Chinese Economy Watch

In 2023, China's trade surplus is equal to 1% of world GDP, around 1T USD.

View attachment 10369
I sincerely hope in the next two years it goes up to 3 trillion USD. For India to rise , China must fall & for China to fall it's trade surpluses must rise & rise fast. Gwailou will take care of the rest .
 
That 1 trillion trade surplus requires 2 trillion in subsidies financed by debt

Dude, i respect you as an educated IT professional, plz be accurate on data.

According to budget.size, there is no space for such heavy subsidy.

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SHENZHEN, China — Chinese vendor Yin Xinwei sometimes makes close to $1,400 a day selling low-priced pill boxes, barbecue spits and other items to U.S. online consumers.

The future of that business, and the bargain prices enjoyed by his American customers, is now in question amid a looming U.S. regulatory change aimed largely at two Chinese e-commerce platforms he sells on, Temu and Shein.


The change, which comes amid rising trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies, is likely to have major consequences for already burdened Chinese sellers such as Yin who rely heavily on overseas markets.

“The business model could disappear,” he said in a recent interview at his office in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen.

Both platforms have experienced explosive growth in recent years thanks to a customs exemption that allows packages whose contents are worth less than $800 to enter the United States almost tax-free and with minimal scrutiny.

Each year hundreds of millions of packages, mostly from Chinese platforms, are sent directly to American consumers eager to take advantage of rock-bottom prices on clothing, electronics and other products.

But this month, the White House said it planned to narrow the loophole, known as the “de minimis” exclusion, to prevent abuse and strengthen protections for American consumers and workers. That could mean painful times ahead for the Chinese sellers that supply the platforms — and higher prices for American consumers.

Chinese state media has criticized the proposal as protectionist and say it will hurt American consumers.

“Without the exemption, the costs will be higher,” Yin said. “Products might have to be priced for Temu closer to Amazon.”

Use of the de minimis exemption has skyrocketed since the threshold was increased to $800 in 2015, said David Townsend, a partner at the U.S.-based law firm Dorsey & Whitney and an expert in international trade.

“The exemption was designed to avoid imposition of certain tariffs on low-value imports of retail goods, and to reduce the administrative burdens on retailers and consumers of retail products imported into the United States,” he said in an email.
That loophole has been a boon for Shein, a retailer known for fast fashion that was founded in China in 2012 but is now based in Singapore, and Temu, which was founded in Boston in 2022 but is owned by Chinese global commerce group PDD Holdings. The success of the two Chinese platforms has put pressure on American companies such as Amazon, which has considered launching a new discount section on its site in order to better compete with them.

According to the White House, more than a billion packages entered the U.S. under the de minimis provision last year, compared with 140 million 10 years ago. U.S. Customs and Border Protection data show that from 2018 to 2021, between about 60% and 80% of de minimis shipments came from China and Hong Kong.

The increased use of the exemption has become yet another flashpoint in relations between the U.S. and China, the world’s two biggest economies.

“In particular, the de minimis exemption allows lawful avoidance of certain U.S. tariffs and duties, including the China-specific tariffs imposed under Section 301 by President Trump (and maintained by President Biden),” Townsend said.

It also presents challenges for U.S. customs officials trying to prevent the import of counterfeit merchandise, goods that fail to meet health and safety requirements, goods made with forced labor or illicit synthetic drugs such as fentanyl.

The White House proposal could be disruptive for Chinese suppliers that already face sagging demand at home as the Chinese economy struggles to recover from three years of pandemic isolation. Companies such as Temu and Shein serve as a lifeline for many Chinese factories in the face of what U.S. officials say are severe overcapacity issues in some Chinese industries.

Yin used to sell to Chinese consumers but has given up his domestic business to focus entirely on the overseas market. He estimated that about 40% of his Temu orders went to the U.S., 40% to Europe and the other 20% elsewhere.

He said Temu had opened the door to overseas e-commerce for him and a “huge number” of other Chinese sellers by taking care of everything once their items arrive at a company warehouse in China.

“In the old days, if someone wanted to sell to other countries, the barrier to entry was high,” Yin said. “They must understand English, have knowledge about logistics, know how to connect with overseas storage companies.”

The sheer number of sellers on the Chinese platforms has created fierce competition, Yin said, “which has resulted in the lowest prices.”


Fellow seller Jacky Lu, whose party decorations and other goods are sold on Amazon, Temu and Shein, said that while the calculation varies for each item, “very generally speaking, the price on Temu might be 70% of that on Amazon.”

With Amazon, “I also need to pay for logistics, advertising, operations and storage,” he said, which affects how he sets his prices.

Both Temu and Shein say their growth doesn’t depend on the U.S. exclusion.

“We are reviewing the new rule proposals and remain committed to delivering value to consumers,” a Temu spokesperson said in an email.


Shein said in a statement that its success was “anchored in our unique on-demand business model,” adding that it looked forward to working with all stakeholders on trade reforms “to create a level, transparent playing field — where the rules are applied evenly and equally.”

With the de minimis exemption at risk, Yin said, the platforms appear to be “gradually retreating from handling the logistics” and pushing Chinese sellers to do more of that on their own.

Yin said he had already started shipping his products in bulk to U.S. warehouses and distributing them from there.

“Right now, it’s the only way the platforms can make it,” he said.

Eunice Yoon reported from Shenzhen, China, and Jennifer Jett reported from Hong Kong.



 
I sincerely hope in the next two years it goes up to 3 trillion USD. For India to rise , China must fall & for China to fall it's trade surpluses must rise & rise fast. Gwailou will take care of the rest .
In my personal opinion China and India can grow and will grow, nobody can stop that.

However from my point of view, to grow as export powers both need to import too, I am not against commerce with China, but the problem is exports if are not balanced by imports means one nation is growing and other is not, since the one consuming is outsourcing jobs and services to the exporting country.

No nation can grow upon exports, the Chinese model is based upon tech transfers (copying) subsidies (government pays for failures), exports (foreigners pay for subsidies if possible), this model will have opposition by other industrial powers and emerging markets for sure.


As long as the communist lead party thinks that is the only way to grow, it will provoke tariffs, and since trade is becoming preferential via customs unions and free trade agreements, the possibility China can enters those markets are minimal, at the end they will need to balances their trade surpluses.
 
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Dude, i respect you as an educated IT professional, plz be accurate on data.

According to budget.size, there is no space for such heavy subsidy.

View attachment 10413
What is MSS doing to you ? You're here first thing in the morning & last thing in the night ! What's more you still get paid 50 cents per post ?! You've literally made this post at 0615 hours Beijing time.

On topic I don't think you know how subsidies work . What made you think CCP has to fund a product for 100% of its value ?!

Subsidies are land & water provided free of cost or at a nominal value with electricity tariffs being very low , low raw material costs ( which is where CCP imports such raw material from abroad in bulk to sell it to different manufacturers & it's the only country which does so ) , low rates of interest , low wages , prevent unions from forming which means worker exploitation in a communist state & if in spite of all this the product still isn't competitive internationally then the CCP needs to exempt it from taxes & / or reimburse it to the extent its selling price is higher to its nearest competitor.

This means if Product A sold from China in say Indonesia is x + 10 renminbi where 10 renminbi is the price differential between Product A & Product B from say India , then CCP only has to reimburse 12-13 renminbis to the mfg of Product A in China.
 
In my personal opinion China and India can grow and will grow, nobody can stop that.

However from my point of view, to grow as export powers both need to import too, I am not against commerce with China, but the problem is exports if are not balanced by imports means one nation is growing and other is not, since the one consuming is outsourcing jobs and services to the exporting country.

No nation can grow upon exports, the Chinese model is based upon tech transfers (copying) subsidies (government pays for failures), exports (foreigners pay for subsidies if possible), this model will have opposition by other industrial powers and emerging markets for sure.

As long as the communist lead party thinks that is the only way to grow, it will provoke tariffs, and since trade is becoming preferential via customs unions and free trade agreements, the possibility China can enters those markets are minimal, at the end they will need to balances their trade surpluses.

In fact, China's export to GDP ratio is 19.7%, Lower than most countries.

Mexico's is 36%

 
In fact, China's export to GDP ratio is 19.7%, Lower than most countries.

Mexico's is 36%

Goods Exports

The United States is the 2nd largest goods exporter in the world, behind only China. U.S. goods exports to the world totaled $2.1 trillion in 2022, up 17.5 percent ($307.3 billion) from 2021. Canada was the largest purchaser of U.S. goods exports in 2022, accounting for 17.3 percent of total U.S. goods exports. The top five purchasers of U.S. goods exports in 2022 were: Canada ($356.5 billion), Mexico ($324.3 billion), China ($150.4 billion), Japan ($80.2 billion), and the United Kingdom ($76.2 billion). U.S. goods exports to the European Union 27 were $350.8 billion.

Goods Imports

The United States is the largest goods importer in the world. U.S. goods imports from the world totaled $3.2 trillion in 2022, up 14.6 percent ($413.7 billion) from 2021. China was the top supplier of goods to the United States, accounting for 16.5 percent of total goods imports. The top five suppliers of U.S. goods imports in 2022 were: China ($536.3 billion), Mexico ($454.8 billion), Canada ($436.6 billion), Japan ($148.1 billion), and Germany ($146.6 billion). U.S. goods imports from the European Union 27 were $553.3 billion

Mexico imports more from the USA than China, obviously we have a more balanced trade withe the USA than China


July Total Trade


Total, All Countries
Total, Top 15 Countries
Mexico
Canada
China
[th]
Rank​
[/th][th]
Country​
[/th][th]
Exports​
[/th][th]
Imports​
[/th][th]
Total Trade​
[/th][th]
Percent of Total Trade​
[/th]​
[td]
---
[/td]​
[td]
168.8
[/td][td]
287.9
[/td][td]
456.8
[/td][td]
100.0%
[/td]​
[td]
---
[/td]​
[td]
119.6
[/td][td]
221.8
[/td][td]
341.4
[/td][td]
74.7%
[/td]​
[td]
1​
[/td]​
[td]
28.7​
[/td][td]
41.9​
[/td][td]
70.7​
[/td][td]
15.5%​
[/td]​
[td]
2​
[/td]​
[td]
27.7​
[/td][td]
35.8​
[/td][td]
63.5​
[/td][td]
13.9%​
[/td]​
[td]
3​
[/td]​
[td]
10.7​
[/td][td]
40.8​
[/td][td]
51.5​
[/td][td]
11.3%​
[/td]​
[td]
4
[/td]
[td]Japan[/td]
[td]
7.1
[/td][td]
13.2
[/td][td]
20.3
[/td]

China exported 4 times what it imported from the USA.

Mexico exported 1.25 times what it exported from the USA
 
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The main destinations of United States exports on Cars were Canada ($16.9B), Germany ($6.75B), China ($5.73B), South Korea ($3.81B), and Mexico ($3.35B). In 2022, United States imported $159B in Cars, mainly from Mexico ($34.1B), Japan ($32.9B), Canada ($27B), South Korea ($22.5B), and Germany ($17B).


Obviously in the case of Mexico we import more from the USA and most cars exported from Mexico are american brands, trump will need to discuss with car companies, but China buys much less than Mexico, imports much less from the USA thus the USA will be affected less by punitive tariffs against Chinese goods than from Mexican goods
 
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The main destinations of United States exports on Cars were Canada ($16.9B), Germany ($6.75B), China ($5.73B), South Korea ($3.81B), and Mexico ($3.35B). In 2022, United States imported $159B in Cars, mainly from Mexico ($34.1B), Japan ($32.9B), Canada ($27B), South Korea ($22.5B), and Germany ($17B).


Obviously in the case of Mexico we import more from the USA and most cars exported from Mexico are american brands, trump will need to discuss with car companies, but China buys much less than Mexico, imports much less from the USA thus the USA will be affected less by punitive tariffs against Chinese goods than from Mexican goods

If you put the estimation of drugs export to USA, u will surely get a totally different figure.
 
If you put the estimation of drugs export to USA, u will surely get a totally different figure.
Naah even in that case Balance of Payments shall be in China favor I believe as Mexico and America allege most of the material gets processed and shipped from China
 
If you put the estimation of drugs export to USA, u will surely get a totally different figure.
yes and remember CCP sells the fentanyl precursors CCP and narcos work together Chang.

Select Committee Unveils Findings into CCP's Role in American Fentanyl Epidemic - REPORT & HEARING​

Image

April 16, 2024

Press Release

chinito tamben is narco

1727254072328.png
 
Naah even in that case Balance of Payments shall be in China favor I believe as Mexico and America allege most of the material gets processed and shipped from China
correct the Chinese are narcos but Rockdog thinks he is blonde and a redneck to belittle Mexicans

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when he is Mongolic as the natives we have in Mexico
1727254374109.png
Some how he thinks he is a trump follower who complaigns about Mexican narcos when he is a CCP troll
 

China's building material giant, Saudi Aramco sign deal to advance green materials​

(Xinhua) 13:01, September 25, 2024
RIYADH, Sept. 24 (Xinhua) -- China National Building Material Group (CNBM) and Saudi Aramco signed a five-year cooperation agreement on Tuesday to explore new opportunities in advanced materials and industrial development.

The companies identified potential areas of collaboration, including establishing manufacturing facilities in Saudi Arabia for wind turbine blades, hydrogen storage tanks, lower-carbon building materials, and energy storage solutions.

They also discussed a joint technology development center and laboratory to promote innovation.

CNBM Chairman Zhou Yuxian said the agreement combined the strengths of both companies for a win-win partnership.

"The CNBM is dedicated to promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of the building materials industry," said Zhou. He added that this collaboration will help the CNBM utilize its expertise in offering comprehensive low-carbon solutions in the non-metallic materials sector, thereby supporting Saudi Aramco's transformation and development.

Wail Al Jaafari, Aramco's executive vice president for technical services, highlighted the company's commitment to expanding its relationship with CNBM to pursue breakthroughs in materials science.

"By combining Aramco's expertise in nonmetallic materials and CNBM's industry know-how, we aim to identify groundbreaking advances and new business opportunities," he said.

The cooperation agreement builds on Aramco's existing relationship with CNBM, following the launch of the Nonmetallic Excellence and Innovation Center for Building Materials in Beijing in 2021.
 

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