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Here I have to be honest Nations like India or China have enough people even with population decline to stay powers for a long period.Will China be in a position to launch attacks in 2027 given this population decline?
in the case of China, it depends the level they industrilize their economy.
And If I am honest the size of India and China can only be compared if others nations sign free trade agreements, customs unions, and a common currency.
For Latin America that is our only way to remain viable in the future.
For BRICS it will be the same,a common currency or at least a customs Unions is the only viable way to make BRICS a real block.
But a customs union to work well needs a very basic concept, companies from the block need to cooperate in the same way Europe does, it means common projects and freedom to operate.
The USA for example is forcing Mexico to ditch Chinese commerce, regardless it is good or bad, because companies like Ford work in both sides and Mexican suppliers also work along side American companies that is the reason the USA has rules of content origin with Canada and Mexico
Rules of content Origin would mean trade between BRICS nations would build things as a single nation does.
For example BYD will need to build in Europe but not only that it needs to respect rules of origin content from other European nations.
Otherwise they will pay tariffs like Chinese steel does in North America.
see:
-"However, Mr Singham warned that BYD would have to follow strict “rules of origin” on cars exported to Europe and the UK.
These require that a certain proportion of a car’s value comes from components made locally or tariffs are levied.
At present, that is set at 40pc but will rise to 55pc from 2027. The requirement for batteries is currently set at 30pc but will rise to 70pc over the period.
Mr Singham said: “They will have to be careful that there is serious manufacturing in Turkey – if what they are doing is just assembly, that would certainly not satisfy the rules."-
Chinese carmaker to avoid paying tariffs on electric car exports to Britain
Chinese giant BYD will avoid paying tariffs on electric cars exported to Britain after announcing plans for a massive factory in Turkey.
finance.yahoo.com
The reason why they build in Turkey and not Mexico is because the rules of origin in north america are higher percentage
Charted: Automaker Sales by Region in 2023
We visualized automaker sales by region to identify the biggest markets for brands like Ford and BMW.
www.visualcapitalist.com
And that is obvious if you see american car makers get their main profits from North America.
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