Having given this much thought over the past 4 + years I've come to the following conclusions fwiw -
The Chinese will prosecute a war on both India & Taiwan principally because they're in a state of hubris , the kind the IJA was in the late 30s in spite of counsel asking them to abandon their plans of waging war on the US. Instead the IJA & it's supporters went after those advocating restraint assassinating , imprisoning disappearing & intimidating them . The CCP thinks like the IJA before it their time in the world has come & the west has entered a period of terminal decline which would have been true if the CCP followed Deng's dictum of hiding their strength & biding their time sticking to their earlier time table of retaking Taiwan in the late 2040s to coincide with the centenary of the PRC but that's another story.
There's another reason the CCP would initiate hostilities which is the state of trade relations with the west . With the Chinese economy in some trouble what with domestic consumption being flat in spite of stimulus packages , their entire economy being built around export & most importantly the dwindling prospects for foreign companies in China vis a vis the severe onslaught these companies are facing from the Chinese in their own home countries will neither go un noticed nor unpunished by the west . The arrival of Trump worsens an already bad scenario.
This in turn will severely dent the CCP within China who'd then turn to nationalism to boost their popularity & quell dissent at home . I anticipate this story to play out throughout Trump's term in office . This is also coincides with the successful modernization & theater ization plans towards the fag end of this decade.
As far as India goes , IMO they will try their luck in what they believe will be a short sharp war to gauge their war preparations before embarking on their campaign against Taiwan in some sort of trailer before the movie. This is where all the CCP's calculations could go horribly wrong.
The war against India will be waged in a two pronged manner - one would be on the LAC & the other would be usage of everything they've in their arsenal from cyber warfare , ISR thru space assets , PLARF , PLAAF etc targeting our logistical & industrial network say upto 100 -200 kms behind the LAC .
If Chinese objectives aren't met within say 2-3 months the CCP will get desperate. That's where I see things get out of hand as the war on the LAC will be a classic war of attrition whereas if our logistical network is primarily focused within the LAC itself inside the mountains which we seem to be undertaking apart from developing infrastructure we can frustrate the PLA's attempts at achieving their goals in quick time. The CCP will then start targeting our population & industrial centres deep within the mainland in a graduated manner not just to demoralize us but to destroy our centres of production aiding the war .
They can achieve this by full utilisation of their PLAAF but more than that thru their PLARF . Please do note that Delhi is not more than 500 kms from the LAC & this is true for most population & industrial centres in N & E India including the NE . Unfortunately our dhotis aren't factoring this part in their calculations.
You've to understand the psyche behind the reason the CCP would resort to such moves . It helps to note the consequences of failure for all the principal players involved in this conflict. Xi Jinping has made enemies out of all the factions within the CCP & their supporting arms be it the bureaucracy the government business etc . Even a stalemate will be perceived as a loss by these elements & the knives will be out for Xi . Since he exercises absolute power as in the time of Mao unlike the consultative leadership of Deng & all subsequent leaders post Deng up until Xi , all success would be to his credit . So would all failures. For a person of his stature failure even if it's a stalemate it'd be seen as a failure resulting in a bullet in his head & that of his coterie followed by burial in unmarked graves . Long story short , Modi or whoever is in his shoes fails , he loses the election & spends the rest of his time in & out of office in humiliation & ignominy unless of course he has a stroke like Chacha & the narrative immediately changes from what a xutia to poor chap the Chinese untrustworthy buggers betrayed him just like they did 60 years ago . If Xi loses , I've already detailed what follows.
The dhotis think our Nuclear Weapons will deter the Chinese from escalating , one reason you're seeing / have seen a flurry of tests of BMs & construction / planning of other such vectors. I fear the Chinese will call our bluff which in the absence of a conventional deterrence be it in the form of the IAF or an huge inventory of IRBMs / CMs will not only come back to haunt us but force the leadership then to actually undertake their threat. For in order to carry out our threat we'd have to target one HV location of theirs with say 1 NW in response to their conventional weapon onslaught. Do you see it happening ? If it does they'd retaliate disproportionately . Then what ?
As always there are no easy solutions today & 56" has only made a bad situation he's inherited w.r t defence worse . Lots of other factors going against us which are too many to list but trust you get the gist . Just my 2 cents.
