Indian Economy

Some interesting milestones largely ignored by people

We overtook Japan in annual investments to the economy.
1729666323487.png

Although the numbers for certain countries is a bit off. India this year wiII be around $1.3 trillion.


We overtook china in services exports in FY2024
1729666402310.png


Don't wanna prematurely claim, but we might become numa wan services exporter in a decade. By 2030 we'd likely be at numba 2 position.
Gobiji has cursed the GDP by doing the $4 Trillion and $5 trillion by 202X jhumlas.
He hasn't. It is the dollar outflow caused recently due to FPI pullout recently of $10bn or something.
 
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India's GDP this year will be $3.88 trillion as per IMF and all visible trends. Sanyals and all prematurely claimed $4 trillion for 2024 lmao.
IMF expects the INR to depreciate by 3-4% and has a habit of underestimating real growth. We will see what happens.
Failure in being export competitive.

How do you export when the global economy is barely growing? It is not the pre GFC era anymore.
 
How do you export when the global economy is barely growing? It is not the pre GFC era anymore.
By eating the share of other countries. Increase the share in the pie if the pie isn't expanding. Being uncompetitive in exports isn't a recent phenomena for India Inc.
 
By eating the share of other countries. Increase the share in the pie if the pie isn't expanding. Being uncompetitive in exports isn't a recent phenomena for India Inc.
Almost all major exporters are finding it difficult to grow their exports. Global trade declined in 2023. Newcomers benefit from Goldiclocks economies - uncertain times and declining global trade favors incumbents only.

Indian exports (both merchandise and overall) are still expanding - a lot of nations are not so lucky. Given the declining global trade that indicates an increase in India's share of global exports only.

EDIT: To elaborate on my points;


Global goods trade projected to dip 1.2% on value terms. Indian merchandise exports up 1.02% in the first 6 months of FY 2024-25. So India is already eating into the share of other exporters. @FalconSlayers

Why does Ireland has so much service export?
What service are they exactly exporting to get these figures?
Financial I guess?

Ireland is a tax haven.
 
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Some interesting milestones largely ignored by people

We overtook Japan in annual investments to the economy.
View attachment 13038

Although the numbers for certain countries is a bit off. India this year wiII be around $1.3 trillion.


We overtook china in services exports in FY2024
View attachment 13039


Don't wanna prematurely claim, but we might become numa wan services exporter in a decade. By 2030 we'd likely be at numba 2 position.

He hasn't. It is the dollar outflow caused recently due to FPI pullout recently of $10bn or something.
Why does Ireland has so much service export?
What service are they exactly exporting to get these figures?
Financial I guess?
 
Some interesting milestones largely ignored by people

We overtook Japan in annual investments to the economy.
View attachment 13038

Although the numbers for certain countries is a bit off. India this year wiII be around $1.3 trillion.


We overtook china in services exports in FY2024
View attachment 13039


Don't wanna prematurely claim, but we might become numa wan services exporter in a decade. By 2030 we'd likely be at numba 2 position.

He hasn't. It is the dollar outflow caused recently due to FPI pullout recently of $10bn or something.

India won't be able to beat both US and UK in services exports, they are reaping the benefits of the world order that emerged post WW2 i.e financial systems, intellectual property regime, digital exports etc.

this one below is of US, there should be a similar official data for UK too. will have to look if a similar dataset exists of India , but i suspect we will not have the range and depth as these top two even 10-15 years down the line.

 
India won't be able to beat both US and UK in services exports, they are reaping the benefits of the world order that emerged post WW2 i.e financial systems, intellectual property regime, digital exports etc.

this one below is of US, there should be a similar official data for UK too. will have to look if a similar dataset exists of India , but i suspect we will not have the range and depth as these top two even 10-15 years down the line.



See, I know it's not going to be easy, but it is still possible to be number 2.
 


IMF and Oxford giving conflicting reports
 
Bharat to import coal from the land of the Great Khan via Russia


Earlier the lumber one supplier was Australia, but you never know when they will catch the Empty-Place terrorist disease

 

What's up with this new German maska-lagana?
Are they that desperate to sell us the submarines?

 
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What's up with this new German maska-lagana?
Are they that desperate to sell us the submarines?


kraut chancellor is coming for a visit this month.
 
Bharat to import coal from the land of the Great Khan via Russia


Earlier the lumber one supplier was Australia, but you never know when they will catch the Empty-Place terrorist disease



Chennai to Vladivostok route was started few years back. Looks like supply chain route is getting into work. Hope the INSTC will also start working.

Need Iran to stop pissing out with Israel and do the proxy thing.
 


IMF and Oxford giving conflicting reports
Do not read too much into these 'reports'. The GDP numbers will speak for themselves.


Crypto is already 'banned' in India. :bplease:
 
some of us assume that the gormint gets only well thought out advice from senior gyanis of the world, and it's the gormint mantris and babus who don't know how to do their jobs.

here larry summers is saying, why does GoI need 600 billion$ forex, GoI can just keep 400 and invest the rest in MDBs. when these fellows give such advice, we don't know how much he has thought thru in terms of VUCA, exchange rate etc. FM has responded appropriately. but what if, there is another FM or gormint in place who are so much into gora worship that they might seriously consider these sort of trojan horse kind of ideas.

this is to say, we as public need to take into account that gormint not just has to keep searching for good ideas, they also have to be on guard to make sure bad ideas do not become policy.


View: https://youtu.be/9XdCc5vjyPU?t=3610
 

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