten sanctions even put them in place , wait for countries to capitulate to his demands which need not be what he's voicing in public , do a U turn once they accept his demands leaving Trump to go after new victims.
That's what he accomplished with Mexico & Canada . I've yet to see him unleash his big guns on China which makes me wonder what exactly is he waiting for ? If the answer is Musk then that's no answer.
I think Musk has read the writing on the wall. Tesla is surviving on borrowed time & the only way it can be resuscitated is by completely banning Chinese EV OEMs from accessing western markets directly or indirectly.
However that will happen once non westen sources capture Li & other rare earth mines , get down to refining them & invest in battery chemistry or have some other suitable alternative up their sleeve.
Will all this happen ? Yes it will. When will it happen is a huge question mark ?! Which is the reason EU is permitting Chinese EV OEMs to set up shop in EU even if their own automobile OEMs are haemorrhaging heavily thru their collective rears & the economy is tanking . If this isn't bad enough they've to put up with Trump & the war in Ukraine.
Coming back to Musk , even otherwise China's a direct competitor to Musk be in in space exploration against his SpaceX or StarLink or what have you ?!
So what's our response going to be ? Go for the low hanging fruit . Musk wants tariffs lowered on EVs , he'd get it as opposed to us acceding to his demands for StarLink assuming we've already decided it's a security risk .
Initiate talks on a comprehensive FTA & then keep changing goalposts when we're getting somewhere. If Trump digs in his heels at some point so will we & the whole world along with us.
Will that send the world economy into a tail spin ? I think we've got to come out of the notion of the world economy growing at the pace at which it has for the past 3 decades since the end of the Cold War.
5-6% growth is the new 10-12% . Trump is basically the Joker from The Dark Knight . He just may want to see the world burn or he may not except taking vicarious pleasure at how individual nations react to his threats. To that extent his bark is worse than his bite except if you're China.
Let's wait & see what he has in store for the Chinese for he was the only US politician who didn't make a show of confronting the Chinese like that Nobel laureate Obummer but went for their balls the last time around.
I want him to hit the Chinese where it hurts sending their economy into a tailspin. Then the real fun begins. In any case China's gearing up for a showdown over Taiwan next decade. Let's see by how much Trump brings that date ahead .
