Chinese Economy Watch

Frankly I wonder why does one need a security guy monitoring 3 taxis when there's no one in the taxi except for a passenger ? What exactly is the job of the security guy ?


Yes & Gadkari's right , we don't need autonomous driving or as in your case remote driving masquerading as autonomous driving as we don't have TFR approaching 1 as it is in your case.

We need as many jobs as possible which is the reason we don't see any merit in autonomous driving / remotely driven vehicles.

Moreover in the west the transportation companies pay a small fortune for drivers especially on long distance routes. I don't think the same is true for China. You're doing whatever it is you're doing only blindly copying the west as you've been doing ever since the PRC was established.

We'd consider autonomous driving / remote driving when our TFR starts plummeting which is a long way ahead.

Moreover this thread is about China . What's an Indian minister's comments on it got to do with the Chinese economy ? You feel the urge to quote Gadkari , do it in the thread on the Indian Economy.

Don't blame us next time if we start uploading data bringing up comparisons between India & China later.

Off topic, but reminds me of this

So, Amazon’s ‘AI-powered’ cashier-free shops use a lot of … humans. Here’s why that shouldn’t surprise you

Amazon's AI-based 'just walk out' checkout tech was powered by 1,000 Indian workers manually

Instead of the Artificial Intelligence, Amazon was secretly using something even better: the real, natural, human intelligence. 🤣
 
TAIYUAN, CHINA –
Senior citizens sway to old-time tunes at a former kindergarten in northern China, as educators turn their sights away from children in the face of a rapidly aging population and a baby bust.


Hundreds of millions of Chinese are set to enter old age in the coming decades while the country's chronically low birth rate leaves ever fewer people to replace them, official statistics show.

 
Hong Kong is expecting a sharp fall in the number of primary-school-aged children following a mass exodus of middle-class families fleeing a crackdown on political dissent.

The city's Bureau of Education estimates, based on August 2023 population data from the Census and Statistics Department, that the number of 6-year-olds will fall by 31% from 49,600 in 2024 to 34,100 in 2030.

Many who have left the city did so citing political repression under a draconian security law, along with what they regard as the brainwashing of children in the form of "patriotic" and "national security" classes that are now mandatory from kindergarten to university, as the government encourages people to inform on each other.

Birth rates in Hong Kong began declining in 2014, but plummeted sharply in the wake of a 2019 pro-democracy protest movement and subsequent political crackdown, reaching their lowest level since 1960.

While the population showed a slight uptick following the scrapping of COVID-19 travel curbs, birth rates in the city haven't caught up, with the number of newborns falling by 38% between 2019 and 2022, according to government data.


 
Chinese censors deleted an article on Wednesday that reportedly leaked full-year population figures for 2023, revealing a plummeting birth rate despite ongoing efforts by the ruling party to encourage people to have families.

While official figures won't be confirmed until Jan. 17, the Mother and Infant Daily news service said 7.88 million babies were born across China 2023, 1.68 million fewer than in 2022.

Given that 11 million people died this year, China's population has therefore fallen by 3.12 million, the population of a medium-sized Chinese city, the report said, citing the City Data account on Baidu's Tieba forum site.

The City Data post had been deleted by Wednesday evening local time, suggesting that the topic is a highly sensitive one for the ruling Chinese Communist Party, which is keen to sing the praises of the economy in a bid to boost people's confidence in the future.

However, the reported figures were in line with earlier estimates, including one by Peking University School of Medicine scholar Qiao Jie, who told a forum in August that the number of newborns has plummeted by 40% over the past five years.

"The number of births in 2023 is expected to range from 7-8 million," Qiao was quoted as saying by the China Business News.


Original Article
 
Medical experts and Chinese media are reporting on the closure of obstetric departments across this country of 1.4 billion people, which has suffered a population decline for two consecutive years – China’s first experience of a diminishing birthrate in several decades.

The closures of delivery wards has been likened to an “obstetric winter” in China, while public concern around the shutdowns has prompted authorities to remove search topics related to the issue from Chinese social media.

But the silencing of public concern has not stopped Chinese hospitals from closing their delivery wards.

 
A prominent Chinese obstetrician has taken to social media to lament the closure of obstetrics departments in Chinese hospitals, prompting social media comments that the ruling Chinese Communist Party needs to make life better for young people if it wants to reverse falling birth rates.

"Save obstetrics!" wrote Duan Tao, obstetrician at the Shanghai No. 1 Maternal and Infant Health Hospital, in the title of his post to the social media platform Weibo at the end of last month, following a meeting of obstetrics department heads in Shanghai's Pudong New Area.

"One man who has been a director of obstetrics for more than 20 years wept as he told the meeting that his department had recently been shut down," Duan wrote, pointing to a fall in births from 17.86 million in 2016 to just 9.02 million in 2023.

"The government asked hospitals to add more beds after childbirth was liberalized [in May 2021]," Duan wrote. "The number of births has fallen ... and the number of obstetric outpatient clinics and obstetric beds is falling every day."

Communist Party leader Xi Jinping last October called on women to focus on raising families, and the National People's Congress this month started looking at ways to boost flagging birth rates and kick-start the shrinking population, including flexible working policies, coverage for fertility treatment and extended maternity leave.

But young women in today's China are increasingly choosing not to marry or have kids, citing huge inequalities and patriarchal attitudes that still run through family life, not to mention the sheer economic cost of raising a family.

According to Duan's post, more than a dozen obstetrics departments closed in 2022, with further closures reported in Zhejiang, Guangzhou and Guangxi last year. So far this year, three more facilities have closed.

 
A prominent Chinese obstetrician has taken to social media to lament the closure of obstetrics departments in Chinese hospitals, prompting social media comments that the ruling Chinese Communist Party needs to make life better for young people if it wants to reverse falling birth rates.

"Save obstetrics!" wrote Duan Tao, obstetrician at the Shanghai No. 1 Maternal and Infant Health Hospital, in the title of his post to the social media platform Weibo at the end of last month, following a meeting of obstetrics department heads in Shanghai's Pudong New Area.

"One man who has been a director of obstetrics for more than 20 years wept as he told the meeting that his department had recently been shut down," Duan wrote, pointing to a fall in births from 17.86 million in 2016 to just 9.02 million in 2023.

"The government asked hospitals to add more beds after childbirth was liberalized [in May 2021]," Duan wrote. "The number of births has fallen ... and the number of obstetric outpatient clinics and obstetric beds is falling every day."

Communist Party leader Xi Jinping last October called on women to focus on raising families, and the National People's Congress this month started looking at ways to boost flagging birth rates and kick-start the shrinking population, including flexible working policies, coverage for fertility treatment and extended maternity leave.

But young women in today's China are increasingly choosing not to marry or have kids, citing huge inequalities and patriarchal attitudes that still run through family life, not to mention the sheer economic cost of raising a family.

According to Duan's post, more than a dozen obstetrics departments closed in 2022, with further closures reported in Zhejiang, Guangzhou and Guangxi last year. So far this year, three more facilities have closed.

Who's betting Great Helmsman 2.0 won't ban education for women beyond secondary school examination certification & jobs thus forcing them to get into marriages & bearing children very soon ?!

After all this is the same CCP which went about forcing women to abort once upon a time when they exceeded the 1 child per family quota.

And we all know this is one of the lesser evils CCP is capable of . For far greater evils we must refer to the glorious 75 year old rule of the CCP particularly that of great helmsman 1.0 over Zhongguo. @rockdog
 
Will China be in a position to launch attacks in 2027 given this population decline?
They won’t be able to. Each child will become very precious to each family. It will mean the end of a lot of lineages if China went to war.

A war is not an option for CCp. They should instead focus on Economy and stabilizing demographics. If 80% of their focus was on this, there is a chance China might recover from this disaster

CCP should provide incentives to fathers who have children as dependencies. They should give tax free relief for the entire duration of the pre-K years and also provide subsidized day care. I think then parents will be more prolific with Children.

Right now no one wants kids because individualism has killed the family support network and materialism has made keeping up very difficult and made having kids a low priority.

Daycare is like $2000/mo in the US, I wonder what it is in China.
 
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Who's betting Great Helmsman 2.0 won't ban education for women beyond secondary school examination certification & jobs thus forcing them to get into marriages & bearing children very soon ?!

After all this is the same CCP which went about forcing women to abort once upon a time when they exceeded the 1 child per family quota.

And we all know this is one of the lesser evils CCP is capable of . For far greater evils we must refer to the glorious 75 year old rule of the CCP particularly that of great helmsman 1.0 over Zhongguo. @rockdog
The best outcome for India is CCP falls, and China becomes more open / free. 75 years of subjugation to propaganda is going to create a huge demand for spiritual learning. India should capitalize on this moment to reestablish Dharma in China. Tibet should also be recreated as a buffer state.
 
Congratulations !

Your period of enjoying trade surpluses will last till around 2027. How come ? - you'd ask . It's like this - your exports are killing businesses left right & centre in developed , developing & poorer nations. It's unsustainable in the long run ruining societies & nations.

Hence tariffs & more tariffs against all Chinese goods whether mfgd in China or in ASEAN nations will be the end goal. What impact that'd have on China remains to be seen .

2027? The situation is complicated.

Nature resource rich nations, developed like Australia New Zealand will keep on good trading ties for earning dollars.

Developing nations Congo, Peru welcome their resources for better cost effective solutions than Western from China, like cheaper 5G networks, new EVs not 2nd VW cars.

Highly industrial nation like Russia needs China for wake up its whole supply chain.

Even some EU nations welcome China, wish getting investment like Hungary and Greece.

Oil nations in mid east welcome trade with China.

India is most complicated, one side it dislike to make trade deficit with China, one side if India want to upgrade its economy it has to import massively.
 
Congratulations !

It's when import of oil reaches ~ < 20% of present capacities , China'd prepare to launch its invasion of Taiwan which I expect to happen around 2030 .

Your period of enjoying trade surpluses will last till around 2027. How come ? - you'd ask . It's like this - your exports are killing businesses left right & centre in developed , developing & poorer nations. It's unsustainable in the long run ruining societies & nations.

Hence tariffs & more tariffs against all Chinese goods whether mfgd in China or in ASEAN nations will be the end goal. What impact that'd have on China remains to be seen .

The situation is complicated.

Resource rich nations, developed like Australia New Zealand will keep on good trading ties for earning dollars.

Developing nations Congo, Peru welcome their resources for better cost effective solutions than Western from China, like cheaper 5G networks, new EVs not 2nd VW cars.

Highly industrial nation like Russia needs China for wake up its whole supply chain.

Even some EU nations welcome China, wish getting investment like Hungary and Greece.

Oil nations in mid east welcome trade with China.

India is most complicated, one side it dislikes to make huge trade deficit with China, one side if India wants to upgrade its economy it has to import massively.
 
Sorry,

I agree to delete all non-Chinese content from this thread

I feel lucky that EV, new engery, Internet, AI industries are making huge employment.

This is my EV lab, we hired 20 more young people this year, testing new EVs for brand owners, without local EV booming, those jobs were supposed to be in Germany or Japan.

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