Chinese Economy Watch

[rockdog]

View: https://youtu.be/P_lcm4us-00?si=cvFbfgtI-VN79_k2

 

[rockdog]

Shanghai city walk.


View: https://youtu.be/0-Ti10Myvr0?si=HJiMe7Hk7MyL79z7

 

[E-195]

View: https://youtu.be/P_lcm4us-00?si=cvFbfgtI-VN79_k2

Sure sure Milei is Runing towards China, he is running so fast he is buying less from China and bought F-16s

 

[Hari Sud]

The Chinese Economy: Lies and Realities

A Communist Party of China (CPC) conclave is currently underway in Beijing. Although the event is not open to the public, the primary focus is clear: addressing the significant challenges facing the Chinese economy. These challenges include a property sector meltdown, overbuilt capacity, ballooning debt, especially among local governments, and a decline in foreign investment as Western nations diversify their supply chains and consumer goods imports. Official data released by China indicates a slowdown, prompting the CPC to convene and strategize solutions.

China produces a third of the world’s manufactured goods, so further overbuilding is futile. The housing sector, once a symbol of progress, now epitomizes the problem, with 80 to 90% of new buildings unoccupied, creating ghost towns. Local governments, key players in the housing boom, have accumulated around $12 trillion in debt. Combined with the central government’s $3 trillion debt, this situation is unsustainable.

Official Chinese statistics indicate economic issues, yet their accuracy is rarely questioned. These statistics are designed to present China favorably to the world, and even institutions like the IMF and World Bank rely on them without thorough verification. Local data is aggregated and released centrally, leaving little room for independent validation.

One reliable metric is Chinese exports, which cannot be easily manipulated due to the precise tracking of goods loaded onto ships and planes. However, internal economic data lacks such reliability, leading to estimates that the official Chinese GDP may be inflated by 20 to 30%.

Overcapacity and Market Challenges

In the last two years, China has built significant capacity for Electric Vehicles (EVs), aiming to dominate global markets with highly subsidized prices and abundant Lithium resources. However, import duties imposed by the US and Europe have thwarted this plan, and concerns about the quality and reliability of Chinese EVs, often based on reverse-engineered technology, persist.

This situation mirrors the housing sector's overcapacity and lack of market demand. Now, President Xi is pushing for dominance in Artificial Intelligence (AI), aiming to automate factories with robots and computers. However, this agenda is questionable, as high automation could eliminate jobs, contradicting the population's demand for employment. Consequently, this push for AI-driven automation may also struggle to succeed.

Where Does China Go from Here?

China's future under one-man rule, with Xi Jinping at the helm for life, is uncertain. While his word is law and has thus far maintained order, the long-term prospects are doubtful. China is embroiled in confrontations with nearly all its neighbors, and its aggressive military and naval expansions are proving costly. Projects like the Belt and Road Initiative, ongoing infrastructure overhauls resulting in underutilized roads and bridges, and highly expensive but underused bullet trains exemplify how surplus export cash is being spent.

The risks are manifold. If exports decline as importers diversify their sources, and if the quality of supply chain products deteriorates, factory activity will drop. Additionally, any conflict over Taiwan could devastate China's coastal export infrastructure, further jeopardizing its economic ambitions. China's rapid push to rival the West may ultimately lead to its downfall if these challenges are not addressed.

One last point worth mentioning is that today's China was developed with American support as a counterbalance to the Soviet Union/Russia over the past 30 years. This effort has ultimately failed, as China has now aligned itself with Russia. This demonstrates that in the global arena, there are no permanent enemies or friends, a principle that also applies to international business deals.

 

[rockdog]

The Chinese Economy: Lies and Realities

A Communist Party of China (CPC) conclave is currently underway in Beijing. Although the event is not open to the public, the primary focus is clear: addressing the significant challenges facing the Chinese economy. These challenges include a property sector meltdown, overbuilt capacity, ballooning debt, especially among local governments, and a decline in foreign investment as Western nations diversify their supply chains and consumer goods imports. Official data released by China indicates a slowdown, prompting the CPC to convene and strategize solutions.

China produces a third of the world’s manufactured goods, so further overbuilding is futile. The housing sector, once a symbol of progress, now epitomizes the problem, with 80 to 90% of new buildings unoccupied, creating ghost towns. Local governments, key players in the housing boom, have accumulated around $12 trillion in debt. Combined with the central government’s $3 trillion debt, this situation is unsustainable.

Official Chinese statistics indicate economic issues, yet their accuracy is rarely questioned. These statistics are designed to present China favorably to the world, and even institutions like the IMF and World Bank rely on them without thorough verification. Local data is aggregated and released centrally, leaving little room for independent validation.

One reliable metric is Chinese exports, which cannot be easily manipulated due to the precise tracking of goods loaded onto ships and planes. However, internal economic data lacks such reliability, leading to estimates that the official Chinese GDP may be inflated by 20 to 30%.

Overcapacity and Market Challenges

In the last two years, China has built significant capacity for Electric Vehicles (EVs), aiming to dominate global markets with highly subsidized prices and abundant Lithium resources. However, import duties imposed by the US and Europe have thwarted this plan, and concerns about the quality and reliability of Chinese EVs, often based on reverse-engineered technology, persist.

This situation mirrors the housing sector's overcapacity and lack of market demand. Now, President Xi is pushing for dominance in Artificial Intelligence (AI), aiming to automate factories with robots and computers. However, this agenda is questionable, as high automation could eliminate jobs, contradicting the population's demand for employment. Consequently, this push for AI-driven automation may also struggle to succeed.

Where Does China Go from Here?

China's future under one-man rule, with Xi Jinping at the helm for life, is uncertain. While his word is law and has thus far maintained order, the long-term prospects are doubtful. China is embroiled in confrontations with nearly all its neighbors, and its aggressive military and naval expansions are proving costly. Projects like the Belt and Road Initiative, ongoing infrastructure overhauls resulting in underutilized roads and bridges, and highly expensive but underused bullet trains exemplify how surplus export cash is being spent.

The risks are manifold. If exports decline as importers diversify their sources, and if the quality of supply chain products deteriorates, factory activity will drop. Additionally, any conflict over Taiwan could devastate China's coastal export infrastructure, further jeopardizing its economic ambitions. China's rapid push to rival the West may ultimately lead to its downfall if these challenges are not addressed.

One last point worth mentioning is that today's China was developed with American support as a counterbalance to the Soviet Union/Russia over the past 30 years. This effort has ultimately failed, as China has now aligned itself with Russia. This demonstrates that in the global arena, there are no permanent enemies or friends, a principle that also applies to international business deals.

If those words are ur perception about Chinese economy, i m no surprised that 3-4 decades ago, when your generation as the best age, made so many worng policies to ur own nation, and finally created so big GDP gap between two natoins.

Wondering did you ever write any article about your generation's fault?

 

[E-195]

If those words are ur perception about Chinese economy, i m no surprised that 3-4 decades ago, when your generation as the best age, made so many worng policies to ur own nation, and finally created so big GDP gap between two natoins.

Wondering did you ever write any article about your generation's fault?

You are very irrespectful and a fool, are you going to be young forever? no in fact at 40 you are pretty old,
In life nothing is sure, health money loyalty from people.

The future is something we can not predict unless we are prophets and even knowing the future we still have troubles while we live, being born means we always will have troubles, health, aging, diseases, economical troubles, no countryy can assure you total happiness.

not even wealth since even wealthy people get sick and die, well eventually we all die, so why so arrogance?
Not even power since all men get old and get sick and eventually die, not even great Putin, Xi or Biden,.


The great painter Hieronymus Bosch expressed what I am saying to you, but well that is matter for phylosophy and art history, so true happines is spiritual and not material.

Very likely India will catch up with China, but if you have more intelligence you would understand it happens every where advance and technology are spreading. but well perhaps time will make you grow and you will stop being a nationalistic child who thinks China ubber alles and comprehend every person is different and good people are everywhere and same bad people and in all nations there are troubles and all we have troubles grow!

 

[rockdog]

You are very irrespectful and a fool, are you going to be young forever? no in fact at 40 you are pretty old,
In life nothing is sure, health money loyalty from people.

The future is something we can not predict unless we are prophets and even knowing the future we still have troubles while we live, being born means we always will have troubles, health, aging, diseases, economical troubles, no countryy can assure you total happiness.

not even wealth since even wealthy people get sick and die, well eventually we all die, so why so arrogance?
Not even power since all men get old and get sick and eventually die, not even great Putin, Xi or Biden,.

View attachment 3823
The great painter Hieronymus Bosch expressed what I am saying to you, but well that is matter for phylosophy and art history, so true happines is spiritual and not material.

Very likely India will catch up with China, but if you have more intelligence you would understand it happens every where advance and technology are spreading. but well perhaps time will make you grow and you will stop being a nationalistic child who thinks China ubber alles and comprehend every person is different and good people are everywhere and same bad people and in all nations there are troubles and all we have troubles grow!

I m not against his age. I was against he keep on posting low quality economic article toward China. He was on old DFI forum for yrs and wrote lots of similar articles, but the analysis and prediction were always wrong.

I just remind you that, people at his age (80 yrs old?), created biggest gdp between India and China, i personally think his generation is total failure, and this generation still have no desire to rethink themselves.

If his article represent his generation's average quality, i think i find the answer how China created 6 times GDP gaps within 40 yrs.

 

[rockdog]

Italy government force Stellantis to sell its brands to Chinese auto maker!
Italy's government is considering taking control of the defunct auto brands Innocenti and Autobianchi, currently owned by Stellantis, and offering them to Chinese companies to encourage setting up factories in Italy, as reported by Il Sole 24 Ore on Friday.

Italy Looking to Offer Defunct Automobile Brands to Chinese Manufacturers​

Italy Looking to Offer Defunct Automobile Brands to Chinese Manufacturers | Asia Manufacturing Review

www.asiamanufacturingreview.com

Italy May Offer Zombie Stellantis Brands To Chinese Automakers​

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/italy-could-offer-china-automakers-defunct-stellantis-brands

Italy could "cede" the Autobianchi and Innocenti brands to China...​

Italy could "cede" the Autobianchi and Innocenti brands to China...

The Italian government wants to manufacture more cars on its borders and for this it could give up the Chinese Innocenti and Autobianchi. Will it be good?

www.actualidadmotor.com

 

[rockdog]

Sure sure Milei is Runing towards China, he is running so fast he is buying less from China and bought F-16s

One question:

During Argentina vs UK war in 1982, did any Spanish speaking nation came to help? Like Spain?

Which nation got direct help between UK and Argentina from USA? Was it UK right? correct me if wrong.

Which nation suffered weapon supply ban from USA and France, was Argentina right?

 

[E-195]

One question:

During Argentina vs UK war in 1982, did any Spanish speaking nation came to help? Like Spain?

Which nation got direct help between UK and Argentina from USA? Was it UK right? correct me if wrong.

Which nation suffered weapon supply ban from USA and France, was Argentina right?

During the war Argentina was supported by Spain and Italy diplomatically, not military, and they were kind of neutral since they are NATO members.

Peru and Bolivia sent weapons.

however you have a little distorted vision, Argentina is a white nation, so it was a fight between white nations.

However you do not know enough History of latin america, by 1990 the USA paid the help they gave to the UK by the formation of Mercosur.

You misunderstanding is because economically China will not be allowed to destroy the economies of Latin America.

Over supply is real, Latin america will not become a Chinese economic colony, it might be there a partnership since Globalization is pushing for economic links between all nations examples do exist, In Mexico MABE-HIER or JAC-Giant motors-VEKSTAR it is impossible to stop globalization, impossible to Stop the economic rise of India or China, but Globalization is not about nations but about companies, mergers of industrial companies.

The west is not falling, nor the east east rising, it is the era of globalization where big multinational companies have more power and these are international in the sense they have many partners from many nations.

 

[E-195]

I m not against his age. I was against he keep on posting low quality economic article toward China. He was on old DFI forum for yrs and wrote lots of similar articles, but the analysis and prediction were always wrong.

I just remind you that, people at his age (80 yrs old?), created biggest gdp between India and China, i personally think his generation is total failure, and this generation still have no desire to rethink themselves.

If his article represent his generation's average quality, i think i find the answer how China created 6 times GDP gaps within 40 yrs.

View attachment 3825

All nations have improved all, and india will not be stopped, it is like when Portugal became a super power and later Spain and England, China will not rule as you are thinking the Indians will rise too

 

[rockdog]

View: https://youtu.be/xfcJNx1hqFQ?si=3UIKzlYK_VgMTTBk

 

[helin]

View: https://x.com/AgatheDemarais/status/1815371215156248967

 

[E-195]

Actually, even if they remove the logo, it's easy to differentiate between Chinese cars and other cars. In 2023, Chinese cars accounted for nearly 76 percent of the 1.06 million new cars sold in Russia. Who doesn't recognize a Chinese car? What Russians are trying to say by removing the logos is that they only buy Chinese cars because they have no other choice; if they had options, they wouldn't buy them.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aV1YnBMIEHI

 

[helin]

Actually, even if they remove the logo, it's easy to differentiate between Chinese cars and other cars. In 2023, Chinese cars accounted for nearly 76 percent of the 1.06 million new cars sold in Russia. Who doesn't recognize a Chinese car? What Russians are trying to say by removing the logos is that they only buy Chinese cars because they have no other choice; if they had options, they wouldn't buy them.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aV1YnBMIEHI

The Russians have other options,

They can buy cars made in India and Mexico

 

[E-195]

The Russians have other options,

They can buy cars made in India and Mexico

there are sanctions, most mexican made cars go to the USA and Europe; but the fact is Russians do not consider chinese made cars are good

 

[helin]

there are sanctions, most mexican made cars go to the USA and Europe; but the fact is Russians do not consider chinese made cars are good

So it was the best car they could buy,

 

[E-195]

So it was the best car they could buy,

you did not watch the video did you?
Now western cars are gaining ground and consider basically are not sold directly.

China cars are expensive but due to low quality, they get cheaper, it happens every where, quality costs dumped products as Chinese cars are sold has been the reason most Chinese car brands are dead, oversupply is easy to deal tariffs and more tariffs, at the end subsidies will not be able to sustain artificially cheap prices of usually low quality products.

 

[helin]

you did not watch the video did you?
Now western cars are gaining ground and consider basically are not sold directly.

China cars are expensive but due to low quality, they get cheaper, it happens every where, quality costs dumped products as Chinese cars are sold has been the reason most Chinese car brands are dead, oversupply is easy to deal tariffs and more tariffs, at the end subsidies will not be able to sustain artificially cheap prices of usually low quality products.

So why are they buying Chinese cars

 

[helin]

Russian car market dominated by Chinese brands including Li Auto​

Reading Time: 2 minutes
Mark Andrews
April 7, 2024

4​

Chery is one of 9 Chinese brands dominating Russian market​

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March sales figures from Russia show that Chinese brands now dominate the market holding nine out of the top ten best-selling brand positions with only homegrown champion Lada outselling them. Even more surprising is that one of those brands is Li Auto, which up until now was widely believed not to export cars.
Russia last year was China’s largest car export market with sales of 841,000 from January to November 2023. According to figures from China Automotive Digital Research Institute this wave shows no sign of abating.
Although sales of Lada far exceeded sales of any Chinese brand, and were up by 64.5% in March and by 43.2% YOY for the first three months, the increases from some Chinese brands were much higher.
Great Wall’s Haval brand along with Geely, and Chery all achieved quite close results with sales of 16,045, 15,004 and 13,159 respectively in March.

Haval Xiaolong Max PHEV on display at the 2023 Shanghai Auto Show.
Both Geely and Chery in fact did even better as they appeared on the top ten list more than once. In the case of Geely they also gained the number 9 position thanks to Geely Belgee which is a joint venture mainly controlled by Belarusian state automaker BelAZ (51.5%) and Geely (33.5%) with the remainder held by other Chinese entities. It should be noted though that these cars are actually made in Belarus rather than China.
Chery on the other hand also had entries from the Exceed brand at number 6, Omoda at number 7 and Jetour at number 10. Omoda is an export only brand for various Chery cars first debuting with a renamed version of the Chery Omoda 5 and initially used as a brand in Russia and Kazakhstan.

Chery Exeed Lanyue (VX) range extended EV (PHEV) on display at the 2023 Shanghai Auto Show.​

The biggest news however on the list is Li Auto a brand which is generally thought of as operating only in China. Li sold 3,617 cars in Russia during March which was a 14971% increase YOY and the brand sold 8.049 in the first quarter up by 19532%.
The full results can be seen in the table below. These indicate that Russia will likely remain China’s key export market and that sales in Russia should be well up on last year and likely will amount to well over a million cars in 2024.

Position	Brand	March sales	Increase YOY	Q1 sales	Increase YOY
1	Lada	39,908	64.5%	90,870	43.2%
2	Haval	16,045	134.0%	37,639	135.!%
3	Geely	15,004	185.4%	36,264	202.7%
4	Chery	13,159	63.7%	31,893	56.4%
5	Changan	9,330	805.8%	20,216	1023.7%
6	Exeed	4,664	38.4%	10,843	49.1%
7	Omoda	4,632	93.9%	10,423	92.8%
8	Li Auto	3,617	14971%	8,049	19532%
9	Geely Belgee	2,732	–	4,260	–
10	Jetour	2,616	–	5,081	–

Top 10 brands by sales in Russia March 2024
Source: Fast Technology​