Chinese Economy Watch

[Anants]

This is long term problem which CCP to its credit recognised & started addressing early this century itself which is apart from mfg consumables there has to be an attempt at mfg those machines mfg those consumables.

Hence apart from inaugurating all those thousands of KM's of HSR , the need to build them in house. It's the same story with steel mfg equipment . To their credit they've also kept up with the times by upgrading themselves.

Of course CCP subsidies come in handy as well . In fact I'd argue without massive CCP intervention they'd only be restricted to production of consumables.

Our record here is patchy. In some areas like SMC we have a plan & are proceeding on course. In others like railways whatever the idea the implementation is haphazard. In some others like Steel either we lack the technology or we haven't upgraded ourselves to reach state of the art standards.

A good example is L&T which was the implementation partner for Paul Wurth / SMS. They have the expertise to implement the project but lack the expertise to develop that technology in house.

I think we need a Niti Aayog kind of set up to look into import substitution from China across the board & come up with policies accordingly which GoI then should be implementing in concord with industry & academia.

This would cover the entire gamut from toys & knick knacks at one of the spectrum to steel mfg equipment , HSR systems , EV & battery chemistry & other sophisticated systems at the other end & everything in the middle. GoI can come up with PLI & other such subsidies .

However we must realise that given practically all enterprises in China are SOE's ( after CCP purged people like Jack Ma , there's no such thing as the private sector there any longer ) hence the level of state support they'd get is something we'd be unable to match.

With that in mind we must proceed to avoid replication of such events in future for there will be more steel plants which'd come up in future as well as modernization / upgradation of existing ones if we've to reach 10 trillion USD GDP in the next 10-12 years & go beyond that .

I guess - abundant Chinese Materials available in market - makes giants like Tata and L&T shirk away in investing in such stuff. Making Investment in such Manufacturing makes sense if there are sustained periodic orders. I understand its not Pizza order and I dont expect sales like that.. but what I am saying viable no of orders which justifies in setting up such expertise.. and that too in a political environment - where a next non BJP Govt or SC order or Environment Ayatollahs halt even existing plants..

 

[Azaad]

I guess - abundant Chinese Materials available in market - makes giants like Tata and L&T shirk away in investing in such stuff. Making Investment in such Manufacturing makes sense if there are sustained periodic orders. I understand its not Pizza order and I dont expect sales like that.. but what I am saying viable no of orders which justifies in setting up such expertise.. and that too in a political environment - where a next non BJP Govt or SC order or Environment Ayatollahs halt even existing plants..

No it appears Tata Steel chose the Chinese company purely on commercial grounds. Usually in such projects unless there's a huge goof up by the contractor in question which happens to be the Paul Wurth - L&T JV there's no way the client entertains another contractor / consultant for the second phase of the same project.

However if TATA Steel has gone against the grain & done so it could be because of 1 of 2 reasons . Superior ToT or costs . I don't think the Chinese company brings anything to the table in terms of technology except to say that they're on par with the rest of the world or thereabouts.

Which in turn means Tata Steel chose them purely on costs. And as we all know that can only come about thru massive subsidies courtesy CCP.

The Chinese game plan seems clear . Now that their steel products are attracting punitive tariffs the world over they're diversifying their steel industry by setting up fronts like the ASEAN countries from where they export.

The next step is to acquire steel producing factories across the world which is easier said than done given steel is a strategic sector & no country worth its salt is going to allow China to take control of their steel sector thru either exports or takeovers.

The third option is to see Chinese companies become part of the supply chain . That's what you're seeing out here.