Documents show U.S. set in motion plan to oust Hasina
NEW DELHI:
Senior American officials who oversaw the program included Chris Murphy, Sumona Guha, Donald Lu, Sarah Margon and Francisco Bencosme.
The plan to remove Sheikh Hasina as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh was set in motion in early 2019, documents provided to The Sunday Guardian indicate, and as is being claimed by her, it was executed by government funded agencies operating from the United States.
After Mongolia (1996), Haiti (2001) and Uganda (2021), Bangladesh became the latest victory for the US-based International Republican Institute (IRI), which was successfully able to bring about a regime change in Dhaka.
The IRI, as per internal documents provided to The Sunday Guardian show, was implementing the broader objectives of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The documents also show how the project was necessary to counter-balance India’s “interference”.
The Washington-based IRI’s stated objective is to “promote democracy through supporting democratic institutions, political parties, civil society, and electoral processes” and it serves as an implementing partner for USAID funded projects aimed at enhancing democratic governance. The IRI is one of the four core institutes of NED, alongside the National Democratic Institute (NDI), the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), and the Solidarity Center.
Similarly, NED provides grants to IRI for various projects aimed at “strengthening democratic institutions and processes”. While NED is a private, non-profit organization established in 1983, funded primarily by the US Congress that operates independently from the US government while receiving annual appropriations through the Department of State, the USAID is a government agency responsible for administering foreign aid and development assistance.
In March 2019, IRI, after receiving the grant for its activities from USAID and NED, started the process of execution of a program to bring about a regime change in Dhaka.
The said program was named as “Promoting Accountability, Inclusivity, and Resiliency Support Program” (PAIRS) and it ran for 22 months, till January 2021.
IRI stated that this program was needed “To enhance the political participation of Bangladesh citizens and amplify anti-authoritarianism voices” for which “IRI implemented a broad-based social empowerment project that fostered and expanded citizen-centered, local and non-traditional forums for political engagement.”
For this, it issued “11 advocacy grants to artists, musicians, performers or organizations that created 225 art products addressing political and social issues that were viewed nearly 400,000 times; supported three civil society organizations (CSOs) from LGBTI, Bihari and ethnic communities to train 77 activists and engage 326 citizens to develop 43 specific policy demands, which were proposed before 65 government officials; and conducted community-specific quantitative and qualitative research, including three focus group reports and the largest published survey of LGBTI people in Bangladesh.”
Incidentally, on 16 March, the National Democratic Institute (NDI), another Washington-based organization and the IRI’s Technical Assessment Mission (TAM) released a report on the 2024 national election which was won by Sheikh Hasina. The said report was released after the same organization had run a PAIRS campaign for 22 months.
The report claimed that the 2024 election period, including the campaign period, election day and immediate aftermath, had less physical and online violence compared to previous election cycles, primarily due to the absence of nationwide partisan competition and the state’s increased focus on election security. It further stated that the quality of the January election was undermined by incidents of state, ruling party, and opposition violence, as well as a pre-election environment characterized by increased political polarization, violence among political actors, contracting civic space, and worsening freedoms of expression and association.
The IRI, while talking about its PAIRS program, stated that the Covid-19 pandemic had the potential to destabilise the Sheikh Hasina government but that did not happen as the death rates remained low and the economy recovered despite challenges.
“BNP remains marginal, and the Awami League’s power is undiminished. However, the BNP is still the most possible party to drive a power shift in the future. The health and economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic had the potential to destabilize Bangladesh’s politics. However, death rates in Bangladesh remained low and the economy recovered despite dire projections.”
Similarly, it stated that PAIRS would be relevant in wake of the digital security act that was passed by Hasina, curbing social media freedom and how it planned to rope in individuals to work for it rather than civil society organizations.
“The Awami League government used the Digital Security Act (DSA)—passed in 2018—to imprison political opponents, journalists, activists and ordinary citizens who criticized or challenged the state’s response to COVID-19 on social media. These online restrictions did not start with COVID-19. The DSA supplanted the ICT Act (2013), which provided the government similar powers to regulate online speech. The COVID-19 crisis simply provided a new opportunity for the government to exert its authority in the digital space. IRI’s program was designed to operate within and respond to this political context. In Bangladesh’s closing space environment, IRI designed a creative programmatic approach to push back against anti-democratic trends as well as find space where immediate progress could be made. IRI supported socially conscious artists because they are an underutilized actor in a rapidly closing civic space. While traditional Civil Society Organization (CSO) face constant pressure, individual artists and activists are harder to suppress and can often reach a wider audience with their democratic and reformational messages. In addition, IRI identified marginalized communities—specifically Biharis, plainland ethnic groups and LGBTI people—as non-threatening beneficiaries for whom the government would support advocacy. Both approaches proved effective in the current political context and showed important potential for greater impact in future phases of programming. Through the approaches, IRI’s program raised public awareness on social and political issues in Bangladesh and supported the public to challenge the status quo, which ultimately aims for power shift inside Bangladesh.”
The documents have detailed how individuals were roped in for events, book launches, story-telling, photo exhibition, art exhibition, theatre performance, dance events, movie and documentary screenings, round table meet, advocacy training programs, some of which were based on exclusive invites, which was attended by the political officer and the consular officer from the US embassy, which as per their findings, impacted 400,000 Bangladesh nationals directly.
Similarly, in another project that the organization executed from February 2021 to September 2022 for which it was given a grant of $900,000 by NED, the body stated that it would “enhance marginalized voices, especially youth and women, within political debate and decision making, the Institute will build the capacity of women political leaders, elected representatives, and political candidates to contest elections and assume leadership positions at the subnational level. The Institute will also work with representatives of the student wings of both major political parties to bolster their understanding of inclusive and non-violent means of political participation; and with non-partisan student leaders on university campuses to improve their leadership skills. Simultaneously, the Institute will support student cultural activists, including musicians, artists, and photographs.”
ALARM BELLS FOR INDIA?
What should raise alarm bells in Delhi and in other countries is the fact that under the heading, “Statement of problem being addressed”, it blamed India for Awami League’s corrupting political competition.
“In Bangladesh, political competition is dominated by two political parties: the Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). For the past ten years, under the support of India, the AL has become increasingly hegemonic: dominating, co-opting, and corrupting political competition and civic discourse.” During this program, it interacted with leaders from both BNP and Awami League.
In another similar report, commenting on India, it said, “Predictably, the AL and Sheikh Hasina would seek re-election by all means under the support of India. It is necessary to counterbalance interference from regional powers.”
In one of event, it did a workshop in the Tangail District of Dhaka on nonviolence and inclusion with 15 student leaders (12 men, three women) from different political party student wings including Bangladesh Chhatra League, Chhatra Dal, Chhatra Odhiker Parishad, and the Student Federation of Bangladesh.
Similarly, it held another roundtable discussion in Tangail District, Dhaka Division with 11 student wing members (nine men, two women) and one senior leader (one male) from the AL’s Chhatra League to discuss the state of student politics in the AL.
Later, IRI conducted a virtual intraparty student roundtable with members of the BNP’s student wing from Tangail MM Ali College. A total of 11 students (10 male, one female) attended the discussion including the student wing’s senior leader Rana Ahmed, Joint Convenor of District Chhatra Dal, Tangail.
In its report it stated that one of the reasons for its shifting to an online format of meeting was as it “provided less opportunity for government monitoring”.
One of its report, “Bangladesh Strategy 2021-22”, gives a glimpse of how poorly it saw of both the Awami League and the BNP which perhaps was also proven that after Hasina came to India, it was a non political entity (Mohammad Yunus) who was chosen to run the government and not Khalida Zia.
“The Opposition is Weak.—The BNP faces external pressure, internal disarray, and declining popularity. The AL-led government has used every lever of pressure to subjugate BNP members and supporters including harassment, jailing, and extrajudicial killings. Although recent elections have allowed more space for opposition activities, the scope for challenging the government remains small. Internally, the party is divided between its Dhaka-based and London-based leadership, and between those who favor internal democratic reforms and those who support Khaleda Zia’s son Tariq Rahman’s control of the party from London. A BNP activist said, ‘Party members, activists, and supporters are in confusion about who is leading the party, and they are divided into two streams. The biggest challenge for the BNP is that it is missing leadership.’ The BNP also appears to be losing popularity. IRI’s most recent national survey in September 2019 showed approval for the ‘opposition’ at 36 percent, which was the lowest rated institution in the survey. In addition, the BNP’s pre-COVID19 public rallies, which mostly focused on the release of Khaleda Zia from jail (prior to her release in March 2020), were sparsely attended.”
“The AL and BNP are key actors in Bangladesh’s democratic backsliding. The AL’s autocratic tactics and the BNP’s vacillation between violence, boycott and participation are strategic decisions made by party leaders. A change in party leadership could change these dynamics, but the short-term potential for new political leaders is low. The AL and the BNP are hierarchical and dynastic parties. A small coterie of advisors dominates both parties, and Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina have elevated their ideologically aligned children as successors. Young or reform-minded new leaders face many obstacles to advancement in both parties. Family loyalty is the predominant ethos.”
Similarly, it also had a very low opinion of the Bangladesh army, the business class and the civil society.
“The business sector and army are institutions that could challenge the AL government. With money and weapons, respectively, businesspeople and generals pose a credible threat to AL rule. While the AL government has used harassment and violence to cow the political opposition, it has used appeals to self-interest to pacify business and military elites.
Through its control of state tenders, permits and licenses, and shipping routes, the AL made political support essential for business success. Opposition affiliated businesspeople are shut out of lucrative contracts or find themselves the target of politically motivated corruption cases. To make money, one has to support the AL (or at least not support the BNP). For the military, the Sheikh Hasina government has advanced early promotions of senior military figures and provided the military any hardware it requests. By sidelining the business sector, the military, and the political opposition through differing tactics, the AL government has consolidated its control over elite politics.”
“Civil Society Is Increasingly Disconnected from the Grassroots. – Civil society is the associational space between the state, private sector and family. Conceptually, it is occupied by formal organizations and informal groups of citizens that meet to discuss or address civic issues. In Bangladesh, civil society is dominated by Dhaka-based NGOs that often lack substantial grassroots connections and whose activities are geared toward meeting donor demands rather than addressing citizens’ concerns. Civil society has become an elite sector in which political influence and wealth are amassed.”
It further stated that it had made deep inroads into the BNP and Awami League.
While identifying its “priority areas of work”, it said, “Priority Areas of Work for IRI (This should include areas we are currently working in, as well as any additional priority areas is identified through analysis of the democratic deficits and regional/global trends.) is political party strengthening.”
“In Bangladesh, despite the increasingly polarized and contentious political system, IRI has cultivated strong relationships with the country’s two major political parties, the Awami League (AL) and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). In addition to regularly briefing political party leadership on extensive public opinion research findings, IRI has provided tailored, nonpartisan technical assistance to political parties on citizen-centered and data-based messaging and policy development
. Currently, IRI is strengthening connections between senior AL and BNP party representatives and voters through town halls conducted in partnership with Channel 24 News.”
The document identified five Washington-based US State Department officials and three Dhaka-based US officials, two with USAID and a political officer in the US embassy, as primary contacts. The Sunday Guardian is not naming them.
Under the heading, “Hill Outreach” (referring to senior officials overseeing this whole program execution), the officials who were named were: Chris Murphy (D-CT), SFRC (sits on South Asia subcommittee), Sumona Guha, South Asia Director, National Security Council , Donald Lu, incoming Assistant Secretary for SCA, State Department, Sarah Margon, incoming Assistant Secretary for DRL, State Department and Francisco Bencosme, Senior Advisor at EAP, State Department (covered Bangladesh while at Amnesty International).
https://sundayguardianlive.com/top-five/documents-show-u-s-set-in-motion-plan-to-oust-hasina
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