Indian Economy

[shuturmurg]

Finally trade surplus this month mainly due to services exports and falling importsView attachment 27769

Some of it is due to falling price of Oil, but even adjusting for that, if you see the full report, merchandise exports are flat. That is problematic.

 

[shuturmurg]

I agree with this. India should have strict control on options and algorithmic trading. Even in China, DeepSeek came of a algorithmic trading company because Chnese govt. heavily started cracking down on what kind of trading can be done, causing the firm to pivot to LLM as they anyways had some top AI and Maths guys.


View: https://x.com/svembu/status/1901809723156123878

 

[ezsasa]

no jail, only fines for tax defaulters
=====
CBDT makes all Income Tax offences compoundable, eases rules for defaulters

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

 

[Migflug]

A China problem is hampering rating headroom of India's steel giants

Fitch Ratings downgrades JSW Steel and Tata Steel due to pressures from cheap Chinese imports and aggressive global tariff policies. Despite rising domestic steel demand, both companies may face persistent margin pressures. Potential government measures and deferral of capital expenditures could...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[Prasad]

That means we need to raise tariffs against Chinese goods and APIs and find a way to lower the cost of productions of APIs in India by making larger bulk orders.

Some of the problems with API's include need a lot of water and produce a lot of waste. Right now it's also about the capacity as well.

This is not some thing that can fixed in the short term or near term. It will need lot of capital, resources and technology for prolonged period to become competitive with Chinese ones.

Raising tariffs will hurt Indian pharma, immensely.

 

[crazywithmath]

I don't think shrinking goods trade is a good thing at all.

Falling petroleum prices. Non petroleum export growth is more than decent.

Some of it is due to falling price of Oil, but even adjusting for that, if you see the full report, merchandise exports are flat.

Patently false. We were having this exact discussion about a month back, non petroleum exports were growing at impressive pace FYTD (till January, 2025). Yet to analyze February data but one month should not alter the trend too much.

 

[Nutcracker]

Stats for Non-petroleum , non-gems

 

[trombone]

is there any truth in this or fear mongering?

Bengaluru’s IT Layoffs Spark Housing and Economic Crisis

Bengaluru, India’s premier technology hub, is facing an unprecedented job crisis as mass layoffs sweep the IT sector. A combination of cost-cutting measures and the growing adoption of AI.

newskarnataka.com

https://www.financialexpress.com/jobs-career/bengaluru-job-crisis-over-50000-it-employees-laid-off-in-2024-real-estate-hit-hard-3780129/

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

I

is there any truth in this or fear mongering?

Bengaluru’s IT Layoffs Spark Housing and Economic Crisis

Bengaluru, India’s premier technology hub, is facing an unprecedented job crisis as mass layoffs sweep the IT sector. A combination of cost-cutting measures and the growing adoption of AI.

newskarnataka.com

https://www.financialexpress.com/jobs-career/bengaluru-job-crisis-over-50000-it-employees-laid-off-in-2024-real-estate-hit-hard-3780129/

I wouldn't take an economy piece from a generalist paper, that seriously. If there are layoffs happening due to A.I then it would become clear after like 1-2 quarters, it feels like just regular layoffs that happen periodically and everyone freaks-out.

Although bangalore itself might be losing some IT investment to places like Hyderabad and Gurgaon.

 

[haldilal]

 

[concard]

I

I wouldn't take an economy piece from a generalist paper, that seriously. If there are layoffs happening due to A.I then it would become clear after like 1-2 quarters, it feels like just regular layoffs that happen periodically and everyone freaks-out.

Although bangalore itself might be losing some IT investment to places like Hyderabad and Gurgaon.

Bangalore has got highest grade A office absorption in the country. Many MNC's are setting up their GCCs here. It has even accelerated in the last 2 years. SAP used to have a presence in Bangalore East now they have built another campus of their own in Bangalore North near airport to create 10,000 jobs while cutting jobs outside of India. Even Boeing has opened their new campus. Recently Collins Aerospace opened their new campus. Job cuts might be true outside of India. In India although hiring might have come down, job cuts aren't happening since the outsourcing has become far more aggressive. Google is building their new campus in Bhagya Nagar. Amazon already has a campus there now they are moving to a new campus in Bangalore from their old campus.

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

Bangalore has got highest grade A office absorption in the country. Many MNC's are setting up their GCCs here. It has even accelerated in the last 2 years. SAP used to have a presence in Bangalore East now they have built another campus of their own in Bangalore North near airport to create 10,000 jobs while cutting jobs outside of India. Even Boeing has opened their new campus. Recently Collins Aerospace opened their new campus. Job cuts might be true outside of India. In India although hiring might have come down, job cuts aren't happening since the outsourcing has become far more aggressive. Google is building their new campus in Bhagya Nagar. Amazon already has a campus there now they are moving to a new campus in Bangalore from their old campus.

BJP needs to come back in 2028, to speed up infra projects.

 

[Azaad]

View: https://twitter.com/anandmahindra/status/1898028191404769574?s=19

 

[Migflug]

View: https://x.com/IndianTechGuide/status/1902193321969381694?t=V2MyZ6joLsgBtWhQZottBw&s=19

 

[ArjunMK1A]

BJP needs to come back in 2028, to speed up infra projects.

Are you talking about KA BJP unit?

If yes, Do not expect any massive change. Both BJP and Congress in KA were absolute corrupted crooks. It is basically bottom of barrel fight there.

 

[johny_baba]

View: https://twitter.com/anandmahindra/status/1898028191404769574?s=19

Yeah Morbi, used to be part of erstwhile Rajkot distric before the govt formed a separate Morbi distric from there
it's same city that got devastated during Machchhu river dam burst incident, but people overcome it with their enterprising - also, Morbi is just next to a small village-town Tankara, birthplace of founder of Arya Samaj, Dayanand Saraswati (original name - MoolShankar Tripathi / Trawadi in Gujarati)

 

[Azaad]

Yeah Morbi, used to be part of erstwhile Rajkot distric before the govt formed a separate Morbi distric from there
it's same city that got devastated during Machchhu river dam burst incident, but people overcome it with their enterprising - also,

Morbi is just next to a small village-town Tankara, birthplace of founder of Arya Samaj, Dayanand Saraswati (original name - MoolShankar Tripathi / Trawadi in Gujarati)

Moolshankar Tiwari. Came as a surprise to me too but apparently there are Gujju Jhas who're non Brahmins , Sharmas & Tiwaris from Sind who're Brahmins & also Shuklas & Tiwaris from Gujarat who're obviously Brahmins.

Could be ancestors from N India moved westwards centuries ago for different reasons.

 

[Migflug]

We can be a $6.6 (Bear), $8.8(Base) to $10.3(Bull) trillion economy by 2035.

 

[Vishnugupt]

I strongly believe that India will grow as fast as China has grown in the past until unless something very catastrophic happens.

As money grows and competition increase people start looking towards innovations for survival. Soon indian industry will start taking risks and R&D. We are reaching to that threshold.

 

[randombully]

I strongly believe that India will grow as fast as China has grown in the past until unless something very catastrophic happens.

As money grows and competition increase people start looking towards innovations for survival. Soon indian industry will start taking risks and R&D. We are reaching to that threshold.

We can't grow as fast as china even if everything goes right, due to two factors outside our control
1, we are democracy( chinks are authoritarian with central gov having all the power), with states government having significant power and the need to fulfill short term needs of people for votes even if it means sacrificing some long term benefits.

2, the current and future global economic and geopolitical environment is not/will not be capable of sustaining that level of growth anymore for a country large population like ours.
With west itself starting to enter slow recession, japan and korea too facing same, china already rose took significant chunk of global gdp etc.

We can expect a 6-8% growth on year to year basis if domestic policies are pretty good.
Could probably surpass 8%+ on very lucky years.