U.S China Cold War 2.0

[sameer]

Is Dolund bhai reading this thread?

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/u-s-plans-to-use-tariff-negotiations-to-isolate-china-177d1528?mod=e2twp

Dolund bhai realized it last week only. The bond market yields were rising very rapidly that day, within a single day they rose by 0.5%, and he was forced to back down from the reciprocal tariffs.

Trump gets roughed up by a bigger bully: the bond market - The Boston Globe

Last week’s sell-off of US Treasuries, the $36 trillion market that is the backbone of the global financial system, signaled waning faith among investors in the country's economic supremacy.

www.bostonglobe.com

Anyway, since he weakened his position, made enemies with the EU, he doesn't have too many countries to turn to. Our Babooze now have the bandwidth to give less concessions to the yanks.

 

[Sanglamorre]

Is Dolund bhai reading this thread?

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/u-s-plans-to-use-tariff-negotiations-to-isolate-china-177d1528?mod=e2twp

Maybe Kash and Ramaswamy is.

 

[Hari Sud]

Tame China now or never

I hope President Trump is not looking for ways to end the U.S.-China tariff war prematurely. There’s a growing perception that he may be exploring options through intermediaries to resolve the conflict. God forbid that happens—such a move would allow China to claim victory, making future negotiations even more difficult.

For heaven’s sake, if America has come this far, they must see it through to its logical conclusion. A baseline level of tariffs should remain in place to encourage the development of alternative supply chains and boost domestic manufacturing. Going forward, no more than 50% of any critical products should be sourced from China. This would reduce their cash flow and weaken their ability to intimidate neighbouring countries.

America must stay the course. America should not give up.

 

[Azaad]

View: https://twitter.com/IndustrlPolicy/status/1912901883645079895?s=19


View: https://twitter.com/IndustrlPolicy/status/1912903221175103503?s=19


View: https://twitter.com/IndustrlPolicy/status/1912903990368436327?s=19


View: https://twitter.com/IndustrlPolicy/status/1912904591898976734?s=19

 

[DancingPeacock]

View: https://twitter.com/IndustrlPolicy/status/1912901883645079895?s=19


View: https://twitter.com/IndustrlPolicy/status/1912903221175103503?s=19


View: https://twitter.com/IndustrlPolicy/status/1912903990368436327?s=19


View: https://twitter.com/IndustrlPolicy/status/1912904591898976734?s=19

I really don't get these Sino bots arguments, its quite simple they say- Chong will trade with ASEAN+Asia decoupling from America, but ding ding- where has been those ASEAN+Bangladesh, Lanka, Japan, Korea and all others Asia getting their surplus from?

Its quite simple- if everyone is hell bent on export led economy someone has to absorb that right? USA was sucker all these years, unless China builds actual supply chains in those countries and absorb those like USA does. I don't understand how China will do that.

 

[Azaad]

View: https://twitter.com/IndustrlPolicy/status/1912424004842868804?s=19


View: https://twitter.com/IndustrlPolicy/status/1912426452248600865?s=19


View: https://twitter.com/IndustrlPolicy/status/1912426674488008928?s=19

Why's China destined to lose the trade war even if it doesn't seem so in the short term?!

 

[ezsasa]

based on commentary and reactions on murican intelligentsia about nuclear escalation in the aftermath of op sindoor, can we arrive at the conclusion that murican establishment within the current framework will go to any lengths to avoid direct conflict with russia or china ?

 

[LETHALFORCE]

View: https://twitter.com/IndustrlPolicy/status/1912424004842868804?s=19


View: https://twitter.com/IndustrlPolicy/status/1912426452248600865?s=19


View: https://twitter.com/IndustrlPolicy/status/1912426674488008928?s=19

Why's China destined to lose the trade war even if it doesn't seem so in the short term?!

How is China losing the trade war???? Their economy is recovering US is in recession. Not sure
Why you have this view??? The trade war will automatically be lost if when India China and Russia relations improve

 

[Azaad]

How is China losing the trade war???? Their economy is recovering US is in recession. Not sure
Why you have this view??? The trade war will automatically be lost if when India China and Russia relations improve

To sum up the tweets it's called being a victim of one's own successes. There are many other factors at play as well which dictate China's not winning the trade war. The very fact they agreed to a truce to Trump & levied 10% tariff on US imports while agreeing to a 30% tariff to their exports to the US should signify something.

If you're truly negotiating from a position of strength which was the Chinese public position all along why would they agree to this truce at those terms ?!

 

[Azaad]

based on commentary and reactions on murican intelligentsia about nuclear escalation in the aftermath of op sindoor, can we arrive at the conclusion that murican establishment within the current framework will go to any lengths to avoid direct conflict with russia or china ?

Alternatively are the Americans able to control the escalation matrix or deal conter force & counter value strikes to their opponents while preventing such an occurrence in their own land ?

 

[ezsasa]

Alternatively are the Americans able to control the escalation matrix or deal conter force & counter value strikes to their opponents while preventing such an occurrence in their own land ?

yes they can, at current levels for foreseeable future, no military can come close to murican shores physically, and chini/russian nuke ICBMs cannot land close to murican territory without getting shot down.

anti-hypersonic systems are also in the works.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

To sum up the tweets it's called being a victim of one's own successes. There are many other factors at play as well which dictate China's not winning the trade war. The very fact they agreed to a truce to Trump & levied 10% tariff on US imports while agreeing to a 30% tariff to their exports to the US should signify something.

If you're truly negotiating from a position of strength which was the Chinese public position all along why would they agree to this truce at those terms ?!

Chinese are buying time in 5 years the roles will be reversed. No way will USA be able to recapture the monopoly industries they had in the past. Eg semiconductors Chinese will wear American down until their industrial capability is ready.

 

[Azaad]

yes they can, at current levels for foreseeable future, no military can come close to murican shores physically, and chini/russian nuke ICBMs cannot land close to murican territory without getting shot down.

anti-hypersonic systems are also in the works.

Then you have your answer as to the reason the US could well intervene on the side of Taiwan when China decides to go in for an invasion.

Such pressing needs don't occur in the European theater as far as Russia goes. If it does the thinking at least as far as the current administration goes is Europe should be able to counter it .

In any case it's virtually impossible for the US to be present in full force in both theatres. This of course doesn't factor in another theatre of operations in the ME which will definitely open up then or even a sub theater in the Korean peninsula .

Chinese are buying time in 5 years the roles will be reversed. No way will USA be able to recapture the monopoly industries they had in the past. Eg semiconductors Chinese will wear American down until their industrial capability is ready.

The US realises it cannot get 100% of all the industries it & the west has relocated to China. That's not the aim either. The idea would be to get the hi tech industries relocated to the US with the rest re located to zones outside of the Chinese sphere of influence viz ASEAN & by that I also mean Chinese industries.

The US can only do so with the EU's co operation. Right now instead of the EU & China being in a trade war , it's the US which has got into one with the EU .

Hopefully better sense prevails on both sides & they arrive at a mutually beneficial agreement before co ordinating their strategies on China.

Give it a year or so & you'd see that happening. The most important event towards such an accomodation is a CF in Ukraine. Right now all the participants in it - Russia , Ukraine , NATO in Europe & the US are in 4 cardinal directions.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

If you're truly negotiating from a position of strength which was the Chinese public position all along why would they agree to this truce at those terms ?!

Simple fact is many of the larger countries want US to view them as equals and want that respect but US never will