Indian Economy

[crazywithmath]

Vishwalodu has completely lost it and has turned mao incarnate over time.

We have china releasing deepseek building in house chips breaching the 14 and 7nm chips sector. An extremely durable automobile and tech industry. We have america on the other hand pouring billions in AI creating world class chip infrastructure and the we have a duffer of an FM here.


View: https://x.com/saiarav/status/1883908353274872165?s=46

Make no mistake social raj is back in business and people better prepare for it.

Okay, so we now have an idea what Reuters based their article on;

From outright sale to retaining stake, ‘govt rethinking CPSE disinvestment strategy’

Government rethinks divestment strategy for CPSEs, focusing on retaining control over strategic, profitable entities amid objections and revival packages.

www.thehindubusinessline.com

Gormint thinks some PSUs are too precious and strategically important to allow 100% divestment so wants to make gradual stake sales instead. Mentions Shipping Corp, some steelmakers and BHEL. Article makes a small reference to opposition from some 'allies' (over PSU divestments) and that's about it - safe to assume that political compulsions are not a major factor here.

No mention of Pawan Hans, btw.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Breaking: Honda to set up electric motorcycle factory in India by 2028​

Breaking: Honda to set up electric motorcycle factory in India by 2028 | Autocar Professional

Although late to enter the EV market, Honda Motor is targeting the number 1 position in the Electric Motorcycle segment.

www.autocarpro.in

 

[FalconSlayers]

india's exports have surpassed sk and will soon surpass japan in coming years
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports
india's export to GDP ratio is also better then both china ans s.k which means we are more industrialized respective to our economy then they are with theirs.

Noticed one thing, Germany and France and other EU countries have majority of their exports to European Union. Don't know if it's stupid to ask, but how's it different from an Indian state exporting to other Indian state? I know they're separate countries but internal trade among EU countries adds to high export and import numbers of those countries.

 

[Anants]

india's exports have surpassed sk and will soon surpass japan in coming years
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports
india's export to GDP ratio is also better then both china ans s.k which means we are more industrialized respective to our economy then they are with theirs.

This set of exports count 'Services'. Subtract services - then what are th exports numbers and ranking?
2023

 

[sameer]

One thing I never understood is why our Dhandhomaxxers never indulge in risk taking ventures. Was just reading about the founder of Deepseek, apparently he was an eccentric hedge fund billionaire who was on a single minded mission to challenge US tech giants.

Meanwhile our opium traders will save all their billions for their kids weddings. I mean, ofc it's their money, so they can choose how to spend it. But there's difference between American and Cheen billionaires who aren't afraid of taking moonshot bets with their personal money compared to our license/permit raj protected conglomerates who are only interested in doing dhandho and weddings.

 

[darkflame]

This set of exports count 'Services'. Subtract services - then what are th exports numbers and ranking?
2023

View attachment 23365

Why subtract service exports in first place? Service exports also add dollars to forex same as merchandise exports, if getting a good service sector would had been easy every damn country on the face of the planet would had one. do they? Other thing to take into account is even if IT nibba nibbis keep their money stuffed in banks and don't spend it at all still they are helping this country a lot by allowing banks to lend more money helping in solving the problem of lack of capital which is observed widely in the developing world.

 

[crazywithmath]

One thing I never understood is why our Dhandhomaxxers never indulge in risk taking ventures. Was just reading about the founder of Deepseek, apparently he was an eccentric hedge fund billionaire who was on a single minded mission to challenge US tech giants.

Meanwhile our opium traders will save all their billions for their kids weddings. I mean, ofc it's their money, so they can choose how to spend it. But there's difference between American and Cheen billionaires who aren't afraid of taking moonshot bets with their personal money compared to our license/permit raj protected conglomerates who are only interested in doing dhandho and weddings.

The marker for frontier tech is not that large yet to justify risky state/private investment; even though more risk taking ventures are taking off (across semiconductor etc). Things will change with economic growth.

Might not mean much but India already punches above its weight.

Global Innovation Index 2024 - GII 2024 results

Tracking the most recent global innovation trends, the GII finds that innovation investment slowed in 2023, in marked contrast to previous years, making the prospect for 2024/2025 remarkably uncertain. But the outlook is not entirely cloudy. Technological progress and adoption in fields as...

www.wipo.int

GII parameters are population adjusted so population does not direcrly influence the rankings (posting this because some estemmed expert claimed that India's rank is due to her population back at the old DFI).

 

[shade2]

Noticed one thing, Germany and France and other EU countries have majority of their exports to European Union. Don't know if it's stupid to ask, but how's it different from an Indian state exporting to other Indian state? I know they're separate countries but internal trade among EU countries adds to high export and import numbers of those countries.

They are sovereign countries, our states are not.
At the end of the day the EU trade is just some glorified FTA trading, it's also why on those export or GDP lists EU is never ranked properly because it isn't a proper country.

Waise even ASEAN must be trading more with members of their bloc than outside for e.g.

 

[FalconSlayers]

They are sovereign countries, our states are not.
At the end of the day the EU trade is just some glorified FTA trading, it's also why on those export or GDP lists EU is never ranked properly because it isn't a proper country.

Waise even ASEAN must be trading more with members of their bloc than outside for e.g.

Except, ASEAN doesn't have a common currency while European union is also called the "Eurozone". It's not right to call it an FTA.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Why subtract service exports in first place? Service exports also add dollars to forex same as merchandise exports, if getting a good service sector would had been easy every damn country on the face of the planet would had one. do they? Other thing to take into account is even if IT nibba nibbis keep their money stuffed in banks and don't spend it at all still they are helping this country a lot by allowing banks to lend more money helping in solving the problem of lack of capital which is observed widely in the developing world.

Because the guy he quoted is taking about industrialisation being correlated to exports.

 

[Anants]

Why subtract service exports in first place? Service exports also add dollars to forex same as merchandise exports, if getting a good service sector would had been easy every damn country on the face of the planet would had one. do they? Other thing to take into account is even if IT nibba nibbis keep their money stuffed in banks and don't spend it at all still they are helping this country a lot by allowing banks to lend more money helping in solving the problem of lack of capital which is observed widely in the developing world.

By stressing on Non Services export - I am stressing on the question because this tells us are we as a nation diversifying our sources of income enough. That itself will give us measure on much employment we are generating and in which sectors

 

[crazywithmath]

https://www.business-standard.com/companies/news/vedanta-s-rs-1-trillion-aluminium-refinery-to-be-built-in-odisha-s-raygada-125012801031_1.html

 

[Suryavanshi]

Selling stakes in BEML, BHEL, SAIL etc is not that difficult (they were trying to do this in 2021 but gave up on it, eventually) - they don't have to sell 100% of it. Gradual disinvestments would do.

Not to forget the asset monetizatiom bit. Lots of these PSUs have underused/unused land parcels at prime locations across major cities. Lot of value can be unlocked by handing/leasing them over.

It is not being done (despite the keenness of the incumbent) because the FM is a useless nobody and not everything can be micromanaged by the PMO.

Look how IDBi stake sale is getting delayed. If you question the Ministers they will come up with weird arguments like 'muh timing the sale is important', 'unfavorable market sentiments reee' etc to hide their incompetence.

Honestly, have given up on it. This is what happens when you stuff your cabinet with 'loyalists' instead of actual performers.

You know reasons are pretty clear as to why BJPig isn't privatemaxxing.
The results were not in their favour and it's important that they do not bring attention to the fact that they are selling sarkari sansthans.
Besides the market is contracting and firms are gearing up for assets to devalue before going into buying spree during the next expansion session.
Regardless Jobs will be held off, remaining jobs will be made contractual.

Let's take the examples of bsnl. What changes have taken place?

Bsnl partners up with Tata for 5G means more co dependency on a private firm.
10 billion bailout package. A bad thing of course but this is done as a means to balance a strike between jio and airtel. Very gray in terms of benefits to the economy.
Bsnl had vowed to reduce headcount by 18000 to 19000 which is 30% of its headcount this year. Previous year 93000 had been retired through vrs, apparently most of the money for the bailout package went to this purpose.

Read below.

BSNL plans to reduce employee base by 18,000-19,000: Report

www.deccanherald.com

Gormint is indeed paying to reduce headcount.

Forum memberans must understand that the dehat still outnumber the Urban middle class and Mudi cannot just anger them outright. Memberans must shy away from too much randi rona.
MANGO MAN are like that Chapri investor that cannot read the market for its face value and trades based on third opinion.
We are on the right track to destination its just that the speed varies depending upon the weather condition.

 

[sameer]

The marker for frontier tech is not that large yet to justify risky state/private investment; even though more risk taking ventures are taking off (across semiconductor etc). Things will change with economic growth.

Might not mean much but India already punches above its weight.

Global Innovation Index 2024 - GII 2024 results

Tracking the most recent global innovation trends, the GII finds that innovation investment slowed in 2023, in marked contrast to previous years, making the prospect for 2024/2025 remarkably uncertain. But the outlook is not entirely cloudy. Technological progress and adoption in fields as...

www.wipo.int

GII parameters are population adjusted so population does not direcrly influence the rankings (posting this because some estemmed expert claimed that India's rank is due to her population back at the old DFI).

Thanks for the whitepill. Btw in the same index, when it comes to knowledge and tech inputs, we're ranked 22nd.

Hopefully, that continues to improve. At our development/poverty levels, compared to peers, we probably aren't that bad.

 

[crazywithmath]

KAS Group Ventures into the Semiconductor Manufacturing Market - Equitypandit

A new venture of the KAS Group, Karnataka-based KASFAB Tools unveiled its state-of-the-art semiconductor production plant at Dodaballabpur

www.equitypandit.com

==================================

You know reasons are pretty clear as to why BJPig isn't privatemaxxing.
The results were not in their favour and it's important that they do not bring attention to the fact that they are selling sarkari sansthans.
Besides the market is contracting and firms are gearing up for assets to devalue before going into buying spree during the next expansion session.
Regardless Jobs will be held off, remaining jobs will be made contractual.

Let's take the examples of bsnl. What changes have taken place?

Bsnl partners up with Tata for 5G means more co dependency on a private firm.
10 billion bailout package. A bad thing of course but this is done as a means to balance a strike between jio and airtel. Very gray in terms of benefits to the economy.
Bsnl had vowed to reduce headcount by 18000 to 19000 which is 30% of its headcount this year. Previous year 93000 had been retired through vrs, apparently most of the money for the bailout package went to this purpose.

Read below.

BSNL plans to reduce employee base by 18,000-19,000: Report

www.deccanherald.com

Gormint is indeed paying to reduce headcount.

Forum memberans must understand that the dehat still outnumber the Urban middle class and Mudi cannot just anger them outright. Memberans must shy away from too much randi rona.
MANGO MAN are like that Chapri investor that cannot read the market for its face value and trades based on third opinion.
We are on the right track to destination its just that the speed varies depending upon the weather condition.

I do not disagree with you but they had the supermajority and a roaring market between 2020 and 2024 and proceeded to announce plans to privatize/sale stakes and monetize assets (I remember following the DIPAM handle at old Twitter - they would put out notifications every other day and an army of online INC IT celliyas would cry and cope in the comments). Heck, there were reports that some unused army land parcels would be sold. They mercilessly went after OFB and those railways PSUs and neutered them all, sold Air India and set up the stage for a mega PSUmela amid a freaking pandemic when the opposition parties were too busy speculating why exactly Covaxin was bad for your kidney and did not even bother launching dharnas etc. But suddenly, they just stopped.

Me and @Azaad once speculated that at some point, Ji realized that the state lacked the capacity to execute something as grand as this and found out the hard way why exactly even Vajpayee wasn't actually able to move beyond a bunch of low hanging fruits (when it came to privatization). Perhaps, Ji needed his own Shourie but a timid and inexperienced Tai just wasn't cut out for it.

The environment has changed since and Ji has decided that he is done playing the game and would rather go for cost cutting and gradual stake sales while retaining significant stakes at some strategic PSUs.

I would keep BSNL out of it tho. It is supposed to be a testbed for indigenous 4/5/6/7G tech stack at scale (Tatas, Tejas, TCS, Sankhya Labs, BEL and a long list of Indian startups and MSMEs are involved in their stack).

 

[shade2]

I would keep BSNL out of it tho. It is supposed to be a testbed for indigenous 4/5/6/7G tech stack at scale (Tatas, Tejas, TCS, Sankhya Labs, BEL and a long list of Indian startups and MSMEs are involved in their stack).

They should have let Lodafone-Idea die a natural death if they wanted BSNL to get the "scale" to test domestic 4G/5G stuff.

 

[Indianhawk]

Lots of talk about PSUs but all without looking into changing geopolitics.

As I mentioned before in some post. World has changed forever since covid.
Globalization is stagnant if not in retreat.

Supply chains are reorganizing and world is being divided into blocks again.

This is time for government to provide stability in all sectors including public employment and industry.

Markets are correcting. Growth is slowling . We need a steady ship not more turbulence.

As India grows stronger we will face more resistance from West not less. We need a degree of PSUs to implement strategic autonomy where our private sector might bow to western commercial interests .

That's why BSNL has to revive . It took UCO bank to deal with Russia. I could type much more but you guys get the gist.

PSUs will be repurposed. They will be optimised slowly. But they will remain till we reach a certain stage of economy .

 

[Indianhawk]

One thing I never understood is why our Dhandhomaxxers never indulge in risk taking ventures. Was just reading about the founder of Deepseek, apparently he was an eccentric hedge fund billionaire who was on a single minded mission to challenge US tech giants.

Meanwhile our opium traders will save all their billions for their kids weddings. I mean, ofc it's their money, so they can choose how to spend it. But there's difference between American and Cheen billionaires who aren't afraid of taking moonshot bets with their personal money compared to our license/permit raj protected conglomerates who are only interested in doing dhandho and weddings.

Just throwing money doesn't produce innovation. You gotta gradually develop ecosystem of academia , research institutes and corporate labs all working in cohesion towards market demanded concepts.

Chinese are 10-15 years ahead here.

Besides don't be too impressed by any new hype in market whether by china or even usa. Both are masters of propaganda.

 

[Indianhawk]

most of the usable stuff in my home are from china/korea/or one of em FE countries

so much for all the hot air

We lost the domestic appliance battle long time ago. We are fighting back for it.

Good thing is that we are aggressive with new age technology . Most smartphone are now made in India so are solar panels. Laptops are increasingly made in India. Electronics in the next frontier.
PLI is working. We'll get there .

 

[Indianhawk]

New figures are updated. India definitely mogged the world.

List of countries by steel production - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So we are now production double the steel compared to USA.
Finally we have started our infrastructure spree it will last 30 years of non stop build up in all things infrastructure.
Rail road bridges whole cities you name it.

This will be a major factor driving our growth rate .

Secondly as our per capita income exceeds 3k dollars we will enter into a consumer good revolutionary which shall incentives local manufacturing for all consumer good and appliances .
Very similar to smartphone revolution but for household things .