Making India an Upper Middle Income Country in Short Term, a High Income Society in Long Term

[NerVik]

PVNR and others.

I know PVNR was pivotal in allowing the reforms to go through, he withstood the political turmoil the reforms brought in the short term, what reforms did he personally draft? And who are these others?

 

[shade2]

Not sure what is the point of this post. I am not saying there aren't any other examples other than that Portuguese one i mentioned, that's the one that came up to my mind. All the examples ypu cited have one element in common - unfractured political system. Anyway, I am not against having such an idealogy brought into our country, as long as it's the one that will foster the next phase of nation building.

You don't need an ideology, you either need a dictatorship/20-30 year term of a politician/deepstate to achieve that.

Otherwise development is hostage to the political fracturing you have mentioned.

 

[NerVik]

You don't need an ideology, you either need a dictatorship/20-30 year term of a politician/deepstate to achieve that.

Otherwise development is hostage to the political fracturing you have mentioned.

I disagree, we have seen dictatorships and their consequences, more often than not, they lead to another kanglustan. Kangaldesh is/will be latest example of letting a dictatorship turn their country into another kanglustan.
The success stories are far fewer. And with no idealogy to drive nation building, we will be left with a lot of mess to clean up afterwards. Ideological drivien long term plan is the need of the hour.
It needs to go hand in hand with educating the population.

Edit: dictatorships will alienate most of the population and when they (masses) see weakness (which they will eventually), all he'll breaks loose.
Idealogy however, can be used effectively to unite the masses, make them feel and be a part of the governance and development, part of nation building, take pride in it and keep it carrying forward. Never ever ask for dictatorship, it will be the bane of us all.

 

[GaudaNaresh]

Not sure what is the point of this post. I am not saying there aren't any other examples other than that Portuguese one i mentioned, that's the one that came up to my mind. All the examples ypu cited have one element in common - unfractured political system. Anyway, I am not against having such an idealogy brought into our country, as long as it's the one that will foster the next phase of nation building.

Bhai, the main thing India needs for nation building is culture change. Not political change.
The main thing ALL nations who have industrialised, have accomplished, is a very rapid and short duration between 'planning for infrastructure' and actually breaking ground on building the said infrastructure.

Look at Indian bullet train scenario - its been YEARS since announcement of the project and basic land aquisition isnt even fully complete or just completed. Contrast that to any other nation that has built high speed rail - it doesnt take them YEARS to acquire the land to build the trains on, whether its commie chinkus or military japan or libbu france.

Look at Indian babugiri - indian babus - be it beurocrats or judges or govt officials - are the ONLY class of babus in any country i have ever seen who spend more time on vacation and days off than actually working.
It takes freaking MONTHS to do a basic thing like mutation in India, something that takes 24 hrs to do in every other country.
THESE are the main brakes to development in India - the lethargic pace and chalta-hai attitude of Indian beurocracy. Modi cut all the red tape and procedural delays in our economy, but he cant do much about our babus working at 1970s test cricket pace on a T20 pitch.

These are cultural aspects that are not gonna change just because a bunch of commies or military or dictator or libbu or any other party came to total power.
These are values and cultural attributes that can only be culturally changed.

This is why, as a Bong, i love biharis. Because biharis i see ( obviously in bongistan and not in biharland) are the ONLY group of Indians who actually value, idolize and live up to the 'work hard, play hard' culture. They are the only people who i see work from dawn till midnight, then be happy squeezing in a jhopri with his 4 kids and wife, meanwhile the lazy bong chaiwalla is whining about 'bihari takeover' while not realizing that he shuts shop 4 times a day - once for bazaar, once for lunch + afternoon nap, once coz wife got upset and called him home and once coz its a nice breezy evening, all the while, the bihari is working from 9am to 11pm every damn day, even when its raining torrential downpour.

This attitude - work hard, take your work seriously, its not just a place to clock in and sit around doing least amount possible - is sadly absent in MOST Indian ethnicities and this percolates into our govt system, because the govt is made up of people who have the same culture of lazyness and inefficiency.

Until that changes, India's development will always be like driving a car with the handbrake on, regardless of which party or which system of politics we adopt.

 

[shade2]

I disagree, we have seen dictatorships and their consequences, more often than not, they lead to another kanglustan. Kangaldesh is/will be latest example of letting a dictatorship turn their country into another kanglustan.
The success stories are far fewer. And with no idealogy to drive nation building, we will be left with a lot of mess to clean up afterwards. Ideological drivien long term plan is the need of the hour.
It needs to go hand in hand with educating the population.

Edit: dictatorships will alienate most of the population and when they (masses) see weakness (which they will eventually), all he'll breaks loose.
Idealogy however, can be used effectively to unite the masses, make them feel and be a part of the governance and development, part of nation building, take pride in it and keep it carrying forward. Never ever ask for dictatorship, it will be the bane of us all.

Kangladesh is a shithole and will be so because of the green religion.
Sheikh Hasina was a net positive, that is why they became the Numba Wan exporter of Choddi & Baniyan

 

[NerVik]

Bhai, the main thing India needs for nation building is culture change. Not political change.
The main thing ALL nations who have industrialised, have accomplished, is a very rapid and short duration between 'planning for infrastructure' and actually breaking ground on building the said infrastructure.

Look at Indian bullet train scenario - its been YEARS since announcement of the project and basic land aquisition isnt even fully complete or just completed. Contrast that to any other nation that has built high speed rail - it doesnt take them YEARS to acquire the land to build the trains on, whether its commie chinkus or military japan or libbu france.

Look at Indian babugiri - indian babus - be it beurocrats or judges or govt officials - are the ONLY class of babus in any country i have ever seen who spend more time on vacation and days off than actually working.
It takes freaking MONTHS to do a basic thing like mutation in India, something that takes 24 hrs to do in every other country.
THESE are the main brakes to development in India - the lethargic pace and chalta-hai attitude of Indian beurocracy. Modi cut all the red tape and procedural delays in our economy, but he cant do much about our babus working at 1970s test cricket pace on a T20 pitch.

These are cultural aspects that are not gonna change just because a bunch of commies or military or dictator or libbu or any other party came to total power.
These are values and cultural attributes that can only be culturally changed.

This is why, as a Bong, i love biharis. Because biharis i see ( obviously in bongistan and not in biharland) are the ONLY group of Indians who actually value, idolize and live up to the 'work hard, play hard' culture. They are the only people who i see work from dawn till midnight, then be happy squeezing in a jhopri with his 4 kids and wife, meanwhile the lazy bong chaiwalla is whining about 'bihari takeover' while not realizing that he shuts shop 4 times a day - once for bazaar, once for lunch + afternoon nap, once coz wife got upset and called him home and once coz its a nice breezy evening, all the while, the bihari is working from 9am to 11pm every damn day, even when its raining torrential downpour.

This attitude - work hard, take your work seriously, its not just a place to clock in and sit around doing least amount possible - is sadly absent in MOST Indian ethnicities and this percolates into our govt system, because the govt is made up of people who have the same culture of lazyness and inefficiency.

Until that changes, India's development will always be like driving a car with the handbrake on, regardless of which party or which system of politics we adopt.

I agree, we need a cultural change, hence why in my very original post is mentioned the idealogy must include social and economical aspects. We cannot ignore cultural defects (lack of work ethic for example, or hygiene) and expect to build a successful nation.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Suggest another name of thread.
@Everyone

 

[Vinash]

Suggest another name of thread.
@Everyone

$20 Trillion is more realistic since we'd much rather use tax funds for giving freebies to uneducated, lazy masses than spend that money on things like R&D etc

 

[Indx TechStyle]

$20 Trillion is more realistic since we'd much rather use tax funds for giving freebies to uneducated, lazy masses than spend that money on things like R&D etc

A general name rather?

1. India's Socio Economic Development Indictaors and Projections
2. Making India an Upper Middle Income Country in Short Term, a High Income Society in Long Term

 

[FalconSlayers]

$20 Trillion is more realistic since we'd much rather use tax funds for giving freebies to uneducated, lazy masses than spend that money on things like R&D etc

 

[Vinash]

View attachment 17101

So, we won't even make it to $20 Trillion without reforms?

Wonderful!

 

[FalconSlayers]

A general name rather?

1. India's Socio Economic Development Indictaors and Projections
2. Making India an Upper Middle Income Country in Short Term, a High Income Society in Long Term

India's upper-middle income and high income status goals

2nd one seems better.

 

[FalconSlayers]

So, we won't even make it to $20 Trillion without reforms?

Wonderful!

Yes, and this doesn't include any major screwups like covid and ukraine war. This is an exponential regression model, so yes is pretty accurate considering present and past trajectory.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

A general name rather?

1. India's Socio Economic Development Indictaors and Projections
2. Making India an Upper Middle Income Country in Short Term, a High Income Society in Long Term

View attachment 17101

So, we won't even make it to $20 Trillion without reforms?

Wonderful!

India's upper-middle income and high income status goals

2nd one seems better.

Yes, and this doesn't include any major screwups like covid and ukraine war. This is an exponential regression model, so yes is pretty accurate considering present and past trajectory.

It is so.

Anything above $20 trillions is a wishful thinking.
It is easily taking us 7-10 years to double our GDP. And since fertility rates have already fallen below replacement, we will only slowdown further after 2030. Becoming no. 1 or 2 may be a different thing since US & China might already have started to decline.

 

[FalconSlayers]

So, we won't even make it to $20 Trillion without reforms?

Wonderful!

Even before covid and ukraine war, things weren't any rosy either. I made one using past data from 2010 to 2019, and made an exponential regression model to predict GDP for 2047. Similar results as the one made using data post-covid. And it all makes sense as well, given this is based on past performance.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

@FalconSlayers What's the annual growth rate you have presumed?

 

[FalconSlayers]

@FalconSlayers What's the annual growth rate you have presumed?

I haven't presumed anything. It's an exponential regression algorithm, a machine learning technique used to predict values using an exponential curve.

 

[randombully]

It's gonna be very hard for india to be high income in future.
The most we can achieve is upper/ high level middle income(PPP wise).
One of the reason west is high income is beacuse they had 3rd world manufacturing goods for them very cheaply and west having monopoly of manufacturing expensive goods that the entire world desired.
Now the prices of 3rd world manufacturing is rising and other countries are now competing against expensive western goods with their own goods.


By the time we reach upper middle income even most of africa will be lower-middile level of middle income.
Not to mention we should never have our production and industry leave in the future for long term stability.

The only way I can see is that west will slowly decline from high income high-middle level middle income countries and china will slowly rise from middle level middle Income to high level middle income, while India in future can reach middle-high level middle income country status.
Only few tiny European and asian countries( Switzerland, Singapore etc) can still be high income in future.


So the world will be most developed economically when most of its countries will fall Into " middle income" countries while few tiny countries will be high income and few poor.
Middle income can be further subdivided in lower/middle/upper levels.

 

[sameer]

I haven't presumed anything. It's an exponential regression algorithm, a machine learning technique used to predict values using an exponential curve.

So, Rupee depreciation is implicitly baked into this model, right? i.e it assumes that Rupee will depreciate at similar rates as in the past decades

 

[FalconSlayers]

So, Rupee depreciation is implicitly baked into this model, right? i.e it assumes that Rupee will depreciate at similar rates as in the past decades

Yes in a way, I made it using historical nominal GDP data from 2010 to 2019 and previous one using 2021, 2022, 2023 and expected 2024 GDP value. These figures accounted for exchange rate depreciation.