Folks, a few things to be wary of.
Ukraine's strikes on Russia now can militarily warrant the use of nuclear warheads. At least on paper, strategically speaking, a nuclear exchange is a very logical retaliation. And tbh, from what I can see, that is exactly what the West seems to want. NATO is an incredibly expeditionary wolf hiding in sheep's clothing. This will go either way from here on:
1st possibility: the US and the West manage to force Putin into a ceasefire on terms that unilaterally favour Ukraine, dealing a massive blow to Putin, almost guaranteeing a change in regime through internal unrest in Russia.
2nd possibility: Putin escalates to small-scale nuclear payloads on Ukrainian strategic locations. NATO and the US get to test their BMD systems and strategic nukes and then essentially drag Russia through the mud, Gutenberg style, leaving Russia no longer a superpower, potentially broken up even more, or run by a puppet "democracy". This might sound crazy, but do not for a second think that it's too improbable. Trump is out on a mission to MAGA, AND he proclaims himself to be the saviour of peace. For him, or for that matter, anyone in NATO, a few Ukrainians killed and a few generations ruined from nuclear strikes, is a very small price to pay in a country that has a history of nuclear fallout. Moreover, Ukrainians or other central asians are essentially a propaganda tool for the West, like the Islamist jihadis. In other words, Ukrainians ko shaheed bana ke West khud ghazi banne ke mood mein hai. After they're done with them, they'll be treated like low-life commie-reject brothel-bouncers by the rest of Europe.
You'll notice that both of the above possibilities are extremes. I believe that after all this time, the War is now stuck in a stalemate where any kind of escalation or de-escalation that isn't either of the above will eventually lead to one or the other. Because Zelensky is a rabid dog, and Putin will go down fighting, but won't give in to terms that unilaterally favour Ukraine. The only actual solution to this conflict is to take out either of them.
Now, my purpose in writing all this is to explore India's options in this whole scenario.
From my perspective, the US is digging its own grave economically, and Russia is doing the same militarily. The last 5 years and now Trump have confirmed a few things for me. The primary of which is, this multipolarity in world affairs today is just a transitional period.
I'll refrain from predicting what the eventual new world order will look like, but a few things to keep in mind.
The US economy is on the brink of possibly the worst crash. I'm shitting my pants thinking about it but it's a fact. If the Trump admin doesn't fix the tax brackets and reduce expenditure but instead increases the national debt threshold again, then combine that with the tariff jumla, the US is looking at what can be called de-industrialisation. Now that I think of it, perfect reason for the US to let Russia do something crazy so that the market takes a temporary hit while US investors make a crap ton of money off of the defence industrial complex and then later fix the markets using the spoils of War.
Russia's military campaign into Ukraine is essentially choked now. Putin miscalculated the initial blitzkrieg, and now he's finding it hard to sustain not only the military but also his economy. He isn't making any money from his military exports cause he can't sell much at the moment. His primary trading partners, the EU, are buying maybe 20% of what they used to. He's having to sell resources to China for pennies on the dollar, and Xi is trying to outrank Russia as the ultimate Red state. His internal politics is being held together simply by hopes and dreams. So his only options are to give in or see this War to its logical end. Either way, Russia will not come out of this stronger. Rather, they'll be set back at least a decade.
This is a very tense geopolitical climate, but for India, this can be an amazing opportunity. A lot is being done right at the moment, with the independent trading deals with companies. This essentially provides an all-weather raincoat to India's foreign economic interests. With this, India should start to campaign aggressively now more than ever to get into the UNSC permanent members table, OR set up a parallel where India holds disproportionate power.
Additionally, India needs to seriously look elsewhere for military tech. Depending on Russia is suicidal right now because Russia is NOT in a state to effectively help with the supply, manufacturing of any military equipment. AND, India has prior experience with Russian "Full tech transfer" through the Su-30 program. Our best bet right now for fighter engine tech would be France. If need be just buy the rights to engine for whatever obscene amount Safran wants and then mass produce that shit in India. Also, join the 6th gen fighter program of the EU with the sole intention of gaining expertise in the design phase, then back out during production like France did with the Eurofighter Typhoon. Roll out Tejas Mk 1As asap and then fast-track the AMCA. If the AMCA induction into the IAF can be preponed by 2-3 years, then India can have a near 6th Gen Mk 2 ready by 2040.
In terms of trade and economy, I think we're doing exactly what is needed. We're too big a market that can afford anything the world has to sell. And, we are the largest suppliers of many essential goods and resources. This is a kind of permanent influence rather than an artificial one created by the likes of the US and China on world trade.
Finally, India needs to recognize that our primary and ONLY long-term competitors are China on every single front. We need to engage with them accordingly.
