Indian Economy

[SlayingHell]

Every day you have such large investments pouring into Vietnam with 14x less population.

Taiwan cooling solution firm AVC doubles Vietnam investment to $400 mln

Asia Vital Components (AVC), a Taiwan-based cooling solution provider, will increase its investment in Vietnam’s northern province of Ha Nam to $400 million.

theinvestor.vn

We can make infinite number of permutation and combination of excuses of "this country is close to this and that country has that", excuses won't fuel economic growth. India isn't competitive enough for export oriented growth.

Well can you compare value addition?
“Profit of electronics industry (like the garment and footwear industry) participating in the final assembly process in Vietnam is about 5 - 10%. This means that despite large export volume, economic benefits from Vietnam's participation in the global electronics supply chain are relatively small,”

 

[FalconSlayers]

Yes

Fortunately for us we don't have to depend on export oriented growth like Vietnam or the neighboring choddi-boniyan stitching countries.

Who said that? "Internal consumption" is a cope. Depending on internal consumption while not substituting the imports will only stagnate our growth. Our neighbouring banana republics can't sustain beyond 1-2% growth because CAD will swell, similarly we can't sustain 8%+ because again, CAD and fiscal deficit will swell. China sustained double digit growth because it's industries were export competitive, substituted imports, allowing CCP and their firms to spend handsomely on just millions of apartments, roads, skyscrapers, bridges, high speed rail because they didn't have to fear a high CAD and instead maintained high current account surplus.

India can only sustain that if we ever manage to reduce the trade deficit, which we aren't able to. Our goods export basket is still dominated by petroleum, jewellery etc (reexported processed goods).

 

[shade2]

Who said that? "Internal consumption" is a cope. Depending on internal consumption while not substituting the imports will only stagnate our growth. Our neighbouring banana republics can't sustain beyond 1-2% growth because CAD will swell, similarly we can't sustain 8%+ because again, CAD and fiscal deficit will swell. China sustained double digit growth because it's industries were export competitive, substituted imports, allowing CCP and their firms to spend handsomely on just millions of apartments, roads, skyscrapers, bridges, high speed rail because they didn't have to fear a high CAD and instead maintained high current account surplus.

India can only sustain that if we ever manage to reduce the trade deficit, which we aren't able to. Our goods export basket is still dominated by petroleum, jewellery etc (reexported processed goods).

It is because of internal consumption we have those assembly plants here, which now export some part of the production.
Inspite of India not being export competitive for exports alone.


The way things currently are, with the (((democratic system))) with Union Cumrades doing headline grabbing hartal, with half-assed infra, with Gooras doing footdragging on signing FTAs, we cannot compete with Vietnam and PRC and any other SEAsian place with prior manufacturing chops like Malaysia or Thailand.

Being export competitive is the way forward, because at the end of the day local-assembly-to-avoid-duties is very low value-add, but this is the current reality of it
You can continue dispensing blackpills to get it out of your system, it's ok.

 

[crazywithmath]

Every day you have such large investments pouring into Vietnam with 14x less population.

Taiwan cooling solution firm AVC doubles Vietnam investment to $400 mln

Asia Vital Components (AVC), a Taiwan-based cooling solution provider, will increase its investment in Vietnam’s northern province of Ha Nam to $400 million.

theinvestor.vn

We can make infinite number of permutation and combination of excuses of "this country is close to this and that country has that", excuses won't fuel economic growth. India isn't competitive enough for export oriented growth.

Vietnam and India are not competing for the same vertical. These comparisons do not mean much.

Yes

Fortunately for us we don't have to depend on export oriented growth like Vietnam or the neighboring choddi-boniyan stitching countries.

Yeah, I do not think anybody invests in India for the sole purpose of avoiding the 'made in china' tag. Good for them though, smaller less complex economy with smaller population - they have no reason to nurture the kind of domestic manufacturing capabilities we are aiming to house.

 

[ezsasa]

India can only sustain that if we ever manage to reduce the trade deficit, which we aren't able to. Our goods export basket is still dominated by petroleum, jewellery etc (reexported processed goods).

engineering goods is our top export(25%), it is almost equal to gems and oil combined.

NIRYAT

NIRYAT - National Import-Export Record for Yearly Analysis of Trade

niryat.gov.in

 

[crazywithmath]

engineering goods is our top export(25%), it is almost equal to gems and oil combined.

NIRYAT

NIRYAT - National Import-Export Record for Yearly Analysis of Trade

niryat.gov.in

Nothing wrong with exporting petro products.

OMCs import crude -> crude processed at Indian refineries -> secondary/tertiary products derived -> product exported after domestic value addition

 

[Suryavanshi]

For the rest you are straight up hand waving away "years of grinding". My relatives live the life style that you are describing in the US and they are either FAANG employees with 300000k + salaries or C something O of a large company which can approach a million a year.
The blue collar absolutely does not live that well.

AC technician salary at entry us is 50000 in Canada while for more experienced one is 65000

They can save for a few years and till buy a mustang with little bit of down payment. Why emphasize on luxury cars? because that is associated with wealth.
Which indian blue collar could hope to have such luxuries? With a salary of 7000?
West offers a better vertical than India.


Tho I must say houses are as costly in canada as India.

 

[FalconSlayers]

engineering goods is our top export(25%), it is almost equal to gems and oil combined.

NIRYAT

NIRYAT - National Import-Export Record for Yearly Analysis of Trade

niryat.gov.in

Nothing wrong with exporting petro products.

OMCs import crude -> crude processed at Indian refineries -> secondary/tertiary products derived -> product exported after domestic value addition

I never said it is bad, we absolutely should.

Just that I am pointing out, it is not enough. Some hundred off bn USD of engg exports isn't enough.

Here's the exports basket of china






Here's India






Vietnam





Philippines






Germany






Japan





Being export competitive = your products being world class that can globally and hence locally compete. Our pharmaceutical industry is one such example.

 

[Hari Sud]

Well, India missed the bus during the last 25 years of computer related innovation by being a back office to the large corporations. Not much can be done to correct this situation. It provided bread and butter to thousands of science and engineering graduates. Now as the Nvidia boss says that time of Artificial Intelligence is here. Nvidia itself is innovating newer and newer chips to push the AI. His advice to India was to innovate something and be on the forefront to invent and sell something to the world. Nvidia will help. They are already co-operating with Reliance - Ambani. Well in my opinion, something new will come out. I hope so…..

 

[crazywithmath]

I never said it is bad, we absolutely should.

Just that I am pointing out, it is not enough. Some hundred off bn USD of engg exports isn't enough.

Here's the exports basket of china
View attachment 13392





Here's India
View attachment 13393





Vietnam
View attachment 13394




Philippines
View attachment 13395





Germany
View attachment 13396





Japan
View attachment 13397




Being export competitive = your products being world class that can globally and hence locally compete. Our pharmaceutical industry is one such example.

Yet, VN's economic complexity (and hence, the real growth in recent years) is lower than that of India's; can you guess why?

Pinoys have very decent economic complexity but poor real growth.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Yet, VN's economic complexity (and hence, the real growth in recent years) is lower than that of India's; can you guess why?

Pinoys have very decent economic complexity but poor real growth.

We don't know the future trajectory of Indian economy. And can't prematurely claim anything.

 

[crazywithmath]

Yet, VN's economic complexity (and hence, the real growth in recent years) is lower than that of India's; can you guess why?

The ans to this is low domestic value addition % btw.

 

[shade2]

The ans to this is low domestic value addition % btw.

People kang here about the same even if the results exported,
But go into raptures about Vietnam when it does the same at a larger scale

There is no reason to expand subcomponent production in Vietnam either, since everything can be imported via road/rail/port from China which is close by, unless you're some Samsung style conglomerate which has the least China dependent supply chain.

 

[ezsasa]

The ans to this is low domestic value addition % btw.

which organisation computes this? (both domestically and globally)

 

[crazywithmath]

which organisation computes this? (both domestically and globally)

The Atlas of Economic Complexity by @HarvardGrwthLab

Visualize global trade data and economic growth opportunities for every country

atlas.cid.harvard.edu

 

[mist_consecutive]

View: https://x.com/GlobeEyeNews/status/1850933806905295262

> Oil deficient country, doesn't produce oil
> Exports the most amount of oil to Europe

Dhandhomaxxing

 

[ezsasa]

any one knows how to find what FII holdings were in Mar 2020?

FIIs pulled out 1 lakh crore out of a total of 73 lakh crore base in Oct 2024,
FII's pulled out 73k crore in Mar 2020, what was the denominator then?
=====
Despite pull out, FIIs still have over Rs 73 lakh crore invested in Indian markets: Expert
Read more At:

https://aninews.in/news/business/despite-pull-out-fiis-still-have-over-rs-73-lakh-crore-invested-in-indian-markets-expert20241029121806/

 

[haldilal]

View: https://twitter.com/haldilal/status/1851104170415358254

 

[SKC]

any one knows how to find what FII holdings were in Mar 2020?

FIIs pulled out 1 lakh crore out of a total of 73 lakh crore base in Oct 2024,
FII's pulled out 73k crore in Mar 2020, what was the denominator then?
=====
Despite pull out, FIIs still have over Rs 73 lakh crore invested in Indian markets: Expert
Read more At:

https://aninews.in/news/business/despite-pull-out-fiis-still-have-over-rs-73-lakh-crore-invested-in-indian-markets-expert20241029121806/

You can find their investment data online:
https://www.cdslindia.com/Publications/ForeignPortInvestor.html

https://trendlyne.com/portfolio/superstar-shareholders/custom/Q4-2020/?query=fii

https://www.fpi.nsdl.co.in/web/Reports/FPI_Fortnightly_Selection.aspx​

 

[ezsasa]

You can find their investment data online:
https://www.cdslindia.com/Publications/ForeignPortInvestor.html

https://trendlyne.com/portfolio/superstar-shareholders/custom/Q4-2020/?query=fii

https://www.fpi.nsdl.co.in/web/Reports/FPI_Fortnightly_Selection.aspx​

so it was 29 lakh crore in Mar 2020, now it is 73 lakh crore.