Indian Economy

[shuturmurg]

Might be a silly questions, but what exactly is stopping india from growing at like 8% , rn our growth seems to be 6-7%,

What kind of changes have to be there to get that extra 1-1.5% ?

Shorter term fix :

1. Fixing ease of doing business in India, and not on some world bank rankings, but actually on ground. That can only be done if reforms are done by outsiders and not babus. This government in completely dependent on babus for governance, they write circulars in such a twisted fashion that there is lot of room of "interpretation" (that is bribery and harassment). So, reforming our corporate and business laws.
2. Actually implementing newer labor laws.
3. Reducing import duties on components and stop our babus from frequently changing tariff rates, that makes business planning very hard.
4. Signing FTA with western countries, specially EU as Vietnam has FTA and Bangladesh gets full access to their markets due to being in least developed nation category.

Longer term :
1. Reduce malnutrition and stunting of kids to below 2% (like China achieved) to maximize potential of our population. Special attention to be paid on nutrition and not calorie count of kids and pregnant mothers. Shortage of protein and iron is pretty common.
2. Improve education : Rejoin Pisa tests and track our improvement on it. Pisa tests are not rote learning but actually check application of learnings, improving on that is a good indicator of better education. Human resource is all we got. We are not a commodity super power like Russia, Middle east or even Canada, Brazil or Australia that we get rich by selling natural resources and agri products.
3. Improve vocational learning.

 

[Rango]

Might be a silly questions, but what exactly is stopping india from growing at like 8% , rn our growth seems to be 6-7%,

What kind of changes have to be there to get that extra 1-1.5% ?

The amount of resources we have to spend in dealing with 650 million Muslims in our region.

De-fertilize them like the Chinese did in Xinjiang.

 

[ezsasa]

Might be a silly questions, but what exactly is stopping india from growing at like 8% , rn our growth seems to be 6-7%,

What kind of changes have to be there to get that extra 1-1.5% ?

there are many ways to look at this, one of which is the following.

1% of GDP at constant prices = 1.87 lakh crore
1% of GDP at current prices = 3.3 lakh crore
roughly 35-40 billion $.

Indian economy imported 76 lakh crore worth goods this past fiscal, exports are roughly about 68 lakh crore.

GDP calculation includes subtracting value of imports from total number, finding alternative domestic sources for roughly 3.3 lakh crore worth of non-energy imports while at the same time maintaining the export levels, increases GDP by 1-1.5%.

 

[bakofbakchod]

Might be a silly questions, but what exactly is stopping india from growing at like 8% , rn our growth seems to be 6-7%,

What kind of changes have to be there to get that extra 1-1.5% ?

1. improve education. Indian kids in government schools are seriously dumb and lack basic math skills, due to rubbish infra + even worse unfireable teachers. we have failed an entire generation of rural youths again. This has big implications for manufacturing sector, as companies have to waste extra resources skilling the labourer
2. increase investment in urban infrastructure. IMO India is likely one of the few countries in the world where urbanization has negative effect on the economy. The chaos, traffic and lack of planning is severely impacting the economy. Easy example is auto market. Sales in most big cities have either stagnated or not growing as fast as rivals outside India, due to traffic congestion. Urban investment has indirect impacts too, such as tourism. Building new greenfield cities in each district should be the goal
3. increase investment in inter-city railways and expressways. 200km journey between any 2 parts of India takes 4h on average, compared to 2h in rest of world, as proper interconnected expressway network does not exist yet, except a few standalone projects

just addressing these 3, can add 1-2% to annual GDP growth

 

[bakofbakchod]

View: https://x.com/UpdatesChennai/status/1923740188704178209

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

1. improve education. Indian kids in government schools are seriously dumb and lack basic math skills, due to rubbish infra + even worse unfireable teachers. we have failed an entire generation of rural youths again. This has big implications for manufacturing sector, as companies have to waste extra resources skilling the labourer
2. increase investment in urban infrastructure. IMO India is likely one of the few countries in the world where urbanization has negative effect on the economy. The chaos, traffic and lack of planning is severely impacting the economy. Easy example is auto market. Sales in most big cities have either stagnated or not growing as fast as rivals outside India, due to traffic congestion. Urban investment has indirect impacts too, such as tourism. Building new greenfield cities in each district should be the goal
3. increase investment in inter-city railways and expressways. 200km journey between any 2 parts of India takes 4h on average, compared to 2h in rest of world, as proper interconnected expressway network does not exist yet, except a few standalone projects

just addressing these 3, can add 1-2% to annual GDP growth

Your first point is s multifaceted issue, how our schools are operated has huge issues, first thing is School hours for classes upto like 5th and 6th shouldn't be more than 4-5 hours, breaks included.

Indian schools have issues with just wasting time, then there are tutions and coaching which is just insane, kid is spending like 8-10 hours sitting. And then parents wonder why their kid gets obese in teenage years.

Teaching staff is less of a issue of teaching quality rather than a issue of overall system, that is focus small term goals , like I have seen parents go insane for 4th standard exams, it's toxic af for kids. It creates a mental framework for these kids that values next monthly exam. This mentality persists throughout their educational career.

Like most of the schools outside urban areas like even basic scientific equipments, you many find couple of beakers, test tubes, flasks that's about it.
Research is not rote learning and it's not something you can pay some money to teach, thus we have problems with it.

 

[sauntheninja]

Your first point is s multifaceted issue, how our schools are operated has huge issues, first thing is School hours for classes upto like 5th and 6th shouldn't be more than 4-5 hours, breaks included.

Indian schools have issues with just wasting time, then there are tutions and coaching which is just insane, kid is spending like 8-10 hours sitting. And then parents wonder why their kid gets obese in teenage years.

Teaching staff is less of a issue of teaching quality rather than a issue of overall system, that is focus small term goals , like I have seen parents go insane for 4th standard exams, it's toxic af for kids. It creates a mental framework for these kids that values next monthly exam. This mentality persists throughout their educational career.

Like most of the schools outside urban areas like even basic scientific equipments, you many find couple of beakers, test tubes, flasks that's about it.
Research is not rote learning and it's not something you can pay some money to teach, thus we have problems with it.

I live in a tier 1 city and still had broken science equipment in schools. Even the teachers encouraged students to copy the data from last year and all the marks came from the Viva

 

[concard]

there are many ways to look at this, one of which is the following.

1% of GDP at constant prices = 1.87 lakh crore
1% of GDP at current prices = 3.3 lakh crore
roughly 35-40 billion $.

Indian economy imported 76 lakh crore worth goods this past fiscal, exports are roughly about 68 lakh crore.

GDP calculation includes subtracting value of imports from total number, finding alternative domestic sources for roughly 3.3 lakh crore worth of non-energy imports while at the same time maintaining the export levels, increases GDP by 1-1.5%.

That's a great way to look at it. This is one reason I am a big proponent of green hydrogen. I just did a rough calculation on how much diesel all our public transport buses use per year. I am only talking about buses which ply within the city everyday. The cost comes to around 2-3 Lakh crore per year. Most states still use old buses which consumes more diesel. If we convert all of them to fuel cell buses, diesel is more or less eliminated. And we will be saving around $40 billion in forex. That's exactly the calculation you put out. And our GDP would increase by 1% with current prices.

If we hit the GoI target of producing 5 million metric tons of Green hydrogen annually by 2030, it will have a ripple effect on many industries. Cutting crude oil and coal imports are crucial for our industrial development. Now that we have established Solar manufacturing supply chain within the country, I am expecting our renewables to expand rapidly. GoI has also brought stringent policy to make Wind turbines at home as well. Let's see where it leads us.

 

[karn]

That's a great way to look at it. This is one reason I am a big proponent of green hydrogen. I just did a rough calculation on how much diesel all our public transport buses use per year. I am only talking about buses which ply within the city everyday. The cost comes to around 2-3 Lakh crore per year. Most states still use old buses which consumes more diesel. If we convert all of them to fuel cell buses, diesel is more or less eliminated. And we will be saving around $40 billion in forex. That's exactly the calculation you put out. And our GDP would increase by 1% with current prices.

If we hit the GoI target of producing 5 million metric tons of Green hydrogen annually by 2030, it will have a ripple effect on many industries. Cutting crude oil and coal imports are crucial for our industrial development. Now that we have established Solar manufacturing supply chain within the country, I am expecting our renewables to expand rapidly. GoI has also brought stringent policy to make Wind turbines at home as well. Let's see where it leads us.

City buses can be replaced with electric relatively easily. It's the trucks that need the green hydrogen as a battery powered truck is impractical.