Targeting the navy will be the biggest escalation we have done since kargil.
It would be sure to spiral into a war. No nation is going to sit back and watch as their sailors drown and die.
Balakot, Uri and all were directed towards terrorists camps and no Pak army personnel were directly harmed. We have been playing this game since kargil.
Hence why I doubt any attack will directly involved Pak armed forces personnel. Unless Mudi wants to make a new norm.
It's a gamble. We go after the PN meaning we identify their capital ships ( incl subs) & take them out in one fell swoop meaning all the action happens simultaneously as we can't afford to stretch it beyond a day for then the element of surprise is lost.
Will the Paxtanis retaliate & if so in what form? They can't target the IN with the PN or the remnants of it if we've taken out a significant number of their assets or even otherwise given the disparity in the size of both our navies.
They could target the IN with the PAF & coastal battery units though I'm not sure if their coastal battery units are equipped with sophisticated AshMs. The former isn't easy as both the air assets of the IN & the IAF come into play.
Alternatively they target one of the IAF or IA based or they could hit one of our industrial centres. In case of the former , that's what we need to wargame against for I've advocated taking out significant assets of the PAF too which means we should be springing a trap anywhere along the western sector especially Kashmir.
This can't be achieved in one strike unlike the PN. We'd have to engage in multiple strikes to do so. I'm betting the overall advantage we enjoy vide networking , the induction of the S-400 ADS , Rafales , etc would prove decisive.
The idea is to degrade their war fighting machinery. If we take out the PN & PAF that still leaves the PA intact . That should reassure the latter . After achieving our objective we call a CF. However if they can't get a suitable target once we take out the PN & things don't exactly go to a plan w.r.t us taking out the PAF or they target some industrial centre like Jamnagar , all bets are off.
Either way you're looking at major escalation. Unless Fauji Foundation is willing to sacrifice Hapig or Nosood for I'm Muslim Azhar & leave them unsecured leaking information about their whereabouts which we can't rule out for this is Fauji Foundation we're talking about for whom no sacrifice is too great if it helps preserve their arses . Hence the psyops of the massive exercises we're undertaking .