Ideally the Iranian state remains intact without N capabilities. Since that's out of the question , we don't really know how long the present regime continues.
Ideally they will want a pro west state. Since its not possible. They are happy if the writ of current regime is rendered ineffective.
Not necessarily . You've seen the Houthis . Now Iran has the potential to be Houthis¹⁰ if there's no central leadership . Short term it wrecks havoc in the Straits of Hormuz a vital choke point. Oil prices will start exploding as will oil facilities. That's the problem with modern militias & easy availability of lethal weapons. Add drones to the mix.
US is oil surplus now. They really don't care about the world anymore. Infact it gives them even more leverage to bring the other states in their orbit. On Militias, They surely have factored the militias in equations. A US president don't easily give an audience to Chief of a designated terror organization without a deal. I will not give Houthis much credence. Americans seem to treat them as target practise. ISIS, HAMAS, HEZBOLLAH all were once tauted as very powerful entities but they all were rendered ineffective. Houthis may seem like a powerful foe but they actually are not. Militias only have nuisance value and they exist till the state let them. Once a modern state decide to finish them, they can do nothing more than squeal. Just like our naxals.
True . But if the Russians are around they will be a very big threat to the EU . And the latter has much more to lose than the former in a confrontation. I'm looking forward to Round 2 - Russia vs Ukraine + NATO.
Both cancel each other out & European hegemony which has defined the rest of the world since 1500 will come to an end.
Yes & no. As long as Putin remains in power or even if he's succeeded by his acolytes or the mullahs continue in power , all you've done is created a wounded beast .
That's even more dangerous than initiating a war with them. It's like what we did with Paxtan in 1971. We should've finished off the entire entity called Paxtan if not then then immediately once we had a chance. We didn't. Look at what that one error cost us.
Russian strength hides the fact that they have lost the techonology war. They are still struggling to develop a proper 5th gen FA. Russians may seem stronger now but their power projection capabilities have been permanently diminished. Domestically they are stronger now than in past. So, I don't see them loosing or splintering. They are here to stay. But I also don't see them crossing even Dnieper River. Russians will remain a boogeyman in north. They will keep EU on its toe.
Do you really think Mullah will be left with enough capabilities to inflict a conventional military cost? I don't think so. So, They will go sub conventional. Americans already deal with multi spectrum subconventional threats so its nothing new for them either.
Now, Pakistan Issue, I agree we should have finished them when we had the chance. But I don't think pakistan became more dangerous to us after 1971. It was always dangerous to us. It us who never recognized it. Yes, They became more lethal after it. But our state was more than willing to absorb those losses. Afterall our state is still happy to let Hindus die in WB.
So, All in all, American have actually done two things:
1. Reduced the influence zone of their adversaries. (Now, Americans have bigger bombs)
2. Made the conflicts more localized and intense.(Americans are further so heat is disproportionately on the adversaries)
