Indo US Relations

[Azaad]

i'll add one more layer to this... speculative of course.

muricans continue to make their moves to get land access to south china.

in past decade, from this perspective two most discussed in U.S discourse . vietnam and myanmar (not laos, not cambodia, not thailand).

- U.S-vietnam relationship has been on a upswing in the last decade.

- on myanmar.

when aung-sun-suu-kyi was in government, what was murican discourse focussing on?
chan/shan state which borders with china. they were having trouble negotiating with local military groups there.

when it was getting clear that myanmar army is not budging, what did muricans focus on?
rohingya.

what did myanmar army do to counter this threat?
they dethroned aung-sun-suu-kyi.

how does bangladesh come into the picture from this perspective?
land access to myanmar.

what did china do while all this was going on(especially in the last decade)?
they deepened ties with laos (land locked communist country),
built a submarine base between BoB and myanmar,
increased their investments in vietnam.

how did India get impacted in all this?
- Manipur unrest
- Bangladesh unrest

View attachment 7875

IMO the Myanmar crisis was more the result of breakdown of trust or talks (?) between the Tatmadaw & the NLD principally represented by Aung San Su Kyi regarding the constitutional role of the Tatmadaw in legislative bodies the government & the powers vested with them in that capacity.

If I'm not mistaken plans were to set aside the provision of a PM being disqualified from holding that office on account of a foreign spouse & install her as the PM post election. That set off the above chain of events into motion . We know the rest.

India's the best bet for the US to infiltrate Tibet Xinjiang & Yunnan like it was during Chacha's time . That's the reason we don't see overt Chinese action in the NE . They know what we're capable of if they begin their mischief.

However with the near collapse of the writ of the Tatmadaw in Northern Myanmar & CCP emerging as the sole arbiter between the former & various rebel groups with the CCP hunting with the hounds & running with the hares , there's always the temptation to get rebel groups common to both Myanmar & India like the Chin & Naga to initiate mischief in the NE claiming plausible deniability .

Alternatively China could use BD to destabilize the NE. Like Paxtan there are groups there who wouldn't think twice before becoming wilful tools to be used against India. This is one axis the US could also utilise possibly to foment trouble in the NE to get us to be more pliable in the US's Cold War against China.

If you look at the way they've been graduating their strategy against India beginning with support to the Khalistanis , then raking up the Nijjar murder followed by the Pannu case you can add what's happening in BD as part of that pattern.

As usual there are overlapping interests to contend with which sometimes becomes very difficult to track understand & analyse.

 

[Hari Sud]

India as friend of US

Who will be better from India’s point of view in US White House?

Is it better that Harris gets elected or Trump is back in the Whitehouse?

India -US relations have been in doldrums for the last two years as the Ukraine war began and India continued to buy cheap oil from Russia. The Biden advisors and Democrats have picked on India to unleash a torrent of funny charges like Pannu Affair, slowing down of GE engine supply and many more. The US ambassador in India is a quarrelsome man unleashing verbal abuse on India. Hence India would not have liked Biden and his advisors to continue for 4 more years. ….. Thank God.

Come November the choice before America is Harris or Trump.

At first thought it would appear Harris is better but she although half Indian does not identify with India at all. She prefers to call herself black. In her professional life she dated a black man and got a head start. That is not the key to India-US relations. The real issue is retaining some if not all Biden advisors and officials in Harris administration. That will kill any chance of improvements and dumping of unnecessary issues which have been forced into India-US relations. Moreover as a person, just to show off that she is not pro India, she may take anti-India stand in mutual affairs. That is the real danger.

On the other hand, Trump has proven to be friend of India. His latest statement that he likes Hindu and he likes Hindu Indian playing a vital role in American economy is reassuring. He probably will give boost to India-US relations.

All India want from new administration in US is closing the Ukraine war and halting HAMAS rise in Middle East. That will boost India standing. In economic terms, Trump is rough on China. He wants to end excessive business association with China. He wants, India as an alternative. That would be music to India’s ears.

I believe Trump will do a lot better for India than Harris, who may claim to be half Indian.

Today, the 4.5 million high end Indian community in India is more emotional about Harris candidacy. They are contributing liberally to her campaign. She is so afraid of alienating her white voters in US that she is doing her best to look the other way when a question comes to improving relations with India.

I suggest that like Jewish community in US the large and influential Indian community in US should begin exerting pressure on US politics and force them to mend their ways towards India. Truthfully, India is a friend. Right now they ignore the Indian community.

Well the US residents of Indian origin; think before you vote.

 

[Ultraman]

I have said it before and saying it again;

Is it really necessary to use cuss words and racist dogwhistles created/appropriated by crackers and MAGAtards? You do know rednecks use these phrases, right?

saar plz dont say saar , saar its racist saar .

 

[Ultraman]

They are arranging courtesy meets to present the image of 'new Kashmir' (directly facilitated by the GoI). Similar meetings were arranged between the visiting Vietnamese PM and several political leaders;


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4N_g9Iol9Y

They should be more worried about shit like this;

Ahead of J&K polls, US diplomats visit Srinagar, meet Omar Abdullah & other political leaders

Visit part of 'diplomatic outreach' to meet all parties and get a chance to assess situation ahead of polls in the former state, it is learnt.

theprint.in

Apart from Abdullah, the American diplomats spoke with former Srinagar mayor Junaid Azim Mattu. Mattu has met the diplomats multiple times before, including last August. They had discussed “Srinagar’s transformation, prospects of tourism growth and opportunities for investment”, according to a post by Mattu on X.

looks like ur rite , latest software update patched all bugs

 

[crazywithmath]

saar plz dont say saar , saar its racist saar .

View: https://twitter.com/real_lord_miles/status/1826010137783349561

I find it hilarious that we have edgy members who are willing to use phrases created/appropriated by crackers but then again, there are people here who use the p-word here so.......

@mods Move this interaction to a relevant thread if needed.

 

[Miss Firing]

US wapo asset Is crying



View: https://x.com/gerryshih/status/1828738886245171437?t=B7pf12pz5AirP1Te4qkDAA&s=19

This guy is the media go to guy for Lunderican disinformation, has been in the forefront of the nijjar/Pannun saga as well. Does 0 "journalism", just passes on what has been handed down to him.

Check his X page profile -



Yes, that's Magsgaygay awardee in the profile photo.

This Gerry Shit is based in New Delhi.

Checkout his X timeline as well.

Supporting autocrats & interference - That's your specialty

 

[crazywithmath]

View attachment 7900

This guy is the media go to guy for Lunderican disinformation, has been in the forefront of the nijjar/Pannun saga as well. Does 0 "journalism", just passes on what has been handed down to him.

Check his X page profile -

View attachment 7903

Yes, that's Magsgaygay awardee in the profile photo.

This Gerry Shit is based in New Delhi.

Checkout his X timeline as well.

Chinku is biting more than he can chew; a number of goras have been sent home for too much activism and he is not even a gora.

 

[Blademaster]

Ahead of J&K polls, US diplomats visit Srinagar, meet Omar Abdullah & other political leaders

Visit part of 'diplomatic outreach' to meet all parties and get a chance to assess situation ahead of polls in the former state, it is learnt.

theprint.in

Apart from Abdullah, the American diplomats spoke with former Srinagar mayor Junaid Azim Mattu. Mattu has met the diplomats multiple times before, including last August. They had discussed “Srinagar’s transformation, prospects of tourism growth and opportunities for investment”, according to a post by Mattu on X.

looks like ur rite , latest software update patched all bugs

I think it’s time to declare a majority of American diplomats as non persona grata.

 

[Miss Firing]

Look at what is happening in Mexico -

They bought some judicial reforms, US & Canada opposes it publicly. Several statements by the ambassadors of both countries plus .... wait for it... protests.

Now Mexico has "put on hold " relation with US/Canada.

‘Enough is enough’: Mexico President Obrador stops relations with embassies of USA and Canada after their repeated attempts to interfere in internal affairs​

The president's ambitious intentions to restructure the judiciary have been the source of months-long tensions in Mexico, upending the political establishment and putting pressure on diplomatic relations with the US and Canada

Mexico freezes ties with US, Canadian embassies over judicial reforms

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico has severed diplomatic ties with the United States and Canada because of their criticism of his proposal to have judges elected by popular ballot. | OpIndia News

www.opindia.com

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1828607719344873549

This is what US/Canada said -

The three nations in North America have a significant trade connection that reached $1.8 trillion in 2022. “People’s direct election of judges is a major risk to the functioning of Mexico’s democracy,” according to him. He alleged that judicial reforms should guarantee that the court would be strong and not “subject to the corruption of politics.”

Graeme Clark, Canada’s ambassador to Mexico, also voiced alarm about the “disappearance” of several autonomous entities and cautioned investors about the proposed judicial reforms.
**
Lunderican slave & vassal state of Canada goes one step further & threatens about "investments". Pipsqueak who barks on borrowed muscle yelps to all.

Imagine the situation where world over, countries need to take approval from Lunderica & listen to yelping from its pipsqueak vassals as well.

We might see a Georgia redux in Mexico.

Oh - burger media already started



Posting here as it is relevant.

If & when we bring Judicial reforms, it will be same.

If not appropriate, mods can move to suitable thread.

 

[GaudaNaresh]

i'll add one more layer to this... speculative of course.

muricans continue to make their moves to get land access to south china.

in past decade, from this perspective two most discussed in U.S discourse . vietnam and myanmar (not laos, not cambodia, not thailand).

- U.S-vietnam relationship has been on a upswing in the last decade.

- on myanmar.

when aung-sun-suu-kyi was in government, what was murican discourse focussing on?
chan/shan state which borders with china. they were having trouble negotiating with local military groups there.

when it was getting clear that myanmar army is not budging, what did muricans focus on?
rohingya.

what did myanmar army do to counter this threat?
they dethroned aung-sun-suu-kyi.

how does bangladesh come into the picture from this perspective?
land access to myanmar.

what did china do while all this was going on(especially in the last decade)?
they deepened ties with laos (land locked communist country),
built a submarine base between BoB and myanmar,
increased their investments in vietnam.

how did India get impacted in all this?
- Manipur unrest
- Bangladesh unrest

View attachment 7875

Indeed.
For those of who that do not know, the entire area that is south west and west of Kunming, all the way to Irrawady foothills in Myanmar, aka the Shan states is the zone of interest for the US imperialists.

This is because this entire area is like 'super arunachal pradesh'. with hundreds and thousands of individual tribes and its the 'adivasi' zone of the Tibeto-Burman/Sino-Tibetans. The areas under China are not fully Han-ified, the Areas under Myanmar are not at all Bamarified ( though there is Bamar settlement throughout the Shan region).
This is where America wants to play its ' CIA -->Christianity-->Rebellion/insurgency' pipeline game.

The manipur-mizoram-Kuki states is a plan-B project, if Myanmar,aka Bamars are not under the western thumb and forced to open this Burmo-Chinese zone to christian colonisation.

Ofcourse, its America, so it will persue both the projects. India is in a tough spot, because India is the third most powerful entity in this contest, with USA & China being the two dominant ones. Both of whom want to destabilize the north-east and both of whom are more decisive players in Myanmar than India, primarily owing to Indian logistical nightmare in helping Myanmar- Myanmar and India do not have secure land trade lines.
The Indo-Myanmar frontier is hell on earth for motorized convoys and as such, India will simply have to rely on the battleground shifting to Myanmar for US-Chinese geopolitical great game and do some home cleanup if opportunity arises.

 

[Miss Firing]

https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/isi-has-undeniable-complicity-with-terrorists-pentagon-and-state-department-resisted-trumps-order-to-halt-pakistan-aid-ex-us-nsa

ISI Has 'Undeniable Complicity' With Terrorists, Pentagon And State Department Resisted Trump's Order To Halt Pakistan Aid: Ex US NSA​

Not that we did not know this.

 

[Azaad]

View: https://youtu.be/FGaaUXSS6_U?si=4geXuUTxTG0FMq6I

Shiv Shastry has some kind words for Indians who think a Christian state can be established out of parts our NE , BD & Myanmar.

 

[Miss Firing]

US ambassadors are out of control -


View: https://youtu.be/7PA217w169Y




WION/Firstpost & now republic has reports on US interference in our democracy.

 

[Anants]

View: https://youtu.be/FGaaUXSS6_U?si=4geXuUTxTG0FMq6I

Shiv Shastry has some kind words for Indians who think a Christian state can be established out of parts our NE , BD & Myanmar.

For all respect to Dr , he always thinks in form of direct invasion. US thinks in long term, demographic change, disruption. Internationalization then use its economic muscle to brow beat the victim country to accede to more audacious requests one by one. There is a book which was reffered in Adi of def talk how to break country and so on. Gist of it (from talks) and feature of it these things are designed to slowly build up in such a manner even citizen caught unawares or collude unknowingly.

They are colonial powers. They have developed much finer ways to seed division. The govt should be aware.

US as first step will get some foothold. I suspect it will coax BD to start hostilities pretty soon. China and Pak will increase pressure on other end. 5th column shall be activated. They will try to tie up India. If they succeed in changing Govt in India- it shall be big bomanza for regime changers designs.

 

[Azaad]

For all respect to Dr , he always thinks in form of direct invasion. US thinks in long term, demographic change, disruption. Internationalization then use its economic muscle to brow beat the victim country to accede to more audacious requests one by one. There is a book which was reffered in Adi of def talk how to break country and so on. Gist of it (from talks) and feature of it these things are designed to slowly build up in such a manner even citizen caught unawares or collude unknowingly.

Trying those stunts with Myanmar itself would be difficult but to try them against Myanmar , BD & India whether simultaneously or in stages is impossible.

Since we're discussing the Chin / Mizo / Kuki group here , have we even considered there population size. They're 1.1 million in Mizoram , some 5 lakh Kukis in Manipur & 5 lakh Chin in Myanmar with a few thousands in BD.

Being a nuisance is one thing & carving out a separate state is a completely different matter. Besides let's not forget these tribes themselves are maintaining a tenuous peace with their neighbouring tribes like the Nagas for instance.

They are colonial powers. They have developed much finer ways to seed division. The govt should be aware.

US as first step will get some foothold. I suspect it will coax BD to start hostilities pretty soon. China and Pak will increase pressure on other end. 5th column shall be activated. They will try to tie up India. If they succeed in changing Govt in India- it shall be big bomanza for regime changers designs.

US doesn't need to coax what groups in BD along with like-minded brethren in arms out here are willing to do without any persuasion.

The worst case scenario for India as far as the malaun lungis go is one of sustained LIC across the NE particularly in Assam , Tripura & WB in the near future.

This'd happen as the economic outlook in BD starts deteriorating.

As far as the Kukis go we'd have to monkey balance them with the Meiteis for the rest of this decade.

I say this because there are some antagonists who aren't enemies & some who can never be friends. The Kukis fall in the first category , the malaun lungis in the second category.

 

[Anants]

Trying those stunts with Myanmar itself would be difficult but to try them against Myanmar , BD & India whether simultaneously or in stages is impossible.

Since we're discussing the Chin / Mizo / Kuki group here , have we even considered there population size. They're 1.1 million in Mizoram , some 5 lakh Kukis in Manipur & 5 lakh Chin in Myanmar with a few thousands in BD.

Being a nuisance is one thing & carving out a separate state is a completely different matter. Besides let's not forget these tribes themselves are maintaining a tenuous peace with their neighbouring tribes like the Nagas for instance.

[/QUOTE]
Janaab Christianization is like Malsifification. Tribes unite against Kaffir/heathen to wage war. That's what US is trying to do. Manipur, Tripura and Arunachal were anomaly due to different religious demography. This is precisely what they are trying to "correct". About Myanmar look already rebels are controlling most of Myanmar. And we know US special forces were found in Myanmar and even in NE training separatists. These things are to be from 20-30 Yr time frame. Final country may come or nit but it shall ensure India getting bogged down in NE. BD shall jump in to be support base for any antagnostic group as it did pre SHB. With US showing it's intention to completely box India in this region, it's anybody guess all the ruckus shall be synced with US playing behind as well forefront. And with all this do you think k China shall stay quote of it smells blood in NE. I am not even optimistic now that anything will change with Trump coming in. We will have to recruit more and elongate Agniveer tenure eventually. We are going to see our borders getting activated. India needs to plan beyond it's border now. Doval Sabh shall have expand it's offensiv3 defense strategy ev3n more.

US doesn't need to coax what groups in BD along with like-minded brethren in arms out here are willing to do without any persuasion.

The worst case scenario for India as far as the malaun lungis go is one of sustained LIC across the NE particularly in Assam , Tripura & WB in the near future.

This'd happen as the economic outlook in BD starts deteriorating.

As far as the Kukis go we'd have to monkey balance them with the Meiteis for the rest of this decade.

I say this because there are some antagonists who aren't enemies & some who can never be friends. The Kukis fall in the first category , the malaun lungis in the second category.

Agree. But you forget as long as BD dances to Amriki and Chinese tune like Paki, it's going to trudge along with doles.

 

[Azaad]

Janaab Christianization is like Malsifification. Tribes unite against Kaffir/heathen to wage war. That's what US is trying to do.

The Kukis & Nagas are Christian too. Didn't prevent them from getting into bloody clashes in the 90s. Then there's the Kuki Paite clashes also in the 90s albeit lesser in scale as compared to the Kuki Naga clashes & the Paites are considered to be part of the larger Chin Kuki Mizo super tribe.

With these kind of internal divisions of tribes living in such close proximity to each other , the game can be played both ways.

A similar situation exists in Myanmar which is how & why the Tatmadaw there was able to survive & dictate terms there to an extent before the latest coup.

Manipur, Tripura and Arunachal were anomaly due to different religious demography. This is precisely what they are trying to "correct". About Myanmar look already rebels are controlling most of Myanmar.

Controlling land & defeating the Tatmadaw are too different things. Assuming they achieve the latter what then ? How will they build up their State. Who's going to support them ? Countries like India or China or even the Tatmadaw can cultivate a rival tribe & things there will be back to square one.

And we know US special forces were found in Myanmar and even in NE training separatists.

Those were ex military personnel connected to evangelical groups . Do they have ties with the deep state in the US ? Quite likely yes. As of now it's beneath the radar. Myanmar as of now is a playground with multiple players. It's the Great Game Myanmar version 21st century. No single ethnicity or country dominates the situation & likely never will for the long term. Is it going to get messy ? I argue it already is & likely to get even more messy.

Frankly I haven't come across armed ex US military personnel in the NE. In Myanmar , yes but not the NE. In the NE it's the evangelical organisations & their sock puppets here carrying muddying the waters. Had there been any ex US military personnel caught on Indian soil it'd become a huge issue.

These things are to be from 20-30 Yr time frame.

In 20-30 yrs the world we know today won't exist. The biggest event of this century will be the war over Taiwan & it's coming by the end of this decade. Till its final results are known all bets are off .

Final country may come or nit but it shall ensure India getting bogged down in NE. BD shall jump in to be support base for any antagnostic group as it did pre SHB. With US showing it's intention to completely box India in this region, it's anybody guess all the ruckus shall be synced with US playing behind as well forefront.

That was always on the cards even if the US wasn't involved. India was restrained earlier partly because we were focusing on our economy , partly because we were pre occupied with Kashmir & Paxtan & partly coz the BNP & their allies the JeI were thrown out of power in 2007 & SHW took power in 2009.

The India of 2024 is no longer the India of 2001 where the BDR killed 20+ of our BSF jawans in ambush & we kept quiet. If BD tries funny stuff you think you won't see namaloom afraad operating in BD.

It'd be 10 times worse for those who needle India in BD. All said & done whatever the malaun lungi army or aam rockybul thinks they're not Paxtan nor is their intelligence agency the equivalent of the ISI. The only thing which held us back was the AL & SHW. Those restraints no longer exist.

And with all this do you think k China shall stay quote of it smells blood in NE. I am not even optimistic now that anything will change with Trump coming in. We will have to recruit more and elongate Agniveer tenure eventually. We are going to see our borders getting activated. India needs to plan beyond it's border now. Doval Sabh shall have expand it's offensiv3 defense strategy ev3n more.

That was always on the cards once SHW quit or stepped down or was assassinated like her father or dethroned. Our security managers knew of this & must've war gamed all likely scenarios.

Agniveer will come back to bite us in our behinds if we persist with it in the format it is in today. No two opinions there .But Leaderji is high on his own stuff.

Doval is nearing 80. Both he & Modi have done what they could for the motherland . It's time both of them made a graceful exit in the next 2-3 years ensuring a proper succession plan is in place unlike SHW who overstayed her welcome.

Agree. But you forget as long as BD dances to Amriki and Chinese tune like Paki, it's going to trudge along with doles.

India , China & the US have all cultivated their own groups in BD as well as Myanmar where the situation is even more murky what with independent groups there & now Russia becoming a player.

If it's going to be bad for us of which I've little doubt it's going to be worse for those inhabiting those nations.

Everything you've written was known to our foreign policy & security establishment & they must've prepared contingency plans . What we can't afford to do is lose our nerve or have a nervous breakdown. If the situation calls for exchanging bullets we've proxies cultivated there to do our bidding.

 

[Hari Sud]

The current world power and economic structure require a reordering.

Over the past 30 years, the United States has engaged in four unnecessary wars, Gulf Wars 1 and 2, the Afghan War, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where the U.S. is not directly involved but is heavily committed to Ukraine militarily. US did not win these wars or unlikely to win the Ukraine war, hence these wars have significantly eroded America's economic and military strength. None of them yielded decisive results, but they have diminished America's global prestige.

It may be time to reconsider the world's dominant power structure and re-order it, as the U.S. appears increasingly incapable of effectively managing global issues. The Gulf Wars, intended to secure control over a significant portion of the world's oil supply, ultimately failed to achieve their objectives. The Afghan war, while necessary, was mishandled, particularly with the choice to align with Pakistan, which covertly supported both sides, even sheltering Osama bin Laden.

The Ukraine war, which was aimed at weakening Russia, has not worked and could have been handled more effectively through diplomacy.

The unexpected alliance between Russia and China, joined by a heavily armed North Korea, is particularly concerning. Iran, though a partner, pales in comparison to the threat posed by the other three. The US animosity toward Iran, stemming from the 1979 embassy crisis, is outdated and no longer relevant.

This Russia-China-North Korea trio now poses a serious threat to both Europe and the Pacific region. This outcome is an unintended consequence of the Ukraine war. The story that portrays Russia as the sole aggressor ignores the fact that America's push to bring Ukraine into NATO, encroaching on Russia's sphere of influence, caused the conflict. If faced with a similar situation, the U.S. would probably have reacted in exactly the same manner as it did in Cuba in 1962.

The worst may still be ahead. While the war will eventually end, its economic impacts will be long-lasting. The hegemony of the U.S. dollar in global trade is already under threat, a direct result of the comprehensive sanctions imposed on Russia and the warnings issued to its trading partners. As a result, countries are beginning to settle trades in currencies other than the dollar.

This shift is a significant loss for America. If the Ukraine war were to end today, the U.S. might still have a chance to halt this decline. But if the war and sanctions persist, the gradual decline of the dollar is inevitable. Bad news for America.

If things do not go America's way, China may challenge a weakened U.S. supremacy in the Indo-Pacific region. While China may not succeed, the mere possibility is alarming for the smaller nations in the region. Although China may only intimidate and not fight a war as economic losses for them will be enormous, but belligerent China may be forcing the Taiwan issue.

While this analysis has a 50/50 chance of playing out, the mere possibility of America's military and economic decline should prompt some serious reflection among honest-minded people in Washington and elsewhere. There is a good need to reconsider and reorder the world order for long term peace and prosperity. America may be one leg of the new order, others equally powerful may seek equal status.

]

 

[Anants]

The Kukis & Nagas are Christian too. Didn't prevent them from getting into bloody clashes in the 90s. Then there's the Kuki Paite clashes also in the 90s albeit lesser in scale as compared to the Kuki Naga clashes & the Paites are considered to be part of the larger Chin Kuki Mizo super tribe.

With these kind of internal divisions of tribes living in such close proximity to each other , the game can be played both ways.

True but US does not need permamnent alignment, they just want them to align temporarily. See I used Malsi. Tribes can be united for common objective against common objective, once achieved they are back to internal quibbles. This is exactly the arrangement the US wants. Thats why Baptism is being spread.

A similar situation exists in Myanmar which is how & why the Tatmadaw there was able to survive & dictate terms there to an extent before the latest coup.


Controlling land & defeating the Tatmadaw are too different things. Assuming they achieve the latter what then ? How will they build up their State. Who's going to support them ? Countries like India or China or even the Tatmadaw can cultivate a rival tribe & things there will be back to square one.


Those were ex military personnel connected to evangelical groups . Do they have ties with the deep state in the US ? Quite likely yes. As of now it's beneath the radar. Myanmar as of now is a playground with multiple players. It's the Great Game Myanmar version 21st century. No single ethnicity or country dominates the situation & likely never will for the long term. Is it going to get messy ? I argue it already is & likely to get even more messy.

Frankly I haven't come across armed ex US military personnel in the NE. In Myanmar , yes but not the NE. In the NE it's the evangelical organisations & their sock puppets here carrying muddying the waters. Had there been any ex US military personnel caught on Indian soil it'd become a huge issue.

I saw on twitter a post about news that US special force getting caught somewhere in NE INdia sometime back. The news with picture was there, but all vanished. prolly situation then demanded low key affair.. who knows the truth. There are US special forces in Myanmar again seen in twitter. Again you have to remember US does not need to win whole country. Its just needs to create turmoil enough for it to pull levers. And it has succeeded. Kukis are getting support from Baptists churches in US and US gov too. Baptists Church is heavily influenced and guided by CIA. Its known.

Great Games near our borders is never good news. We all know from long and short term history.

In 20-30 yrs the world we know today won't exist. The biggest event of this century will be the war over Taiwan & it's coming by the end of this decade. Till its final results are known all bets are off .


That was always on the cards even if the US wasn't involved. India was restrained earlier partly because we were focusing on our economy , partly because we were pre occupied with Kashmir & Paxtan & partly coz the BNP & their allies the JeI were thrown out of power in 2007 & SHW took power in 2009.

The India of 2024 is no longer the India of 2001 where the BDR killed 20+ of our BSF jawans in ambush & we kept quiet. If BD tries funny stuff you think you won't see namaloom afraad operating in BD.

It'd be 10 times worse for those who needle India in BD. All said & done whatever the malaun lungi army or aam rockybul thinks they're not Paxtan nor is their intelligence agency the equivalent of the ISI. The only thing which held us back was the AL & SHW. Those restraints no longer exist.


That was always on the cards once SHW quit or stepped down or was assassinated like her father or dethroned. Our security managers knew of this & must've war gamed all likely scenarios.

Agniveer will come back to bite us in our behinds if we persist with it in the format it is in today. No two opinions there .But Leaderji is high on his own stuff.

Doval is nearing 80. Both he & Modi have done what they could for the motherland . It's time both of them made a graceful exit in the next 2-3 years ensuring a proper succession plan is in place unlike SHW who overstayed her welcome.


India , China & the US have all cultivated their own groups in BD as well as Myanmar where the situation is even more murky what with independent groups there & now Russia becoming a player.

If it's going to be bad for us of which I've little doubt it's going to be worse for those inhabiting those nations.

Everything you've written was known to our foreign policy & security establishment & they must've prepared contingency plans . What we can't afford to do is lose our nerve or have a nervous breakdown. If the situation calls for exchanging bullets we've proxies cultivated there to do our bidding.

You have to understand discussions and opinions like these are not for govt but for people who are interested in defense to understand and ponder upon. Of course think tanks know - thats how we are debating coz knowledge came from the enlightening discussions. Being aware and losing nerve are two different things. We must distinguish between them. Often what happens is knowing Nations mood, Govt gets the feeling of how much they can gamble and how strongly the can respond feedback. Ultimately Govt needs people to be more aware of the situation around country. This was the exact sentiment a retired Diplomat whop on India TV released his book said - while touch and elaborating same what we are discussing.

 

[hurrians]

"DOD, India Ministry of Defence Enter Into Security of Supply Arrangement "​

Technical Difficulties

Maybe next time GE F404-IN20 won't be delayed.