Pahalgam Islamic Terror Attack

[Prasad]

regarding IWT suspension, it will only be partially effective, due to the lack to infra on our side to completely stop the flow.

but, and this a a very BUT, we can do a lot of damage to Paki land during summer when the flow is less to the extent where we can bring them to their knees.

their 'gaand poch ne ke liye paani nahee' will come true in summer.

 

[GaudaNaresh]

9-15 years in Indian terms basically means never. Too many elections too many variables and the fact that the treaty is not scrapped but only suspended. Typical eyewash.


View: https://x.com/alpha_defense/status/1915106961583935979?s=46

Few figures about this River diversion stuff:
Followig are the flow rates of the 3 rivers we give to Pakistan (in cubic meters per second):

1. Indus : 2469
2. Chenab: 977
3. Jhelum: 1026**

So of total 4472 cubic m/s we can effectively only cut off 977 of it, ie, roughly 20% of it.

Indus is virtually undivert-able for Pakistan's use, Jhelum too is. Only Chenab we can, in theory divert.

** Of Jhelum's flow of 1026 cu m/s , the vast majority actually comes from Kishen ganga, that rises and joins it in PoK. Jhelum's actual flow out of Indian held land, at Baramulla, is only 230 cubic m/s so close to only 1/5th of its waters lies in our area of control.

So in theory, we actually straight up cannot touch 800 cubic m/s water flow rate of Jhelum, as it lies completely inside Pakistan's control.
In other words, of the 4472 cubic m/s of Paki rivers in IWT, we actually dont control nearly another 20% of it at all.

In reality, we dont need to do much more than divert Chenab and make Ravi completely dry. That alone is sufficient water stress to keel the country over

 

[Prasad]

Few figures about this River diversion stuff:
Followig are the flow rates of the 3 rivers we give to Pakistan (in cubic meters per second):

1. Indus : 2469
2. Chenab: 977
3. Jhelum: 1026**

So of total 4472 cubic m/s we can effectively only cut off 977 of it, ie, roughly 20% of it.

Indus is virtually undivert-able for Pakistan's use, Jhelum too is. Only Chenab we can, in theory divert.

** Of Jhelum's flow of 1026 cu m/s , the vast majority actually comes from Kishen ganga, that rises and joins it in PoK. Jhelum's actual flow out of Indian held land, at Baramulla, is only 230 cubic m/s so close to only 1/5th of its waters lies in our area of control.

So in theory, we actually straight up cannot touch 800 cubic m/s water flow rate of Jhelum, as it lies completely inside Pakistan's control.
In other words, of the 4472 cubic m/s of Paki rivers in IWT, we actually dont control nearly another 20% of it at all.

In reality, we dont need to do much more than divert Chenab and make Ravi completely dry. That alone is sufficient water stress to keel the country over

Like you pointed, devil is always in the details.

the arm chair experts always want immediate 100% successful action, which is impossible.

IWT suspension is already a major escalation & will give BJP govt incentives to build more infra to divert water.
One of the other impacts of this is public being very touchy & it will impact all decision makers and that includes judiciary. I suspect SC milords will back down in the short term of certain matters.

coming to war, it won't happen.
The best bet is salami slicing where we occupy tracts of lands of Pakis similar to what China used to do. the most reasonable one would be hitting some of their terror camps and calling it a day.

 

[Knowitall]

Few figures about this River diversion stuff:
Followig are the flow rates of the 3 rivers we give to Pakistan (in cubic meters per second):

1. Indus : 2469
2. Chenab: 977
3. Jhelum: 1026**

So of total 4472 cubic m/s we can effectively only cut off 977 of it, ie, roughly 20% of it.

Indus is virtually undivert-able for Pakistan's use, Jhelum too is. Only Chenab we can, in theory divert.

** Of Jhelum's flow of 1026 cu m/s , the vast majority actually comes from Kishen ganga, that rises and joins it in PoK. Jhelum's actual flow out of Indian held land, at Baramulla, is only 230 cubic m/s so close to only 1/5th of its waters lies in our area of control.

So in theory, we actually straight up cannot touch 800 cubic m/s water flow rate of Jhelum, as it lies completely inside Pakistan's control.
In other words, of the 4472 cubic m/s of Paki rivers in IWT, we actually dont control nearly another 20% of it at all.

In reality, we dont need to do much more than divert Chenab and make Ravi completely dry. That alone is sufficient water stress to keel the country over

Chenab and ravi are already pretty much dry and were always under Indian jurisdiction. Congress just let them flow in excess. Will it hurt pakistan it already does but nothing that serious.

The real focus and the lifeline lies on the western rivers which can barely be touched and any attempts are going to take decades to frutify.

Those 3 rivers are the actual lifeline of pakistan and all this nonsense by the govt is just eyewash.

 

[Psacha123]

View: https://x.com/ibnsufyan313/status/1914997841476415488?s=46

 

[sameer]

Not interested in word play.

It's undeniable that we are one of the few nations where a country 1/6th our size dares to pick on again and again over decades.

Show me another big country that'll tolerate a small country the way India tolerates Pakistan.

Our previous generations were risk averse paper pushers with little to no masculinity. Things are changing slowly.

We have to remember that after Pakistan got its nuclear weapons(post kargil era), the game completely changed.

Most nuclear nations won't indulge in launching attacks against fellow nuclear countries because of the fear of escalation. Even Russia picks useless minnows like Ukraine/Georgia, they won't dare do their "special military operations" against a nuke armed nation. The same for SK-NK. Despite having the absolute backing of a superpower, SK won't go up the escalation ladder no matter how many provocations and baits Kim launches.

That being said, I agree with you that we've chickened out with Pakistan in the pre nuke era(esp from 72-98). Letting Pakistan get nukes was the greatest strategic mistake we ever did.

Just look at the levels Israelis go to, to deny Iran the bomb. Nearly, all of the leading Iran nuke scientists have been assassinated in the past decade. Granted they probably had Yankee intelligence helping them out, but they still had the conviction and the clarity of thought that "hey, Iran must never ever ever ever get the bomb and we'll do whatever it takes to deny them".

I wonder if our leaders ever have such foresight. We have always been reactive, not proactive.

 

[silentassassin265]

Look guys, it's clear voting these people isn't enough. You'll have to defend yourself.

Get firearms and don't believe govt, even if it's a nationalist one. Don't mix with mullas, and take every chance to oppress one.


Nothing else to say.

Getting firearm is almost impossible unless you are a gangster or related to a politician or police.
If you apply for gun licence it will be rejected every time.
I have knives collection but it will be useless against gun, even cobra pepper spray will work better.

 

[maximus777]

Vance is in India. Fast-track a couple of Reaper drones and a few Hellfire missiles out of the total order that was placed in 2024. Take out the Pakistani military leadership in a Zawahiri-style missile strike.

Arent the Yemeni towelheads shooting them down by the dozen? Need brute force Oreshnik like meteor shower, enough of this surgical precision! Fauj foundation, Pindi cabal and their families need to feel the same level of loss and terror. But then supreme leaderji

 

[GaudaNaresh]

Chenab and ravi are already pretty much dry and were always under Indian jurisdiction. Congress just let them flow in excess. Will it hurt pakistan it already does but nothing that serious.

The real focus and the lifeline lies on the western rivers which can barely be touched and any attempts are going to take decades to frutify.

Those 3 rivers are the actual lifeline of pakistan and all this nonsense by the govt is just eyewash.

India CAN actually divert the Indus now that i look at it. But India never will. Because at end of day, India STILL sees Pakistan as bharat-bhoomi and diverting Indus is possible ONLY if we want to make bharat lose Sindhu forever.

Because...the ONLY legitimate way to divert the Indus...is to divert it into Pangong Tso. And then get China to cut canals over relatively flat tibet to cross into central asia via network of lakes in the Rutog region and cross Kunlun Shan.
In theory its possible but the ONLY possibility of ever diverting Indus. Because to cut through multiple 5km tall himalayan range of 80 km thickness is like video game logic, not reality.

And even then, again, Pakistan is hurt,but cripped for Indus flow, because Indus at before merger with Shyok only averages about 400 cubic m/s and Shyok itself makes up over 1000 cubic m/s flow of Indus total as it exits Gilgit-baltitsan.

So that means diverting Shyok into Pangong Tso as well -which can be done coz Shyok DOES flow very close to Pangong Tso as well.

But you do this, this is like gifting China a 1500 cubic m/s river and taking it away from Bhaart-bhumi.
1500 cubic m/s is the same rough average flow of Krishna river in Southern India.
And China CANNOT do this without our help either - as Indus is divertable ONLY via Pangong Tso and that ONLY happens inside Ladakh.

This MIGHT actually make China ditch Pakistan and let India do whatever it wants to Pakistan, since this baiscally makes entire Xinjiang a hariyali paradise for chinese to further colonize.

But question is, will India even consider such a plan to screw Pakistan ? Because once you do this, its also pretty much done- you wont be able to re-fill the cut channels and barriers to pangong Tso so easily as concrete weathers about 50x faster under water erosion than rock.

 

[Prasad]

We have to remember that after Pakistan got its nuclear weapons(post kargil era), the game completely changed.

Most nuclear nations won't indulge in launching attacks against fellow nuclear countries because of the fear of escalation. Even Russia picks useless minnows like Ukraine/Georgia, they won't dare do their "special military operations" against a nuke armed nation. The same for SK-NK. Despite having the absolute backing of a superpower, SK won't go up the escalation ladder no matter how many provocations and baits Kim launches.

That being said, I agree with you that we've chickened out with Pakistan in the pre nuke era(esp from 72-98). Letting Pakistan get nukes was the greatest strategic mistake we ever did.

Just look at the levels Israelis go to, to deny Iran the bomb. Nearly, all of the leading Iran nuke scientists have been assassinated in the past decade. Granted they probably had Yankee intelligence helping them out, but they still had the conviction and the clarity of thought that "hey, Iran must never ever ever ever get the bomb and we'll do whatever it takes to deny them".

I wonder if our leaders ever have such foresight. We have always been reactive, not proactive.

Forget chickening out, many govts in that period were complicit with pakis.
in public it would be anger against Pakis but in private they were having kababs with pakis and screwing India.

We made a guy who was basically a paki b@stard as VP.

 

[bablu666]

Forget chickening out, many govts in that period were complicit with pakis.
in public it would be anger against Pakis but in private they were having kababs with pakis and screwing India.

We made a guy who was basically a paki b@stard as VP.

dont forget the biggest traitor - Morarji Desai

 

[Ajatshatru]

We have to remember that after Pakistan got its nuclear weapons(post kargil era), the game completely changed.

Most nuclear nations won't indulge in launching attacks against fellow nuclear countries because of the fear of escalation. Even Russia picks useless minnows like Ukraine/Georgia, they won't dare do their "special military operations" against a nuke armed nation. The same for SK-NK. Despite having the absolute backing of a superpower, SK won't go up the escalation ladder no matter how many provocations and baits Kim launches.

That being said, I agree with you that we've chickened out with Pakistan in the pre nuke era(esp from 72-98). Letting Pakistan get nukes was the greatest strategic mistake we ever did.

Just look at the levels Israelis go to, to deny Iran the bomb. Nearly, all of the leading Iran nuke scientists have been assassinated in the past decade. Granted they probably had Yankee intelligence helping them out, but they still had the conviction and the clarity of thought that "hey, Iran must never ever ever ever get the bomb and we'll do whatever it takes to deny them".

I wonder if our leaders ever have such foresight. We have always been reactive, not proactive.

Nuclear deterrence can be neutralized; it’s the lack of political will that prevents India from taking strong action. The assumption that Pakistan’s nuclear installations cannot be targeted by the Indian military is dangerously misguided.

 

[MiketheInfantryman]

Nuclear deterrence can be neutralized; it’s the lack of political will that prevents India from taking strong action. The assumption that Pakistan’s nuclear installations cannot be targeted by the Indian military is dangerously misguided.

I think you are grossly overestimating our own capabilities

Sure, we could maybe disable their nukes, but it's a gamble. Because they are fanatics, and have absolutely nothing to lose, they'd happily try to make the whole place an irradiated wasteland. Unless you want millions of our own people to die, you wouldn't try to disable the other guy's nukes. Why do you think Israel is constantly denying the Iranians their nuke? Because once they make it, you can't really stop it. We lost our window to deny porkis their nukes a long time ago. Political will was needed back then, now no amount can do much right now.

It's better to overesitmate the enemy and prepare accordingly rather than underestimating and paying the price

 

[Srinivas]

My honest 2 cents on the whole situation.

Taking into consideration
1. Pakistan's internal turmoil, economic instability, and political unrest (read Imran Khan) have created a state of mass resentment among the Pakistani population, especially the younger generations, towards the Pakistani military. Asim Munir understands that the control over the masses is slipping and is at a tipping point in places like Balochistan.
2. Asim Munir's speech last week, the mention of the two-nation theory, the call to arms to the youth against "Hindu" India, when related to the specifics of the attack, makes it obvious that the speech and the attack were coordinated and not cause and effect.
3. The attack itself, the lack of indiscriminate or emotional firing, methodical target acquisition, confirmation, and execution, and the surgical infiltration and exfiltration of the terrorists, reeks of ex-SSG involvement. This was more of an attack planned and executed on the Pakistani deep state's initiative rather than the TRF's initiative.
4. The immediate scrambling of air assets by PAF and the deployment of airborne early warning assets after the attack, even before there was any official condemnation of Pakistan's involvement in the attack from the Indian government, hints that the Pakistani military is preparing for something impending. This wasn't quite the case right after Uri or Pathankot.

It seems like Asim Munir is trying to repeat history i.e. fight a war with India, he knows he'll lose, to divert the average Pakistani's attention from the crises in Pakistan and also hope for large sums of foreign aid to fund his war efforts and pump some money back into his almost bankrupt economy. Bonus, destabilize Kashmir again and re-launch the local terror outfits in Kashmir.

Now, having said this, it seems to be a bit of a trap for India. I don't think it matters so much to Asim Munir if India acts upon blocking the water of the Indus. It's mostly about the optics. And India, I'd say, has chosen to call Pakistan's hand with the very official press briefing. So as of now, everything is going as per what I perceive to be Asim Munir's game plan. I'm pretty sure the Indian government, however ignorant about defence innovation and modernization it may be, is conscious enough to be preparing for a full-scale military engagement with Pakistan, but we need to be careful. This seems to be a well-planned campaign if it is what I fear it is.

Again, this is a personal analysis of the situation. Anyone is free to agree or disagree.

India can hurt Pakistani establishment and bring them to knees, Munir’s game plan of diverting attention from his own failures doesn’t work.

If India attacks most of the Pathans and Balouch rejoice which will make him weak.

Munir will lose his job.

 

[Ajatshatru]

I think you are grossly overestimating our own capabilities

Sure, we could maybe disable their nukes, but it's a gamble. Because they are fanatics, and have absolutely nothing to lose, they'd happily try to make the whole place an irradiated wasteland. Unless you want millions of our own people to die, you wouldn't try to disable the other guy's nukes. Why do you think Israel is constantly denying the Iranians their nuke? Because once they make it, you can't really stop it. We lost our window to deny porkis their nukes a long time ago. Political will was needed back then, now no amount can do much right now.

It's better to overesitmate the enemy and prepare accordingly rather than underestimating and paying the price

Even if Iran possesses nuclear-tipped missiles, Israel would not be deterred. They would strike all of Iran’s nuclear sites and eliminate the missiles at their launch sites before they could take off. Israel has prepared itself for nuclear war—through the Iron Dome, fortified bunkers, educating civilians on nuclear survival, and acquiring the military capability to intercept and neutralize nuclear weapons before launch.

 

[samsaptaka]

You want an attack ASAP, right now etc etc but if Abhinandan scenario repeats, you lot won't have an answer.

you can't generalise like that for all of us , not speak on our behalf. So what if a downed pilot is captured ? Shit happens in war and we are ready for that AND the body bags and destruction of cities and even nuke holocaust . If eviscerating of porkroaches requires me to be so mental, then so be it, sanatana civilization is bigger than me & my family.

THAT is called guts

Nope, let me contradict you. Guts is if your mahamaanav had not bowed to pressure, followed thru with karachi attack and threatened more attacks if Abhinandan was not released, or got him released and then proceeded with the karachi attack anyway and earned the title of Mahamanav rightfully instead of the derogatory way its used now.

More than the military strikes on Paki land, it will be the other steps by Modi that will them a lot more

Typical war avoiding peacenik attitude which will never stop further terror attacks on hindus. We all know how that goes....

 

[brat4]

a couple of observations:

• remember the train hostage incident in Pukistan? what was the aftermath of that incident? not a pipsqueak from the local population, not a semblance of a retaliation from either their army or their govt.
• something similar (pahalgam/uri/pathankot) India came with - something - send all pakis back, close border, "abeyance" of IWT.
• identifying pak as the perpetrator is the first step, now no going back on that
• maunmohan and congress era, the immediate parroting of "terrorism has no religion" and "pakistan is also a victim of terrorism" has stopped (That was the most eunuch thing to say after getting slapped by terror)

now I really would like to see some difference in how we go about with the pukis.

 

[Ajatshatru]

India should modernize its military to the point where it becomes impossible for Pakistan to even prepare for a nuclear launch, let alone carry one out.
Even unconfirmed intelligence suggesting Pakistan is preparing for a nuclear launch should lead the Indian military to send Pakistan back to the Stone Age, while confirmed intelligence should prompt India to launch preemptive nuclear strikes on Pakistan.

 

[Prasad]

you can't generalise like that for all of us , not speak on our behalf. So what if a downed pilot is captured ? Shit happens in war and we are ready for that AND the body bags and destruction of cities and even nuke holocaust . If eviscerating of porkroaches requires me to be so mental, then so be it, sanatana civilization is bigger than me & my family.


Nope, let me contradict you. Guts is if your mahamaanav had not bowed to pressure, followed thru with karachi attack and threatened more attacks if Abhinandan was not released, or got him released and then proceeded with the karachi attack anyway and earned the title of Mahamanav rightfully instead of the derogatory way its used now.


Typical war avoiding peacenik attitude which will never stop further terror attacks on hindus. We all know how that goes....

Would love if what you said was the reality about how we should not have cared about Abhinandan and attacked pakistan.

Unfortunately for people like you most Indians would not be with that plan. If instead of being released Abhinandan would have been killed, most probably Modi would have been politically weakened.

That's the moot point though.

Your whole logic is centered around India as a whole is ready to loose few hundreds of thousands of young men, bare minimum.
If what you suggested happens, this could go up to millions.

You really think Indians are ready to make such a sacrifice?
We will be but not terror attacks, it has to be something much bigger, something like 26/11. That was a good case for going to war against another nuclear armed nation.

Bottom line, don't ask for a war if you are NOT ready for thousands of your men coming back in body bags.
At the end of the day, that simple fact determines our response.

 

[sameer]

Nuclear deterrence can be neutralized; it’s the lack of political will that prevents India from taking strong action. The assumption that Pakistan’s nuclear installations cannot be targeted by the Indian military is dangerously misguided.

If it were that easy, why aren't other countries doing it then. Trust me, It's very easy to write all this on anonymous phorum with a few hundred members where our decisions and rants have no real life consequences.

Nuclear deterrence is a very real thing and that's why so many countries go to such extreme extent to deny the bomb to their opponent in the first place. Pakistan is just like North Korea at this point, it has very little to lose.