Indian Economy

[FalconSlayers]

Have they looked into moving up the Value Chain? Last time I saw, we are importing Surgical Grade Steel and likes of that with Dhandomaxxers scraping bottom barrel crumbs.

We are even importing CRGO meant for transformer production, just when we're expanding our power infra rapidly. Dhandhos are rent seeking crooks.

 

[Nutcracker]

Arvind S is writing articles after articles urging the RBI to 'let' the currency fall and find its 'natural value' and here you are saying 'currency is in free fall'.

Will have to look up the details but pretty sure INR is among the best performing Asian currencies (if not the best perming one already).

One Subramani wants currency to fall,
Other Subramani (K) wants currency to maintain strength.

Have they looked into moving up the Value Chain? Last time I saw, we are importing Surgical Grade Steel and likes of that with Dhandomaxxers scraping bottom barrel crumbs.

These leeches never strive for volume. There is no long term vision in these old Indian business houses.

 

[Blademaster]

Unpopular opinion- we should let Chinese set up their factories in India, preferably with an Indian partner. Since Trump will impose tariffs on Chinese exports, their manufacturers will also frantically search for other destinations. It is a very small window we have, and we should not let it go. It is very natural if Chinese are used to set up or better our manufacturing base, just like Koreans and Japanese were used in China.

No because the Chinese will send all their profits without paying any taxes and bring in their own employees from China. They will laugh all the way to the bank while we are stuck holding the bag.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Exports this year *might* touch $840 billion at current rate. Piyush should use his black magic to push this to a trillion dollars in next 2 years.

The cumulative overall exports during April-October 2024 is estimated at USD 468.27Billion, as compared to USD 436.48Billion in April-October 2023, with an estimated growth of 7.28%

India’s total exports (Merchandise and Services combined) for October 2024* is estimated at US

pib.gov.in

View: https://youtu.be/ILNLXWw9UrI

 

[bakofbakchod]

We are even importing CRGO meant for transformer production, just when we're expanding our power infra rapidly. Dhandhos are rent seeking crooks.

yup. all are good for nothing rent seeking scums. On the CRGO side, the situation will be bad until ~2027 when new capacity becomes active

>In FY 2024, India required 400,000 tonnes of CRGO steel. However, domestic production was limited to just 50,000 tonnes, and the country imported 239.2 thousand tonnes from international markets.

No Domestic CRGO Steel Till 2027; Industry Appeals For Allowing Imports

India is grappling with an acute shortage of cold rolled grain-oriented (CRGO) steel, a crucial material used in the production of distribution and power transformers that are essential components of the country's power grid infrastructure.

knnindia.co.in

 

[FalconSlayers]

What exactly are these ethane and naptha crackers?

View: https://x.com/lakshmishaks/status/1872348973958377745

 

[sauntheninja]

Thinking about this for a long time.

The amount of talent companies like Infosys , TCS and Accenture like companies swallow up results in our major workforce being forced to work on this client model which are just sweatshops. If we could distribute our labour better it would lead to better productivity gains.

Let me give you a few examples :- the games industry brings in about 400 Billion $ of revenue and while there exists huge companies employing a lot of people its also a industry which has a excellent employee to cost ratio where few employees can rake in billions of dollars in revenue.

Hogwarts legacy brought over a billion dollars in revenue for WB (Warner Bros) and the studio that developed it Avalanche Software have an estimated 200-300 employees.

Bethesda Software who were bought by Microsoft have an estimated employee count of 450 employees.

This year's hottest game Black Myth Wukong (Which came from China) was developed by a team of 140 people and well it did really well covering their development costs in 3 days

'Black Myth: Wukong' sets China AAA game sales record at $961m

The highly anticipated Chinese video game "Black Myth: Wukong" has shattered records just one month after its release. According to data analytics firm VideoGame Insights, the game has sold an impressive 20 million copies on Steam alone, generating over $961 million in revenue. This milestone...

news.cgtn.com

Talking about other sectors lets look at Animation which is another sector that brings in a lot of money.

As you can see most of the employee count remains small but Anime is still a huge industry which brings a lot of money to Japan and helps in soft power as well.

Pixar another stalwart in Animation only has about 1000 employees but they produce films that can gross a billion dollars in the box office.

We need a system or incentives as a country to ensure people can take these risks and start these type of companies instead of slaving away for Narayan Murthy who will just buy another luxury apartment in the country

 

[shuturmurg]

Thinking about this for a long time.

The amount of talent companies like Infosys , TCS and Accenture like companies swallow up results in our major workforce being forced to work on this client model which are just sweatshops. If we could distribute our labour better it would lead to better productivity gains.

Let me give you a few examples :- the games industry brings in about 400 Billion $ of revenue and while there exists huge companies employing a lot of people its also a industry which has a excellent employee to cost ratio where few employees can rake in billions of dollars in revenue.

Hogwarts legacy brought over a billion dollars in revenue for WB (Warner Bros) and the studio that developed it Avalanche Software have an estimated 200-300 employees.

Bethesda Software who were bought by Microsoft have an estimated employee count of 450 employees.

This year's hottest game Black Myth Wukong (Which came from China) was developed by a team of 140 people and well it did really well covering their development costs in 3 days

'Black Myth: Wukong' sets China AAA game sales record at $961m

The highly anticipated Chinese video game "Black Myth: Wukong" has shattered records just one month after its release. According to data analytics firm VideoGame Insights, the game has sold an impressive 20 million copies on Steam alone, generating over $961 million in revenue. This milestone...

news.cgtn.com

Talking about other sectors lets look at Animation which is another sector that brings in a lot of money.

As you can see most of the employee count remains small but Anime is still a huge industry which brings a lot of money to Japan and helps in soft power as well.
View attachment 19768
Pixar another stalwart in Animation only has about 1000 employees but they produce films that can gross a billion dollars in the box office.

We need a system or incentives as a country to ensure people can take these risks and start these type of companies instead of slaving away for Narayan Murthy who will just buy another luxury apartment in the country

Is talent at those companies good enough to build something like this ? The most talented ones anyways leave those companies within 5 years, and move to product based companies.

 

[Suryavanshi]

Is talent at those companies good enough to build something like this ? The most talented ones anyways leave those companies within 5 years, and move to product based companies.

Correct observation. Those who have the disposition leave in 1 to 2 years while some grind 3 to 5 years and switch.
Beside I don't think there is an environment for game development here.
If gormint is serious than they should ask colleges to develop indie games as a project in final years.

 

[Suryavanshi]

It's disappointing really about half a million cs graduates in India and out of those 90% can reverse a string while the other 9% has grinded DSA leetcode and can reverse a string remaining 1% is the only one significant.

CS isn't even something hard and resource intensive you don't need costly sensors and cnc machining just a bit of time a good computer and some coordination.

If the colleges are serious they would start with the basics like writing BIOS.

 

[ezsasa]

Thinking about this for a long time.

The amount of talent companies like Infosys , TCS and Accenture like companies swallow up results in our major workforce being forced to work on this client model which are just sweatshops. If we could distribute our labour better it would lead to better productivity gains.

Let me give you a few examples :- the games industry brings in about 400 Billion $ of revenue and while there exists huge companies employing a lot of people its also a industry which has a excellent employee to cost ratio where few employees can rake in billions of dollars in revenue.

Hogwarts legacy brought over a billion dollars in revenue for WB (Warner Bros) and the studio that developed it Avalanche Software have an estimated 200-300 employees.

Bethesda Software who were bought by Microsoft have an estimated employee count of 450 employees.

This year's hottest game Black Myth Wukong (Which came from China) was developed by a team of 140 people and well it did really well covering their development costs in 3 days

'Black Myth: Wukong' sets China AAA game sales record at $961m

The highly anticipated Chinese video game "Black Myth: Wukong" has shattered records just one month after its release. According to data analytics firm VideoGame Insights, the game has sold an impressive 20 million copies on Steam alone, generating over $961 million in revenue. This milestone...

news.cgtn.com

Talking about other sectors lets look at Animation which is another sector that brings in a lot of money.

As you can see most of the employee count remains small but Anime is still a huge industry which brings a lot of money to Japan and helps in soft power as well.
View attachment 19768
Pixar another stalwart in Animation only has about 1000 employees but they produce films that can gross a billion dollars in the box office.

We need a system or incentives as a country to ensure people can take these risks and start these type of companies instead of slaving away for Narayan Murthy who will just buy another luxury apartment in the country

firstly, welcome back..

now that we have been discussing this angle for a few years, maybe it's time to move the discussion forward.

we have discussed enough on supply side, perhaps we need to look at demand side.

whatever said and done, body shop IT industry is a stabilised industry with it's own dynamics.

what are the other product areas where there is future demand domestically?
demand here means, areas where public is willing to spend.

in other words, don't worry too much about people already employed or about to be employed. focus on new avenues of growth. as people's incomes rise, their demand for new "good" things will rise.

in 2014, who would have thought that domestic fintech would be 7 lakh crore market value today.

 

[sauntheninja]

Correct observation. Those who have the disposition leave in 1 to 2 years while some grind 3 to 5 years and switch.
Beside I don't think there is an environment for game development here.
If gormint is serious than they should ask colleges to develop indie games as a project in final years.

See I'm not talking about game development here strictly. The point is the labor that is employed in these companies need to be incentivized to start their own enterprises and build products. Even people in startups and these game development companies are coding monkeys and every company need people doing the hard and laborious work

 

[ArjunMK1A]

While we are ready to shit on Gormint for lack of effort to establish India as Manufacturing/Software powerhouse.

But honestly let us see the reality.

Piyush goyal, PMO sect will call our so called industrial lobby like CII, NASSCOM to talk about getting India on top of few sectors.

CII consist of various big shots like Birla, Reliance, Jindals, Tata, Bajaj, Adani etc.

Goyal ask our Biggie to invest in R and D. We all know the statement from Jindal, Reliance and etc.

Now Goyal ask Nasscom for investment in AI, Quantum computing etc. Nandan Nilekani will tell we should not invest in LLM, Murthy will tell we need to work 70hrs for clients.

No wonder Gormint relies on CDAC, DRDO, CSIR even with piss poor efficient work.

 

[sameer]

yup. all are good for nothing rent seeking scums. On the CRGO side, the situation will be bad until ~2027 when new capacity becomes active

>In FY 2024, India required 400,000 tonnes of CRGO steel. However, domestic production was limited to just 50,000 tonnes, and the country imported 239.2 thousand tonnes from international markets.

View attachment 19726

No Domestic CRGO Steel Till 2027; Industry Appeals For Allowing Imports

India is grappling with an acute shortage of cold rolled grain-oriented (CRGO) steel, a crucial material used in the production of distribution and power transformers that are essential components of the country's power grid infrastructure.

knnindia.co.in

Baniyagiri dhandhos haven't invested in basic and R&D for many decades. TATA has like what 100+ years of steel making experience and they still can't manufacture CRGO, meanwhile Korean companies like POSCO and other who started in 1960's and 70's are doing it pretty well and Cheeni steel plants are even newer.

And If you can't innovate, then atleast steal the technology or get some JV where you get access to it. It's only recently that our Dhandhos are changing- that too ever so slightly.

JSW's recent acquisition of Thyseenkrup India should also help.

JSW-JFE to acquire thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel India - Your Gateway to Power Transmission & Distribution

JSW JFE Electrical Steel Pvt Ltd has entered into a formal agreement to fully acquire thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel India Pvt Ltd (tkES India) in a deal worth Rs.4,051 crore.

www.tndindia.com

Dhandhos need to sign more JV's esp with German companies in areas like chemicals, metallurgy etc. Lot of companies in the EU will have lower valuations in the next few years due to the ongoing de-industrialization and no better chance to scalp them.

 

[Gurmeet]

While we are ready to shit on Gormint for lack of effort to establish India as Manufacturing/Software powerhouse.

But honestly let us see the reality.

Piyush goyal, PMO sect will call our so called industrial lobby like CII, NASSCOM to talk about getting India on top of few sectors.

CII consist of various big shots like Birla, Reliance, Jindals, Tata, Bajaj, Adani etc.

Goyal ask our Biggie to invest in R and D. We all know the statement from Jindal, Reliance and etc.

Now Goyal ask Nasscom for investment in AI, Quantum computing etc. Nandan Nilekani will tell we should not invest in LLM, Murthy will tell we need to work 70hrs for clients.

No wonder Gormint relies on CDAC, DRDO, CSIR even with piss poor efficient work.

Only new gen of ind/acc can solve these problems.

 

[concard]

Baniyagiri dhandhos haven't invested in basic and R&D for many decades. TATA has like what 100+ years of steel making experience and they still can't manufacture CRGO, meanwhile Korean companies like POSCO and other who started in 1960's and 70's are doing it pretty well and Cheeni steel plants are even newer.

And If you can't innovate, then atleast steal the technology or get some JV where you get access to it. It's only recently that our Dhandhos are changing- that too ever so slightly.

JSW's recent acquisition of Thyseenkrup India should also help.

JSW-JFE to acquire thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel India - Your Gateway to Power Transmission & Distribution

JSW JFE Electrical Steel Pvt Ltd has entered into a formal agreement to fully acquire thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel India Pvt Ltd (tkES India) in a deal worth Rs.4,051 crore.

www.tndindia.com

Dhandhos need to sign more JV's esp with German companies in areas like chemicals, metallurgy etc. Lot of companies in the EU will have lower valuations in the next few years due to the ongoing de-industrialization and no better chance to scalp them.

Throw the Germans a bone, they will latch on to it anyway they can given their situation now. Germany has lot of important technology which would be very useful for India at this stage of development. They have Jet Engine technology as well. MTU makes Aero Engines and Engines used on warships. Since their China pie is shrinking India should offer them a Olive branch and get on to it. Having a FTA with EU would be cherry on top. However, we must be careful with FTA with EU as this might have a negative impact. Germans have nowhere to go. China party is over for them. Their massive exports need another huge market. Unless Africa or South America can absorb their exports which is unlikely, the only logical option is India. The question is are we up for it?

 

[sameer]

Throw the Germans a bone, they will latch on to it anyway they can given their situation now. Germany has lot of important technology which would be very useful for India at this stage of development. They have Jet Engine technology as well. MTU makes Aero Engines and Engines used on warships. Since their China pie is shrinking India should offer them a Olive branch and get on to it. Having a FTA with EU would be cherry on top. However, we must be careful with FTA with EU as this might have a negative impact. Germans have nowhere to go. China party is over for them. Their massive exports need another huge market. Unless Africa or South America can absorb their exports which is unlikely, the only logical option is India. The question is are we up for it?

There's this company called Deepak Chemtech, they recently bought out the assets, trademarks as well as licenses of a German company(Trinseo). Using that tech, they're planning to build a massive polycarbonate resin plant in Dahej Gujrat.

Germany has a lot of expertise in traditional industries esp chemicals and metallurgy. They're no longer able to manufacture them at economical rates due to Pootin turing off the cheap gas.

Our dhandhos should look into acquiring these companies and their IP's and set up plants here.

Deepak Chem Tech to acquire Polycarbonate Assets of Trinseo at Germany

Deepak Chem Tech Ltd, a subsidiary of Deepak Nitrite, will invest $600 million in a polycarbonate project at Dahej, Gujarat, producing 165,000 MT by Q4 FY 2028. It has partnered...

www.fibre2fashion.com

 

[Hari Sud]

Why Isn’t India Growing at 10%?

India has made remarkable progress over the past 20 years, becoming the world’s fourth-largest economy. However, it still lags behind Western consumption-driven economies and China’s export and manufacturing dominance. Achieving a 10% growth rate is essential for India to reach developed-nation status by 2047, but the current growth of 7.5-8% makes this unlikely. While the government is working to accelerate growth, India’s diverse democratic setup presents unique challenges.

Key Challenges and Opportunities

1. Manufacturing and Employment:

The government has prioritized infrastructure to boost manufacturing, which drives mass employment. However, India’s reliance on low-value industries like textiles, agro-industry, mining and construction etc. limits returns. Transitioning to high-value, high-tech manufacturing will require significant investment, external expertise, and a better-trained workforce. While India’s English proficiency is an asset, a stronger push is needed to upskill its labor force.

2. High-Tech Industry:

Recent efforts to develop electronics, computers, semiconductor and solar panel production mark a step in the right direction. Though delayed, these initiatives promise to reduce import dependence and expand export opportunities.

3. Service Sector:

India’s thriving service sector, fueled by global demand for high skilled labor, must continue to grow. Expanding and strengthening higher education institutions is crucial to maintaining this momentum.

4. Private Sector Role:

Government efforts alone cannot achieve 10% growth. The private sector must take the lead in investment, development, and innovation, particularly in high-tech industries, with the government acting as a facilitator.

5. Agriculture Modernization:

Agriculture, contributing only 15% of GDP but employing 50% of the rural workforce, remains inefficient and unprofitable. Modernizing crop patterns and focusing on high-demand products like pulses could improve returns with the right investment and training.

6.Internal changes for the welfare state:

In a relatively poor country like India, the welfare state is often overemphasized. With limited resources, politicians frequently offer freebies at the expense of the state. For instance, large quantities of grain are distributed at minimal cost to consumers, many of whom could afford to pay the market price. Another example is the MGNREGA scheme, which guarantees rural employment to every able-bodied individual. While such initiatives may appear beneficial, they place a significant strain on national resources.

Other programs, such as free electricity and water for the so-called underprivileged, further burden taxpayers. A critical re-evaluation of the scope of these schemes could result in substantial savings. If these funds were instead invested in the economy, they could generate more jobs and create greater opportunities, ultimately fostering sustainable development.

7. Deeper Economic Reforms

India’s growing economy, rapid urbanization, and young demographic demand deeper economic reforms. However, key domestic changes, such as simplifying land acquisition and easing stringent labor regulations, remain unaddressed. Streamlining regulatory procedures and encouraging foreign investment also require political will, which is challenging under the current minority government. A stronger, reform-oriented central government is essential to overcome these hurdles. Without such reforms, achieving growth beyond 8% will remain difficult.

Conclusion

India’s growth potential is undeniable, but realizing a 10% growth rate will require a collective effort from the government, private sector, and workforce. Strategic investments in manufacturing, services, and agriculture, coupled with a focus on education and skill development, are key to unlocking this goal. Return of Donald Trump to the presidency will put maximum pressure on India to remove tariffs and open the market further. Hence, give and take in Free Trade Talks is coming.

 

[ArjunMK1A]

Only new gen of ind/acc can solve these problems.

The loud ones in new age CEO were ungrateful morons of highest order.

Zepto - Toxic workculture.

OLA - We all know Bhavesh is there to pump his stocks up. Does not care about the faulty scooters he is selling Openly lie about Kutrim as independent tech when it is an GPT wrapper. Talks like an moron.

Still better managed companies were coming out, But it will take time to establish. But the copium is can BAJAPA can survive this term. They are doing dog shit and complete gridlock.

 

[crazywithmath]

There's this company called Deepak Chemtech, they recently bought out the assets, trademarks as well as licenses of a German company(Trinseo). Using that tech, they're planning to build a massive polycarbonate resin plant in Dahej Gujrat.

Germany has a lot of expertise in traditional industries esp chemicals and metallurgy. They're no longer able to manufacture them at economical rates due to Pootin turing off the cheap gas.

Our dhandhos should look into acquiring these companies and their IP's and set up plants here.

Deepak Chem Tech to acquire Polycarbonate Assets of Trinseo at Germany

Deepak Chem Tech Ltd, a subsidiary of Deepak Nitrite, will invest $600 million in a polycarbonate project at Dahej, Gujarat, producing 165,000 MT by Q4 FY 2028. It has partnered...

www.fibre2fashion.com

We should really start a new thread tracking the performances of niche companies and debutants like these. This one thread does not do justice to these hidden gems. The likes of Jyoti CNC, Xpro India, Azad Engineering, Aequs and Borosil Renewables are doing some pretty amazing stuff out there but do not get feature here very often.

@bakofbakchod
@FalconSlayers
@Gslv Mk3