Tom Cooper's assessment of this war
Cia guy you can read the rest in his substack.
(…continued from Part 1…)
xxtomcooperxx.substack.com
May 7, 2025, Part II
Compared to the conditions in April-May 2025, the situation between India and Pakistan was "simple" in February 2019. At least from the perspective of the establishment in Islamabad. Following a mediocre IAF airstrike on terrorist camps, the PAF shot down an Indian MiG-21 interceptor. During the same encounter, the PAF almost certainly lost an F-16 (sorry, but videos show "two parachutes" and civilians also report "two paratroopers"). However, the ISI was able to easily seal off the mountainous area in question: all evidence of the PAF loss was quickly eliminated. In addition, allies in the US and elsewhere rushed to assist the "holy Pakistani F-16s," and the matter ended with an official "1-0 for Pakistan."
The fact that the PAF not only likely lost that F-16, but also had to abandon its own retaliatory strikes on India when it realized that the IAF might not have been truly "ready," but was still "present in sufficient numbers" to be dangerous to most PAF formations and to force the Pakistanis to abort their missions, was conveniently swept under the carpet.
As a result, Islamabad was able to avoid disgrace.
After the IAF airstrikes early in the morning of May 7, 2025, and despite the claim that "5 IAF fighter-bombers were shot down," this was not the case. Certainly, official Islamabad and the Pakistani public, not to mention the People's Republic of China and therefore most of social media, were "going wild" after India's "victory over the invincible Rafales." However, inside the country, the ISI and therefore the establishment had to face fierce reactions (a real "rage") from their own jihadists, many of whom were killed. Of course, here in the West, we might think that "jihadists are disposable." And perhaps a large section of the ISI leadership thinks the same. But they also know that they can never dare go out into the streets again without "paying homage" to the jihadists they created. One need only note that the Pakistani armed forces dispatched a large number of their officers to the funerals of the main jihadists killed in the IAF airstrikes to be convinced of this.
Besides, who can say whether some ISI officers were not also killed?
Finally, there is the issue of "recovering deterrent force."
One way or another, "this time," Islamabad "had to strike back" at India. So, on the evening of May 7, Pakistani forces began launching dozens, and then hundreds, of attack drones toward India. The number and types are not entirely clear: official New Delhi spoke of "300-400" (which were shot down), while others claimed more than 500. The types identified were the Yiha III and the Songar. It is possible, even likely, that the Pakistanis combined these strikes with volleys from Fateh-1 multiple rocket launchers (reported range: about 120-140 km; their function is essentially comparable to that of the Russian-made BM -27 and BM -30).
By this time, India's integrated air defense system was at least in place and on alert. This system, which has been under constant development and upgrades since the 1990s, is one of the most sophisticated in the world. It incorporates Russian S-400s (with a range of up to 380 km), Indo-Israeli Barak-8 surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) (the Barak-8 has a claimed range of 70 km), Indian Akash SAMs (with a range of 25 km; it is a much-improved "derivative" of the Kub/SA-6 2K12), Israeli Spyder SAMs (with a range of 15 km), and numerous Bofors L70 40 mm anti-aircraft guns. Accordingly, this attack received a "very warm welcome." "Hundreds" of Pakistani rockets and drones were shot down as they approached (from north to south): Awantipura, Srinagar, Jammu, Pathankot, Amritsar, Kapurthala, Jalandhar, Ludhiana, Adampur, Bhatinda, Chandigarh, Nal, Phalodi, Uttarlai and Bhuj.... Sources differ on whether "26" or "36" locations in India were attacked, but essentially it seems to be the same everywhere: overall, the damage caused by the Pakistani attacks appears to have been minimal (although civilian objects were damaged, mainly by flying debris).
BTW, it was amusing to see "half of India" celebrating the S-400s, when in reality, most of the kills were Akashs, Spyders and good old Bofors L70s (now available as BEL-upgraded L70s). The latter are not only renowned for their reliability, but also for their high engagement capability. And importantly, what is important for wars of this scale, they are much cheaper to use than any type of SAM. They are de facto "ideal" for point defense against modern attack drones