RoI vs PRC War Gaming Scenarios : News & Discussions .

[Azaad]

View: https://youtu.be/s5OiTBJys08?si=7T_FKZzmmp29gQj5

 

[Azaad]

I have always had the same mindset, that we need to have a strong defensive posture against the Northern threat. But lately, I've started thinking that maybe our best defence would be to keep the Chinese on the backfoot. Be aggressive, cultivate a serious offensive ability against the Chinese.

Because in a defensive posture, the Chinese have the peace of mind that any war will be initiated by them and that even if they lose a war, the loss would not mean loss of territory, nor will they take a hit to their strategic targets unlike what we just did to Pakistan. They know that a loss against us merely means that we managed to fight them to a standstill. We need to rob the Chinese strategic planners of this peace of mind. That is the lesson in deterrence from OpSindoor that must be applied on our Northern Front. And this is not a tactical or an operational goal. This has the potential to affect the Grand Strategy of the enemy.

But how to do it? Out of the capabilities we can develop:-
>A Strike Corps leading a ground invasion into China is the hardest to achieve given our already massive Army size. We can't raise more units. What we have now is barely sufficient for a two front war. So the only way to do that is to decisively defeat Pak enough to be able to do a 2020 I Strike Corps type transfer of formations from Western front to Northern front. And this involves a complete change in equipment and training, not just an air force style pivot between the fronts.

>An offensive air campaign capability. This is medium hardness. PLAAF is better than us in density of AD, EW and AEW&CS. In quality of jets, we are behind but closing the gap. In quantity of jets, we are level in a short war and woefully unprepared in a long war. And we are losing edge due to more numerous Chinese airbases and their improved hardening which is catching up to ours. As long as our CATS and AMCA come online at least, this is a non starter.

>An offensive missile campaign. Lowest hanging fruit, but still has significant challenges. Their AD had weaknesses but they are no Pakistan. The sheer density of their AD assets is much more than our own, look at their orbat. And they have an IADS supplied by an endless capacity of their military industry. In addition to their AD, the number of and distance to targets is also enormous. Most are outside our missile reach. And our missiles are in perpetual trials, lack in magazine capacity, lack in range and lack in aerial strike platforms for launch. And this is the lowest hanging fruit.

Let me clarify, I am not talking about tactical targets, I am talking about strategic ones. Like Chengdu.

And there is the Cyber dimension that I completely neglected because frankly I have very little idea about it.

Overall, achieving what I suggest currently seems difficult if not outright impossible. But in our military perspective planning of 15 years hence, this must be a major goal. To take peace away from the mind of the Chinese planner. To establish deterrence.

View: https://www.youtube.com/live/MNzCmyHDoig?si=Vv1KRbBOGD3xKjF4

A lot of the points you've raised are answered here. There will be no two front war for that will turn nuclear at least as far as we're concerned vis a vis Paxtan. What's more Fauji Foundation knows it .

The danger as it exists today is if Paxtan offers its territory as a staging area for Chinese war machinery .

Be that as it may , given the way things are rapidly moving I've serious doubts Paxtan as it exists today will survive up until 2030.

Having said that we can't afford to let our guard down. Our task would be to accelerate this by increasing funding for the Taliban Afghanistan, TTP the Balochi Sarmachars & all those separatist organizations springing up in Paxtan. We can rest assured Fauji Foundation & the Paxtani awam will do the rest

 

[Okabe Rintarou]

View: https://www.youtube.com/live/MNzCmyHDoig?si=Vv1KRbBOGD3xKjF4

A lot of the points you've raised are answered here. There will be no two front war for that will turn nuclear at least as far as we're concerned vis a vis Paxtan. What's more Fauji Foundation knows it .

The danger as it exists today is if Paxtan offers its territory as a staging area for Chinese war machinery .

Be that as it may , given the way things are rapidly moving I've serious doubts Paxtan as it exists today will survive up until 2030.

Having said that we can't afford to let our guard down. Our task would be to accelerate this by increasing funding for the Taliban Afghanistan, TTP the Balochi Sarmachars & all those separatist organizations springing up in Paxtan. We can rest assured Fauji Foundation & the Paxtani awam will do the rest

I don't think Pak is going anywhere as long as it has nukes. And it will have nukes as long as we do not develop a military plan and then actually use that plan to take it away from them. And all of this is a tall order.

Even if there is no two front war because "it will go nuclear" the Indian Army can not rebalance its formations away from Western front to Eastern front because, like I said, this will require a change of equipment and training, which takes time. This is not like Air Force swinging between fronts. IA already has one Corps that is assigned a dual tasking, one on China front and one on Pak front, but that is only because both their taskings are in mountain terrain, so there is some overlap. Won't be the same for, say, X Corps or XXI corps moving to Himalayas.

Which is why we need to severly hamper Pak Army before we can conduct a rebalance that gives us enough units for offensive ground action above operational level into China.

 

[Azaad]

I don't think Pak is going anywhere as long as it has nukes. And it will have nukes as long as we do not develop a military plan and then actually use that plan to take it away from them. And all of this is a tall order.

Wasn't suggesting Paxtan is going anywhere as long as it has nukes or we break our heads trying to seek ways to capture their N arsenal. Was simply saying beyond a point , we'd nuke them, NFU be damned in a 2 front scenario.

Even if there is no two front war because "it will go nuclear" the Indian Army can not rebalance its formations away from Western front to Eastern front because, like I said, this will require a change of equipment and training, which takes time. This is not like Air Force swinging between fronts. IA already has one Corps that is assigned a dual tasking, one on China front and one on Pak front, but that is only because both their taskings are in mountain terrain, so there is some overlap. Won't be the same for, say, X Corps or XXI corps moving to Himalayas.

Which is why we need to severly hamper Pak Army before we can conduct a rebalance that gives us enough units for offensive ground action above operational level into China.

The Mountain Strike Corps has already been established though the true extent of it as it was envisaged in 2012 vis a vis what it is at present , I'm unaware of .

However given Modi's penchant for downsizing our armed forces beginning with the IA since he took office which resulted in the MSC being initially cancelled (?) to the IA suggesting they'd raise it from existing resources , I'm not sure where exactly do we stand on this one .

In any case by 2032 all those recruited under the old recruitment pattern will be out of the IA & it'd be full of Agniveer Volunteers.

How this plays out in mountain warfare itself a very demanding discipline which Army veterans themselves are of the opinion takes 2-3 years at the very minimum to adapt to whereas the tenure of an Agniveer volunteer being 4 years with only 25% intake is something that should attract our attention more IMO apart from the fact the IA is already some 2 lakh jawans down thanks to non recruitment during the 2 years of the COVID pandemic as well as retirements from the IA .

 

[Okabe Rintarou]

Wasn't suggesting Paxtan is going anywhere as long as it has nukes or we break our heads trying to seek ways to capture their N arsenal. Was simply saying beyond a point , we'd nuke them, NFU be damned in a 2 front scenario.

The Mountain Strike Corps has already been established though too what extent is it as it was envisaged in 2012 I'm unaware of .

However given Modi's penchant to downsizing our armed forces beginning with the IA since he took office which resulted in the MSC being initially cancelled (?) to the IA suggesting they'd raise it from existing resources I'm not sure where exactly do we stand on this one .

In any case by 2032 all those recruited under the old recruitment pattern will be out of the IA & it'd be full of Agniveer Volunteers.

How this plays out in mountain warfare itself a very demanding discipline which Army veterans themselves are of the opinion takes 2-3 years at the very minimum to adapt to whereas the tenure of an Agniveer volunteer being 4 years with only 25% intake is something that should attract our attention more IMO apart from the fact the IA is already some 2 lakh jawans down thanks to non recruitment during the 2 years of the COVID pandemic as well as retirements from the IA .

The MSC have been created, but they are only to be used as an operational reserve from what I've understood, because the Chinese have their GA deployed against every one of our Corps. Its kind of like how we are against Pak since 2020 rebalancing.

BTW, what even should our objective be in case we try to conduct a ground offensive into China? Entire Aksai Chin or part of it? Or cutting off Chumbi Valley? Something else? What threat will give the Chinese pause? I mean waving a flag in Lhasa ought to do it, but that's just my dumb fantasy.