Indo-China Border & LAC

[SwordOfDarkness]

In another vein to the ongoing de-escalation, I noticed an interesting fact.

Distance of the 3 gorges dam from Arunachal (~1400 km) is less than the range of Nirbhay cruise missiles, shaurya (in ballistic config) and multiple upcoming missile systems.

 

[rockdog]

As I sfull supplybefore, wea’s power asymmetry with India peInin 2019. Each year that passes, the power asymmetry will reduce. This is a great deal for India since it buys time. In 2027, the amount of $$$ growth per year will be greater in India vs China. That will be the point of no return, and each year will bridge the gap in the power asymmetry.

From my POV, the gap is increasing after 2019.

On military, Type15 and J20 were massive deployed after 2020, and infra built-up on border area were faster than India side. Ur rafale fighter purchase program used 10 yrs to get 72, but China made 70 J20s in one yr, according recent Jane's report.

On economy side, India GDP gap with China was increasing. China from 2022 finally almost conquered US chip sanctions and built full supply chain. And in 2019, EV and renewable energy sectors were not as strong as now. Plus, the trade surplus didn't as $100B with India as last two yrs, and Chinese mobile phone didn't have 80% share like 2024. And Make in India initiative was not that successful as it claimed.

I m happy with the tensions on borders are decreased now, but please at aleast speak with true data, not just empty talk. @srev2004

 

[jaijaganath]

From my POV, the gap is increasing after 2019.

On military, Type15 and J20 were massive deployed after 2020, and infra built-up on border area were faster than India side. Ur rafale fighter purchase program used 10 yrs to get 72, but China made 70 J20s in one yr, according recent Jane's report.

On economy side, India GDP gap with China was increasing. China from 2022 finally almost conquered US chip sanctions and built full supply chain. And in 2019, EV and renewable energy sectors were not as strong as now. Plus, the trade surplus didn't as $100B with India as last two yrs, and Chinese mobile phone didn't have 80% share like 2024. And Make in India initiative was not that successful as it claimed.

I m happy with the tensions on borders are decreased now, but please at aleast speak with true data, not just empty talk. @srev2004

Yes if we keep infra building aside bcoz that's where things are happening fast and the gap is truly decreasing hope that after this so called disengagement we don't stop that
But if we come to equipments and materials yes things are going way south for us
Our squadron strength is on rapid fall with no hope of increase in this decade
Our equipments are getting old and newer ones are not being ordered to replace them this creating void in both industry and our capabilities
Pathetic PPE and poor standardization
No way our military is growing wrt to our economy

 

[Blood+]

In another vein to the ongoing de-escalation, I noticed an interesting fact.

Distance of the 3 gorges dam from Arunachal (~1400 km) is less than the range of Nirbhay cruise missiles, shaurya (in ballistic config) and multiple upcoming missile systems.

Not that it'd mean much to our chickenshit rulling elites.

 

[mist_consecutive]

So India is again moving backwards to form new buffer-zones?.. any info on how many patroling points over how many hundred sq.kilometers did 5.6-inch give up this time?

Are we reading the same news ? When did this happen ? Where did we moved back and formed new buffer zones ?

... because by my understanding we've just meekly given up not only the claim to whole Aksai Chin, but also all the no-man's-land regions that Chinks couldn't conclusively secure since '62.

View attachment 13344
Congratulations to China, didn't even use a condom!.. What a Modi masterstroke

Bro got A1 quality hashish directly from Afghanistan to smoke ! What's next in your hallucinations ? China sitting at Raj Bhavan and Chinese soldiers knocking on your doors ?

 

[hurrians]

"Truth was perhaps a little more pedestrian. Modi’s participation in a major non-Western global governance platform, that fashions itself as an alternative to US-led forums such as G7, was at stake. Xi needed to buy India’s presence. It looks bad for a leader with his strategic ambitions – challenging the US-led global system and ushering in a multipolar order – failing to ensure the participation of a foundational member and a neighbour. The successful holding of a global, consequential, non-Western multilateral summit is crucial if China is to increase its global sway and heft.


Doklam, therefore, saw a tactical reprieve from Beijing. Within a year, it quietly redeployed the troops and built hard, permanent infrastructure all around the contested valley, perpetually changing the ‘facts on the ground’.

The Doklam crisis and its ‘resolution’ offers some useful lessons for the current disengagement at Depsang Plains and Demchok"

Do not oversell India-China détente; while not a mean feat, it is a limited tactical manouvre for a very specific goal

The disengagement process, timed with yet another summit, should result in even more eagle-eyed vigilance along the LAC

www.firstpost.com

 

[shade2]

"Truth was perhaps a little more pedestrian. Modi’s participation in a major non-Western global governance platform, that fashions itself as an alternative to US-led forums such as G7, was at stake. Xi needed to buy India’s presence. It looks bad for a leader with his strategic ambitions – challenging the US-led global system and ushering in a multipolar order – failing to ensure the participation of a foundational member and a neighbour. The successful holding of a global, consequential, non-Western multilateral summit is crucial if China is to increase its global sway and heft.


Doklam, therefore, saw a tactical reprieve from Beijing. Within a year, it quietly redeployed the troops and built hard, permanent infrastructure all around the contested valley, perpetually changing the ‘facts on the ground’.

The Doklam crisis and its ‘resolution’ offers some useful lessons for the current disengagement at Depsang Plains and Demchok"

Do not oversell India-China détente; while not a mean feat, it is a limited tactical manouvre for a very specific goal

The disengagement process, timed with yet another summit, should result in even more eagle-eyed vigilance along the LAC

www.firstpost.com

It's not just Brics, they probably have something else planned in the SCS so need to close the front with us.

 

[mist_consecutive]

From my POV, the gap is increasing after 2019.

On military, Type15 and J20 were massive deployed after 2020, and infra built-up on border area were faster than India side. Ur rafale fighter purchase program used 10 yrs to get 72, but China made 70 J20s in one yr, according recent Jane's report.

On economy side, India GDP gap with China was increasing. China from 2022 finally almost conquered US chip sanctions and built full supply chain. And in 2019, EV and renewable energy sectors were not as strong as now. Plus, the trade surplus didn't as $100B with India as last two yrs, and Chinese mobile phone didn't have 80% share like 2024. And Make in India initiative was not that successful as it claimed.

I m happy with the tensions on borders are decreased now, but please at aleast speak with true data, not just empty talk. @srev2004

Yes if we keep infra building aside bcoz that's where things are happening fast and the gap is truly decreasing hope that after this so called disengagement we don't stop that
But if we come to equipments and materials yes things are going way south for us
Our squadron strength is on rapid fall with no hope of increase in this decade
Our equipments are getting old and newer ones are not being ordered to replace them this creating void in both industry and our capabilities
Pathetic PPE and poor standardization
No way our military is growing wrt to our economy

I will agree with @srev2004 here. Power difference was biggest in 2019-2020. Infact I was surprised why China didn't take the COVID opportunity and already hot-borders to continue the military campaign.

Why that is the case ?

• Air Force - PLAAF already had superiority in numbers and technology (theoritically), IAF was still struggling with Mig-21 Bisons, Russian BVRs, poor AD-coverage and domestic fighter program nowhere in sight. While you can argue PLAAF is building 70+ J20s per year, power projection on Tibetian side will be tricky due to lack of airbases and high-maintenance requirements of 5th gen. jets available only at specialised airbases.
  
  
• Army - I don't see any significant improvement in PLA equipment or organization in 2020 vs. now. Apart from new ARs and single-tube NVGs provided to frontline troops I don't see any significant power improvement. On the other hand IA has re-organized its command & force structure to be a more offensive-oriented force in all sectors. Equipment-wise IA has now plans to induct Zorawar, LCH and kamikaze drones (in large numbers). Esp. in drone sector, IA has done good progress which can put significant headache to PLA.
  
  
• Infrastructure - This is where I will say China did a huge mistake. Military infra on Indian side was crumbling to non-existent at best. Our supply lines strained and supply depots far and few. China already had good infrastructure on ther side. Yes, they improved it a lot, but so did we and now a "cakewalk" into Indian side is not possible anywhere, anymore.
  
  
• Military Readiness - Also can say being prepared for war. China being the aggressor, they had infinite time to prepare. They did, but somehow failed to commit properly. We had to manage from whatever we can get in 2020, our industries were shut due to COVID, and we had to even import cold-weather clothing from US.
  

Matter of fact if China put more dedication they could have captured DBO + Depsang, Gogra peninsula and perhaps large chunk of Northern Pangong Tso in the first month of military campaign if they put more dedication.

Now you just gave us time to prepare and be ready.

 

[Azaad]

From my POV, the gap is increasing after 2019.

On military, Type15 and J20 were massive deployed after 2020, and infra built-up on border area were faster than India side. Ur rafale fighter purchase program used 10 yrs to get 72, but China made 70 J20s in one yr, according recent Jane's report.

On economy side, India GDP gap with China was increasing. China from 2022 finally almost conquered US chip sanctions and built full supply chain. And in 2019, EV and renewable energy sectors were not as strong as now. Plus, the trade surplus didn't as $100B with India as last two yrs, and Chinese mobile phone didn't have 80% share like 2024. And Make in India initiative was not that successful as it claimed.

I m happy with the tensions on borders are decreased now, but please at aleast speak with true data, not just empty talk. @srev2004

The gap may be 100 fold like it was when the US took on the Viet Cong but at the end of the day your Type 15s or J-20s even if they are in the thousands aren't going to get you the LAC or whatever those goals are , boots on the ground are . And Mountain warfare is particularly treacherous . It eats up men . For the attacking side to prevail they require a ratio of anywhere between 5:1 to 7:1 to more depending on whom you're asking.

If you point out to 1962 , the PLA had 2-3 divisions down there vs a few brigades of ours & had been practising mountain terrain warfare from 1959 the year the Dalai Lama quit Lhasa for India & your great helmsman 1.0 decided it was time for a short war with India contrasted with our leadership who were fast asleep & the army totally unprepared with no modernisation whatsoever since the end of WW-2 .

That's not the case now . Can great helmsman 2.0 win this one against India ? He probably can if he's willing to throw everything he has into it . But then his dream of becoming the great unifier in Chinese history will go down the drain for there's no way he's going to achieve both .

Factor all this into your calculation before arriving at a conclusion.

 

[daya]

There is lack of will power ... sau baaton ki ek baat....

 

[Blood+]

The gap may be 100 fold like it was when the US took on the Viet Cong but at the end of the day your Type 15s or J-20s even if they are in the thousands aren't going to get you the LAC or whatever those goals are , boots on the ground are . And Mountain warfare is particularly treacherous . It eats up men . For the attacking side to prevail they require a ratio of anywhere between 5:1 to 7:1 to more depending on whom you're asking.

If you point out to 1962 , the PLA had 2-3 divisions down there vs a few brigades of ours & had been practising mountain terrain warfare from 1959 the year the Dalai Lama quit Lhasa for India & your great helmsman 1.0 decided it was time for a short war with India contrasted with our leadership who were fast asleep & the army totally unprepared with no modernisation whatsoever since the end of WW-2 .

That's not the case now . Can great helmsman 2.0 win this one against India ? He probably can if he's willing to throw everything he has into it . But then his dream of becoming the great unifier in Chinese history will go down the drain for there's no way he's going to achieve both .

Factor all this into your calculation before arriving at a conclusion.

Just to add a little tidbit to that part in bold - the ratio is about superiority in total firepower rather than manpower in the strictest of terms; BUT when it comes to mountain warfare, firepower becomes synonymous with manpower for obvious reasons.

 

[shade2]

. Power difference was biggest in 2019-2020. Infact I was surprised why China didn't take the COVID opportunity and already hot-borders to continue the military campaign.

Because they want to blow that on Taiwan, not dying in the Himalayas

Look, if you had one shot or one opportunity
To seize everything you ever wanted in one moment
Would you capture it or just let it slip?

 

[hurrians]

.china withdrew from the said friction points after 1962
. obviously strategically and logistically it can't maintain permanent control over these positions
. The reason for re occupation may be related to saa jis threat after art 370 revocation that aksai chin will be recovered
. Tibet (near aksai chin) is located far off from economic center of china, but geography favours Chinese in the frontier region

. During pandemic there was call by Xi to resolutely defend the border (entire sea land border with all nations)

.although power differential is there, china may not be willing to allocate more resources to India border than what India is willing to, as a percentage of their defence spending.

 

[jaijaganath]

I will agree with @srev2004 here. Power difference was biggest in 2019-2020. Infact I was surprised why China didn't take the COVID opportunity and already hot-borders to continue the military campaign.

Why that is the case ?

• Air Force - PLAAF already had superiority in numbers and technology (theoritically), IAF was still struggling with Mig-21 Bisons, Russian BVRs, poor AD-coverage and domestic fighter program nowhere in sight. While you can argue PLAAF is building 70+ J20s per year, power projection on Tibetian side will be tricky due to lack of airbases and high-maintenance requirements of 5th gen. jets available only at specialised airbases.
  
  
• Army - I don't see any significant improvement in PLA equipment or organization in 2020 vs. now. Apart from new ARs and single-tube NVGs provided to frontline troops I don't see any significant power improvement. On the other hand IA has re-organized its command & force structure to be a more offensive-oriented force in all sectors. Equipment-wise IA has now plans to induct Zorawar, LCH and kamikaze drones (in large numbers). Esp. in drone sector, IA has done good progress which can put significant headache to PLA.
  
  
• Infrastructure - This is where I will say China did a huge mistake. Military infra on Indian side was crumbling to non-existent at best. Our supply lines strained and supply depots far and few. China already had good infrastructure on ther side. Yes, they improved it a lot, but so did we and now a "cakewalk" into Indian side is not possible anywhere, anymore.
  
  
• Military Readiness - Also can say being prepared for war. China being the aggressor, they had infinite time to prepare. They did, but somehow failed to commit properly. We had to manage from whatever we can get in 2020, our industries were shut due to COVID, and we had to even import cold-weather clothing from US.

Matter of fact if China put more dedication they could have captured DBO + Depsang, Gogra peninsula and perhaps large chunk of Northern Pangong Tso in the first month of military campaign if they put more dedication.

Now you just gave us time to prepare and be ready.

In case of air force we are still in horrible state
Tejas mk1a has not been delivered yet due to engine issues
Reason could be titanium or amreeki arm-twisting but we can't afford delay now entire program has to be pushed making our situation worse
Aircrafts will start retiring soon
Mig-21 jaguars m-2000s
All we have is mk1a which has got delayed due to engine supplies
Even in future there is no guarantee that situation will be favourable who knows where India-US relations will go again putting tejas mk2 in trouble
Yes we can improve our AD cover but even u know nothing compensates aircrafts

Even their infantry is better equipped and standardized than ours
Better rifles+scopes and single tube nvg are great addition for infantry
Moreover making their night fighting capabilities are better than ours along with armoured columns that too capable fighting in night

Infrastructure part I agree as u can my statement in quoted post

 

[Azaad]

View: https://youtu.be/CMu3QTY8O8Y?si=cdah7ICJ_P4tw7dg

Interesting trivia

 

[shade2]

.china withdrew from the said friction points after 1962
. obviously strategically and logistically it can't maintain permanent control over these positions
. The reason for re occupation may be related to saa jis threat after art 370 revocation that aksai chin will be recovered
. Tibet (near aksai chin) is located far off from economic center of china, but geography favours Chinese in the frontier region

. During pandemic there was call by Xi to resolutely defend the border (entire sea land border with all nations)

.although power differential is there, china may not be willing to allocate more resources to India border than what India is willing to, as a percentage of their defence spending.

Reason was we were weak and they faced no consequences.
It was Wuhan Virus time and Biden was newly elected and both G2 gandus were enjoying their honeymoon period at this point of time.

Most of their stunts seem to have the sole purpose of getting us to bend the knee or having an advantage over us viz geographical features in case of a hot war

 

[Blood+]

On military, Type15 and J20 were massive deployed after 2020, and infra built-up on border area were faster than India side. Ur rafale fighter purchase program used 10 yrs to get 72, but China made 70 J20s in one yr, according recent Jane's report.

Can you drive those ZTZ-15s to the hilltops??

 

[samsaptaka]

What are the chances of us getting backstabbed after this

Like others said, only a question of 'when' and not 'if'. But chai biskoot MEA babus think otherwise I bet and may already have declared victory for this 'koi nahin ghusa' episode and may even say 'koi nahin ghusega aage bhi' . And then when the inevitable happens , act surprised and issue statements like 'look at the bigger picture '

"When getting banged from all sides, clench your buttocks and make peace with the guy fucking you in the ass" - Sun Tchutiya : The Art of Lol

ROFL, reason#122 to be on DFB.....membran making jokes...thanks made my day !

 

[Bleh]

Are we reading the same news ? When did this happen ? Where did we moved back and formed new buffer zones ?



Bro got A1 quality hashish directly from Afghanistan to smoke ! What's next in your hallucinations ? China sitting at Raj Bhavan and Chinese soldiers knocking on your doors ?

I don't know what you've been reading but I sure hope I'm the one in hash. Looking in the one that are not feel-good?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/04/16/china/ladakh-india-china-border-intl-hnk

Other quotes:

Doklam, therefore, saw a tactical reprieve from Beijing. Within a year, it quietly redeployed the troops and built hard, permanent infrastructure all around the contested valley, perpetually changing the ‘facts on the ground’

In all other locations, where disengagement was achieved earlier and buffer zones were created–Northern banks of Pangong Tso, Galwan, Hot Springs and Gogra–patrolling would be resumed by both sides.
However, the patrolling will be done up to the “agreed perceived LAC”. Sources said both countries have various perceptions of the LAC. However, there is an informal agreement between both sides on what the LAC would be. “The patrolling will happen on ‘agreed perceived LAC’ and would end about 200 to 300 metres short of it,” a source said.

It was discussed, that in every single instance ot is the Chinese who hold the disputed border locations where the stopped us & Indians are based few miles back from where they're coming. So unless Chinks are dismantling everything & pulling back several miles, white any movement from our us, any mutual buffers are essentially Indian retreat.

 

[mist_consecutive]

I don't know what you've been reading but I sure hope I'm the one in hash. Looking in the one that are not feel-good?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/04/16/china/ladakh-india-china-border-intl-hnk

Other quotes:



It was discussed, that in every single instance ot is the Chinese who hold the disputed border locations where the stopped us & Indians are based few miles back from where they're coming. So unless Chinks are dismantling everything & pulling back several miles, white any movement from our us, any mutual buffers are essentially Indian retreat.

> CNN (Anti-India)
> Article from April (Not updated information)

What's next ? You are going to tell me that Afghanistan, Palestine & Somalia are happier than India because your gora masters reported it (toh sahi hi hoga na !).

Listen buddy, I am the best source of information on Indo-China border unless you physically go to inspect the borders yourself. Why ? Because I have been looking at satellite images since the conflict started in 2020.

Now, whether you choose to believe me, Indian Army, or Indian news sources is upto you. I cannot force you to believe something.

Both the information you posted about Doklam, as well as Ladakh disengagement is false and/or misinterpreted.