Pahalgam Islamic Terror Attack

[spikey360]

The Goldilocks period for a retaliatory strike is within 72 hours. If you miss that window, international pressure will increase and it gives the opponent more opportunities to increase diplomatic pressure and flip the narrative.

It has easily passed. Now any action will be seen as unprovoked agression.
It might be seen as righteous action, but always as unprovoked.

Even an anpar gawar like us in DFB understands it, but highly intelligent super genius sarakari babus with 200IQ Doval and 300IQ Modi doesn't understand it.

 

[Jason Roy]

Very high probability

God knows why we have to do this formal Cabinet meetings nakra for security matters?....Things should have been done asap like just after the preliminary investigation on the pahalgam attack.
"Day after tomorrow...we will do a cabinet meeting and then decide". This is actually so so so stupid.
What if they attack the secretariat the next day where the cabinet meeting is held? They have attacked parliament before.
PM should have given a go ahead after initial consultation with all the ministries when he was in Saudi Arabia and immediately ask the generals to make a plan even before he arrives. Arriving in India quickly, he should just review the plan and give a go ahead immediately.....doable in 12 hours.
Element of surprise would have been there. We would have a edge.
Parallelly we could have gone for a full scale mobilization which is okay if it takes some time.

 

[rone]

Day 9 after attack, retribution when modi ji? A Delayed justice is also a denied justice....

 

[Numero]

Bc, Kam se Kam unknown bombmen se ISI ke headquarter pe blast to karwana chahiye.

That should go on 24*7. Double the funding on proxies. Fund Talibans heavily while we keep the Porkis busy on the other side of the border with war hysteria.
Would be funny to watch.
They're already crippled with water & their dwindling reserve. They can only do much.

 

[Jason Roy]

If PM Modi wants to strike Pakistan in winter it's fine..
1. The China threat is minimised.
2. India has more time to build it's case and gather evidence (whether it matters or not )

I would love a thorough b**ging than pre mature ejaculation with a symbolic strike..
But, India would have to until then conduct large scale air, army and naval excercises to keep Pakistan on tenterhooks and armed forces prepared ..

But, the one problem is justifying a large strike on Pakistan in December, when most Indians would have moved on..

By then....the justification for a retaliation would be minimum for the international community standards.

 

[Ajayant Tripathi]

I wonder what motivates you to simplify history as such. Regardless my complete disagreement with her brand of politics, she did fight with a lot of risk, at the helm of a newly liberated nation. It is not as simple as you put it.

Its not simplification. Its fact. She didn't choose the war. It was imposed on her. She also had the advantage as the East Pakistan was fighting for its independence and India fortunately was between these two georaphies.

If she was such a good leader. She could have used the opportunity to ensure our land area expanded. Could have used the leverage to shrink the rabid jihadi pakistan.

None of our past wars were actually offensive in nature. They were all defensive in nature.

 

[Magadha Naresh]

Response to an actual military attack, let's say paki armour divisions charging through punjab and Rajasthan etc, has a different execution method compared to a terrorist attack .
Am I overthinking it , probably yes .
Probably no , but that is the only reason I see for so many chai biskoot sessions .
Mostly I believe 85 % nothing will happen .
15 % a token strike somewhere will happen .
That's it .

 

[Prasad]

The tangible is that Bangladesh is not nuclear armed.. It has an incompetent military. The Pakistan Army eastern command was any day a bigger headache than today's Kanglu Army, and we had good relations with Bangladesh until last year..and we may have again in the near future.. If Bangladesh was part of Pakistan, it would have been permanently hostile..

Yes, we could have had some land around chicken's neck etc.. Everything is fine in hindsight . But, you forget that India's foremost task was have the world recognise Bangladesh as a sovereign country. You take that as a given today..

But, even Pakistan recognised Bangladesh as a sovereign country as part of Simla aggreement...
Also, IG didn't know how much USSR would back India against hostile US/UK/China moves.. But, she still took her chances and went ahead.. So, credit to her.

I know it's hard for right wingers to credit Congress with anything..

I will for once take my political cap off and agree with some of the things you mentioned.

Positives ->
That IG made a incredibly brave decision to go to war. It probably was far tougher to go war then than it is now. With US being openly hostile to India and helping Pak, it will incredibly brave.
I saw some of IG's interviews from back then and was impressed how articulate she was making case for India going to war.

negatives ->
Everything she did once the war is over.
None of it made sense. It's as if someone blackmailed her into accepting the horrible decisions she made. They make no sense what so ever.

We never had good relations with Bangladesh. We only had good relationships with a political party's leader in Bangladesh. They are not the same.
We knew mostly majority muslim Banglas hated us, with same passion as Pakis.

Again, it's like you said, it could be hindsight on IG part to not foresee any of this at that time.

BUT,
that's how we judge actions of leaders, over time.
While IG decisions before the war were very brave, her actions after the war make no sense.
Even if some things can be attributed to hindsight, most actions are baffling and make no sense.

Some one just tell how we gave all the land we occupied back to them without getting an inch back in J&K?
Someone tell how we gave all their POW's back without getting ours?

 

[Sanglamorre]

Classic textbook response.
War will kill more civilians, cripple your economy, reserve considering both are nuclear powers the implications will be extraordinarily high & seen in a long term.
Totally not worth it.
There are other ways to cripple them without even firing a bullet.
I know that no war is gonna happen from the start.

Right, so what's the acceptable loss to the GoI? How many people can terrorists/pakistan safely kill before GoI retaliates? Or, who do they get to safely kill? Is it because everyday citizens were killed that GoI isn't responding?

Do Indians have to weigh the value of their life versus gdp everytime, everyday and pray the terrorists wouldn't find them? Because by that logic, lots of money is spent in security. If you can just use taxpayers to soak up bullets, no more forces needed, so you can use that money for economy.

 

[Numero]

Classic Baniya response.

People like you run in undies when you see a Mullah.
It's good to be Hulk on the keyboard.

 

[Jason Roy]

Yk the seeds of cold start were laid down in Operation Brassstacks. Indian Army mobilized to conduct large scales exercises which spooked the Pakis and brought the two countries on brink of nuke war. It revealed nuke redlines much earlier than pak would have liked and exposed a lot on our side too. We were too slow to mobilize which took several weeks and gave enough time for pakis to counter mobilize. Even though pakis interpreted it as blitzkrieg like war simulation, we didn't exactly surprise them.

And the lessons of Brassstacks was not learnt by the Indian military as shown in OP Parakram. We took way too long to even mobilize. That's where cold start doctrine came but who knows if the lesson has been learnt or not. Or if it's been tested or not. I don't know any large scale combined arms exercises has been conducted testing our readiness to quickly mobilize and strike hard and fast.

Moreover, this govt hasn't been stress tested in event of a actual war. Does the leadership council get paralyzed due to a blitzkrieg or a shock and awe campaign by our enemies? Does the decisions come too slow? Can the generals actually say their mind and aren't risk averse? Can they actually get the job done?

If you look at the US Civil war, the union forces would have crushed the confederates if Gen McClellan hadn't endlessly wasted time preparing the Union Army giving Robert Lee a chance to rally confederate forces. The initial delay of mobilizing and training and waiting for the perfect time cost the Union forces dearly. They were beaten back by Lee and the Confederacy. What would have been a few months campaign turned into a 4 year brutal war.

I don't understand why we have this nakra of CCS meetings. What if the cabinet(secratrait) is attacked next day where meetings are held?...Lol....things can be done quickly informally with secrecy.
Element of surprise is gone at that point.

 

[spikey360]

People like you run in undies when you see a Mullah.
It's good to be Hulk on the keyboard.

You probably saw your ilk and think everyone is the same.

Lol.

 

[Jason Roy]

God knows why we have to do this formal Cabinet meetings nakra for security matters?....Things should have been done asap like just after the preliminary investigation on the pahalgam attack.
"Day after tomorrow...we will do a cabinet meeting and then decide". This is actually so so so stupid.
What if they attack the secretariat the next day where the cabinet meeting is held? They have attacked parliament before.
PM should have given a go ahead after initial consultation with all the ministries when he was in Saudi Arabia and immediately ask the generals to make a plan even before he arrives. Arriving in India quickly, he should just review the plan and give a go ahead immediately.....doable in 12 hours.
Element of surprise would have been there. We would have a edge.
Parallelly we could have gone for a full scale mobilization which is okay if it takes some time.

 

[spikey360]

Right, so what's the acceptable loss to the GoI? How many people can terrorists/pakistan safely kill before GoI retaliates? Or, who do they get to safely kill? Is it because everyday citizens were killed that GoI isn't responding?

Do Indians have to weigh the value of their life versus gdp everytime, everyday and pray the terrorists wouldn't find them? Because by that logic, lots of money is spent in security. If you can just use taxpayers to soak up bullets, no more forces needed, so you can use that money for economy.

Exactly.
That's why I said na, One Nation, One Jacket.
If you have been shot, shame on you.

 

[randombully]

That should go on 24*7. Double the funding on proxies. Fund Talibans heavily while we keep the Porkis busy on the other side of the border with war hysteria.
Would be funny to watch.
They're already crippled with water & their dwindling reserve. They can only do much.

Now That's the plan I like.
Maulana modi won't do it tho.
Proxy attacks should have started days back if he intended.

 

[spikey360]

I don't understand why we have this nakra of CCS meetings. What if the cabinet(secratrait) is attacked next day where meetings are held?...Lol....things can be done quickly informally with secrecy.
Element of surprise is gone at that point.

It's all for domestic consumption.
News channels will show this, earn ad money. Gaurav Arya will show this, earn YouTube ads. What else do you want? Strike on Pakistan? 404 - Not found.

 

[asl001]

Here in Karnataka. News related to Pehalgam retaliation is overwhelming.
Caste census is not at all a topic of discussion. Even in pro-cong or dalal media .

 

[asl001]

It's all for domestic consumption.
News channels will show this, earn ad money. Gaurav Arya will show this, earn YouTube ads. What else do you want? Strike on Pakistan? 404 - Not found.

It's MAJOR Gaurav Arya. You may hate his stance and opinions. You may be a libby. But still show some respect towards the man.
And he is surely not doing for ad money.

 

[Azaad]

The issue is you are always aiming at a moving target. It’s easy to say by x dare we will have the power to act

Arguably in 2019 you could’ve said the same about 2025- S400, Rafale, LCA, Arihant etc etc all will be online by then

The enemy won’t stand still either

Like I said the biggest issue I have is India’s inability to surgically target its enemies. The guys that were pulling down civilian (and let’s not forget service men) trousers last week are STILL breathing

The guys that mastermind every attack for the last 3 decades in India are all going to die of old
Age in comfort in Pakistan

India just doesn’t seem interested in fighting to win, always fighting to draw hence it doesn’t matter what assets you induct or what MIC you build up

Of all the people prognosticating , it's really painful to read this from you - a veteran of fora & well respected one at that.

India's fighting for a draw is coz India winning means annihilation of Paxtan. How can the latter be accomplished given it's a N power ? That war was lost in the 1980s itself when the original Pappu was the PM & did nothing to prevent Paxtan from going Nuclear.

Refer to Kuldip Nayyar's expose of Paxtan in India Today around the time Operation Brass Tacks was going on . They merely had a couple of N devices with practically no means of delivery , essentially gravity bombs ( F-16 modifications were off limits & they hadn't gotten down to modifying the Mirages then. Paxtan getting missiles & its ToT was a later development ) & what did Rajiv Gandhi do ?

He chickened out & Operation Brass Tacks - the prototype for Cold Start was curtailed . That there was the pre emption plan flushed down the toilet .

Since then we've been balancing economic growth with maintaining internal security & tackling Paxtan. The latter's descent into chaos is a recent phenomenon which actually can be dated to ousting IK from office not even 4 years ago. Since then their slide has been rapid. This is a developing situation. The N weapons are still intact.

You want India to go head on against Paxtan when we've a huge problem with China still dangling like a sword over our heads ? That's prioritising tactics over strategy - right out of the green book.

First of all we won't achieve what we seek & even if we do it'd come at a price so terrible , we'd be in absolutely no position to challenge China for the next 3-4 decades for that's what it'd take to reconstruct our economy & war fighting machinery.

 

[notaname]

After reading all arguments here and on SM I think the broad category of opinions is as such listing by severity of desired action.
1. The attack immediately gang.
2. The prepare stocks and attack gang.
3. Prepare for a winter campaign a la 1971.
4. China hawk gang .. China will take action so build up to counter said action and only then attack.
5. Dhandho gang.. We have a once in lifetime to truely become an industrialized nation if we play our cards right with unkil .. we can do to china what china did to the ussr. So lets not fuck it up by any war.

I think you'll will find yourselves on this spectrum . Incase I missed another POV do state it.

Don't abuse me guys but I have one more point to add.

Maybe like maybe our retaliation is being pushed a bit due to hange in commander of northern command as new one will need a bit time to take the charge completely?


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