For what it's worth , GoI still hasn't implicated Paxtan nor have the terrorists claimed responsibility like in Pulwama . I know it's early days yet & not even 24 hrs from the incident but before we jump the gun , let's hear what the GoI has to say .
To that extent the GoI's hands are tied . No amount of intensifying covert support to the TTP or the Balochi Sarmachars or any amount of namaloom afraad strikes are going to cut it as retribution ought to be seen & be bloodier than what we've experienced.
Hence we'd see action. My only apprehension is we don't get sucked into a longer exchange than is necessary for a few reasons -
- Our primary enemy is still China & we're no where near building up our military power to take them on ~ 2030.
- the more we're distracted with Paxtan the more our modernisation / upgradation attempts get delayed.
- the state of the world economy being what it is , the more time we expend on extracting retribution the bigger the cost to the economy.
- The same guys yelling revenge here won't like it so much when costs of living goes up phenomenonaly or a short sharp war results in taxation rates being escalated.
- finally ,the same situation exists today vis a vis the IAF as we faced during Pulwama 2019 except for induction of 2 squadrons of Rafale. Not that the IA is good shape.
- we can't target civilians nor will we target Fauji Foundation nor should we as I'd explain. Paxtan is sinking ,no two opinions about it .
- Our getting into a short sharp war will no doubt accelerate that sinking but will do more damage to our economy & armed forces especially if we're due to go up against China later this decade.
- The analogy is the same as China getting into a war with India which spins beyond control thus affecting if not ruining their prospects of taking Taiwan which is their true objective & top most priority.
- there's a time for war & there's a time for peace , there's also a time for something in between. Today's not the time for war with Paxtan not till we've settled with China one way or another.
- Had the Chinese factor not hung over our heads like a sword , I'd have advocated we go hammer & tongs at Fauji Foundation including targeting their top brass.
- hence let Paxtan sink & take Fauji Foundation along with it . We shouldn't do anything to interrupt this flow. Take whatever action we think is necessary without getting sucked into a wider war & then back off.
- sometimes discretion is the better part of valour . Let's recognise the importance of this aphorism , take proportionate or rather disproportionately proportional response & be done with it. We've bigger fish to fry while we can watch the boat called Paxtan sinking.
