Indian Economy

[Nibbler]

China/South Korea's economic model is tried and tested and has yielded results.They have risen from low income group to high-income advanced economies with a massive middle class.
On the contrary, India's economic model has yielded sub-optimal results with a very small middle class and a large low-income population with no purchasing power.The country has only graduated from low income group to lower middle income group since opening up it's economy 34 years ago and will remain in this league for at least another 7-8 years.

The service-driven economic model that India is pursuing primarily benefits a tiny minority, which is why the majority of the middle class that you see in India often comes from people working in the I.T. sector.

Without a strong industrial base and a manufacturing-led economy, India has no realistic chance of either becoming an developed economy or a superpower.

China and South Korea population pyramids are terminal. Going down that path makes sense if there is an end goal

In South Koreans case what was it all for? One or two generations living well in Seoul? They speed ran to extinction and didn't get rid of the existential threat to their north.

If China does something to break out of the First island chain then it would some sense. If not, the same question can be posed to them.

Chest thumping for a generation or two is not worth going extinct for.

India should aim for the highest possible GDP growth while keeping fertility at replacement.

 

[randombully]

China and South Korea population pyramids are terminal. Going down that path makes sense if there is an end goal

In South Koreans case what was it all for? One or two generations living well in Seoul? They speed ran to extinction and didn't get rid of the existential threat to their north.

If China does something to break out of the First island chain then it would some sense. If not, the same question can be posed to them.

Chest thumping for a generation or two is not worth going extinct for.

India should aim for the highest possible GDP growth while keeping fertility at replacement.

Our fertility will go down the similar decline to what we are seeing in west, it's already starting with birth rate going down in india.
After 2040-2050 we will start hearing about our population pyramid looking similar to current europe and future problems it will bring in 2060-2080 which more older people, less working age group, more inflation etc.
While not as extreme as SK, but we're not escaping it either.
To maintain replacement level fertility for long term, the societal model needs to revert back to community and family focused rather than modern social individualism and liberalism.
While economic liberalism has proven to be overall best system out of all, but social liberalism cannot be sustained long term centuries wise, for long term stability lots of personal freedom that individualism and liberalism supports would need to be suppressed and society as a whole would need to be higher priority over individuals.
Even in authoritarian China which practices societal well being over individualism freedom, the younger generation is still lot more socially liberal and practice more individualism, though China being authoritarian also have relatively( relative to more democratic countries) more ability to try to improve birth rate.

West had decided to go immigration route to deal with population decline, and we can see the shit happening there.
Not to mention long term immigration will basically slowly replace the previous demographics and culture, and ultimately those immigrants will go the same route of individualism and will start suffering same birth rate decline.

Another way, is artifical lab birth, but that opens whole another can of worms.

 

[Nibbler]

Our fertility will go down the similar decline to what we are seeing in west, it's already starting with birth rate going down in india.
After 2040-2050 we will start hearing about our population pyramid looking similar to current europe and future problems it will bring in 2060-2080 which more older people, less working age group, more inflation etc.
While not as extreme as SK, but we're not escaping it either.
To maintain replacement level fertility for long term, the societal model needs to revert back to community and family focused rather than modern social individualism and liberalism.
While economic liberalism has proven to be overall best system out of all, but social liberalism cannot be sustained long term centuries wise, for long term stability lots of personal freedom that individualism and liberalism supports would need to be suppressed and society as a whole would need to be higher priority over individuals.
Even in authoritarian China which practices societal well being over individualism freedom, the younger generation is still lot more socially liberal and practice more individualism, though China being authoritarian also have relatively( relative to more democratic countries) more ability to try to improve birth rate.

West had decided to go immigration route to deal with population decline, and we can see the shit happening there.
Not to mention long term immigration will basically slowly replace the previous demographics and culture, and ultimately those immigrants will go the same route of individualism and will start suffering same birth rate decline.

Another way, is artifical lab birth, but that opens whole another can of worms.

Yeah pretty likely.

I have a hope that decline will get arrested due to arranged marriage culture

Also frankly Indian population has yet to move to urban centers en masse

I think the 2025 census will be a very interesting one

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

Our fertility will go down the similar decline to what we are seeing in west, it's already starting with birth rate going down in india.
After 2040-2050 we will start hearing about our population pyramid looking similar to current europe and future problems it will bring in 2060-2080 which more older people, less working age group, more inflation etc.
While not as extreme as SK, but we're not escaping it either.
To maintain replacement level fertility for long term, the societal model needs to revert back to community and family focused rather than modern social individualism and liberalism.
While economic liberalism has proven to be overall best system out of all, but social liberalism cannot be sustained long term centuries wise, for long term stability lots of personal freedom that individualism and liberalism supports would need to be suppressed and society as a whole would need to be higher priority over individuals.
Even in authoritarian China which practices societal well being over individualism freedom, the younger generation is still lot more socially liberal and practice more individualism, though China being authoritarian also have relatively( relative to more democratic countries) more ability to try to improve birth rate.

West had decided to go immigration route to deal with population decline, and we can see the shit happening there.
Not to mention long term immigration will basically slowly replace the previous demographics and culture, and ultimately those immigrants will go the same route of individualism and will start suffering same birth rate decline.

Another way, is artifical lab birth, but that opens whole another can of worms.

Imo our fertility rate right now is probably like 1.7-1.8,, we will hit peak by 2040. back in 1990s everybody thought robots will be future of manufacturing until, rise of immigrants after than slowed down automation quite a lot. If anti-immigrant sentiments persist, no doubt capitalists will go back to automation.

 

[ezsasa]

I highly doubt the numbers of UPA especially fiscal deficit. During the period 2010-2011 they ran fiscal deficit above 7%. Maybe these are adjusted numbers? I am not sure. UPA was simply printing money to drive growth by having double digit inflation. And unlike NDA they didn't have a black swan event like COVID. They ruined it for Modi in 2014 to immediately to fix the economy by having massive NPA's as well. UPA on the other hand got a booming economy from Vajpayee.

broadly aligns with official numbers, but they won't match exactly.


-lots of new economic activity was happening pre-GFC, private banks had started to focussing on retail banking, ambani younger brother was laying copper wire on roads everywhere for his CDMA, FDI was picking up, maruti was exporting cars, pharma was picking up etc..
-UPA1 was enjoying the fruits of vajpayee govt policies.
-comedy happens when you look at the numbers with actuals along with growth %. there have been two rebasing since then especially for per-2011 numbers. hence real GDP will look higher than nominal GDP now for pre-2011 data.
- notice the double digit inflations that occur, on the ground if we recall it was even worse.
-pre 2015-16, GDP data was being calculated based on MCA data of 5000 companies. now it's based on more than a lakh companies from MCA21. that's quite a improvement on quality of data.
- as you said, post GFC is when everything starts to unravel, up until modi comes into the picture.

 

[randombully]

Imo our fertility rate right now is probably like 1.7-1.8,, we will hit peak by 2040. back in 1990s everybody thought robots will be future of manufacturing until, rise of immigrants after than slowed down automation quite a lot. If anti-immigrant sentiments persist, no doubt capitalists will go back to automation.

Automation and robots can't replace "consumers".

 

[Nutcracker]

View attachment 26609

Common man doesn't understand difference between Nominal and Real. There should've been another column for Inflation.

 

[ezsasa]

Automation and robots can't replace "consumers".

yup, and we can expand on it a bit more.

if the companies(collectively) don't redistribute their profits not just to their share holders but also to their employees , they are slowing the spending power of the population. employee of one company is a consumer for multiple other companies. in an integrated economy, it has an impact on revenue of the company itself, if spending power is slowing down.

this point should be talked about more. this will become more relavant after the current round of capacity expansion is done.

murican model of slow wage rise, high share holder valuation has been a disaster for it's economy and the world.

caveats :
-not saying expansion should suffer at the cost of wage rise.
-not saying wage rise should happen in an unscientific manner.

 

[ezsasa]

Common man doesn't understand difference between Nominal and Real. There should've been another column for Inflation.

why would they, that's congi data point that haldi has posted.

 

[Anants]

yup, and we can expand on it a bit more.

if the companies(collectively) don't redistribute their profits not just to their share holders but also to their employees , they are slowing the spending power of the population. employee of one company is a consumer for multiple other companies. in an integrated economy, it has an impact on revenue of the company itself, if spending power is slowing down.

this point should be talked about more. this will become more relavant after the current round of capacity expansion is done.

murican model of slow wage rise, high share holder valuation has been a disaster for it's economy and the world.

caveats :
-not saying expansion should suffer at the cost of wage rise.
-not saying wage rise should happen in an unscientific manner.

Not to mention i see another great depression in making if Automation happens at break neck speed. Not all human can adapt and learn ultra high new skills. Not all highly skilled shall get the coveted jobs. Given west already knows this hence they are so enthusiastic about depopulation. Which is brain dead idea. As first their plan totally fails to factor black swan events. Second they shall slowly loose skilled technical manpower to keep driving automation innovation. Some populations shall still thrive even if they are piss poor technologicaly and shall brave out artifical depopulation efforts anyway. And west shall again have to resort to importing that population for sustainment. The only developed "western" country where fertility rate is above replacement rate is: Israel. But shall the future events shall choose them as western power circles hope: chosen ones?

 

[shade2]

China/South Korea's economic model is tried and tested and has yielded results.They have risen from low income group to high-income advanced economies with a massive middle class.
On the contrary, India's economic model has yielded sub-optimal results with a very small middle class and a large low-income population with no purchasing power.The country has only graduated from low income group to lower middle income group since opening up it's economy 34 years ago and will remain in this league for at least another 7-8 years.

The service-driven economic model that India is pursuing primarily benefits a tiny minority, which is why the majority of the middle class that you see in India often comes from people working in the I.T. sector.

Without a strong industrial base and a manufacturing-led economy, India has no realistic chance of either becoming an developed economy or a superpower.

This ((( services ))) based economy if done well can give all the trillion dollar GDP necessary but it's a scam in itself, today in the European countries UK has a 3.7 trillion dollar economy but it's better to have France or Germany's industrial oomph for a country rather than the pure banksterism and ((( foinance ))) of UK.

I'd put having a strong industrial base as a better national asset rather than these GDP numbers and service sector kanging.

 

[shade2]

The only developed "western" country where fertility rate is above replacement rate is: Israel. But shall the future events shall choose them as western power circles hope: chosen ones?

That is because 20% of their population is these kattar Orthodox Jooz, these are traditionalists and focus on having many kids with their wife and promote their kiddies to do the same when grown up.
These fellows are economically unproductive mostly, and live in Jerusalem or there abouts

The other is the Tel Aviv liberal or f4gg0t, there are the big brained and economy growing high-skilled folks, but since they are literally either f4gs who can't produce baccha or liberal couples who don't want to produce baccha, they are like your typical Europoid or Sooth Korean fertility rate crashers.

ofc like any country there is a middle segment of the population that has traits from both these blocs.


In the W*st they have buried Christianity so there are no kattar baccha producers over there remaining, in America there are but in Europe there is nothing.

 

[vin pahadi (kumauni)]

China/South Korea's economic model is tried and tested and has yielded results.They have risen from low income group to high-income advanced economies with a massive middle class.
On the contrary, India's economic model has yielded sub-optimal results with a very small middle class and a large low-income population with no purchasing power.The country has only graduated from low income group to lower middle income group since opening up it's economy 34 years ago and will remain in this league for at least another 7-8 years.

The service-driven economic model that India is pursuing primarily benefits a tiny minority, which is why the majority of the middle class that you see in India often comes from people working in the I.T. sector.

Without a strong industrial base and a manufacturing-led economy, India has no realistic chance of either becoming an developed economy or a superpower.

dont forget byproduct of industrialization is low birth rate, nuclear family, more stressful life, less family bounding, migration of people from rural to urban areas (which can create problems of resources, if cities r not planned well), more consumption nd more pollution, higher debts (external nd internal) etc.