Indo China Relations

[patrioticvietnamese]

 

[Azaad]

View: https://youtu.be/_9P4ZPmX4I8?si=kp42h8vUtRvcy4Sl

Vijay Gokhale on the Chinese economy , the Trump administration's view on China , Sino Indian trade ties & what the future holds for all these factors & more. Must watch !

 

[rockdog]

A Chinese economist Mr Chen Jing's article:

Link

Sina Visitor System

Translation:

Why did proud India bow its head and reach a six-point consensus with China?

1. Vikram Misri is Modi's special envoy, not casually. We talked about the six points of consensus, basically to end the confrontation. Direct flights are India broken, visas are also Indian cards, all will be restored.

2. India has a characteristic, the introduction of policies is very fierce, some ideas are not the Chinese dare to think. For example, it is clearly unfavorable for India, the card Chinese technician visa, it is still doing. European and American companies are severely fined, do not consider affecting the investment reputation. Independent and independent, very proud. In the international arena, the influence is not small, often stir up a lot of movement.

3. Pride is also reflected in the fact that India’s propaganda is very fierce and very optimistic. Now it is not the best for the future, the plan is basically equal to there. The total volume is not the fastest growth rate, not to mention the total economy immediately surpassed the sun and shocked the world. In addition to the international praise of China’s economy, the situation seems to be very good, replacing China with great hope.

4. Unexpectedly, although India does have some strength and potential, but it also takes time. The reality is still quite difficult, beginning in the second half of 2024, there are some relatively big troubles. For example, the Indian stock market, just four months back, the withdrawal of foreign capital, it is not good to boast. And if the economic growth rate, from the highest in the world's major economies, dropped to 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, it is the same as China! It should have shocked 8%.

5. The relationship with China is not good, and there are problems, some key components and technology are tightened controls, and even assembly technical support personnel are affected. The Indian side has no courage to be tough to the end. It has always been fishing between China and the United States, because the United States must win, win big, win fast, so it turned aside. Now the United States is in great trouble, China is strong, and the expectations are not established. The master is too far away, or simply rely on Chinese technology products.

6. Therefore, starting in the fourth quarter of 2024, India began to ease. First, it disengaged from the border and relaxed. Now it is ready to resume direct flights, visas, and some exchange programs. However, it is impossible for India to get through the customs so easily.

7. There is expected to be a regulatory framework, sanctions control will be there, and see what India does. Apart from verbally agreeing to resume communication, we will always be vigilant and learn the lessons of the past lack of understanding of Indian psychological characteristics and decision-making styles. The Indian market is large, and there is definitely a need to trade, and people do not trade make a surplus of 100 billion dollars. But making money also needs to be managed, one is really to make money, and the other is to maintain long-term interests.

8. It is expected that the Indian economy will still grow at a higher rate, but not very well. It is also necessary to increase the import of Chinese technology products, it is difficult to be independent. China-India cooperation is inevitable, in an atmosphere of less friendly, mutual caution, and collision, based on the basic principles of trade, business is growing. India has become a large market where Chinese companies can make money, but also know how to operate.

 

[Blademaster]

A Chinese economist Mr Chen Jing's article:

Link

Sina Visitor System

Translation:

Why did proud India bow its head and reach a six-point consensus with China?

1. Vikram Misri is Modi's special envoy, not casually. We talked about the six points of consensus, basically to end the confrontation. Direct flights are India broken, visas are also Indian cards, all will be restored.

2. India has a characteristic, the introduction of policies is very fierce, some ideas are not the Chinese dare to think. For example, it is clearly unfavorable for India, the card Chinese technician visa, it is still doing. European and American companies are severely fined, do not consider affecting the investment reputation. Independent and independent, very proud. In the international arena, the influence is not small, often stir up a lot of movement.

3. Pride is also reflected in the fact that India’s propaganda is very fierce and very optimistic. Now it is not the best for the future, the plan is basically equal to there. The total volume is not the fastest growth rate, not to mention the total economy immediately surpassed the sun and shocked the world. In addition to the international praise of China’s economy, the situation seems to be very good, replacing China with great hope.

4. Unexpectedly, although India does have some strength and potential, but it also takes time. The reality is still quite difficult, beginning in the second half of 2024, there are some relatively big troubles. For example, the Indian stock market, just four months back, the withdrawal of foreign capital, it is not good to boast. And if the economic growth rate, from the highest in the world's major economies, dropped to 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, it is the same as China! It should have shocked 8%.

5. The relationship with China is not good, and there are problems, some key components and technology are tightened controls, and even assembly technical support personnel are affected. The Indian side has no courage to be tough to the end. It has always been fishing between China and the United States, because the United States must win, win big, win fast, so it turned aside. Now the United States is in great trouble, China is strong, and the expectations are not established. The master is too far away, or simply rely on Chinese technology products.

6. Therefore, starting in the fourth quarter of 2024, India began to ease. First, it disengaged from the border and relaxed. Now it is ready to resume direct flights, visas, and some exchange programs. However, it is impossible for India to get through the customs so easily.

7. There is expected to be a regulatory framework, sanctions control will be there, and see what India does. Apart from verbally agreeing to resume communication, we will always be vigilant and learn the lessons of the past lack of understanding of Indian psychological characteristics and decision-making styles. The Indian market is large, and there is definitely a need to trade, and people do not trade make a surplus of 100 billion dollars. But making money also needs to be managed, one is really to make money, and the other is to maintain long-term interests.

8. It is expected that the Indian economy will still grow at a higher rate, but not very well. It is also necessary to increase the import of Chinese technology products, it is difficult to be independent. China-India cooperation is inevitable, in an atmosphere of less friendly, mutual caution, and collision, based on the basic principles of trade, business is growing. India has become a large market where Chinese companies can make money, but also know how to operate.

A crappy bullshit of an article if I ever read one. Rockdog, try to stop posting stupid CCP propaganda on this forum. Go post this shit somewhere else.

 

[Azaad]

A Chinese economist Mr Chen Jing's article:

Link

Sina Visitor System

Translation:

Why did proud India bow its head and reach a six-point consensus with China?

1. Vikram Misri is Modi's special envoy, not casually. We talked about the six points of consensus, basically to end the confrontation. Direct flights are India broken, visas are also Indian cards, all will be restored.

2. India has a characteristic, the introduction of policies is very fierce, some ideas are not the Chinese dare to think. For example, it is clearly unfavorable for India, the card Chinese technician visa, it is still doing. European and American companies are severely fined, do not consider affecting the investment reputation. Independent and independent, very proud. In the international arena, the influence is not small, often stir up a lot of movement.

3. Pride is also reflected in the fact that India’s propaganda is very fierce and very optimistic. Now it is not the best for the future, the plan is basically equal to there. The total volume is not the fastest growth rate, not to mention the total economy immediately surpassed the sun and shocked the world. In addition to the international praise of China’s economy, the situation seems to be very good, replacing China with great hope.

4. Unexpectedly, although India does have some strength and potential, but it also takes time. The reality is still quite difficult, beginning in the second half of 2024, there are some relatively big troubles. For example, the Indian stock market, just four months back, the withdrawal of foreign capital, it is not good to boast. And if the economic growth rate, from the highest in the world's major economies, dropped to 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, it is the same as China! It should have shocked 8%.

5. The relationship with China is not good, and there are problems, some key components and technology are tightened controls, and even assembly technical support personnel are affected. The Indian side has no courage to be tough to the end. It has always been fishing between China and the United States, because the United States must win, win big, win fast, so it turned aside. Now the United States is in great trouble, China is strong, and the expectations are not established. The master is too far away, or simply rely on Chinese technology products.

6. Therefore, starting in the fourth quarter of 2024, India began to ease. First, it disengaged from the border and relaxed. Now it is ready to resume direct flights, visas, and some exchange programs. However, it is impossible for India to get through the customs so easily.

7. There is expected to be a regulatory framework, sanctions control will be there, and see what India does. Apart from verbally agreeing to resume communication, we will always be vigilant and learn the lessons of the past lack of understanding of Indian psychological characteristics and decision-making styles. The Indian market is large, and there is definitely a need to trade, and people do not trade make a surplus of 100 billion dollars. But making money also needs to be managed, one is really to make money, and the other is to maintain long-term interests.

8. It is expected that the Indian economy will still grow at a higher rate, but not very well. It is also necessary to increase the import of Chinese technology products, it is difficult to be independent. China-India cooperation is inevitable, in an atmosphere of less friendly, mutual caution, and collision, based on the basic principles of trade, business is growing. India has become a large market where Chinese companies can make money, but also know how to operate.

If everything is about India ceding ground & China not being affected why did the CCP accept India's terms ? CCP should've refused to resume flights & issue visas to India.

I don't think anybody in the government has any illusions whatsoever China's weaponizing its trade & industrial dominance against India which it must as per the dictates of realpolitic.

That's what the China + 1 plan is all about - to decouple with China where India can expect to be only one of the many other beneficiaries. Why would you assume anyone in India or the rest of the world would be stupid enough not to consider the fact that the CCP would retaliate in kind ?

I could go on with the rebuttals but it struck me the entire tone of the article seems not just propaganda for the consumption of the Chinese masses but it seems clear now the CCP sincerely believes it , every word of it . It's called being high on your own supply. This is hubris the Japanese were referring to when they compared it to the triumphalism within the Imperial Japanes Military just before WW-2.

It's truly astounding when you really think of it , how exactly does the CCP think it can go about demolishing existing manufacturing bases all across the world especially of the west without expecting any backlash as if the entire world will kowtow to the Chinese without a war be it economic followed by the real thing.

Good luck to you . As the ancient Chinese curse goes - May you live in interesting times. Well you've just made the world a more interesting place . From 2020 onwards.

 

[Bleh]

View: https://twitter.com/theRichieMagnum/status/1885366431606292740

 

[Blademaster]

reply should be “ you are gravely wrong. You need to be fixed. Go back to your programming.” Do that many times from many people and make deepseek crash.

 

[rockdog]

Terms of Trade | India's economic worldview will have to change from China+1 to US+1

https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/terms-of-trade-indias-economic-worldview-will-have-to-change-from-china-1-to-us1-101737643756040.html

 

[Azaad]

View: https://youtu.be/_9P4ZPmX4I8?si=kp42h8vUtRvcy4Sl

Vijay Gokhale on the Chinese economy , the Trump administration's view on China , Sino Indian trade ties & what the future holds for all these factors & more. Must watch !

View: https://youtu.be/LxElMg5kkig?si=tLP_vVr0_0ySkPrz


The blurb :

In our China Economy series, StratNewsGlobal spoke to two scholars Prof B R Deepak of Jawaharlal Nehru University, and Manoj Kewalramani, who heads the China Studies programme at the Takshashila Institution.Prof Deepak was in China last November and recalled meeting a cross-section of China's academic community and common people."They were not very confident about China's economy, the kind of confidence they had during the Globalization period was missing. The talk is about rising unemployment, weak consumption, falling real estate prices. Add to that social media criticism or comments about the state of the economy were blocked."But it did not still the chatter among the educated, aware classes, with some stating that the China economy GDP growth 2021-23, may have been overstated. Add to that local government debt, estimated at many trillion Yuan.Manoj Kewalramani pointed out that domestic consumption, which the Communist Party leadership has been trying to kick start as an economic pillar, has not taken off, largely because of government policies. But that's not how Xi Jinping sees it."He sees the economy at an inflection point, where it has a certain direction and that is high end industrial driven growth which will also be export linked," Kewalramani said. "He also wants to loosen up the traditional barriers between between provinces and cities so he can boost domestic consumption."But all this to be achieved from top down, essentially supply driven not market driven because political power requires the maintenance of state control over supply, state control over investment.Private entities will not be allowed to acquire political salience, so that's the uneasy balance Xi is trying to achieve while trying to transition the economy from its current model.There is a tension between the strategic direction which the party envisions for the economy going forward versus the tactical adjustments required to combat unemployment, inflation or deflation, adding to public uncertainties about the future.Tune in for more in this conversation with Prof B R Deepak and Manoj Kewalramani.

StratNewsGlobal seems to be running a series on the state of the Chinese economy with this being by far the best most detailed & informative of the series thus far.

China's running a cumulative deficit of ~ 19 trillion USD around half that of the US with the debt to GDP ratio hovering at 100% + instead of 60 as recommended safe by the experts. Traditional sectors of the economy namely real estate & infrastructure building are not expected to deliver the kind of growth it did all through the golden run in the past 4 decades.

That leaves out the high tech sector like EV , AI , SMC etc & exports but apart from the obvious issues with SMC courtesy sanctions by the west principally led by the US , this over capacity in production resulting in dumping practically everything China's producing on the rest of the world is bound to yield diminishing returns given the repercussions the importing country's economies will face / are facing.

Besides this high tech export sector barely accounts for 9% of the total exports or the GDP ( I'm not sure which ) & more to the point Chinese savings amount to 9 trillion USD but flat consumption due to the bust in the RE sector with nearly 800 million Chinese saddled with personal debt .

Furthermore & here's the crux of the matter , nobody knows if these savings are even safe . Add to that record unemployment levels among the youth ( CCP had ceased releasing unemployment data since mid 2023) except for urban areas which they've started releasing recently.

There's no news on rural unemployment rates but between 4-6 million MSME's have shut shop & 2 million restaurants . However , the interviewees seemed sanguine on the prospects of this resulting in mass upheavels. This is where Trump comes into the picture though those guys interviewed didn't think he'd rock the boat too much .

Which brings me to the US . I saw a podcast interviewing Robert Kaplan an internationally renowned commentator on geopolitics who seemed of the firm view the US & the West has entered what he calls a period of decline but what he probably doesn't say but imply as a state of permanent decline mostly due to the debt but also the deeply divided politics in the US & the west in general . He's of the opinion the US will pull through like it has in the past but doesn't explain the mechanics of it - the how why when where etc.


View: https://youtu.be/M6laygidsxU?si=pQVOsVheAtk8HTUD


What this means is we're now not inching but walking at a brisk pace towards the inevitable namely a clash between the US & China where unlike what was thought of in the past Taiwan wouldn't be the sole factor but just one of the contributory factors in increasing discord between both parties where Taiwan serves as a match just like the assassination of the Arch Duke of the Austro Hungarian Empire set off WW-1. Of course a lot depends on the Trump factor & knowing him he won't disappoint.

Lots more to add but I'd take a break....

You may be interested @concard ; @ezsasa
et al

 

[concard]

View: https://youtu.be/LxElMg5kkig?si=tLP_vVr0_0ySkPrz


The blurb :



StratNewsGlobal seems to be running a series on the state of the Chinese economy with this being by far the best most detailed & informative of the series thus far.

China's running a cumulative deficit of ~ 19 trillion USD around half that of the US with the debt to GDP ratio hovering at 100% + instead of 60 as recommended safe by the experts. Traditional sectors of the economy namely real estate & infrastructure building are not expected to deliver the kind of growth it did all through the golden run in the past 4 decades.

That leaves out the high tech sector like EV , AI , SMC etc & exports but apart from the obvious issues with SMC courtesy sanctions by the west principally led by the US , this over capacity in production resulting in dumping practically everything China's producing on the rest of the world is bound to yield diminishing returns given the repercussions the importing country's economies will face / are facing.

Besides this high tech export sector barely accounts for 9% of the total exports or the GDP ( I'm not sure which ) & more to the point Chinese savings amount to 9 trillion USD but flat consumption due to the bust in the RE sector with nearly 800 million Chinese saddled with personal debt .

Furthermore & here's the crux of the matter , nobody knows if these savings are even safe . Add to that record unemployment levels among the youth ( CCP had ceased releasing unemployment data since mid 2023) except for urban areas which they've started releasing recently.

There's no news on rural unemployment rates but between 4-6 million MSME's have shut shop & 2 million restaurants . However , the interviewees seemed sanguine on the prospects of this resulting in mass upheavels. This is where Trump comes into the picture though those guys interviewed didn't think he'd rock the boat too much .

Which brings me to the US . I saw a podcast interviewing Robert Kaplan an internationally renowned commentator on geopolitics who seemed of the firm view the US & the West has entered what he calls a period of decline but what he probably doesn't say but imply as a state of permanent decline mostly due to the debt but also the deeply divided politics in the US & the west in general . He's of the opinion the US will pull through like it has in the past but doesn't explain the mechanics of it - the how why when where etc.


View: https://youtu.be/M6laygidsxU?si=pQVOsVheAtk8HTUD


What this means is we're now not inching but walking at a brisk pace towards the inevitable namely a clash between the US & China where unlike what was thought of in the past Taiwan wouldn't be the sole factor but just one of the contributory factors in increasing discord between both parties where Taiwan serves as a match just like the assassination of the Arch Duke of the Austro Hungarian Empire set off WW-1. Of course a lot depends on the Trump factor & knowing him he won't disappoint.

Lots more to add but I'd take a break....

You may be interested @concard ; @ezsasa
et al

Chinese want a monopoly on manufacturing everything they can. The only problem is other countries also have people. They also need jobs. And they also need to have money in their account to buy things China makes. China's high tech exports will never take off. US with it's influence can convince North America, Europe, Japan, South Korea, and to a certain extent South America never to buy China's semiconductors, aircrafts, and any other sensitive technology. Add India to that list you are looking at 2/3rd of the world who have the purchasing power completely shut off for China's exports. US did the same with Huawei.

As we go into 2030's there will be lot of pushback on Chinese imports. Trump will set the ball rolling as he already has. For us we better become energy independent and wipe out Crude Oil and Coal imports by 2040. That is the only way we can take on big scale manufacturing. Crude Oil and Coal import bill alone is reaching close to $300 billion for India which is not a good thing. We need to immediately ween ourselves of imported coal through more installations of Solar and Wind. Crude Oil can be substituted by battery electric vehicles and green hydrogen. We can sell our products with a green tag to the West. One industry at a time we need to put sweat and blood into it to beat Chinese advantage in manufacturing. And our problem is democracy. Today's policies will not be there tomorrow. I am somewhat pessimistic on this front unfortunately.

 

[Azaad]

View: https://youtu.be/LxElMg5kkig?si=tLP_vVr0_0ySkPrz


The blurb :



StratNewsGlobal seems to be running a series on the state of the Chinese economy with this being by far the best most detailed & informative of the series thus far.

China's running a cumulative deficit of ~ 19 trillion USD around half that of the US with the debt to GDP ratio hovering at 100% + instead of 60 as recommended safe by the experts. Traditional sectors of the economy namely real estate & infrastructure building are not expected to deliver the kind of growth it did all through the golden run in the past 4 decades.

That leaves out the high tech sector like EV , AI , SMC etc & exports but apart from the obvious issues with SMC courtesy sanctions by the west principally led by the US , this over capacity in production resulting in dumping practically everything China's producing on the rest of the world is bound to yield diminishing returns given the repercussions the importing country's economies will face / are facing.

Besides this high tech export sector barely accounts for 9% of the total exports or the GDP ( I'm not sure which ) & more to the point Chinese savings amount to 9 trillion USD but flat consumption due to the bust in the RE sector with nearly 800 million Chinese saddled with personal debt .

Furthermore & here's the crux of the matter , nobody knows if these savings are even safe . Add to that record unemployment levels among the youth ( CCP had ceased releasing unemployment data since mid 2023) except for urban areas which they've started releasing recently.

There's no news on rural unemployment rates but between 4-6 million MSME's have shut shop & 2 million restaurants . However , the interviewees seemed sanguine on the prospects of this resulting in mass upheavels. This is where Trump comes into the picture though those guys interviewed didn't think he'd rock the boat too much .

Which brings me to the US . I saw a podcast interviewing Robert Kaplan an internationally renowned commentator on geopolitics who seemed of the firm view the US & the West has entered what he calls a period of decline but what he probably doesn't say but imply as a state of permanent decline mostly due to the debt but also the deeply divided politics in the US & the west in general . He's of the opinion the US will pull through like it has in the past but doesn't explain the mechanics of it - the how why when where etc.


View: https://youtu.be/M6laygidsxU?si=pQVOsVheAtk8HTUD


What this means is we're now not inching but walking at a brisk pace towards the inevitable namely a clash between the US & China where unlike what was thought of in the past Taiwan wouldn't be the sole factor but just one of the contributory factors in increasing discord between both parties where Taiwan serves as a match just like the assassination of the Arch Duke of the Austro Hungarian Empire set off WW-1. Of course a lot depends on the Trump factor & knowing him he won't disappoint.

Lots more to add but I'd take a break....

You may be interested @concard ; @ezsasa
et al

View: https://youtu.be/K2Jxj86MJOk?si=JrjEqQiv95RvfBwt

This is the 3rd part of the series by StratNewsGlobal on China focusing on its economy but also the relationship with the US , India & rest of the world .

This time it's Jaidev Ranade in conversation with Nitin Gokhale which IMO is always worth a watch.

 

[rockdog]

View: https://youtu.be/Lh9WjJghlMk?si=NAqAel_1-4Z_e-rX

 

[rockdog]

Interesting Article:

Keji Mao
MA ’17
South Asia Studies

Keji is a member of the first cohort of the Tsinghua University-Johns Hopkins SAIS dual degree program.

Gaining Insights and Expertise from Two Global Institutions

Keji MaoMA ’17South Asia StudiesKeji is a member of the first cohort of the Tsinghua University-Johns Hopkins SAIS dual degree program. Prior to his graduate studies, Keji was a policy analyst for China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

sais.jhu.edu

It was widely discussed on our weibo that, after J36 was out, the USA suprisingly didn't shit on China too much but to Indian instead, we in China also witnessed a big wave to anti-Indian over USA
and Canada, now some scholar for India study made article tried to explain this; the China-India-USA triangle is truly interesting.


China has made new breakthroughs. Why has the United States launched an anti-India trend?

Recently, there has been an unprecedented wave of anti-India sentiment on American social media. Interestingly, it was the news of China’s sixth-generation aircraft and new breakthroughs in AI during the Christmas holidays that pushed this wave of anti-India sentiment to a climax.

It was clearly China that triggered the sentiment, but why did India become the target of public criticism in the end? ?



Indian immigrants dubbed 'Trojan elephants'

Phenomenally speaking, anti-India sentiment began with the internal strife between the red-necked MAGA faction of the Trump camp and the DOGE faction of the technology party. The focus of the dispute between the two sides is whether the United States should introduce more skilled immigrants to cope with increasingly fierce international competition. The DOGE faction represented by Vivek Ganapathy Ramaswamy fiercely attacked American culture and social values, pointing out that the United States needs a steady stream of overseas skilled immigrants to defeat China, and as many as 75% of them come from India.

However, this argument allowed the MAGA faction to instantly break through their defenses - not only because they advocated that skilled immigrants would inevitably occupy more local jobs, but also because this argument believed that the existing human resources reserves in the United States were equivalent to waste materials, which fundamentally denied the United States. IQ superiority and social competitiveness in mainstream society.

The American society, represented by MAGA, is inevitably shocked and annoyed when encountering China's unexpected impact. It has nowhere to vent its ignorance and anger. Now it is ridiculed and ridiculed by Ramaswamy and other Indians, so it is full of firepower to attack Indian immigrants. , Indian culture, and of course the country of India.




American netizens posted a message saying that Indians are not welcome

What’s even more interesting is that the overseas Chinese groups that have been criticized and suspected in the past have basically been able to escape unscathed this time. On the one hand, this is because of the unexpected scientific and technological achievements of China's industries. On the other hand, it is also because China's strength has given overseas Chinese a greater choice. If you criticize me, I will be back to China in return.

In fact, the above narrative is only superficial, and there may be a deeper meaning behind it.
The current round of anti-India sentiment in the United States is, to a certain extent, a preview of the "niche competition" that will inevitably break out in the future: If there is a scenario where China surpasses the United States, the United States will probably no longer be obsessed with China. competition, and are more likely to consider facing the "runner-up battle" against India.

What's even more terrible is that in recent years, the United States has spared no effort to promote India's industrialization and instigated India to compete for China's manufacturing center position. However, the final effect was lackluster and basically fell short of expectations.

Instead, India remains stuck in a financial-services economic model more similar to that of the United States, which indicates that more intense competition in the same industry may erupt between the United States and India. After all, the software, medicine, finance, and management consulting that India claims to be good at happen to be high-value industries that the United States strives to retain. As the manufacturing industry has been suppressed by China, the United States must not be willing to see the high-end service industry on which it relies for a living being eroded by India.

This makes it much clearer. To win the respect of a vicious opponent, you can only rely on hard power to surpass, and not just a little bit, but a huge leap in all directions - the lead is so big that the opponent only dares to vent his anger on the slaves and non mainstream races.

 

[Spacemarine]

Interesting Article:


It was widely discussed on our weibo that, after J36 was out, the USA suprisingly didn't shit on China too much but to Indian instead, we in China also witnessed a big wave to anti-Indian over USA
and Canada, now some scholar for India study made article tried to explain this; the China-India-USA triangle is truly interesting.


China has made new breakthroughs. Why has the United States launched an anti-India trend?

Recently, there has been an unprecedented wave of anti-India sentiment on American social media. Interestingly, it was the news of China’s sixth-generation aircraft and new breakthroughs in AI during the Christmas holidays that pushed this wave of anti-India sentiment to a climax.

It was clearly China that triggered the sentiment, but why did India become the target of public criticism in the end? ?

View attachment 24046

Indian immigrants dubbed 'Trojan elephants'

Phenomenally speaking, anti-India sentiment began with the internal strife between the red-necked MAGA faction of the Trump camp and the DOGE faction of the technology party. The focus of the dispute between the two sides is whether the United States should introduce more skilled immigrants to cope with increasingly fierce international competition. The DOGE faction represented by Vivek Ganapathy Ramaswamy fiercely attacked American culture and social values, pointing out that the United States needs a steady stream of overseas skilled immigrants to defeat China, and as many as 75% of them come from India.

However, this argument allowed the MAGA faction to instantly break through their defenses - not only because they advocated that skilled immigrants would inevitably occupy more local jobs, but also because this argument believed that the existing human resources reserves in the United States were equivalent to waste materials, which fundamentally denied the United States. IQ superiority and social competitiveness in mainstream society.

The American society, represented by MAGA, is inevitably shocked and annoyed when encountering China's unexpected impact. It has nowhere to vent its ignorance and anger. Now it is ridiculed and ridiculed by Ramaswamy and other Indians, so it is full of firepower to attack Indian immigrants. , Indian culture, and of course the country of India.


View attachment 24047

American netizens posted a message saying that Indians are not welcome

What’s even more interesting is that the overseas Chinese groups that have been criticized and suspected in the past have basically been able to escape unscathed this time. On the one hand, this is because of the unexpected scientific and technological achievements of China's industries. On the other hand, it is also because China's strength has given overseas Chinese a greater choice. If you criticize me, I will be back to China in return.

In fact, the above narrative is only superficial, and there may be a deeper meaning behind it.
The current round of anti-India sentiment in the United States is, to a certain extent, a preview of the "niche competition" that will inevitably break out in the future: If there is a scenario where China surpasses the United States, the United States will probably no longer be obsessed with China. competition, and are more likely to consider facing the "runner-up battle" against India.

What's even more terrible is that in recent years, the United States has spared no effort to promote India's industrialization and instigated India to compete for China's manufacturing center position. However, the final effect was lackluster and basically fell short of expectations.

Instead, India remains stuck in a financial-services economic model more similar to that of the United States, which indicates that more intense competition in the same industry may erupt between the United States and India. After all, the software, medicine, finance, and management consulting that India claims to be good at happen to be high-value industries that the United States strives to retain. As the manufacturing industry has been suppressed by China, the United States must not be willing to see the high-end service industry on which it relies for a living being eroded by India.

This makes it much clearer. To win the respect of a vicious opponent, you can only rely on hard power to surpass, and not just a little bit, but a huge leap in all directions - the lead is so big that the opponent only dares to vent his anger on the slaves and non mainstream races.

Actually this narrative benefits India as a nation more than USA, if it gets more and more difficult for Indian skilled resources to immigrate to USA, India will get more outsourcing jobs and keep its skilled resources.

Also impressive is the chinese manufacturing prowess but remember all this development happens on back to western consumerism and in small part due to Indian consumption and world knows this and trying to correct course.

Chinese consumption will not be able to support even a quarter of Chinese manufacturing capacity, CCP can play smart and try to route its produce through other countries but eventually the same routes will also get closed.

Chinese are looking at huge overcapacity and will try to sell dirt cheap and hurting its own manufacturing its not a good time to be in chinese manufacturing sector it will see sharp decline in coming years.

Regarding India USA relations, India knows USA and China both are enemies but its all about how we can manage the relationship with both

 

[rockdog]

Actually this narrative benefits India as a nation more than USA, if it gets more and more difficult for Indian skilled resources to immigrate to USA, India will get more outsourcing jobs and keep its skilled resources.

Also impressive is the chinese manufacturing prowess but remember all this development happens on back to western consumerism and in small part due to Indian consumption and world knows this and trying to correct course.

Chinese consumption will not be able to support even a quarter of Chinese manufacturing capacity, CCP can play smart and try to route its produce through other countries but eventually the same routes will also get closed.

Chinese are looking at huge overcapacity and will try to sell dirt cheap and hurting its own manufacturing its not a good time to be in chinese manufacturing sector it will see sharp decline in coming years.

Regarding India USA relations, India knows USA and China both are enemies but its all about how we can manage the relationship with both

Yes, build your own strength, don't rely on USA, it's even more unpredictable than China ^_^

 

[Spacemarine]

Yes, build your own strength, don't rely on USA, it's even more unpredictable than China ^_^

I say both of equally dangerous for India, CCP kingping Mr Eleven takes decisions based on how it will cement his hold on power, USA is still restricted in taking direct actions though due to so called democratic cloak it wears.

India has already seen USA deep state and Chinese CCP working in tandem in Indian North East(Trump might put a pause it for couple of years though)

I would expect Mr Eleven being squeezed internally in next coming years from other CCP gang leaders so a rash decision is on its way probably some clash in Arunachal on other hand US deep state for now will go in hibernation in India so some respite there…

But one thing is sure Chinese decline will be more gradual in Trump years than USA decline .. win win

 

[TringTringMonster]

The Chinese should first worry about their impending population collapse.

That's the biggest crisis the Chinese will be facing.

 

[rockdog]

I say both of equally dangerous for India, CCP kingping Mr Eleven takes decisions based on how it will cement his hold on power, USA is still restricted in taking direct actions though due to so called democratic cloak it wears.

India has already seen USA deep state and Chinese CCP working in tandem in Indian North East(Trump might put a pause it for couple of years though)

I would expect Mr Eleven being squeezed internally in next coming years from other CCP gang leaders so a rash decision is on its way probably some clash in Arunachal on other hand US deep state for now will go in hibernation in India so some respite there…

But one thing is sure Chinese decline will be more gradual in Trump years than USA decline .. win win

The Chinese should first worry about their impending population collapse.

That's the biggest crisis the Chinese will be facing.

It explains:


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WngdY65RWk&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fdefenceforumbharat.com%2F&source_ve_path=Mjg2NjY

Chinese consumption will not be able to support even a quarter of Chinese manufacturing capacity, CCP can play smart and try to route its produce through other countries but eventually the same routes will also get closed.

Chinese are looking at huge overcapacity and will try to sell dirt cheap and hurting its own manufacturing its not a good time to be in chinese manufacturing sector it will see sharp decline in coming years.

Then golden one Billion population (N.America + EU + JP + S.Korea) is 2.2 times GDP than China. From my estimation China now has 300-400 million people meert such living standard, which means there are 0.9-1 billion people still need manufacrture output to fulfill their lives. So there is actually no big "over capacitiy" issue, just government didn't bring enough income for them, which more a internal mis-management for certain period of time.

The good news is, after government made real estate bubble broken, houses are more affordable to common people. And my “main force” mobile phone for massive daily use, are $300 compared $500 in 2019; and mid-level sedan for mid class family, decrease as $25000 from $35000 when 2019.

Actually, from electriciy pricing, to mobile, LCD TV, decent cars there were 30% drop comparing 2019, not because of demand were weak, but for massive scale and further indutrilization.

And the bad news remians to nations like India. If China's exports pricing is 30% lower, India would use tarrif to defend, but if it's 50-100% lower, it's almost impossible to raise 100% taffri. Because unless you adding tax to all nations with 100% duty, you couldn't resist it by proxy strategy. But 100% tax means yourself is isolated to the whold world, this is the delimma for USA already.

PS. I check the Mouse price on our PDD/TEMU, it's $0.80 per, and same stuff on your Flipkart is $3.4 ...

There is one theory from Raghuram Rajan:

https://www.amazon.in/Breaking-Mould-Reimagining-Indias-Economic/dp/0670099899

Which said India need to give up the competition with China on manufacture ... If so, like the long artile i posted from Mr Keji Mao, you will face more bloody emeny USA.

So from my POV, the harder day for India is ahead.

 

[Spacemarine]

It explains:


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WngdY65RWk&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fdefenceforumbharat.com%2F&source_ve_path=Mjg2NjY




Then golden one Billion population (N.America + EU + JP + S.Korea) is 2.2 times GDP than China. From my estimation China now has 300-400 million people meert such living standard, which means there are 0.9-1 billion people still need manufacrture output to fulfill their lives. So there is actually no big "over capacitiy" issue, just government didn't bring enough income for them, which more a internal mis-management for certain period of time.

The good news is, after government made real estate bubble broken, houses are more affordable to common people. And my “main force” mobile phone for massive daily use, are $300 compared $500 in 2019; and mid-level sedan for mid class family, decrease as $25000 from $35000 when 2019.

Actually, from electriciy pricing, to mobile, LCD TV, decent cars there were 30% drop comparing 2019, not because of demand were weak, but for massive scale and further indutrilization.

And the bad news remians to nations like India. If China's exports pricing is 30% lower, India would use tarrif to defend, but if it's 50-100% lower, it's almost impossible to raise 100% taffri. Because unless you adding tax to all nations with 100% duty, you couldn't resist it by proxy strategy. But 100% tax means yourself is isolated to the whold world, this is the delimma for USA already.

PS. I check the Mouse price on our PDD/TEMU, it's $0.80 per, and same stuff on your Flipkart is $3.4 ...

There is one theory from Raghuram Rajan:

https://www.amazon.in/Breaking-Mould-Reimagining-Indias-Economic/dp/0670099899

View attachment 24056

Which said India need to give up the competition with China on manufacture ... If so, like the long artile i posted from Mr Keji Mao, you will face more bloody emeny USA.

So from my POV, the harder day for India is ahead.

lol is Raghuram Rajan CCP approved I thought that mofo was Deep state plant so this confirms it folks deep state CCP has same fckin agent lol.

Dude I am not sure what ur CCP gen AI is going to say to this but this is not a complex variables math problem now.

Chinese economy is basically cooked now…

CCP knows this pretty well, Chinese has built so much fckin real estate that it is enough to house 3 billion people but guess what chinese are barely 1.3 billion as of now and declining.

And what chinese did majority of them in boom years purchased an extra flat/extra commercial space basically sponsored by CCP banking system and all these Chinese are finding it hard to have any disposable income to meet the consumption level of similarly wealthy middle class of other nations and on top of that the one child policy of yesteryears has made sure they have more dependents on them than the earners so no chinese consumption will never reach the level of western or other wealthy asian nations.

Keeping this real estate bubble aside which by the way is almost 30-40% of chinese GDP

Here I am talking about the overcapacity which utilises so much energy and materials that in simple economics it can not be sustained simply reducing the price and eventually getting negative margins and no your chinese internal consumption can never be able to meet even a quarter of overcapacity built up.

Its simply the function of western tariffs on Chinese eventually will be crack chinese manufacturing sector and which will have domino effect on chinese real estate and banking sector.

Chinese CCP mouthpieces are going everywhere like the youtube video you posted they are saying they have already taken into account USA tariffs and all and they are saying they will work with EU lol.
This is simply a way to close your eyes when seeing a tsunami, the bluff will not work anymore.

Chinese economic decline is not overblown it’s simply law of economics, CCP can delay it for a decade at most by doing the same old infrastructure push it bet on earlier as manufacturing overcapacity will start biting it back pretty soon if not already.

I say chinese CCP economy will start showing decline with in couple of years which can not be hidden by media and internet firewall.

 

[TringTringMonster]

It explains:


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WngdY65RWk&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fdefenceforumbharat.com%2F&source_ve_path=Mjg2NjY




Then golden one Billion population (N.America + EU + JP + S.Korea) is 2.2 times GDP than China. From my estimation China now has 300-400 million people meert such living standard, which means there are 0.9-1 billion people still need manufacrture output to fulfill their lives. So there is actually no big "over capacitiy" issue, just government didn't bring enough income for them, which more a internal mis-management for certain period of time.

The good news is, after government made real estate bubble broken, houses are more affordable to common people. And my “main force” mobile phone for massive daily use, are $300 compared $500 in 2019; and mid-level sedan for mid class family, decrease as $25000 from $35000 when 2019.

Actually, from electriciy pricing, to mobile, LCD TV, decent cars there were 30% drop comparing 2019, not because of demand were weak, but for massive scale and further indutrilization.

And the bad news remians to nations like India. If China's exports pricing is 30% lower, India would use tarrif to defend, but if it's 50-100% lower, it's almost impossible to raise 100% taffri. Because unless you adding tax to all nations with 100% duty, you couldn't resist it by proxy strategy. But 100% tax means yourself is isolated to the whold world, this is the delimma for USA already.

PS. I check the Mouse price on our PDD/TEMU, it's $0.80 per, and same stuff on your Flipkart is $3.4 ...

There is one theory from Raghuram Rajan:

https://www.amazon.in/Breaking-Mould-Reimagining-Indias-Economic/dp/0670099899

View attachment 24056

Which said India need to give up the competition with China on manufacture ... If so, like the long artile i posted from Mr Keji Mao, you will face more bloody emeny USA.

So from my POV, the harder day for India is ahead.

Bro ya on serious copium. Your population is declining before you have reached high income. It's not even a slow decline. It's a full on population collapse that CCP can't do anything about except probably forcing people to have more babies lmao. Anyway, It's a classic case of middle income trap. Your harder days are just beginning. Just watch.