Russian Ukrainian War

[GaudaNaresh]

Wait, wasn’t modi hyped to be the peace broker coupla months back?

Yes. Because in theory India makes the most sense as a peace-maker due to links to BOTH nations (though stronger to Russia but i cant think of a nation with equal relations with both rus & ukro before war/during this war-can anyone ?
But in reality, not gonna happen coz there is no way uncle Sam or Russia really do something that they dont want to but necessary compromise for peace kinda scenario - for those to work out, where pressure is needed on BOTh sides, the negotiator has to have more power than the two fighters...else...its just a charade and negotiator is front for the stronger fighter- which India will effectively become in reality.

 

[Blademaster]

This.....only works if Trump can have his way with Zelensky, bend him over a desk and get him to take it without lube till he agrees to give up Kherson, Zaphorizia and bits of Donetsk they still hold - they being Ukraine.
Coz these parts are officially annexed into Russia. Russia doesnt fuck around and has never fucked around since Peter the Great days or even earlier maybe, with its formal state procedures and claims.

At best war can stop at a point only when Russia controls at least what its formally annexed, with maybe the only exception being the city of Kherson & west of Dneiper Kherson oblast parts outta logistical compromise that Russian nationalists will swallow. But ceasefire with the rest - especially Zapho & Donestsk not completely taken ? No bueno, Rus doesnt work that way.
anyone who doesnt know this, is a fool.

The geostrategic outlook of Ukraine compels Russia to advance to the eastern banks of Dniper River all the way to Kiev in order to ensure a natural defensive barrier to completely discourage any NATO misadventure and any ultranationalist Ukrainian from thinking of starting another war with Russia.

Putin and Russia will give up taking Odessa and probably will give up Transnistria but demand safe passage for the Russians living there and having them resettled in the eastern part of Kherson areas.

Putin knows that the remaining part of Ukraine will join NATO once Trump leaves office. It is inevitable and Russia can’t do anything to stop that. So it needs a physical guarantee that NATO and Ukraine won’t attack Russian territory without incurring massive casualties and costs.

As for naval control of the Black Sea, it will be difficult and expensive for Russia because Russia would be combating drones and advanced surveillance. Russia will not win a conflict against NATO. Its only card preventing a conflict with NATO is its nuclear weapons. That means it can never be the instigator and has to withstand covert operations against Russia and terrorist attacks against Russia. Russia need to set up a no man’s land all the way from the north of Baltic Sea all the way to the Black Sea. It needs to make sure that Belorussia stay pro Russia which will not be easy because half of its population wants to join EU. If Belorussia goes, Russia is basically screwed and will lose Kalingrad because it will not be able to reinforce or resupply Kalingrad unless Russia takes over the Baltic states which is impossible because Belorussia (if it joined EU) will prevent that.

Putin needs to ensure that there is not another Maidan uprising in Minsk and that Russia can send in reinforcements and troops to keep Belorussia within the Russian camp and ensure that more than half of the population are pro-Russia.

 

[Blademaster]

Yes. Because in theory India makes the most sense as a peace-maker due to links to BOTH nations (though stronger to Russia but i cant think of a nation with equal relations with both rus & ukro before war/during this war-can anyone ?
But in reality, not gonna happen coz there is no way uncle Sam or Russia really do something that they dont want to but necessary compromise for peace kinda scenario - for those to work out, where pressure is needed on BOTh sides, the negotiator has to have more power than the two fighters...else...its just a charade and negotiator is front for the stronger fighter- which India will effectively become in reality.

Which is why I have advocated all along that India stay away from the conflict with a ten foot pole. Just making meaningless statements on about how peace needs to be restored blah blah and nod at everybody and shake hands with everyone and leave expeditiously with none the wiser.

 

[maximus777]

Which is why I have advocated all along that India stay away from the conflict with a ten foot pole. Just making meaningless statements on about how peace needs to be restored blah blah and nod at everybody and shake hands with everyone and leave expeditiously with none the wiser.

It's not our war and neither do we have the clout to stop one. So let dhandho take precedence over vishwaguru aspirations and engage in some war profiteering while engaging in the usual platitudes!