and from a different perspective..
- every word and sentence that comes out in a MEA related readout is very deliberate, they have people dedicated to writing and approving drafts for outgoing communication. they could have chosen not to publish that sentence, but they did not. if PMO and MEA added some sentence, it is very deliberate.
- by choosing to include the sentence on BD minorities and U.S not including this in their readout. our MEA has put a marker in 2024 and is telling our historians and future practitioners, U.S policy hasn't moved that much since 50 years on this matter. this will be later be interpreted by future Indian policy practitioners as per circumstances of their day.
- future foreign policy academics/historians will not look thru social chatter to understand the state of affairs of the past, good ones will go thru official statements of the past, bad ones will rely on opeds of the past.
Regarding this entire imbroglio in BD , I deliberately stayed away from those threads so as to not add anything to the chatter & fill in countless pages indulging in wild speculation besides venting my spleen & in the hope that within a span of a month or 2 a more clear picture will emerge.
Unfortunately nearly a month down the line the situation is getting even more muddled. For instance how many of us out here knew BD had approved China's plans in 2017 to construct a submarine pen to house 6-7 subs at an upcoming Naval base near Cox's Bazaar IIRC which was built last March - the BNS Shaikh Haseena .
Do we understand that BD intends to have a fleet of 6 submarines in the near future or is this subterfuge to get the PLAN in ? In the event St Martin's Island the purported place which the US was interested in is totally unsuitable for a base . However the issue remains that the US is interested in a Naval cum Aircraft Base in BD.
Was the US asking for a quid pro quo in the light of the PLAN getting a foothold there which SHW obviously denied them ? What was India's reaction to the base the Chinese built ostensibly for the BDN ? On the surface there seems nothing amiss in the Modi administration's relationship with the SHW government .
Now the issue is with SHW gone & BDs economy deteriorating , will the BD Army acquiesce to US demands. There's a very good chance it might happen. However , how will the Islamists treat such a move ? Assuming the US buys them out , it's no longer a case of the JeI monopolising the Islamists cause in BD anymore .
A lot of even more extreme players have cropped up who may not be pliable to US manoeuvres or aligned with the JeI way of thinking . Moreover it's not as if the Awami League is both - down & OUT . Neither will the Chinese sit back & be a passive observer , nor will we ?
If such a base can have the Chinese worried , It's a even bigger problem for us. We already have US personnel prying our bases under the pretext of preventing misuse of defence equipment of US origin they've sold us like the P-8i , INS Jalashwa , the few Predators we've taken on lease etc . With the slew of agreements we've signed previously & just now , their intrusion into our defence establishment will grow .
How exactly did the Indian establishment react behind closed doors to the US mounting a campaign to oust SHW before & after the elections ? Apart from a few customary statements from the MEA there was nothing of note in the public domain.
I've a gut feeling BD will become a real mess going forward on both the political & economic fronts becoming a playground for competing interests with disastrous consequences for themselves & us .