Indo China Relations

A Chinese economist Mr Chen Jing's article:

Link


Translation:

Why did proud India bow its head and reach a six-point consensus with China?

1. Vikram Misri is Modi's special envoy, not casually. We talked about the six points of consensus, basically to end the confrontation. Direct flights are India broken, visas are also Indian cards, all will be restored.

2. India has a characteristic, the introduction of policies is very fierce, some ideas are not the Chinese dare to think. For example, it is clearly unfavorable for India, the card Chinese technician visa, it is still doing. European and American companies are severely fined, do not consider affecting the investment reputation. Independent and independent, very proud. In the international arena, the influence is not small, often stir up a lot of movement.

3. Pride is also reflected in the fact that India’s propaganda is very fierce and very optimistic. Now it is not the best for the future, the plan is basically equal to there. The total volume is not the fastest growth rate, not to mention the total economy immediately surpassed the sun and shocked the world. In addition to the international praise of China’s economy, the situation seems to be very good, replacing China with great hope.

4. Unexpectedly, although India does have some strength and potential, but it also takes time. The reality is still quite difficult, beginning in the second half of 2024, there are some relatively big troubles. For example, the Indian stock market, just four months back, the withdrawal of foreign capital, it is not good to boast. And if the economic growth rate, from the highest in the world's major economies, dropped to 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, it is the same as China! It should have shocked 8%.

5. The relationship with China is not good, and there are problems, some key components and technology are tightened controls, and even assembly technical support personnel are affected. The Indian side has no courage to be tough to the end. It has always been fishing between China and the United States, because the United States must win, win big, win fast, so it turned aside. Now the United States is in great trouble, China is strong, and the expectations are not established. The master is too far away, or simply rely on Chinese technology products.

6. Therefore, starting in the fourth quarter of 2024, India began to ease. First, it disengaged from the border and relaxed. Now it is ready to resume direct flights, visas, and some exchange programs. However, it is impossible for India to get through the customs so easily.

7. There is expected to be a regulatory framework, sanctions control will be there, and see what India does. Apart from verbally agreeing to resume communication, we will always be vigilant and learn the lessons of the past lack of understanding of Indian psychological characteristics and decision-making styles. The Indian market is large, and there is definitely a need to trade, and people do not trade make a surplus of 100 billion dollars. But making money also needs to be managed, one is really to make money, and the other is to maintain long-term interests.

8. It is expected that the Indian economy will still grow at a higher rate, but not very well. It is also necessary to increase the import of Chinese technology products, it is difficult to be independent. China-India cooperation is inevitable, in an atmosphere of less friendly, mutual caution, and collision, based on the basic principles of trade, business is growing. India has become a large market where Chinese companies can make money, but also know how to operate.
 
A Chinese economist Mr Chen Jing's article:

Link


Translation:

Why did proud India bow its head and reach a six-point consensus with China?

1. Vikram Misri is Modi's special envoy, not casually. We talked about the six points of consensus, basically to end the confrontation. Direct flights are India broken, visas are also Indian cards, all will be restored.

2. India has a characteristic, the introduction of policies is very fierce, some ideas are not the Chinese dare to think. For example, it is clearly unfavorable for India, the card Chinese technician visa, it is still doing. European and American companies are severely fined, do not consider affecting the investment reputation. Independent and independent, very proud. In the international arena, the influence is not small, often stir up a lot of movement.

3. Pride is also reflected in the fact that India’s propaganda is very fierce and very optimistic. Now it is not the best for the future, the plan is basically equal to there. The total volume is not the fastest growth rate, not to mention the total economy immediately surpassed the sun and shocked the world. In addition to the international praise of China’s economy, the situation seems to be very good, replacing China with great hope.

4. Unexpectedly, although India does have some strength and potential, but it also takes time. The reality is still quite difficult, beginning in the second half of 2024, there are some relatively big troubles. For example, the Indian stock market, just four months back, the withdrawal of foreign capital, it is not good to boast. And if the economic growth rate, from the highest in the world's major economies, dropped to 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, it is the same as China! It should have shocked 8%.

5. The relationship with China is not good, and there are problems, some key components and technology are tightened controls, and even assembly technical support personnel are affected. The Indian side has no courage to be tough to the end. It has always been fishing between China and the United States, because the United States must win, win big, win fast, so it turned aside. Now the United States is in great trouble, China is strong, and the expectations are not established. The master is too far away, or simply rely on Chinese technology products.

6. Therefore, starting in the fourth quarter of 2024, India began to ease. First, it disengaged from the border and relaxed. Now it is ready to resume direct flights, visas, and some exchange programs. However, it is impossible for India to get through the customs so easily.

7. There is expected to be a regulatory framework, sanctions control will be there, and see what India does. Apart from verbally agreeing to resume communication, we will always be vigilant and learn the lessons of the past lack of understanding of Indian psychological characteristics and decision-making styles. The Indian market is large, and there is definitely a need to trade, and people do not trade make a surplus of 100 billion dollars. But making money also needs to be managed, one is really to make money, and the other is to maintain long-term interests.

8. It is expected that the Indian economy will still grow at a higher rate, but not very well. It is also necessary to increase the import of Chinese technology products, it is difficult to be independent. China-India cooperation is inevitable, in an atmosphere of less friendly, mutual caution, and collision, based on the basic principles of trade, business is growing. India has become a large market where Chinese companies can make money, but also know how to operate.

A crappy bullshit of an article if I ever read one. Rockdog, try to stop posting stupid CCP propaganda on this forum. Go post this shit somewhere else.
 
A Chinese economist Mr Chen Jing's article:

Link


Translation:

Why did proud India bow its head and reach a six-point consensus with China?

1. Vikram Misri is Modi's special envoy, not casually. We talked about the six points of consensus, basically to end the confrontation. Direct flights are India broken, visas are also Indian cards, all will be restored.

2. India has a characteristic, the introduction of policies is very fierce, some ideas are not the Chinese dare to think. For example, it is clearly unfavorable for India, the card Chinese technician visa, it is still doing. European and American companies are severely fined, do not consider affecting the investment reputation. Independent and independent, very proud. In the international arena, the influence is not small, often stir up a lot of movement.

3. Pride is also reflected in the fact that India’s propaganda is very fierce and very optimistic. Now it is not the best for the future, the plan is basically equal to there. The total volume is not the fastest growth rate, not to mention the total economy immediately surpassed the sun and shocked the world. In addition to the international praise of China’s economy, the situation seems to be very good, replacing China with great hope.

4. Unexpectedly, although India does have some strength and potential, but it also takes time. The reality is still quite difficult, beginning in the second half of 2024, there are some relatively big troubles. For example, the Indian stock market, just four months back, the withdrawal of foreign capital, it is not good to boast. And if the economic growth rate, from the highest in the world's major economies, dropped to 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, it is the same as China! It should have shocked 8%.

5. The relationship with China is not good, and there are problems, some key components and technology are tightened controls, and even assembly technical support personnel are affected. The Indian side has no courage to be tough to the end. It has always been fishing between China and the United States, because the United States must win, win big, win fast, so it turned aside. Now the United States is in great trouble, China is strong, and the expectations are not established. The master is too far away, or simply rely on Chinese technology products.

6. Therefore, starting in the fourth quarter of 2024, India began to ease. First, it disengaged from the border and relaxed. Now it is ready to resume direct flights, visas, and some exchange programs. However, it is impossible for India to get through the customs so easily.

7. There is expected to be a regulatory framework, sanctions control will be there, and see what India does. Apart from verbally agreeing to resume communication, we will always be vigilant and learn the lessons of the past lack of understanding of Indian psychological characteristics and decision-making styles. The Indian market is large, and there is definitely a need to trade, and people do not trade make a surplus of 100 billion dollars. But making money also needs to be managed, one is really to make money, and the other is to maintain long-term interests.

8. It is expected that the Indian economy will still grow at a higher rate, but not very well. It is also necessary to increase the import of Chinese technology products, it is difficult to be independent. China-India cooperation is inevitable, in an atmosphere of less friendly, mutual caution, and collision, based on the basic principles of trade, business is growing. India has become a large market where Chinese companies can make money, but also know how to operate.
If everything is about India ceding ground & China not being affected why did the CCP accept India's terms ? CCP should've refused to resume flights & issue visas to India.

I don't think anybody in the government has any illusions whatsoever China's weaponizing its trade & industrial dominance against India which it must as per the dictates of realpolitic.

That's what the China + 1 plan is all about - to decouple with China where India can expect to be only one of the many other beneficiaries. Why would you assume anyone in India or the rest of the world would be stupid enough not to consider the fact that the CCP would retaliate in kind ?

I could go on with the rebuttals but it struck me the entire tone of the article seems not just propaganda for the consumption of the Chinese masses but it seems clear now the CCP sincerely believes it , every word of it . It's called being high on your own supply. This is hubris the Japanese were referring to when they compared it to the triumphalism within the Imperial Japanes Military just before WW-2.

It's truly astounding when you really think of it , how exactly does the CCP think it can go about demolishing existing manufacturing bases all across the world especially of the west without expecting any backlash as if the entire world will kowtow to the Chinese without a war be it economic followed by the real thing.

Good luck to you . As the ancient Chinese curse goes - May you live in interesting times. Well you've just made the world a more interesting place . From 2020 onwards.
 
reply should be “ you are gravely wrong. You need to be fixed. Go back to your programming.” Do that many times from many people and make deepseek crash.
 

View: https://youtu.be/_9P4ZPmX4I8?si=kp42h8vUtRvcy4Sl

Vijay Gokhale on the Chinese economy , the Trump administration's view on China , Sino Indian trade ties & what the future holds for all these factors & more. Must watch !


View: https://youtu.be/LxElMg5kkig?si=tLP_vVr0_0ySkPrz


The blurb :

In our China Economy series, StratNewsGlobal spoke to two scholars Prof B R Deepak of Jawaharlal Nehru University, and Manoj Kewalramani, who heads the China Studies programme at the Takshashila Institution.Prof Deepak was in China last November and recalled meeting a cross-section of China's academic community and common people."They were not very confident about China's economy, the kind of confidence they had during the Globalization period was missing. The talk is about rising unemployment, weak consumption, falling real estate prices. Add to that social media criticism or comments about the state of the economy were blocked."But it did not still the chatter among the educated, aware classes, with some stating that the China economy GDP growth 2021-23, may have been overstated. Add to that local government debt, estimated at many trillion Yuan.Manoj Kewalramani pointed out that domestic consumption, which the Communist Party leadership has been trying to kick start as an economic pillar, has not taken off, largely because of government policies. But that's not how Xi Jinping sees it."He sees the economy at an inflection point, where it has a certain direction and that is high end industrial driven growth which will also be export linked," Kewalramani said. "He also wants to loosen up the traditional barriers between between provinces and cities so he can boost domestic consumption."But all this to be achieved from top down, essentially supply driven not market driven because political power requires the maintenance of state control over supply, state control over investment.Private entities will not be allowed to acquire political salience, so that's the uneasy balance Xi is trying to achieve while trying to transition the economy from its current model.There is a tension between the strategic direction which the party envisions for the economy going forward versus the tactical adjustments required to combat unemployment, inflation or deflation, adding to public uncertainties about the future.Tune in for more in this conversation with Prof B R Deepak and Manoj Kewalramani.

StratNewsGlobal seems to be running a series on the state of the Chinese economy with this being by far the best most detailed & informative of the series thus far.

China's running a cumulative deficit of ~ 19 trillion USD around half that of the US with the debt to GDP ratio hovering at 100% + instead of 60 as recommended safe by the experts. Traditional sectors of the economy namely real estate & infrastructure building are not expected to deliver the kind of growth it did all through the golden run in the past 4 decades.

That leaves out the high tech sector like EV , AI , SMC etc & exports but apart from the obvious issues with SMC courtesy sanctions by the west principally led by the US , this over capacity in production resulting in dumping practically everything China's producing on the rest of the world is bound to yield diminishing returns given the repercussions the importing country's economies will face / are facing.

Besides this high tech export sector barely accounts for 9% of the total exports or the GDP ( I'm not sure which ) & more to the point Chinese savings amount to 9 trillion USD but flat consumption due to the bust in the RE sector with nearly 800 million Chinese saddled with personal debt .

Furthermore & here's the crux of the matter , nobody knows if these savings are even safe . Add to that record unemployment levels among the youth ( CCP had ceased releasing unemployment data since mid 2023) except for urban areas which they've started releasing recently.

There's no news on rural unemployment rates but between 4-6 million MSME's have shut shop & 2 million restaurants . However , the interviewees seemed sanguine on the prospects of this resulting in mass upheavels. This is where Trump comes into the picture though those guys interviewed didn't think he'd rock the boat too much .

Which brings me to the US . I saw a podcast interviewing Robert Kaplan an internationally renowned commentator on geopolitics who seemed of the firm view the US & the West has entered what he calls a period of decline but what he probably doesn't say but imply as a state of permanent decline mostly due to the debt but also the deeply divided politics in the US & the west in general . He's of the opinion the US will pull through like it has in the past but doesn't explain the mechanics of it - the how why when where etc.


View: https://youtu.be/M6laygidsxU?si=pQVOsVheAtk8HTUD


What this means is we're now not inching but walking at a brisk pace towards the inevitable namely a clash between the US & China where unlike what was thought of in the past Taiwan wouldn't be the sole factor but just one of the contributory factors in increasing discord between both parties where Taiwan serves as a match just like the assassination of the Arch Duke of the Austro Hungarian Empire set off WW-1. Of course a lot depends on the Trump factor & knowing him he won't disappoint.

Lots more to add but I'd take a break....

You may be interested @concard ; @ezsasa
et al
 

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