Israel x Iran Conflict (87 Viewers)

[Waanar]

Huh? Russia needs to start arming Russia first then worry about others.

Need I remind you this is the same Russia who was importing shahed drones from Iran not too long ago.

It doesn't take a lot to make sure Israeli refuellers don't work over Syrian Airspace. They're the ones keeping the op tempo over Iran so high. Sure, the SAMs may get SEADed/DEADed after a while but a few refuellers caught offguard would put a spanner in the works. Also, Manpads aren't so easily tracked although they may not be as effective if the refuellers are at a very high altitude.

 

[Varzone]

Iraq and Libya used to be such powerful states in their own right…Syria also swept away later.

Irans influence will be diminished in the future, now the control will be fought between Saudi Israel and Turkey for Middle East dominance.

 

[Varzone]

It doesn't take a lot to make sure Israeli refuellers don't work over Syrian Airspace. They're the ones keeping the op tempo over Iran so high. Sure, the SAMs may get SEADed/DEADed after a while but a few refuellers caught offguard would put a spanner in the works. Also, Manpads aren't so easily tracked although they may not be as effective if the refuellers are at a very high altitude.

Russia would much rather focus on their own border, you think Ukraine won’t take advantage of the distraction? It’s not like Russia has spare air defence batteries lying around. Every month they are losing some.

 

[Doreamon]

View: https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1934657003533586780

Looks like bombing will continue . He wants the problem gone from root .

One thing to mention is Ayatollha is not only political but also religious leader of Iran having power over all institutions secular or religious . The institution of Ayatollha is center of Iran's Islamic state identity that came up after the 1979 revolution .

IRGC is it's right hand . IRGC constitutional mandate is to protect islamic identity of Iran . It deals with any effort to change the regime .. While Iranian army job is to protect sovereignty of state of Iran . Already lots of damage to IRGC .

 

[Muzh]

Since 2021-22, the world stage is getting more and more chaotic, things are changing fast. Lines are being divided geopolitically.

Who would have thought Russia would get bogged down in Ukraine for more than 3 years. India-Pakistan would be clashing 3-4 rungs up the escalation ladder along the whole border. Afghan Taliban would emerge as bigger enemy/threat for Pakistan than Ghani and previous regimes when US was there.

Now with the trade war going on, China blocking relocation of Apple factory equipment to India and rare earth magnets now, the space for geopolitical balancing is becoming restricted.

I think there is only limited space for one such balancing, Russia balancing is far much valuable to India. This can be sold to US and other western powers by saying that India is a counter weight to Chinese influence in Russia. Otherwise Russia would go totally into China's sphere of influence. It helps economy too by importing Russian oil.

Trying to balance Israel and Iran ties after this war would be put you in a situation where you can enjoy benefits from none. If there is no regime change in Iran then it would remain heavily sanctioned. This will also hurt relations with Trump administration. If there is regime change, then it will be a totally different situation, where you can maintain good relations with both Israel and Iran. Israel and Iran had very good relations during Shah's time.

I am not saying to break relations all together with Iran, work with them where your interests align but it should not come a cost of harm to relationship with Israel, US.

Here is India's official stand as I understand it:

a. India values its relationship with both Iran and Israel

b. India believes that Iran and Israel are mature nations and therefore capable of sorting out their differences without requiring India's intervention

I agree with that.

 

[spikey360]

How short term the memory of Public really is, that too of so called defence and strategy analysts. The country which propped up and supplied ISIS is now being hailed as the most preferred partner of India and Indians. Seems some among us have it worse than Amir Khan from Ghajni.
Also, they have completely erased from memory the sheer amount of men and machinery Russia and Iran sent to decimate ISIS.
Now Israel is the hero. Irony died many deaths.

 

[Waanar]

Russia would much rather focus on their own border, you think Ukraine won’t take advantage of the distraction? It’s not like Russia has spare air defence batteries lying around. Every month they are losing some.

Which is why I said "If".
If is used to suggest an outcome which may or may not happen so we can engage in hypotheticals.

 

[Varzone]

I’m sure you all have noticed how Iran’s missile barrages are fewer in numbers and Israel has shorter time span alert for taking refuge in bunker.

Just extrapolate it to end of this week, Iran will not be able to attack with much effect in near future. (At least using current strategy of missile launches)

The end of this war will be negotiated to allow Khomeini to survive but Israel badly wants regime change.

 

[Waanar]

How short term the memory of Public really is, that too of so called defence and strategy analysts. The country which propped up and supplied ISIS is now being hailed as the most preferred partner of India and Indians. Seems some among us have it worse than Amir Khan from Ghajni.

ISIS was proposed up by Israel?

 

[Varzone]

Which is why I said "If".
If is used to suggest an outcome which may or may not happen so we can engage in hypotheticals.

Yeah but it will be very foolish if for Russia so very unlikely.

 

[snakeeyes07]

Yes . I had my doubts. Still do. For one it means Iran escalating the war to the Gulf Arab states which in turn means damaging or destroying their oil facilities. I don't need to add what that means for the global economy now.

I think if there is a massive Iranian barrage which makes through and causes extreme damage in Israel or action in Strait of Hormuz, then US will likely intervene. They just deployed >32 refuelers to Europe and CENTCOM.

Also THAAD interceptors

View: https://x.com/vcdgf555/status/1934488858986713120

 

[spikey360]

ISIS was proposed up by Israel?

Yes.
But don't believe me. Read up. "Propped up" not proposed. There's a huge difference.

 

[Waanar]

Yeah but it will be very foolish if for Russia so very unlikely.

Russians still maintain a presence on Khmeimim airbase. With planes and all the bells and whistles of a deployment. They definitely have some assets to spare according to them.

A single SAM battery or two deployed and preplanned on busy routes for Israeli planes can catch a slow mover off guard. It doesn't have to be a full scale saturation capable batch of SAMs.

Now, I don't think that will happen but it's not outside the realm of possibilities.

 

[snakeeyes07]

What is Turkey cooking? Reaction to PM Modi Cyprus visit?


View: https://x.com/InsiderGeo/status/1934643400763949061

 

[Soldier35]

Imagens de ataques de mísseis balísticos iranianos contra uma refinaria de petróleo e usina de energia israelenses em Haifa, filmadas por um morador da cidade. O vídeo também mostra o trabalho da defesa aérea do exército israelense. A julgar pelo vídeo, o ataque com mísseis foi presumivelmente realizado por mísseis hipersônicos Fattah. O resultado dos ataques com mísseis iranianos contra a refinaria de petróleo israelense é mostrado no final do vídeo.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfdpB9nRq7A

 

[Waanar]

Yes.
But don't believe me. Read up.

I've read up a fair bit on ISIS. ISIS was just a splinter of the hundreds of militias trying to overthrow Assad which turned into a megaproject.

If you've read a couple of books (I'd say Zero footprint by a former SAS guy is a good insight), you'll know that the biggest arms provider to ISIS were Americans. Americans were smuggling heavy machinery off of Libya after Gaddafi's fall and supplying the groups of which many eventually swore allegiance to ISIS.

Israel's relation to ISIS when it actually turned full on medieval is best described as strategic obliviousness. I don't touch you and you don't touch me.

What are you suggesting me to read up on? I haven't seen a lot of credible accounts saying ISIS was built up by Israel. Some of the groups fighting against Assad may have been, 100% but ISIS as it turned out was never a project or an expected outcome for either US or Israel.

 

[shade2]

ISIS was proposed up by Israel?

They were who would have benefited from ISIS actions.

ISIS would have removed Assad from power, they would have invaded Lebanon and deleted Hezbollah and were spilling over into Iraq also.

ISIS barbarism would also necessitate free and democratic intervention later on.

Unfortunately Irani, his proxies and Ruskals poured cold water on such plans and gave Assad a term extension of what 10 years more?

 

[neelaslayer]

After iran then azeris will take out armenia.Armenia is a lost cause.


View: https://x.com/IvanSerov123/status/1934627321090277781?t=0ksaDF5ITmEbDFJkA8-XcQ&s=19

 

[Azaad]

I think if there is a massive Iranian barrage which makes through and causes extreme damage in Israel or action in Strait of Hormuz, then US will likely intervene. They just deployed >32 refuelers to Europe and CENTCOM.

Also THAAD interceptors

View: https://x.com/vcdgf555/status/1934488858986713120

OTOH , in order to avoid damaging Gulf Sheikhdoms , the US could base their FAs in Europe & target Iran from there .

Can't tell if that would prevent Iran from attacking US bases in the Gulf & the oil facilities in Gulf Sheikhdoms on that pretext.

In any case we'd know in some time.

 

[spikey360]

you'll know that the biggest arms provider to ISIS were Americans. Americans were smuggling heavy machinery off of Libya after Gaddafi's fall and supplying the groups of which many eventually swore allegiance to ISIS.

This exactly was facilitated by two unlikely allies on ground - Turkey and Israel. You are reading a SAS operator memoir and you expect it to incriminate Israel?
Many Russian observers of those times have conclusively drawn the connection between ISIS and Israel multiple times.