Chinese are doing the mistake committed by Hezbollah and Iran.
The Chinese will move only if they're totally prepared to do so convinced that come what may they WILL succeed against Taiwan irrespective the US & it's allies interfere directly or otherwise. This is a do or die situation for them or at least it is so for Xi Jinping.
That's a 100 times better than being unprepared or underprepared like Iran or Paxtan respectively were when undertaking what they did.
Hezbollah should have gone all out when Israel invaded Gaza in operation against Hamas. What was the point to wait? They knew they were next. on top of that they even continued poking the israeli's.
Iran should have gone all out against Israel when israel went after Hezbollah. Afterall they were next in line. Why not open two fronts and stress their resources.
I think it's becoming amply clear that none of these organisations had the wherewithal to challenge Israel if the latter got into its elements.
Beginning 2006 when Israel withdrew from Lebanon in what the ME tried to portray as an Israeli defeat to Hezbollah , the Israelis got back to the drawing board to see where it went wrong. They had 17 years to plan out Hezbollah's destruction which they utilised rather well.
As far as Iran goes , going by recent events , Israel would've taken them on even otherwise going by Iran's repeated attempts to undermine Israel's security . Their N programs acted only as a red rag to the Israelis.
To the latter's luck the Iranians with their proxies staged the October 2023 attacks & precipitated their own downfall. Of course a good deal of what I'm writing is hindsight.
But it's inconceivable Israel , the US & Europe didn't have a plan to take down the Iranian NWP or even their regime just that Obummer onwards they didn't pursue that option for one reason or another & the Iranians got smug thinking they'd deterred the West & Israel given it's network of proxies.
Now its upto China. They either wait or go invade Taiwan.
Contrast them with Nato Response.
They tied Russian in Ukraine. When it became apparent that russia is now firmly tied in ukraine. They ventured into middle east. One by one they took out russian influence. Hamas done, Hezbollah done, syria done, Iran will be soon, protected porkies form our bashing, pressured us on east using Kanglus.
Russia is a curious case. The aim seems to have been to prevent the Russians team up with the Chinese when the west moved against them in a confrontation. The alternative view is the Biden administration undertook what they did in Ukraine with a view to tie down Russia , increase the dependency of their European allies on the US & cripple the EU's economy by forcing a breakdown in their energy dependency on Russia.
The US was never comfortable with the EU's emerging economic clout for that's usually a prelude to independent decision making . That's what the French were planning since long with ze Germans except Merkel was ambivalent about the entire thing.
With the UK out of the EU , the US lost leverage over the EU given the UK has always played a spoiler to the EU becoming more independent in its decision making unaligned to the US's policies.
There's another school of view that Biden given his old ties to China undertook what he did in the Ukraine Russia affair so that the US would focus on Russia instead of China. There was an ample bipartisan Cold Warrior lobby in the US who wanted Russia cut down to size who willingly obliged.
Americans are one by one shaping the battlespace while chongs are waiting and waiting and waiting. Chongs bet on deindustrializing Rest of the world is also not going as per the plan. The more they wait even other neutral countries will say enough is enough with chong supply lines.
The US's enemies are down but by no means out. If I was a senior CCP functionary I'd see all elements ranged against the US & potentially my allies are either tied down or were more hype than substance.
I'd also know if my goal is to take Taiwan & cement my legacy as one of the greats in Chinese history the window of opportunity is closing more so since in any case the US is determined to undermine all its rivals one way or another .
Hence as soon as I'm in position to move I'd do so. From our PoV , suits us to see a US buoyed by recent successes willing to take on a China & a CCP thinking it's time to rule the world has come .
Our only problem is Leaderji hasn't prepared our defences adequately. It's what we know as adha dadhi. Had we done so probably we'd have deterred the Chinese. If the Chinese decide they want a little practice match with us to test preparedness , we're in for a lot of fun.
Then again no nation has occupied top spot in the world without proving itself in war . We need it more than anyone else primarily to shed our pacifism which has sapped the masculinity of our leadership & Sanatan society (something the Israelis vowed they'd never succumb to after they emerged from the holocaust. Hence permanent wars for permanent peace ) .
This is essential for our character development , when the existential wars begin in the sub continent .
www.militarytimes.com
