Indo US Relations

[crazywithmath]

75 US Billion export and 45 US billion Import thats peanuts for USA..

If that were the case then trumpwa would not bother waging a tariff war in the first place.

Either way, exports worth US$ 70-80 billion (a number that is projected to grow manufold in the coming years) is pretty significant from our pov.

And most of these are textiles and petrochemicals one cant put much tariffs on these items GSP was taken away from India in first Trump term.

Except that they can, WTO is dysfunctional - he can do whatever the heck he wants. Sure, there will be reraliatory tariffs too but that still won't recover our 'lost export earnings'.

and service sector export will flourish .. It seems there are around 200 US fed govt institutions which are not critical and service no confidential data most likely these will be outsourced by private cos to India, Philippines.. its a good thing Trump can have few ego wins on goods sector and India can have massive pie in IT service sector

Not too sure about this hopium take either. If trumpwa gets pissed off (he gets pissed off all the time anyway) might as well go all the way.

An FTA (possibly limited in scope) can be a solution to this mess. They tried negotiating one last time around but eventually the Trump admin lost interest and got voted out subsequently. Only time will tell whether a patch-up is possible this time around.

 

[Anants]

Guys Let me tell you. Trump winning is good only if he has not been coopted. But to pour cold water on hopium - let me tell you - starlink and tesla deals shall happen I think.

@ezsasa Remember my my post on realpolitik's by China on getting agreement soon? China read it rightly before hand. China came and attacked when it knew Demos are goin to come in. Trump brought unpredictability with it last time. This time it has Elon Musk tagging along - China is going to bet big on Elon Musk - this is my next prediction. How much Trump gets influenced by Elon is yet to be seen. As we remember Trump does not hesitate to fire big supporters who tried to dominate or pester Trump much. Elon is shrewd guy - his way of winning Trump heart would be by negotiating deals.

 

[Spacemarine]

If that were the case then trumpwa would not bother waging a tariff war in the first place.

Either way, exports worth US$ 70-80 billion (a number that is projected to grow manufold in the coming years) is pretty significant from our pov.



Except that they can, WTO is dysfunctional - he can do whatever the heck he wants. Sure, there will be reraliatory tariffs too but that still won't recover our 'lost export earnings'.


Not too sure about this hopium take either. If trumpwa gets pissed off (he gets pissed off all the time anyway) might as well go all the way.

An FTA (possibly limited in scope) can be a solution to this mess. They tried negotiating one last time around but eventually the Trump admin lost interest and got voted out subsequently. Only time will tell whether a patch-up is possible this time around.

30 billion USD goods deficit is not a big deal from USA, I am not saying that Trump admin is not going to push India to reduce tariffs that is going to happen but again other than US oil and defense equipment India doesnt have much scope in market for any US manufactured goods.

Ultimately its a net win for India, all three letter deep state dogs will be focused domestically, Modi admin will get much needed breathing space inside India, few odd trade deals where India is in disadvantage doesn’t matter to India in comparison to US deep state who was basically trying to fck up India.
What we are going to see in next 4 years is deep state focusing its resources mostly inside and much less stress on Modi.