Israel x Iran Conflict (127 Viewers)

[redpanda]

If Iran returns to its cultural and civilizational roots, it will become a completely different country. Its hostility toward Israel will disappear as if it never existed, and its relationship with India will reach new heights.

Lmao during zoroastrian-hindu period persia actually gave refugee to many Jewish lol. But I don't see iran ever going back to its roots.

 

[GaudaNaresh]

Yes, Iran may or may not remain on the world map, and it may or may not end up becoming an American ally like Pakistan — but that is not India’s concern. No matter how chaotic the world becomes, India must stand firm and strong in defense of its own national interests, the interests of Hindus worldwide, and the preservation of the great Hindu civilization. India must remain committed to truth and justice, as its national motto — drawn from the Rig Veda — declares: “Satyameva Jayate” — Truth alone triumphs.

An American puppet Iran actually helps India to a degree: It totally bridges the gap in deep alliance with israel AND it makes Pakistan less valuable. Whatever American and Paki people say, reality is, america wants to control Pakistan for TWO main reasons, not one:

1. Power check vs India
2. Access to central Asia via Tajikistan and Afghanistan.

Iran lops off reason #2 : Iran grants far easier access to central asia than Pakistan via afg+tjk.

At one point importance of #1 will decline because ultimately usa will want India on its corner for great showdown with the Chinese: IF the Chinese can weather the storm and hang in for another 20 years.

All great powers and the hegemon knows this, hence why usa is getting active in trimming the BRICS periphery and hoping China collapses from internal financial pressures.( they will be wrong about this).

But taking away #2 definitely widens window for us to get back PoK: If usa controls Iran, it is in their interests now to get Pakistan cut off from China and reduce Chinese footprint in Arabian sea. Easiest way to do that, is to let India shit kick Pakistan to get back Gilgit- baltitstan and if we are feeling adventurous, take chitral too and have direct access ourselves to taj+afg.

There are lots of moving parts to this and lots of uncertainty because collapsing ayatollah Raj is still a low probability scenario coz even if they take out the ayatollah, their entire upper middle class and upper class are irgc + Iranian mil so they may very well hunker down and wait for the storm to pass before making another ayatollah.

Ps: gilgit is the key. Gilgit actually grants easy access to chitral via shandur pass, which though deep in karakoram-hindukush, is an easier pass than the artificial connection to chitral via Dir. Gilgit is also shia mostly with lots of carvings of chandragupta in Gupta script.
As soon as Iran mullahcracy dies, these guys will start to get genocided by the pashtun sunnis to their south. This is a virtual guarantee and matter of when, not if. That is india's window to seize gilgit-baltitastan and maybe even chitral.

That window becomes a lot lower in risk threshold, if usa controls Iran and now wants China cut off from pakis. Suddenly you will see murricans argue the law over PoK. But for that day to come, Iran has to play ball with uncle Sam or be its bitch.

That, is one angle.

 

[Varzone]

Arey to much cultural discussion, anything actually happening on the ground? Or slow news day?

 

[Ajatshatru]

An American puppet Iran actually helps India to a degree: It totally bridges the gap in deep alliance with israel AND it makes Pakistan less valuable. Whatever American and Paki people say, reality is, america wants to control Pakistan for TWO main reasons, not one:

1. Power check vs India
2. Access to central Asia via Tajikistan and Afghanistan.

Iran lops off reason #2 : Iran grants far easier access to central asia than Pakistan via afg+tjk.

At one point importance of #1 will decline because ultimately usa will want India on its corner for great showdown with the Chinese: IF the Chinese can weather the storm and hang in for another 20 years.

All great powers and the hegemon knows this, hence why usa is getting active in trimming the BRICS periphery and hoping China collapses from internal financial pressures.( they will be wrong about this).

But taking away #2 definitely widens window for us to get back PoK: If usa controls Iran, it is in their interests now to get Pakistan cut off from China and reduce Chinese footprint in Arabian sea. Easiest way to do that, is to let India shit kick Pakistan to get back Gilgit- baltitstan and if we are feeling adventurous, take chitral too and have direct access ourselves to taj+afg.

There are lots of moving parts to this and lots of uncertainty because collapsing ayatollah Raj is still a low probability scenario coz even if they take out the ayatollah, their entire upper middle class and upper class are irgc + Iranian mil so they may very well hunker down and wait for the storm to pass before making another ayatollah.

Ps: gilgit is the key. Gilgit actually grants easy access to chitral via shandur pass, which though deep in karakoram-hindukush, is an easier pass than the artificial connection to chitral via Dir. Gilgit is also shia mostly with lots of carvings of chandragupta in Gupta script.
As soon as Iran mullahcracy dies, these guys will start to get genocided by the pashtun sunnis to their south. This is a virtual guarantee and matter of when, not if. That is india's window to seize gilgit-baltitastan and maybe even chitral.

That window becomes a lot lower in risk threshold, if usa controls Iran and now wants China cut off from pakis. Suddenly you will see murricans argue the law over PoK. But for that day to come, Iran has to play ball with uncle Sam or be its bitch.

That, is one angle.

Yes, if American sanctions on Iran are lifted, India will have no hesitation in buying oil from Iran, and Iran will gladly buy military hardware from India. Whatever happens inside Iran is irrelevant to India — it won’t affect us. But Pakistan will be in serious trouble. Both Iranians and Israelis despise Pakistan, and part of that contempt comes from how the Muslim world views Pakistani Muslims — as a converted race with no real standing. That underlying stigma fuels the distrust and hatred even more.

 

[Varzone]

All corners of internet is propagating this notion that Iranians are going to rise up and regime change.

So desperate they are for it to install their puppet they launched the erstwhile prince of Persia, here I’m thinking if everyone had vacated the place then who is going to protest?

 

[GaudaNaresh]

All corners of internet is propagating this notion that Iranians are going to rise up and regime change.

So desperate they are for it to install their puppet they launched the erstwhile prince of Persia, here I’m thinking if everyone had vacated the place then who is going to protest?

Unlikely. Not unless Trump goes full Iraq invasion mode but that too is unlikely. Ariel campaign will not finish irgc or mullahcracy but their dehati security lapses and getting their CDS killed 2 seconds after appointment coz last guy also got killed recently, may do it.
One thing Iran is surprisingly vulnerable on it seems is it has total dehati internal security apparently. Maybe they still live in the 80s world of coded parchi crap. I dunno but they are making the taliban seem more organized at keeping their top military brasses secure.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

View: https://x.com/AdameMedia/status/1935390935082307821


View: https://x.com/Sskwrites/status/1935386821124296830


View: https://x.com/krassenstein/status/1935393751146344727

 

[assassin162]

Regarding if Iran falls and gets mainstreamed, it's economy will get revived.

Iran's economic revival and Iran being in same block as Pak will result in Pakistan's economic growth, just by virtue of being neighbours.

Iranian gas and oil pumped and dumped in Pakistan and rubbing effect of a working economy in neighbour will act as boon for Pakistan. Currently, Pakistan is either surrounded by countries which are enemy or with dead economy or a combination of both. Though you can see China also is their neighbour on map, but the real China is thousands of KM's away and its neighbours are Japan, Taiwan and not Pakistan, hell even India is not a proper neighbour of China despite sharing such a big boundary.

 

[Savageking456]

View: https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1935422578535059765?t=mM7wNHkKlDtwlRPb03Docg&s=19

 

[spindrift]

Regarding if Iran falls and gets mainstreamed, it's economy will get revived.

Iran's economic revival and Iran being in same block as Pak will result in Pakistan's economic growth, just by virtue being neighbours.

Iranian gas and oil pumped and dumped in Pakistan and rubbing effect of a working economy in neighbour will act as boon for Pakistan. Currently, Pakistan is either surrounded by countries which are enemy or with dead economy or a combination of both. Though you can see China also is their neighbour, but the real China is thousands of KM's away and its neighbours are Japan, Taiwan and not Pakistan, hell even India is not a proper neighbour of China despite sharing such a big boundary.

My dear good man, you underestimate the retardness of the Paki Punjabi they'll eventually end up screwing it.

 

[Ajatshatru]

Regarding if Iran falls and gets mainstreamed, it's economy will get revived.

Iran's economic revival and Iran being in same block as Pak will result in Pakistan's economic growth, just by virtue being neighbours.

Iranian gas and oil pumped and dumped in Pakistan and rubbing effect of a working economy in neighbour will act as boon for Pakistan. Currently, Pakistan is either surrounded by countries which are enemy or with dead economy or a combination of both. Though you can see China also is their neighbour, but the real China is thousands of KM's away and its neighbours are Japan, Taiwan and not Pakistan, hell even India is not a proper neighbour of China despite sharing such a big boundary.

I don’t think things will go that far. Regime change in Iran isn’t likely—even after this war ends, the current regime will probably emerge more popular than before. Since Pakistan is actively supporting U.S. in attacks on Iran, Tehran will inevitably start viewing Pakistan as a hostile nation. Iran will gradually rebuild its military with Pakistan as a key adversary in mind.

 

[KrishRus]

Regarding if Iran falls and gets mainstreamed, it's economy will get revived.

Iran's economic revival and Iran being in same block as Pak will result in Pakistan's economic growth, just by virtue of being neighbours.

Iranian gas and oil pumped and dumped in Pakistan and rubbing effect of a working economy in neighbour will act as boon for Pakistan. Currently, Pakistan is either surrounded by countries which are enemy or with dead economy or a combination of both. Though you can see China also is their neighbour on map, but the real China is thousands of KM's away and its neighbours are Japan, Taiwan and not Pakistan, hell even India is not a proper neighbour of China despite sharing such a big boundary.

You are assuming that pakistan is a failed basket case of a nation due to circumstances, luck and due to the unfortunate situation of its neighbourhood. As if a slight easing of these issues would result in pakistan suddenly resolving all it internal issues and becoming a high income country with a thriving business and research environment.

When the reality is that they are in this situation because of their own grand strategy and goals and even their bad relationships with their neighbours is due to their own actions primarily. They also have demonstrated that they would hate the foundational cultural memes and values that would even begin to make a somewhat succeful country in terms of their economy.

I mean you are thinking that pakistan is secretly some kind of south Korea-like ust waiting to unleash its untapped potential after receiving favourable aid and diplomatic cover from certain key players.

They are more like USA aligned Afghanistan than south korea and similarly incompetent.

 

[GaudaNaresh]

Regarding if Iran falls and gets mainstreamed, it's economy will get revived.

Iran's economic revival and Iran being in same block as Pak will result in Pakistan's economic growth, just by virtue of being neighbours.

Iranian gas and oil pumped and dumped in Pakistan and rubbing effect of a working economy in neighbour will act as boon for Pakistan. Currently, Pakistan is either surrounded by countries which are enemy or with dead economy or a combination of both. Though you can see China also is their neighbour on map, but the real China is thousands of KM's away and its neighbours are Japan, Taiwan and not Pakistan, hell even India is not a proper neighbour of China despite sharing such a big boundary.

That is the huge counter-argument to mine but that is reality if India doesn't seize the moment in it's window of opportunity over next 15 years.
Shia sunni fracture and genocide will happen faster than pak benefitting from laying infra to profit from rich Iran neighbour for sure.

I think this is what new Delhi thinking is too, to a certain extent and I think this is also why US is so butthurt about OP Sindoor: Pakis were supposed to be the boots on the ground to creep up balochistan a cut off Bandar abbas, forcing regime collapse in Iran and get chabahar as reward. Coz uncle sam under cheeto isn't gonna be boots on ground.
But India responded to a proverbial slap by shoving a cricket bat up pakis grand - crippled PAF, pulverized vast sections of LoC and emboldened BLA to such a degree that Pak army is now mostly tied down in Pakistan.
So full plan chaupat for uncle Sam and no boots on ground in Iran. So at best this is crippling mullah regime and irgc but without boots on ground and controlling Bandar abbas, no regime change possible.

We on the other hand, seized the moment to teach pakis a proper lesson and said effectively to uncle sam that if you wanna be hegemon and topple Iran, do it yourself coz pakis arsehole is taking tendys bat tonight.

Ps: I think uncle sam is supremely annoyed coz it also can't berate India openly: i think the whole context of Pehalgam is Munir got premature ejaculation over the whole operation Iran, figured he can do one more 26/11 and India will know it's place and not risk doing something crazy, knowing this big picture in play but they didn't expect us to game US involvement down to 72-100 hour frame and shitkick the pakis in such short window, either. So all this boils down to pakis being pakis and getting inbred jihadi itch scratched and uncle sam knows this too.

 

[Waanar]

At least some of the Iranians I see or know online have a single line of thinking.
"We hate the regime but we must not let the country fragment".
If Iranians are able to take a bloody nose and still keep their governance intact, even if they blackmail the mullahs out of power, I don't see US or Israel getting what they want yet.

I do question their patriotism and of course, separatism in Khuzestan, Balochistan, Northern Iran full of Azeris or Kurdish populated regions in the west could rear it's ugly head at any moment but at least the ethnic persians are not blinded by disdain for the mullahs and are practicing nuance.

As long as they keep this sentiment alive, US and Israel can't install a puppet by merely dropping bombs and scaring them into submission or rally them to an uprising. Making a Nagasaki out of Tehran is out of the question. I can't imagine how bad that would go for the burgers.

Final option would be putting boots on the ground and I don't exactly see that level of troop mobilization on Iranian borders either so maybe Iran's military capability has faced nigh irreparable damage but the regime will survive regardless.

This all applies unless the regime, in the Iranian people's eyes, pulls a fast one and shoots itself in the foot. Iranian regime should double down on jingoism and try to placate the people in the meanwhile. Another Mahsa Amini will definitely fuck them over.

 

[Sanglamorre]

View: https://x.com/AdameMedia/status/1935390935082307821


View: https://x.com/Sskwrites/status/1935386821124296830


View: https://x.com/krassenstein/status/1935393751146344727

Yeah so did it make re-entry or all gas?

 

[GaudaNaresh]

At least some of the Iranians I see or know online have a single line of thinking.
"We hate the regime but we must not let the country fragment".
If Iranians are able to take a bloody nose and still keep their governance intact, even if they blackmail the mullahs out of power, I don't see US or Israel getting what they want yet.

I do question their patriotism and of course, separatism in Khuzestan, Balochistan, Northern Iran full of Azeris or Kurdish populated regions in the west could rear it's ugly head at any moment but at least the ethnic persians are not blinded by disdain for the mullahs and are practicing nuance.

As long as they keep this sentiment alive, US and Israel can't install a puppet by merely dropping bombs and scaring them into submission or rally them to an uprising. Making a Nagasaki out of Tehran is out of the question. I can't imagine how bad that would go for the burgers.

Final option would be putting boots on the ground and I don't exactly see that level of troop mobilization on Iranian borders either so maybe Iran's military capability has faced nigh irreparable damage but the regime will survive regardless.

This all applies unless the regime, in the Iranian people's eyes, pulls a fast one and shoots itself in the foot. Iranian regime should double down on jingoism and try to placate the people in the meanwhile. Another Mahsa Amini will definitely fuck them over.

Azeri iranis mostly speak irani. Remember azeri is an ethnicity seperate from language originally because Azerbaijan is actually originally athurpatakan in farsi and initially the turki who settled Azerbaijan and call their turki as azeri were initially different from azeri iranis.
So the whole azeri link is overplayed in irani seperatism, the balochi represent a bigger threat to irani integrity but the biggest risk are the irani kurds- though small in number, they are actually the same language as iraqi kurds and share more kindred stuff and that is where murrica has the most in, now that pakis are gimped by us.

 

[assassin162]

India vs Pakistan dehyphenation..... This is how India and Pak dehyphenated.

This is to certain extent Pakistan's own doing but also the success of Indian government and the agencies. This is the real success of our foreign policy, RAW and others involved. [I will pitch US's actions in Pak and its neighbourhood also as Pakistan's own doing].

The pattern of these lines must be preserved at all cost.

This would have led to Pakistan's breaking today or tomorrow. Let's see ab Amrika inhe kab tak bachata hai.....

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Yeah so did it make re-entry or all gas?

Can not find too many details but people are saying it’s a warning for Trump???

 

[assassin162]

You are assuming that pakistan is a failed basket case of a nation due to circumstances, luck and due to the unfortunate situation of its neighbourhood. As if a slight easing of these issues would result in pakistan suddenly resolving all it internal issues and becoming a high income country with a thriving business and research environment.

When the reality is that they are in this situation because of their own grand strategy and goals and even their bad relationships with their neighbours is due to their own actions primarily. They also have demonstrated that they would hate the foundational cultural memes and values that would even begin to make a somewhat succeful country in terms of their economy.

I mean you are thinking that pakistan is secretly some kind of south Korea-like ust waiting to unleash its untapped potential after receiving favourable aid and diplomatic cover from certain key players.

They are more like USA aligned Afghanistan than south korea and similarly incompetent.

No, I am saying that Pakistan is in the worsest of the worst condition economically and still has a functioning army, still sees dreams of Gazwa a Hind.
Dubte hue ko tinke ka sahara bhi hamara game bigaad sakta hai is all I am saying. Our plan of entrapping Pakistan economically and geostrategically has been perfect for last many years.

And here are the Americans, pooping all around.

 

[Azaad]

Russia.
Then us

Turkey is the Pakistan of the Middle East, Erdoggy will give his ass to Uncle Sam if necessary

Ive been seeing practically every other post claim the US will actively target us & accuse Trump of doing so abusing him.

As long as the CCP is in business the US won't do anything to us. Wasn't that the whole point of that long rant Ashley Tellis penned ?! It's the frustration of the US manifesting itself thru his pen .

If they could do something about it , they wouldn't be penning such articles. They'd be calling for war like they're doing to Iran's mullahs.

Trump is transactional. Keep massaging his ego to the best of your abilities & throw a bone every now & then in his direction , he'd be content. Try and maximize whatever it is you expect from the US. Our guys have dealt with him before ,they know their job. You'd have to trust them , men of little faith.

As far as Turkey goes , as long as the current world order continues they will respect it . The day it is upturned their Ottoman Caliphate Redux is back in business. That's some time away . There's a lot of things which will happen before that which needs tackling by Israel & India.