Russian Ukrainian War

[GaudaNaresh]

Wait, wasn’t modi hyped to be the peace broker coupla months back?

Yes. Because in theory India makes the most sense as a peace-maker due to links to BOTH nations (though stronger to Russia but i cant think of a nation with equal relations with both rus & ukro before war/during this war-can anyone ?
But in reality, not gonna happen coz there is no way uncle Sam or Russia really do something that they dont want to but necessary compromise for peace kinda scenario - for those to work out, where pressure is needed on BOTh sides, the negotiator has to have more power than the two fighters...else...its just a charade and negotiator is front for the stronger fighter- which India will effectively become in reality.

 

[Blademaster]

This.....only works if Trump can have his way with Zelensky, bend him over a desk and get him to take it without lube till he agrees to give up Kherson, Zaphorizia and bits of Donetsk they still hold - they being Ukraine.
Coz these parts are officially annexed into Russia. Russia doesnt fuck around and has never fucked around since Peter the Great days or even earlier maybe, with its formal state procedures and claims.

At best war can stop at a point only when Russia controls at least what its formally annexed, with maybe the only exception being the city of Kherson & west of Dneiper Kherson oblast parts outta logistical compromise that Russian nationalists will swallow. But ceasefire with the rest - especially Zapho & Donestsk not completely taken ? No bueno, Rus doesnt work that way.
anyone who doesnt know this, is a fool.

The geostrategic outlook of Ukraine compels Russia to advance to the eastern banks of Dniper River all the way to Kiev in order to ensure a natural defensive barrier to completely discourage any NATO misadventure and any ultranationalist Ukrainian from thinking of starting another war with Russia.

Putin and Russia will give up taking Odessa and probably will give up Transnistria but demand safe passage for the Russians living there and having them resettled in the eastern part of Kherson areas.

Putin knows that the remaining part of Ukraine will join NATO once Trump leaves office. It is inevitable and Russia can’t do anything to stop that. So it needs a physical guarantee that NATO and Ukraine won’t attack Russian territory without incurring massive casualties and costs.

As for naval control of the Black Sea, it will be difficult and expensive for Russia because Russia would be combating drones and advanced surveillance. Russia will not win a conflict against NATO. Its only card preventing a conflict with NATO is its nuclear weapons. That means it can never be the instigator and has to withstand covert operations against Russia and terrorist attacks against Russia. Russia need to set up a no man’s land all the way from the north of Baltic Sea all the way to the Black Sea. It needs to make sure that Belorussia stay pro Russia which will not be easy because half of its population wants to join EU. If Belorussia goes, Russia is basically screwed and will lose Kalingrad because it will not be able to reinforce or resupply Kalingrad unless Russia takes over the Baltic states which is impossible because Belorussia (if it joined EU) will prevent that.

Putin needs to ensure that there is not another Maidan uprising in Minsk and that Russia can send in reinforcements and troops to keep Belorussia within the Russian camp and ensure that more than half of the population are pro-Russia.

 

[Blademaster]

Yes. Because in theory India makes the most sense as a peace-maker due to links to BOTH nations (though stronger to Russia but i cant think of a nation with equal relations with both rus & ukro before war/during this war-can anyone ?
But in reality, not gonna happen coz there is no way uncle Sam or Russia really do something that they dont want to but necessary compromise for peace kinda scenario - for those to work out, where pressure is needed on BOTh sides, the negotiator has to have more power than the two fighters...else...its just a charade and negotiator is front for the stronger fighter- which India will effectively become in reality.

Which is why I have advocated all along that India stay away from the conflict with a ten foot pole. Just making meaningless statements on about how peace needs to be restored blah blah and nod at everybody and shake hands with everyone and leave expeditiously with none the wiser.

 

[maximus777]

Which is why I have advocated all along that India stay away from the conflict with a ten foot pole. Just making meaningless statements on about how peace needs to be restored blah blah and nod at everybody and shake hands with everyone and leave expeditiously with none the wiser.

It's not our war and neither do we have the clout to stop one. So let dhandho take precedence over vishwaguru aspirations and engage in some war profiteering while engaging in the usual platitudes!

 

[Akim]

@Akim

remember when I used to say, the war is all about minerals, and was laughed at. be it here or in old forum some 2 years back... stands same still.


View: https://x.com/i/status/1886839828060287310

This is a proposition for Trump, who has no moral values and is only interested in profit.

 

[Soldier35]

An episode of a battle between two Ukrainian stormtroopers and one Russian soldier. The location of the shooting is not reported, the video is filmed and commented on by a Russian drone, but another unknown drone is also visible in the frame. As reported, the Russian stormtrooper captured a Ukrainian dugout. After that, Ukrainian servicemen tried to push it out of there. As a result of the battle, the Ukrainian stormtroopers retreated. The Russian soldier also later left the dugout due to shelling by Ukrainian artillery. As reported, the positions were later captured by Russian units, but this is not shown in the video.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBBM28vnWXQ

 

[WW2historian]

This is a proposition for Trump, who has no moral values and is only interested in profit.

Yes, but there is more. Trump doesn't give too much about profit. He's become more and more bored with being a billionaire his whole life. He cares about power and being perceived as unique genius. Bottom line is he's weak because he has no personal power. Trump's countless indulgences weakened him beyond repair.

 

[GaudaNaresh]

The geostrategic outlook of Ukraine compels Russia to advance to the eastern banks of Dniper River all the way to Kiev in order to ensure a natural defensive barrier to completely discourage any NATO misadventure and any ultranationalist Ukrainian from thinking of starting another war with Russia.

Putin and Russia will give up taking Odessa and probably will give up Transnistria but demand safe passage for the Russians living there and having them resettled in the eastern part of Kherson areas.

Putin knows that the remaining part of Ukraine will join NATO once Trump leaves office. It is inevitable and Russia can’t do anything to stop that. So it needs a physical guarantee that NATO and Ukraine won’t attack Russian territory without incurring massive casualties and costs.

As for naval control of the Black Sea, it will be difficult and expensive for Russia because Russia would be combating drones and advanced surveillance. Russia will not win a conflict against NATO. Its only card preventing a conflict with NATO is its nuclear weapons. That means it can never be the instigator and has to withstand covert operations against Russia and terrorist attacks against Russia. Russia need to set up a no man’s land all the way from the north of Baltic Sea all the way to the Black Sea. It needs to make sure that Belorussia stay pro Russia which will not be easy because half of its population wants to join EU. If Belorussia goes, Russia is basically screwed and will lose Kalingrad because it will not be able to reinforce or resupply Kalingrad unless Russia takes over the Baltic states which is impossible because Belorussia (if it joined EU) will prevent that.

Putin needs to ensure that there is not another Maidan uprising in Minsk and that Russia can send in reinforcements and troops to keep Belorussia within the Russian camp and ensure that more than half of the population are pro-Russia.

you are more or less correct on everything in this post, except one.
The naval supremacy game of Black Sea is simple and has remained a constant for the last 2000 years : he who controls crimea, controls the black sea. the end.

Belorussia wont go- Belorussians are pretty much the only non-Russian ethnicity of former USSR who are more fluent in russian than belorussian.

 

[Blademaster]

you are more or less correct on everything in this post, except one.
The naval supremacy game of Black Sea is simple and has remained a constant for the last 2000 years : he who controls crimea, controls the black sea. the end.

Belorussia wont go- Belorussians are pretty much the only non-Russian ethnicity of former USSR who are more fluent in russian than belorussian.

That’s what they said about Ukraine. Ukraine was practically called the Little Russia and second largest group of Slavic population. Yet somehow US managed to turn Ukraine against Russia. It can do the same thing to Belorussia. Russia has to constantly stay vigilant against such threats in Belorussia.

As for controlling Black Sea, well it is not necessary to have Crimea to control Black Sea because today’s technology has changed the paradigm for control of the Black Sea.

 

[Hari Sud]

Is the War in Ukraine Over?

The search for a solution to prevent Vladimir Putin from claiming victory in Ukraine is ongoing. While intense fighting on the front has largely paused, occasional skirmishes continue.

A major factor in the slowdown is President Trump’s return to the White House. His refusal to fully endorse NATO, both as a military alliance and in its support for Ukraine, has shifted the dynamics. Trump insists that Europe should fund its own wars and seeks to reduce American involvement in European affairs.

The first step toward resolution would be allowing the Ukrainian people to voice their will through elections. Next comes the question of territorial control what land, if any, should remain with Russia? Historically, until 80 years ago, these territories were part of Russia before being administratively transferred to Ukraine. Now, Russia wants them back.

Holding elections is the critical first step, followed by negotiations. The process may take years, but it could yield lasting results. Meanwhile, NATO now significantly weakened without full U.S. support will have to determine Ukraine’s membership on its own.

 

[shade2]

That’s what they said about Ukraine. Ukraine was practically called the Little Russia and second largest group of Slavic population. Yet somehow US managed to turn Ukraine against Russia. It can do the same thing to Belorussia. Russia has to constantly stay vigilant against such threats in Belorussia.

As for controlling Black Sea, well it is not necessary to have Crimea to control Black Sea because today’s technology has changed the paradigm for control of the Black Sea.

It's already happened.

Lukashenko was cheating with the EU goras on the sly.
For this bewafayi he was rewarded by the EU goras with the regime change protests of 2021

2020–2021 Belarusian protests - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Fortunately for him, he ran to his master Putin, perhaps apologized profusely, and the Rooskies helped him to crush these protests prevent a Maidan 2.0.

As with China crushing the Tiananmen Square protests we know that once these "protests" are defeated, they get no sequel, all human rights, NGOs, students and all other USAID sucklers get their just deserts

 

[Blademaster]

Is the War in Ukraine Over?

The search for a solution to prevent Vladimir Putin from claiming victory in Ukraine is ongoing. While intense fighting on the front has largely paused, occasional skirmishes continue.

A major factor in the slowdown is President Trump’s return to the White House. His refusal to fully endorse NATO, both as a military alliance and in its support for Ukraine, has shifted the dynamics. Trump insists that Europe should fund its own wars and seeks to reduce American involvement in European affairs.

The first step toward resolution would be allowing the Ukrainian people to voice their will through elections. Next comes the question of territorial control what land, if any, should remain with Russia? Historically, until 80 years ago, these territories were part of Russia before being administratively transferred to Ukraine. Now, Russia wants them back.

Holding elections is the critical first step, followed by negotiations. The process may take years, but it could yield lasting results. Meanwhile, NATO now significantly weakened without full U.S. support will have to determine Ukraine’s membership on its own.

There’s no way Ukraine can have a legitimate election right now.

 

[Blademaster]

It's already happened.

Lukashenko was cheating with the EU goras on the sly.
For this bewafayi he was rewarded by the EU goras with the regime change protests of 2021

2020–2021 Belarusian protests - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

View attachment 24188

Fortunately for him, he ran to his master Putin, perhaps apologized profusely, and the Rooskies helped him to crush these protests prevent a Maidan 2.0.

As with China crushing the Tiananmen Square protests we know that once these "protests" are defeated, they get no sequel, all human rights, NGOs, students and all other USAID sucklers get their just deserts

Doesn’t mean it can’t happen again.

 

[shade2]

Doesn’t mean it can’t happen again.

It won't, the elements behind this are all uprooted and burnt once the game is up and the ruling regime doesn't fear muh sanctions

As with China crushing the Tiananmen Square protests we know that once these "protests" are defeated, they get no sequel, all human rights, NGOs, students and all other USAID sucklers get their just deserts

Putin himself dealt with this in 2012 when he won the election in his country again, applied danda to regime-change artists on the street and tossed out regime-change orchestrators from windows.

2012 is the year when the West went sour on Russia because Putin didn't get regime changed, Maidan 2014, Crimea grab and the invasion of 2022 only follows from that

 

[WW2historian]

Yes, but there is more. Trump doesn't give too much about profit. He's become more and more bored with being a billionaire his whole life. He cares about power and being perceived as unique genius. Bottom line is he's weak because he has no personal power. Trump's countless indulgences weakened him beyond repair.

I don't think Trump is the sharpest tool in the shed. He is being smart about covering his own ass and rightly blaming Zelensky and Ukraine of stealing from the US people. Trump ordering a full audit is smart, it will show how corrupt Ukraine is and US citizens will be so fucking pissed off that their hard earned money was stolen from them that support will completely collapse for Ukraine. So people won't blame Trump for giving up on Ukraine and cutting support. Trump is playing some games, like him making Ukraine pay the US for minerals. It seems like he knows this can't happen because most of these minerals are in Russian held Ukraine areas. This could get interesting.

 

[Soldier35]

The Ukrainian army has launched a new February counteroffensive in the Kursk region. This is the second counter offensive of the Ukrainian army, the first in January was previously shown. Fighting is taking place in the area of the settlements of Ulanok, Makhnovka, Konopelka. The goal of the offensive is to enter the rear of Russian troops and preserve the supply lines of the troops. There are no results yet, but there is video of drone attacks. Russian troops are using classic FPV drones and drones "Prince Vandal Novgorodsky", controlled by fiber optic cable. As reported, the drones attacked T-64 tanks, the Wisent 1 MC engineering vehicle, Cougar H armored vehicles, the M113 armored personnel carrier, and the Kozak armored vehicle and other equipment. At the moment, this is not complete data.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEwGkRB75_c

 

[GaudaNaresh]

That’s what they said about Ukraine. Ukraine was practically called the Little Russia and second largest group of Slavic population. Yet somehow US managed to turn Ukraine against Russia. It can do the same thing to Belorussia. Russia has to constantly stay vigilant against such threats in Belorussia.

As for controlling Black Sea, well it is not necessary to have Crimea to control Black Sea because today’s technology has changed the paradigm for control of the Black Sea.

well the difference is, ukrainians dont speak/didnt speak russian more than ukrainian. That is far more cultural integration.

Technology rarely overrules geography- todays technology yeilds same result as that of 2000years ago: naval base in crimea =commanding zone of control over the black sea better than anywhere else.

Edit: I will summarize why 2000 years ago vs today, black sea power projection is still the same : Own crimea =win.
Pre-modern times, especially in the mediterranean, carvel boats were more common and black sea was very bad for carvel boats ( carvel vs clinker for premodern boats is dependent on how roiling the seas are & how far you have to go from coast, aka face mega-waves of deep sea. more roiling sea + going deep into a roiling sea = clinker, calmer seas/more coast hugging = carvel), since black sea is a bit like the north sea- its hella choppy for some seasons.
This meant that you either wanna hug the coast or scoot across the narrowest points of the open sea to minimise hull damage of carvel boats ( aka roman, medieval european boats of the mediterranean,etc).

Well, the black sea is basically a rectangle with a tumor in the middle. That tumor is crimea. So base in crimea = easiest access to all the coast of black sea with least damage/risk of crossing/time of crossing.

In modern times these factors are all gone, but power projection of seas are STILL land dependent in immediate vicinities and Crimea means you get to put anti-shipping batteries in crimea for cruise missiles that cover entire black sea optimally. Which again, means, he who controls crimea = controls black sea.

Ofcourse, it isnt as cut and dried now as it was in the past because everyone in theory can put CM batteries on their coast and black sea isnt that big, but it still doesnt change the fact that he who holds crimea still enjoys apex spot of power over ships in black sea.

 

[Soldier35]

High-quality footage of a strike by a Russian FPV drone "Prince Vandal Novgorodsky", controlled via fiber optic cable, on a Ukrainian self-propelled gun Panzerhaubitze 2000. The Pzh 2000 self-propelled gun is equipped with a 155-mm cannon and has been produced in Germany since 1998, information about it is on the channel. The video was filmed near the village of Fedorovka, for an unknown reason, the Pzh 2000 self-propelled artillery gun ended up at the front line, at a distance of 8 km. Perhaps this is due to the lack of long-range active-reactive projectiles V-LAP or M982 Excalibur projectiles. Naturally, the Pzh 2000 self-propelled gun was immediately noticed by Russian drone operators. Judging by the video, the FPV drone "Vandal" struck the aft part of the howitzer, the place where the shells are stored. As a result of an attack by a Russian FPV drone, ammunition exploded in a Ukrainian Pzh 2000 howitzer.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-CHDSr5vqs

 

[WW2historian]

well the difference is, ukrainians dont speak/didnt speak russian more than ukrainian. That is far more cultural integration.

Technology rarely overrules geography- todays technology yeilds same result as that of 2000years ago: naval base in crimea =commanding zone of control over the black sea better than anywhere else.

Edit: I will summarize why 2000 years ago vs today, black sea power projection is still the same : Own crimea =win.
Pre-modern times, especially in the mediterranean, carvel boats were more common and black sea was very bad for carvel boats ( carvel vs clinker for premodern boats is dependent on how roiling the seas are & how far you have to go from coast, aka face mega-waves of deep sea. more roiling sea + going deep into a roiling sea = clinker, calmer seas/more coast hugging = carvel), since black sea is a bit like the north sea- its hella choppy for some seasons.
This meant that you either wanna hug the coast or scoot across the narrowest points of the open sea to minimise hull damage of carvel boats ( aka roman, medieval european boats of the mediterranean,etc).

Well, the black sea is basically a rectangle with a tumor in the middle. That tumor is crimea. So base in crimea = easiest access to all the coast of black sea with least damage/risk of crossing/time of crossing.

In modern times these factors are all gone, but power projection of seas are STILL land dependent in immediate vicinities and Crimea means you get to put anti-shipping batteries in crimea for cruise missiles that cover entire black sea optimally. Which again, means, he who controls crimea = controls black sea.

Ofcourse, it isnt as cut and dried now as it was in the past because everyone in theory can put CM batteries on their coast and black sea isnt that big, but it still doesnt change the fact that he who holds crimea still enjoys apex spot of power over ships in black sea.

"Own Crimea=win" There is no doubt about that. The Germans had Crimea cut off (but not on the sea) and also had stronger army and the best General in WW2, Manstein in charge of taking Crimea. However they had a bitch of a time taking Crimea. Although they eventually took it, I believe it was a Pyrrhic and weakened Germany. To take Crimea and hold it, the Germans needed to first fully concentrate on taking the oil fields in the Caucasus because that would've cut off Crimea mostly for resupply from the sea. That would've made it easier to take Crimea without huge losses. The fact that the idiot Ukrainians tried to take Crimea showed just how frigging stupid they are.