my guess would be that beedi advisors want to use GoI as stepping stone to remain in power i.e delay elections till they form their own political outfit, hence the constant provocations. these folks think in binaries, they probably calculated that since GoI is pro-SHW, so GoI would condemn their interim govt.
they didn't realise that even pakiland uses this tactic every few years, that GoI does not recognise pak as a country. our response is India has an embassy in your country, what more legitimacy do you want.
their original plans were probably dashed when modi invited their chief advisor to represent beedi in voice of global south conference, invitation meant GoI is not going to publicly oppose their interim govt.
i would be reading their provocations as desperation. more the provocations, more the desperation within their advisors.
historically usurpers are insecure and have a tendency to over play their hand.
There needs to be a broader discussion on how to deal with belligerent neighbors.
Should our foreign policy and/our foreign relations remain hostage to whims of the government of that country forever?
Or should there be a consensus among them that becoming hostile to India will harm them and make their own governance untenable.
If you want the former, then whatever is happening now is the right way. Keep increasing tolerance of the humiliation fetish we have, earlier from bigger powers; now from dirty shitholes too.
But if you want the latter, then you have to show danda. You have to
prove that being hostile to India has costs attached and it will make their own governance untenable. Let
any government that comes to power in Bangladesh have it in their own strategic calculation automatically. Just like we have to deal with them, they too have to deal with us.
If there are no consequences now, there is a bigger probability whosoever comes to power next barring Hasina, will continue the same. Because at the end of day it's a 90% jihadi population country. (Being anti-India sells like hot cakes)
No amount of appeasement will change that, just like it did not change the nature of jihadi population in Maldives. The government changed it's mood, & that's all we want.
It can turn out to be a strategic blunder on our part if we let this government's belligerence go unchecked.
We have to get over this feeling that since we have spent 15+ years with a seemingly pro-India Bangladesh, we are going to rock the apple cart if we start showing danda. Our policies should be dynamic, no heavens will fall if we deal with an anti-India Bangladesh as is required.
I am not even asking to go full bazinga, just a graded response, we have so many strings that we can pull. Start with protests on the land ports and block them for ~2-3 months. Notice their behaviour. They have double digit food inflation. Let their government whine abba dabba jabba when people notice the cost of their plates increasing. Inflation is one sure shot method to make any government unpopular! Make it costly for every anti-India government that comes to power.
What are the risks attached? At max, they will start fomenting terrorism in India.
But if they are fomenting terrorism inside India just because we don't want to send food items, are we even doing trade or paying jizya to them?