Pahalgam Islamic Terror Attack

Do you think a Military response going to happen?.

  • Total voters
    203
I see even the prepare-niks showing gradual signs of impatience now in their posts.
This is good. Pile on the pressure on the incompetent I say.
 
tarunraju said:
Let me set some expectations right in this thread.

You are not going to beat Pakistan with economic warfare. Pakis run on credit lines, and any economic damage you inflict will be part of their next bheek application to Beijing or Washington, which will be promptly granted. You are not trying to wage economic war against the paki exchequer but the chicom/wignat exchequer--it's like pissing against the wind.

An erratic water supply means failed crops, which could cause some domestic political upheaval, because bheek will import food from the world food markets (there's plenty of food in the world); but the paki feudal farmer will have lighter wallets. Pakis have a very similar feudal farming system to the arthiyas of Indian Punjab. The trickle down of that bheek to peasants under each feudal farmer will be much less.

Pakistan stopped being a conventional adversary as of 1971, it is fighting textbook Islamic war. Losses are not measured in lives but territory. Pakis could attempt to encroach India, get pushed back, but as long as they're pushed back to the status quo (LC/WB/IB, whatever), the attempt is never written as a defeat in their books, no matter how many lives were lost.

The only real damage you can cause to pakis is loss of territory. Loss of territory, especially in a war they started, would have a devastating impact on the hukumat. When pakis lost territory in 1971, it was a bloodbath in West Pakistan for almost the entire decade of the 1970s--jernails and feudal families, everyone lost lives (Zia, Zulfikar Bhutto, you name it).

Any Indian response to a conflict pakis started should aim to grab territory, however small that might be, even if it means smoothing out bulges along the LC. Those dumbasses practically handed this option to us by walking away from Simla Agreement. Even telling pakis "hey look, these are the peaks and bulges we grabbed," would devastate their morale, no amount of retorting with losses of life on the Indian side will hide their cope. Establishing loss of territory as a new normal for paki gandmasti would have a deterrent effect like no other.

For there to be any meaningful peace in Kashmir, both pakis the local kashmiris need to be told that India has complete area domination, and all of their acts will be invoiced--payable in territory.

All that said, I have no clue what India is planning. Paki mobilisation is aimed to create a Parakram-like stalemate, which means at some level they realise India is going to tug at the LC and IB.

There are two factors that pakis are overplaying, exactly because they are overrated:
1. Nukes
2. Chicoms

Nukes--pakis are not going to nuke us over any ingress we make into PoK. No elaboration needed. Even the looniest mulla holding the nuclear trigger knows that starting a nuclear exchange over Kashmir only causes them to haemorrhage territory.

Chicom intervention--they will not start a hot war on paki's behalf, they will try to build-up and try to stimulate a mirror mobilisation on the Indian side that stretches Indian force thin on two fronts, but this will not result in a hot war. Chicoms swapped out at least 3 known theater commanders and had to bring in central theater command troops during Galwan. They do not dominate anything in that front.
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That's one of the options. It's already been war gamed long ago due to have been implemented in 2001 as you pointed out earlier when Lt Gen Nanavati was the then Northern Army Commander.

The problem with this approach is we can slip very easily into a prolonged confrontation which is a war.

Paxtan may have not much to lose but we do . Our aim is to minimise our losses while maximizing their pain which translates to no such endeavour which prolongs any such engagement beyond necessary time.

By destroying their other arms viz PN & PAF you degrade their war machinery & thereby their war waging capabilities. This way the next time Fauji Foundation wants to engage in adventurism they think twice.

Paxtan is a sinking ship. We'd get plenty of opportunities with them if not now then another 5-10 years down the line. That's the nature of the beast . Our primary focus ought to be China. As long as they're around & on the LAC our options are limited .

I don't think they'd intervene but if we get bogged down in a prolonged confrontation there's a chance we may have to divert manpower from the LAC to the LoC . This'd be the chance the PLA might try to exploit.

There's also a precedent for this phenomenon in the Kargil war when they acted precisely in this manner.

Of course having said that we don't really know what our guys are planning but this is definitely one of the options albeit with lesser RoI , IMO.

Edit - to add to the above the principal reason Maulana Munir precipitated this conflict is the absolute shambolic state of Fauji Foundation & their reputation especially Maulana's own reputation .

He's probably the most hated man in Paxtan today especially since the people's Messiah Khansama is languishing behind bars .

Our seizing territory will rally support for Fauji Foundation among the awam & boost Maulana's image. This is precisely what he wants. That'd be the real trap we'd be walking into. In any case even if we do gain territory it'd be at great cost & provides Fauji Foundation with an incentive to then keep hitting back at us.

To make matters worse , 56" has gone in for rationalization of the army by slashing numbers & going in for the Agniveer program - an ill advised move especially since none of the 2.5 fronts have been resolved. Infact to make matter worse we've now 3.5 or 4.5 fronts in the shape of a BD & Myanmar.
 
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tarunraju said:
Chicom intervention--they will not start a hot war on paki's behalf, they will try to build-up and try to stimulate a mirror mobilisation on the Indian side that stretches Indian force thin on two fronts, but this will not result in a hot war. Chicoms swapped out at least 3 known theater commanders and had to bring in central theater command troops during Galwan. They do not dominate anything in that front.
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This is exactly what most of the people do not understand, there will be no two front war.
A nation of conscripts who have never fought a real war since Korean war, will not risk bloodshed, now that Trump has set their behinds on fire.
They may have the "best weapons" in the world, but they have a pile of shit for war fighting spirit. Everyone talks of 1962, almost no one talks of 1967.
Everyone knows about the Doklam chinese attack, almost no one knows how Indian soldiers beheaded close to 30 as revenge on a subsequent moonlit night.
 
tarunraju said:
Let me set some expectations right in this thread.

You are not going to beat Pakistan with economic warfare. Pakis run on credit lines, and any economic damage you inflict will be part of their next bheek application to Beijing or Washington, which will be promptly granted. You are not trying to wage economic war against the paki exchequer but the chicom/wignat exchequer--it's like pissing against the wind.

An erratic water supply means failed crops, which could cause some domestic political upheaval, because bheek will import food from the world food markets (there's plenty of food in the world); but the paki feudal farmer will have lighter wallets. Pakis have a very similar feudal farming system to the arthiyas of Indian Punjab. The trickle down of that bheek to peasants under each feudal farmer will be much less.

Pakistan stopped being a conventional adversary as of 1971, it is fighting textbook Islamic war. Losses are not measured in lives but territory. Pakis could attempt to encroach India, get pushed back, but as long as they're pushed back to the status quo (LC/WB/IB, whatever), the attempt is never written as a defeat in their books, no matter how many lives were lost.

The only real damage you can cause to pakis is loss of territory. Loss of territory, especially in a war they started, would have a devastating impact on the hukumat. When pakis lost territory in 1971, it was a bloodbath in West Pakistan for almost the entire decade of the 1970s--jernails and feudal families, everyone lost lives (Zia, Zulfikar Bhutto, you name it).

Any Indian response to a conflict pakis started should aim to grab territory, however small that might be, even if it means smoothing out bulges along the LC. Those dumbasses practically handed this option to us by walking away from Simla Agreement. Even telling pakis "hey look, these are the peaks and bulges we grabbed," would devastate their morale, no amount of retorting with losses of life on the Indian side will hide their cope. Establishing loss of territory as a new normal for paki gandmasti would have a deterrent effect like no other.

For there to be any meaningful peace in Kashmir, both pakis the local kashmiris need to be told that India has complete area domination, and all of their acts will be invoiced--payable in territory.

All that said, I have no clue what India is planning. Paki mobilisation is aimed to create a Parakram-like stalemate, which means at some level they realise India is going to tug at the LC and IB.

There are two factors that pakis are overplaying, exactly because they are overrated:
1. Nukes
2. Chicoms

Nukes--pakis are not going to nuke us over any ingress we make into PoK. No elaboration needed. Even the looniest mulla holding the nuclear trigger knows that starting a nuclear exchange over Kashmir only causes them to haemorrhage territory.

Chicom intervention--they will not start a hot war on paki's behalf, they will try to build-up and try to stimulate a mirror mobilisation on the Indian side that stretches Indian force thin on two fronts, but this will not result in a hot war. Chicoms swapped out at least 3 known theater commanders and had to bring in central theater command troops during Galwan. They do not dominate anything in that front.
Click to expand...
excellent post. Thank you for bringing quality analysis to the tread.
I wont disagree much, but i will say this - i completely agree that this is textbook islamic jihad territorial war and to crush paki morale, we have to take land from them next time we go kinetic.

but we shouldn't aim for some salami slicing on the LoC, especially where they'd be expecting it.
The real low-hanging fruit, of territorial conquest from pakistan, is tharparkar.
This region is also the only region of pakistan that TODAY is almost 50-50 hindu-muslim. ( 55-45 in favour of muslims if you want to be accurate).
And this region also favours us in terms of easy access- we dont have to cross a marshy, canal-infested farmland network of sindh to go to tharparkar like the pakis do. we have direct egress from kutch and bikaner/jalore etc, so while our mobilization is easy to spot, its also a lot easier for us to pull off a blitzkreig of tharparkar.

And its demographic balance is such, that if we hold tharparkar, we also have the strategic advantage of holding on as long as we wish or even flat out absorbing it, given the hindu population there is literally fleeing to india as refugees.
 
GaudaNaresh said:
Remember this one axiom that is an ancient saying from somewhere in eastern asia, plagiarized a lot by the whites these days:

Tough times make strong men.
Strong men make good times.
Good times make weak men
Weak men make tough times.

Back in the 60s, 70s, etc. our military was a FIGHTER military. Remember, we were the sword of britain. Whites will never tell you this in ww1 memorial day shit, but its British Indian 4th corps who defeated the ottomans in battle of Baghdad, battle of Tifsun and one more battle- the 3 of the 4 main battles that Ottoman empire fought and got crushed in on field - the 4th one was battle of Kars against Rooskies before the Rooskies got KO-ed in the ocotober revolution.

And even before that, british adventures in South africa and other parts of africa, in afghanistan, etc are ALL desi troops.
So we came from an amreeka-like culture (except as captive subject population) with war culture, respect for the soldier and a LOT of war experience. You didnt sign up for the military thinking your career would be flying training missions, you signed up KNOWING FULL WELL that in the next 10 years, you WILL go to war.
But then after 1971, this changed - except for some kargil action - which doesnt even constitute full war but a undeclared artillery duel-cum mini bombing run in one's own damn territory to expel a bunch of soldiers the enemy high command suddenly wants to wash their hands off of and pretend it never happened- isnt a real war.
But we havent fought a real war in nearly 55 years. yes, we have shit tons of montane deployment and counter-insurgency and chinese salami slicing manuever experience but that STILL IS NOT WAR.

And thats why our officer corps mentality and demographics has also changed. they go into military knowing full well that war is extremely unlikely or once-in-a-life event even if it happens. Coz as far as military POV is concerned, no war is good times. Therefore we must suffer the weak men produced by the good times.
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Man when we have the capability we should start making video games and movies about this shit.

WWI, WWII, Ahom, Sikh, Maratha, Chola etc etc

Americans have made cowboys famous by making so much stuff about them. No one in the world gave a fuck about cowboys when they were happening.
 
deathmonger said:
Man when we have the capability we should start making video games and movies about this shit.

WWI, WWII, Ahom, Sikh, Maratha, Chola etc etc

Americans have made cowboys famous by making so much stuff about them. No one in the world gave a fuck about cowboys when they were happening.
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You know what pisses me off the most about the Cholas ?
That forget us NAARTHIES or westerners, even the dehati tamil supremacists go 'Rajendra Chola whacked u aryan naarthie bongs and brought back ganga water. bahahahahaha, you chola bitches. chola powwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa'.

When i am like :abbey nalaayakon, Rajendra Chola is a nobody to me for invading bengal. An Indian maharaja marching all over India to conquer India ? Nooooooooooo...no one's ever done that !!!!!!!!! Oh he is the first tamil to do it is why he is SPEYSHUL ?
well to me Rajendra Chola IS special. but because he is the first king/emperor/monarch to undertake a TRANSOCEANIC IMPERIAL CONQUEST mission and do it successfully, in HISTORY of mankind.

You know how britain pointed its ships straight into the ocean and showed up to India and blew shit up ? yes Rajendra Chola is FIRST HUMAN MONARCH EVER to do this ( dunno if he went personally or sent some rajkumars, either way, it was a royal imperial mission).

PRIOR to rajendra Chola, no king ever dared to put tens of thousands of troops in a ship, point it at the ocean and off they went - this was only for merchants or some crazy adventurer pirate viking stuff.

So what did ALL KINGS IN HISTORY OF MANKIND PRIOR TO Rajendra Chola do ?
Answer : row row row your boat, within sight of land...merrily merrily merrily merrilly..until its nightfall. then come to shore and sleep and wake up and row row row your boat...within sight of land...
 
Captscooby said:
I saw twitter feed of IAF fighter pilot wife .. this was in 2021 she literally called Musha as Hitler and Himmler and called the current govt as fascist and evil and all choicest of words for hindu's voting for Beejaypee .. this was next month after republic day parade where her hunky was in fly past team piloting a fighter . now what kind of mental stress she can put on him every night with her mental musings and which can turn into occupational hazard if the guy is weak in heart and mind ..

Officers class has been attracting some of the wokest female population for some time now .. its only the non office class female family members are little grounded but that is also getting eroded fast as they want to emulate their higher memsahabs ...
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Yea army officer daughters especially are woke to a fault. I was referring more to the vetting process where these men end up choosing wives like your garden variety despetate simp who worships women without doing any background check or trying to check for red flags. Army training itself is such that it can quickly disabuse anyone of these progressive mind viruses and force you to 'man up' as a matter of requirement. Disappointing to see even them fall for it and even in death he is not spared the humiliation of that oversight.
 
Roshan said:
Yea army officer daughters especially are woke to a fault. I was referring more to the vetting process where these men end up choosing wives like your garden variety despetate simp who worships women without doing any background check or trying to check for red flags. Army training itself is such that it can quickly disabuse anyone of these progressive mind viruses and force you to 'man up' as a matter of requirement. Disappointing to see even them fall for it and even in death he is not spared the humiliation of that oversight.
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What happened ironically is, people who concentrate on their career and success don't get entangled with women during their college/uni days and ultimately leave it up to their relatives to find them a wife. They don't know the ways of the modern garden tool and and are slightly woke themselves and end up picking the queen of garden tools.

On the other hand, guys who get in on with women early pick the best of the bunch. So many times I've seen good women go to these people simply because they got in early.
 
Azaad said:
That's one of the options. It's already been war gamed long ago due to have been implemented in 2001 as you pointed out earlier when Lt Gen Nanavati was the then Northern Army Commander.

The problem with this approach is we can slip very easily into a prolonged confrontation which is a war.

Paxtan may have not much to lose but we do . Our aim is to minimise our losses while maximizing their pain which translates to no such endeavour which prolongs any such engagement beyond necessary time.

By destroying their other arms viz PN & PAF you degrade their war machinery & thereby their war waging capabilities. This way the next time Fauji Foundation wants to engage in adventurism they think twice.

Paxtan is a sinking ship. We'd get plenty of opportunities with them if not now then another 5-10 years down the line. That's the nature of the beast . Our primary focus ought to be China. As long as they're around & on the LAC our options are limited .

I don't think they'd intervene but if we get bogged down in a prolonged confrontation there's a chance we may have to divert manpower from the LAC to the LoC . This'd be the chance the PLA might try to exploit.

There's also a precedent for this phenomenon in the Kargil war when they acted precisely in this manner.

Of course having said that we don't really know what our guys are planning but this is definitely one of the options albeit with lesser RoI , IMO.

Edit - to add to the above the principal reason Maulana Munir precipitated this conflict is the absolute shambolic state of Fauji Foundation & their reputation especially Maulana's own reputation .

He's probably the most hated man in Paxtan today especially since the people's Messiah Khansama is languishing behind bars .

Our seizing territory will rally support for Fauji Foundation among the awam & boost Maulana's image. This is precisely what he wants. That'd be the real trap we'd be walking into. In any case even if we do gain territory it'd be at great cost & provides Fauji Foundation with an incentive to then keep hitting back at us.

To make matters worse , 56" has gone in for rationalization of the army by slashing numbers & going in for the Agniveer program - an ill advised move especially since none of the 2.5 fronts have been resolved. Infact to make matter worse we've now 3.5 or 4.5 fronts in the shape of a BD & Myanmar.
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There is no such thing as pain, short of territorial losses. We think we're inflicting pain, but that pain is not received, it does not change their worldview, their strategy, or tactics.

I don't think territorial advances will spark a protracted war, their credit line doesn't stretch long enough to support a forever conflict like in Ukraine, only economic shocks.

The last thing chicoms want is an Indian Army that's perfecting itself in mountain warfare with each passing day with a 900 million+ military-age population in tow. Our state-capacity is double that of Russia, and the potential for India to be a headache in the region is far too high.

India very much does have the window to inflict territorial losses on pakis, and get away with it.
 
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everyone who wants an immediate confrontation, i suggest they read this diary of this one certain chap named Julius Caesar.
Most would call him one of the greatest generals in history and the seige of Alesia was such a brilliant double seige that it is STILL studied in military academies today.

Well, the nickname of Caesar amongst his detractors was that of a 'roman she-male, who soils roman dignity'.
Because Julius Caesar was FAMOUSLY NOTORIOUS for refusing to give battle unless situation was PERFECTO.
Battle of Gergovia ? Casear was winning and it started to rain. Remember, Romans are not archers or cavalry force. But Caesar thought the ground too muddy to maintain formation- so he fucked off.
Battle of Agendicum ?(I think) Caesar literally took the field 3 consecutive days, and 3 consecutive days it wasnt CLEAR sunlight ( it was cloudy) - Caesar went 'nah bro, it doesnt look good, lets fuck off'.

Make of it what you will - one of the greatest generals in history, literally made fun of and called a hijra by his own damn senate, coz Ceasar was always about 'i want least casualties on my side, so everything has to be tip top - the legion didnt piss in the morning ? awww man !!!! no battle today!' .
 
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