Indian Economy

[Blademaster]

View: https://youtu.be/GMGDeNceRI0?si=jD2AbR-d2Pjf-0P_

Clutterji our desi polymath is back this time donning the hat of an economist with his economic affairs editor & sidekick Mr "Absolutely" TCA Sharad Raghavan agreeing with everything his boss says.

Jokes apart , the news isn't good. @crazywithmath ; @ezsasa

Why do you keep posting Clutterji's videos if you do not like the quality of his journalism? Why bother give him any air or views?

It looks like you implicitly agree with most of his views.

 

[Azaad]

Textile clusters receiving higher enquiries amid Bangladesh crisis; order conversion by early 2025: AEPC

With foreign exchange reserves sufficient to cover only four to five months of imports, Bangladesh has faced challenges in importing cotton and fabric, which it traditionally sources from India.

indianexpress.com

 

[ezsasa]

Why do you keep posting Clutterji's videos if you do not like the quality of his journalism? Why bother give him any air or views?

It looks like you implicitly agree with most of his views.

because irrespective of coupta's inclination towards political (and economic) volatility, he is still one of the best journos in the country, keeps an eye on everything that he thinks helps his cause.

 

[Blademaster]

because irrespective of coupta's inclination towards political (and economic) volatility, he is still one of the best journos in the country, keeps an eye on everything that he thinks helps his cause.

That is not my point and actually, it does support what I am trying to say. Azaad keeps criticizing Coupta's journalistic integrity and quality but keeps posting the videos. And in light of what you said, then Coupta is not a bad journalist. It is just that we don't agree with his political viewpoints.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Jumla or real?

View: https://x.com/satyanadella/status/1876556891041792195

 

[shade2]

Jumla or real?

View: https://x.com/satyanadella/status/1876556891041792195

Real hoga na? otherwise why do press release

"""AI"""" includes a large range from big brained PhDs earning impossible sums of money to make algorithms/models wagera on the top level to YUGE amounts low paid dudes who's job is to validate the outputs of AI models on the absolute low end.

You can be assured most of the golden-goose PhDs are in Amreeka, we will get the mid to low end portions.

Oh btw ((( Train Indians with AI Skillz ))) is the jhumla portion, because they will be trained to use MS Azure based AI tools wagera, not anything general purpose.

 

[FalconSlayers]

View: https://x.com/abhirammodak/status/1876527443130892742

 

[sauntheninja]

With the news of Reliance partnering with Shein (Chinese retailer) Is putting all the eggs in the basket of a few beneficial for India going forward? Reliance and Adani seem to get all the major partnerships and benifits but aren't really able to use that money to innovate they just rent seek or maintain their far profit margins

 

[FalconSlayers]

Today is 7th January guys.

FIRST ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 2024-25​

Key Highlights:

• Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 6.4% in FY 2024-25 as compared to the growth rate of 8.2% in Provisional Estimate (PE) of GDP for FY 2023-24. Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 9.7% in FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 9.6% in FY 2023-24.
• Real GVA has grown by 6.4% in FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 7.2% in FY 2023-24. Nominal GVA has shown a growth rate of 9.3% in FY 2024-25 as compared to the growth rate of 8.5% in FY 2023-24.
• Real GVA of Agriculture and allied sector has been estimated to grow by 3.8% during 2024-25 as compared to the growth of 1.4% witnessed during the last year, i.e., 2023-24.
• Real GVA of ‘Construction’ sector and ‘Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services’ sector has been estimated to observe good growth rates of 8.6% and 7.3%, respectively during the FY 2024-25.
• Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at Constant Prices, has witnessed a growth rate of 7.3% during FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 4.0% in the previous Financial Year.
• Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Constant Prices, has rebounded to a growth rate of 4.1% as compared to the growth rate of 2.5% in the previous Financial Year.

FIRST ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 2024-25

The National Statistics Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Program

pib.gov.in

 

[Blademaster]

Today is 7th January guys.

FIRST ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 2024-25​

Key Highlights:

• Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 6.4% in FY 2024-25 as compared to the growth rate of 8.2% in Provisional Estimate (PE) of GDP for FY 2023-24. Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 9.7% in FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 9.6% in FY 2023-24.
• Real GVA has grown by 6.4% in FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 7.2% in FY 2023-24. Nominal GVA has shown a growth rate of 9.3% in FY 2024-25 as compared to the growth rate of 8.5% in FY 2023-24.
• Real GVA of Agriculture and allied sector has been estimated to grow by 3.8% during 2024-25 as compared to the growth of 1.4% witnessed during the last year, i.e., 2023-24.
• Real GVA of ‘Construction’ sector and ‘Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services’ sector has been estimated to observe good growth rates of 8.6% and 7.3%, respectively during the FY 2024-25.
• Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at Constant Prices, has witnessed a growth rate of 7.3% during FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 4.0% in the previous Financial Year.
• Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Constant Prices, has rebounded to a growth rate of 4.1% as compared to the growth rate of 2.5% in the previous Financial Year.

FIRST ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 2024-25

The National Statistics Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Program

pib.gov.in

So what does it mean for India’s GDP and per capita GDP?

 

[ezsasa]

So what does it mean for India’s GDP and per capita GDP?

GDP : 324 trillion ₹
GDP per capita : 230,195 ₹

 

[crazywithmath]

Yet another interesting development.

The state of Assam drafting a PLI scheme to bring investments;

Assam govt to unveil Rs 25,000 crore PLI scheme for industrial development | Autocar Professional

The scheme is modelled on the central government’s successful industrial development programme but is not restricted to any sector or industry.

www.autocarpro.in

And GoI launches PLI 2.0 for speciality steel makers;

PLI Scheme 1.1 Launched For Steel Sector To Boost Production; Rules Eased

The PLI 1.1 scheme will operate 'within the funds originally allocated for the scheme, i.e., Rs 6,322 crore', the steel ministry said.

www.ndtvprofit.com

 

[sauntheninja]

GDP : 324 trillion ₹
GDP per capita : 230,195 ₹

Any idea when will we breach 3k seems to be forever stuck in this range

 

[ezsasa]

Any idea when will we breach 3k seems to be forever stuck in this range

forever? it was 1500 in 2014 and now it is 2700, this while population increased by 15 crores in the same period.

India in past decade has done many things that 1500-2700 $ country is not supposed to achieve, that too mostly with own money.

consumption increased from 75 trillion ₹ to 200 trillion ₹ while keeping inflation under control,
exports increased from 29 trillion ₹ to 69 trillion ₹,
internet users have increased from 177 million to 954 million,
electrification of entire country,
bringing 25 crore people out of poverty.
etc. etc.

and yet, we are supposed to worry about a value which is based on multiplication factor of a "traded" commodity called $, which we have no control over.

to answer your question, whenever U.S and europe collectively decide to let go of their chini manufacturing addiction, which seems unlikely for now. for exchange rate to come down, gap between $ inflow and outlow has to be narrow.

 

[Hari Sud]

Electronics & Components: Why is India Lagging Behind?

India has struggled to transition from a dominant player in the software industry to a competitive force in electronics manufacturing. This lag is partly attributed to the lack of government focus over the last 20 years. During this time, much of the global electronics manufacturing technology and foreign direct investment (FDI) flowed into China. Advanced economies like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States did not consider India as an alternative manufacturing hub.

This dynamic began to shift with the outbreak of COVID-19, which disrupted supply chains and forced industries to reevaluate their dependence on China. For the first time, serious discussions emerged about relocating electronics manufacturing to other countries. However, since China had established a stronghold on lower-end electronics manufacturing, it was Chinese companies themselves that began shifting operations to countries like Vietnam and Malaysia.

India was largely overlooked in this process, except in areas like mobile phones and a few select components. Furthermore, Chinese companies sought to establish manufacturing bases abroad with their own investments and control, which India deemed unacceptable. As a result, Chinese investments in this sector were restricted, limiting the country’s ability to capture a significant share of the global electronics manufacturing market.

India’s Focus on the Electronics Industry

India’s journey toward establishing a robust electronics manufacturing ecosystem began two years ago with the launch of Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes aimed at attracting the semiconductor manufacturing industry. A substantial $20 billion investment was allocated to entice global manufacturers from Taiwan, Israel, and the United States to set up facilities in India. Companies such as Micron, TATA, Foxconn, Israel’ Tower and others have already taken advantage of these incentives. Within two years, India is expected not only to test manufactured chips but also to produce 14nm and 28nm chips domestically, both for local use and export.

Another segment of the electronics industry witnessing rapid growth includes the manufacturing of LCD panels, electronic appliances, electric vehicles components (EVs), and mobile phone components. The groundwork for these initiatives has already been laid. A $3 billion incentive scheme is in place to encourage manufacture.

Additionally, significant incentives are being offered to kickstart the manufacturing of computer hardware and display units. Efforts are also underway to modernize and upgrade the Mohali Semiconductor Laboratory to produce highly specialized semiconductors. Approximately $1 billion has been sanctioned for this purpose.

While this push is at least a decade overdue, the adage “better late than never” holds true. The government’s top policy think tank, NITI Aayog, has set an ambitious goal of expanding India’s electronics manufacturing to $500 billion by the fiscal year 2030.

These initiatives have the potential to generate 2 million high-tech jobs. However, the lack of skill training presents a challenge. As a result, industries are compelled to train newly hired employees, which could slow down the growth of startups.

Conclusion

India’s focus on the electronics industry has been long overdue. For years, the country concentrated on assembling mobile phones, relying heavily on imports from China for key components. With a massive trade deficit with China and the global shift toward high-end chip manufacturing, India had no choice but to realign its priorities. The recent push toward electronics manufacturing is a step in the right direction. If executed effectively, India stands a strong chance of achieving its $500 billion target by 2030.

 

[ezsasa]

Electronics & Components: Why is India Lagging Behind?

India has struggled to transition from a dominant player in the software industry to a competitive force in electronics manufacturing. This lag is partly attributed to the lack of government focus over the last 20 years. During this time, much of the global electronics manufacturing technology and foreign direct investment (FDI) flowed into China. Advanced economies like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States did not consider India as an alternative manufacturing hub.

This dynamic began to shift with the outbreak of COVID-19, which disrupted supply chains and forced industries to reevaluate their dependence on China. For the first time, serious discussions emerged about relocating electronics manufacturing to other countries. However, since China had established a stronghold on lower-end electronics manufacturing, it was Chinese companies themselves that began shifting operations to countries like Vietnam and Malaysia.

India was largely overlooked in this process, except in areas like mobile phones and a few select components. Furthermore, Chinese companies sought to establish manufacturing bases abroad with their own investments and control, which India deemed unacceptable. As a result, Chinese investments in this sector were restricted, limiting the country’s ability to capture a significant share of the global electronics manufacturing market.

India’s Focus on the Electronics Industry

India’s journey toward establishing a robust electronics manufacturing ecosystem began two years ago with the launch of Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes aimed at attracting the semiconductor manufacturing industry. A substantial $20 billion investment was allocated to entice global manufacturers from Taiwan, Israel, and the United States to set up facilities in India. Companies such as Micron, TATA, Foxconn, Israel’ Tower and others have already taken advantage of these incentives. Within two years, India is expected not only to test manufactured chips but also to produce 14nm and 28nm chips domestically, both for local use and export.

Another segment of the electronics industry witnessing rapid growth includes the manufacturing of LCD panels, electronic appliances, electric vehicles components (EVs), and mobile phone components. The groundwork for these initiatives has already been laid. A $3 billion incentive scheme is in place to encourage manufacture.

Additionally, significant incentives are being offered to kickstart the manufacturing of computer hardware and display units. Efforts are also underway to modernize and upgrade the Mohali Semiconductor Laboratory to produce highly specialized semiconductors. Approximately $1 billion has been sanctioned for this purpose.

While this push is at least a decade overdue, the adage “better late than never” holds true. The government’s top policy think tank, NITI Aayog, has set an ambitious goal of expanding India’s electronics manufacturing to $500 billion by the fiscal year 2030.

These initiatives have the potential to generate 2 million high-tech jobs. However, the lack of skill training presents a challenge. As a result, industries are compelled to train newly hired employees, which could slow down the growth of startups.

Conclusion

India’s focus on the electronics industry has been long overdue. For years, the country concentrated on assembling mobile phones, relying heavily on imports from China for key components. With a massive trade deficit with China and the global shift toward high-end chip manufacturing, India had no choice but to realign its priorities. The recent push toward electronics manufacturing is a step in the right direction. If executed effectively, India stands a strong chance of achieving its $500 billion target by 2030.

20 years ago means about 10 years after liberalisation, 4 years after y2k.
you have forgotten what it was like or you were not living here at that time?

12 hour power cuts in summers outside the metroes were still a common phenomenon, software companies could atleast work on generators but without switching AC on.

 

[Hari Sud]

20 years ago means about 10 years after liberalisation, 4 years after y2k.
you have forgotten what it was like or you were not living here at that time?

12 hour power cuts in summers outside the metroes were still a common phenomenon, software companies could atleast work on generators but without switching AC on.

True…… at that time focus was not electronics manufacture….

 

[ezsasa]

True…… at that time focus was not electronics manufacture….

electronics industry was there.

BPL,ONIDA etc. were making TVs. there was even CRT picture tube manufacturing unit somewhere i think.
BEL and a few companies were making telephones.
wipro, zenith were selling computers assembled from parts imported from SEA and china.

then in early 2000's tariff on electronic goods imports was made zero, and industry lagely went kaput.

either way, industry was no where ready for the electronics revolution iphone created. after GFC, goras handed over keys to their manufacturing kingdom to china anyways.

 

[shade2]

electronics industry was there.

BPL,ONIDA etc. were making TVs. there was even CRT picture tube manufacturing unit somewhere i think.
BEL and a few companies were making telephones.
wipro, zenith were selling computers assembled from parts imported from SEA and china.

then in early 2000's tariff on electronic goods imports was made zero, and industry lagely went kaput.

either way, industry was no where ready for the electronics revolution iphone created. after GFC, goras handed over keys to their manufacturing kingdom to china anyways.

That would be the Dixon wala's father iirc.
Apparently in the 90s the aforementioned was doing big bijness with foreign clients, and loaned his son a """""small sum""""" of 10-12 crores, best loan of the guy's life ofc, his CRT bijness soon got BTFO because of LCDs suddenly becoming popular.

btw i think only ITA-1 i.e IT hardware local manufacturing was killed, for white goods( TV, Washing Machine, Fridge, AC ) there was local assembly atleast, since my ancient LG tv from 2011 was Made in India.

Congi's also signed FTA with Vietnam and Thailand, but i think the current govt has found a way to stop their imports from flooding the country, atleast in context of ACs from Thailand, or even AC compressors.

 

[sameer]

View: https://x.com/harshmadhusudan/status/1876207504016990457