Making India an Upper Middle Income Country in Short Term, a High Income Society in Long Term

[Indx TechStyle]

HDI report for 2025 is out.

https://hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents/global-report-document/hdr2025reporten.pdf

India ranks 130 with a HDI of 0.685 against Pakistan ranking 168th with 0.544. China had it 0.797 this year. Hence, in terms of socio economic indicators, gap between India and Pakistan is more than that between China and India.

India will reach "highly developed" catgeory before Pakistan reaches "medium". In 2026 or 2027 report most likely. Remember, the 2025 report shows data for 2023. So, India is already broken into league of early upper middle income countries.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

2025 rankings and human development indicators

HDI report for 2025 is out.

https://hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents/global-report-document/hdr2025reporten.pdf

India ranks 130 with a HDI of 0.685 against Pakistan ranking 168th with 0.544. China had it 0.797 this year. Hence, in terms of socio economic indicators, gap between India and Pakistan is more than that between China and India.

India will reach "highly developed" catgeory before Pakistan reaches "medium". In 2026 or 2027 report most likely. Remember, the 2025 report shows data for 2023. So, India is already broken into league of early upper middle income countries.

PS, UNDP seems to have removed literacy as indiactor. Otherwise, gap between India and Pakistan would have been greater than 0.160.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

2025 HD value, rankings with development indictaors.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Future HDI of selected countries based on growth and using that as projections from current reports.
(Do not confuse since above HDI report was for 2023 published in 2025. HDI 2024 is yet to be published).

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

HDI report for 2025 is out.

https://hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents/global-report-document/hdr2025reporten.pdf

India ranks 130 with a HDI of 0.685 against Pakistan ranking 168th with 0.544. China had it 0.797 this year. Hence, in terms of socio economic indicators, gap between India and Pakistan is more than that between China and India.

India will reach "highly developed" catgeory before Pakistan reaches "medium". In 2026 or 2027 report most likely. Remember, the 2025 report shows data for 2023. So, India is already broken into league of early upper middle income countries.

0.600 to 0.649 is more like "Lower middle developed", "0.650-0.700" is truly middle developed. 0.700-0.750, is upper end of middle developed countries, this where you will find SEA countries and latam countries, 0.750-0.850 are mostly upper end of latam countries like Uruguay, Argentina and lower end of Europe. 0.850+ is truly highly developed, this where countries like Arab nations, former warsaw pact states like poland, czechia, slovakia,Hungary etc come. 0.900+ is very highly developed, mostly western europe, canada, saudi, qatar, micro-nations/city-states, japan etc.

We can reach about 0.720-0750 by end of 2020s if nothing goes wrong. as population stagnets and older less educated generations dies out and PCI increases , we should be able to get past .800 by 2035

 

[sameer]

2025 HD value, rankings with development indictaors.
View attachment 34367View attachment 34364View attachment 34365
View attachment 34366

How is mean years of schooling calculated? The value is 6.9 years for India which seems to be worse than some sub saharan African countries like Congo(8.3) and Lesotho(7.7), Equatorial Guniea etc. War torn Iraq(6.8) is in the same category.

I don't understand, Is the situation really that bad(honestly I don't feel so) or is this poor data sourcing by UNDP?

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

Future HDI of selected countries based on growth and using that as projections from current reports.
(Do not confuse since above HDI report was for 2023 published in 2025. HDI 2024 is yet to be published).
View attachment 34368

I think our HDI would be higher than 0.777, mean of age of schooling should improve by then, plus life expectancy would be much better, I think 0.800+ is possible.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

How is mean years of schooling calculated? The value is 6.9 years for India which seems to be worse than some sub saharan African countries like Congo(8.3) and Lesotho(7.7), Equatorial Guniea etc. War torn Iraq(6.8) is in the same category.

I don't understand, Is the situation really that bad(honestly I don't feel so) or is this poor data sourcing by UNDP?

UNDP data is based upon data submitted by governments.

Accuracy depends upon timeline and metholdogy of recording of data by Gov of India (and by other countries too including those in Africa).
We know the state of education & schools of India versus that in developed world vs that lower middle income countries of Africa. I can rest it here.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Summing up most socio economic parameters so far in tale below. Parts to pay attention upon are in yellow.


Considering the exceptionally high gap between Nominal and PPP GDP, India actually has surpassed lower middle income countries and already has entered the league of early upper middle income countries alongside Southeast Asia, Sri Lanaka and mostly similar if not better than those in Latin America. It ranks better than other most of desiganted lower middle countries in most of development indices almost everywhere.

 

[sauntheninja]

Vietnam is expected to hit upper middle income status by some time in the next 1-2 years and Philippines next year probably

PH climb to higher income status seen in 2026

The Philippines might finally transition to an upper-middle income country (MIC) in 2026 if it can sustain economic growth of at least 6 percent, the state’s top socioeconomic planner

business.inquirer.net

so it does look like we are hovering right at the edge and should make it by 2030

Vietnam’s booming economy nears upper-middle-income status

Vietnam’s economy grew by 7.09% in 2024, surpassing projections and setting the stage for the country to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2025.

vietnamnet.vn

Vietnam’s booming economy nears upper-middle-income status

Vietnam’s economy grew by 7.09% in 2024, surpassing projections and setting the stage for the country to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2025.

vietnamnet.vn

According to the World Bank’s classification for 2023-2024, a country is considered upper-middle income if its Gross National Income (GNI) per capita is between $4,516 and $14,005.

Vietnam’s GNI per capita in 2023 was $4,180, up from $4,020 in 2022 and $3,590 in 2021. Assuming a 7% growth rate in 2024, GNI per capita could rise by $292 to $4,472, falling just short of the upper-middle-income threshold.

However, with sustained economic growth, Vietnam is expected to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2025.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

View attachment 35220
Vietnam is expected to hit upper middle income status by some time in the next 1-2 years and Philippines next year probably

PH climb to higher income status seen in 2026

The Philippines might finally transition to an upper-middle income country (MIC) in 2026 if it can sustain economic growth of at least 6 percent, the state’s top socioeconomic planner

business.inquirer.net

so it does look like we are hovering right at the edge and should make it by 2030

Vietnam’s booming economy nears upper-middle-income status

Vietnam’s economy grew by 7.09% in 2024, surpassing projections and setting the stage for the country to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2025.

vietnamnet.vn

Vietnam’s booming economy nears upper-middle-income status

Vietnam’s economy grew by 7.09% in 2024, surpassing projections and setting the stage for the country to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2025.

vietnamnet.vn

According to the World Bank’s classification for 2023-2024, a country is considered upper-middle income if its Gross National Income (GNI) per capita is between $4,516 and $14,005.

Vietnam’s GNI per capita in 2023 was $4,180, up from $4,020 in 2022 and $3,590 in 2021. Assuming a 7% growth rate in 2024, GNI per capita could rise by $292 to $4,472, falling just short of the upper-middle-income threshold.

However, with sustained economic growth, Vietnam is expected to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2025.

2030 is our nominal projection.

As told before, our threshold in PPP is already is equivalent to upper middle income states. We are behind WB definition due to low cost of living & hence large gap in nominal and PPP.