Making India an Upper Middle Income Country in Short Term, a High Income Society in Long Term

[Indx TechStyle]

HDI report for 2025 is out.

https://hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents/global-report-document/hdr2025reporten.pdf

India ranks 130 with a HDI of 0.685 against Pakistan ranking 168th with 0.544. China had it 0.797 this year. Hence, in terms of socio economic indicators, gap between India and Pakistan is more than that between China and India.

India will reach "highly developed" catgeory before Pakistan reaches "medium". In 2026 or 2027 report most likely. Remember, the 2025 report shows data for 2023. So, India is already broken into league of early upper middle income countries.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

2025 rankings and human development indicators

HDI report for 2025 is out.

https://hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents/global-report-document/hdr2025reporten.pdf

India ranks 130 with a HDI of 0.685 against Pakistan ranking 168th with 0.544. China had it 0.797 this year. Hence, in terms of socio economic indicators, gap between India and Pakistan is more than that between China and India.

India will reach "highly developed" catgeory before Pakistan reaches "medium". In 2026 or 2027 report most likely. Remember, the 2025 report shows data for 2023. So, India is already broken into league of early upper middle income countries.

PS, UNDP seems to have removed literacy as indiactor. Otherwise, gap between India and Pakistan would have been greater than 0.160.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

2025 HD value, rankings with development indictaors.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Future HDI of selected countries based on growth and using that as projections from current reports.
(Do not confuse since above HDI report was for 2023 published in 2025. HDI 2024 is yet to be published).

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

HDI report for 2025 is out.

https://hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents/global-report-document/hdr2025reporten.pdf

India ranks 130 with a HDI of 0.685 against Pakistan ranking 168th with 0.544. China had it 0.797 this year. Hence, in terms of socio economic indicators, gap between India and Pakistan is more than that between China and India.

India will reach "highly developed" catgeory before Pakistan reaches "medium". In 2026 or 2027 report most likely. Remember, the 2025 report shows data for 2023. So, India is already broken into league of early upper middle income countries.

0.600 to 0.649 is more like "Lower middle developed", "0.650-0.700" is truly middle developed. 0.700-0.750, is upper end of middle developed countries, this where you will find SEA countries and latam countries, 0.750-0.850 are mostly upper end of latam countries like Uruguay, Argentina and lower end of Europe. 0.850+ is truly highly developed, this where countries like Arab nations, former warsaw pact states like poland, czechia, slovakia,Hungary etc come. 0.900+ is very highly developed, mostly western europe, canada, saudi, qatar, micro-nations/city-states, japan etc.

We can reach about 0.720-0750 by end of 2020s if nothing goes wrong. as population stagnets and older less educated generations dies out and PCI increases , we should be able to get past .800 by 2035

 

[sameer]

2025 HD value, rankings with development indictaors.
View attachment 34367View attachment 34364View attachment 34365
View attachment 34366

How is mean years of schooling calculated? The value is 6.9 years for India which seems to be worse than some sub saharan African countries like Congo(8.3) and Lesotho(7.7), Equatorial Guniea etc. War torn Iraq(6.8) is in the same category.

I don't understand, Is the situation really that bad(honestly I don't feel so) or is this poor data sourcing by UNDP?

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

Future HDI of selected countries based on growth and using that as projections from current reports.
(Do not confuse since above HDI report was for 2023 published in 2025. HDI 2024 is yet to be published).
View attachment 34368

I think our HDI would be higher than 0.777, mean of age of schooling should improve by then, plus life expectancy would be much better, I think 0.800+ is possible.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

How is mean years of schooling calculated? The value is 6.9 years for India which seems to be worse than some sub saharan African countries like Congo(8.3) and Lesotho(7.7), Equatorial Guniea etc. War torn Iraq(6.8) is in the same category.

I don't understand, Is the situation really that bad(honestly I don't feel so) or is this poor data sourcing by UNDP?

UNDP data is based upon data submitted by governments.

Accuracy depends upon timeline and metholdogy of recording of data by Gov of India (and by other countries too including those in Africa).
We know the state of education & schools of India versus that in developed world vs that lower middle income countries of Africa. I can rest it here.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Summing up most socio economic parameters so far in tale below. Parts to pay attention upon are in yellow.


Considering the exceptionally high gap between Nominal and PPP GDP, India actually has surpassed lower middle income countries and already has entered the league of early upper middle income countries alongside Southeast Asia, Sri Lanaka and mostly similar if not better than those in Latin America. It ranks better than other most of desiganted lower middle countries in most of development indices almost everywhere.

 

[sauntheninja]

Vietnam is expected to hit upper middle income status by some time in the next 1-2 years and Philippines next year probably

PH climb to higher income status seen in 2026

The Philippines might finally transition to an upper-middle income country (MIC) in 2026 if it can sustain economic growth of at least 6 percent, the state’s top socioeconomic planner

business.inquirer.net

so it does look like we are hovering right at the edge and should make it by 2030

Vietnam’s booming economy nears upper-middle-income status

Vietnam’s economy grew by 7.09% in 2024, surpassing projections and setting the stage for the country to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2025.

vietnamnet.vn

Vietnam’s booming economy nears upper-middle-income status

Vietnam’s economy grew by 7.09% in 2024, surpassing projections and setting the stage for the country to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2025.

vietnamnet.vn

According to the World Bank’s classification for 2023-2024, a country is considered upper-middle income if its Gross National Income (GNI) per capita is between $4,516 and $14,005.

Vietnam’s GNI per capita in 2023 was $4,180, up from $4,020 in 2022 and $3,590 in 2021. Assuming a 7% growth rate in 2024, GNI per capita could rise by $292 to $4,472, falling just short of the upper-middle-income threshold.

However, with sustained economic growth, Vietnam is expected to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2025.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

View attachment 35220
Vietnam is expected to hit upper middle income status by some time in the next 1-2 years and Philippines next year probably

PH climb to higher income status seen in 2026

The Philippines might finally transition to an upper-middle income country (MIC) in 2026 if it can sustain economic growth of at least 6 percent, the state’s top socioeconomic planner

business.inquirer.net

so it does look like we are hovering right at the edge and should make it by 2030

Vietnam’s booming economy nears upper-middle-income status

Vietnam’s economy grew by 7.09% in 2024, surpassing projections and setting the stage for the country to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2025.

vietnamnet.vn

Vietnam’s booming economy nears upper-middle-income status

Vietnam’s economy grew by 7.09% in 2024, surpassing projections and setting the stage for the country to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2025.

vietnamnet.vn

According to the World Bank’s classification for 2023-2024, a country is considered upper-middle income if its Gross National Income (GNI) per capita is between $4,516 and $14,005.

Vietnam’s GNI per capita in 2023 was $4,180, up from $4,020 in 2022 and $3,590 in 2021. Assuming a 7% growth rate in 2024, GNI per capita could rise by $292 to $4,472, falling just short of the upper-middle-income threshold.

However, with sustained economic growth, Vietnam is expected to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2025.

2030 is our nominal projection.

As told before, our threshold in PPP is already is equivalent to upper middle income states. We are behind WB definition due to low cost of living & hence large gap in nominal and PPP.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Summing up most socio economic parameters so far in tale below. Parts to pay attention upon are in yellow.
View attachment 35209

Considering the exceptionally high gap between Nominal and PPP GDP, India actually has surpassed lower middle income countries and already has entered the league of early upper middle income countries alongside Southeast Asia, Sri Lanaka and mostly similar if not better than those in Latin America. It ranks better than other most of desiganted lower middle countries in most of development indices almost everywhere.

Somebody make similar data of neighbouring countries as well if have time.

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

Somebody make similar data of neighbouring countries as well if have time.

We haven't done our rebasing of GDP from 2011-12 as base year to 2022-23 as base year, I think that should happe shortly, maybe they are waiting for census to get done ?

 

[FalconSlayers]

How is mean years of schooling calculated? The value is 6.9 years for India which seems to be worse than some sub saharan African countries like Congo(8.3) and Lesotho(7.7), Equatorial Guniea etc. War torn Iraq(6.8) is in the same category.

I don't understand, Is the situation really that bad(honestly I don't feel so) or is this poor data sourcing by UNDP?

Why people even take HDI seriously? It is badly flawed. I even logically argued against it in the past.

Here's it.

Even these figures are bullshit for various countries, I explained why on SSC.
View attachment 17070View attachment 17071
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View attachment 17076


More than half the kids in Pak aren't even going to school.

28m children out of schools in Pakistan: Report

ISLAMABAD- The count of children in Pakistan who are not enrolled in school has surged to 28 million, surpassing the highest percentage of out-of-school

www.nation.com.pk

While just 1.2 million kids in India are out of school (which still is a big figure, but still far from being as bad as rest)

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/over-1-2-million-students-out-of-school-most-of-them-at-elementary-level-govt-101675858595780.html

But as per that crooked NGO aka United Nations, countries with a third or half its kids are not even going to school are having similar schooling stats than India where around 1.2 mn kids are OoSC. Also countries with 5-10 times lower consumption of goods and services, tax collections and annual savings per capita somehow have similar levels of "purchasing power" as Indians. If that wasn't enough UN also claims the average income in terms of purchasing of pakis, kanglus, nigerians etc is just around 1/3rd of an economic juggernaut like China.
View attachment 17077


Nigeria and kanglus in fact have higher MYoS compared to India and pretty close to china, again as per UN

Basic google search can give away levels of production and consumption of cement, steel, electricity, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and tax revenues, deposits and savings along with annual investments of a country.

There literally is no substance and credibility to the garbage these guys publish and fail to pass even the most basic of smell tests. These are the same guys who've put "Lahore HDI at 0.877" at their website quoting some paki survey calling it comparable to the western countries.

Inclusive Growth in Pakistan

The Pakistan National Human Development Report 2017 points towards large disparities in human development across districts and cities of Pakistan. The Human Development Index (HDI) of 0.877 for Lahore is on average equal to that for France and Spain. It is higher than the average HDI for Saudi...

www.undp.org

They also publish bogus poverty numbers with India comparable to abovementioned, female labour participation worse or comparable to abovementioned, access to sanitation worse than abovementioned and food security worse or comparable to... abovementioned, again.


Now you understand where do these failed state residents get their confidence to troll India for being a "poor 3rd world banana republic as good as them" from? It is the dogshit data like this which is published unabated by United Nations / World Bank and even IMF and distributed worldwide by digital and print media through citations.

So much progress yet the entire country the size of Delhi is rich enough to buy just 600 cars a year lol
No thanks, I don't care about some fancy remittances funded real estate.

Then why does the entire country have just 50 KWh of per capita electricity consumption after so much progress? It is equivalent to an individual running just a 20 Watt bulb for 7 hours a day annually .

Manila is impressive, but since you're such an odd perfectionist, I hate to tell you they are routinely mocked by western media for being "poor, dirty slummy" like they do for us. They have one good thing that is non-dusty climate.


Okay bhai thik hai, ab rona band kar.

HDI is NOT a bad index, but the data used is extremely suspect. Countries with very large %age of kids being out of school having better stats than India where this %age is almost negligible. Same countries having per capita consumption of essential proxies like electricity, cement, steel, automobiles and per capita tax collections, savings and GFCF multiple times lower than India have same or higher HDI as per UNDP.

It is more due to stereotypes than actual realities.