Indian Economy

[Ajayant Tripathi]

I guess my confusion comes from your whole 'chinese are more disciplined than us, we let our currency slide, they did not' angle, coz i dont get how currency exchange rate is like weight watchers program and you can fall asleep at the wheel like us and become fatties apparently in 2 months flat, while apparently chinku always kept up his morning yoga so isnt currency-fatty.

Because from what i can see, the chinese shit-kicked their country far far worse than us in any 'economic' sense during great leap forward, where tens of millions died due to starvation and chinese production flatlined. That to my non-economics mind, should've yeilded 1USD = 5000 yen by this 'weight watchers' logic. Their great leap forward is the equivalent of doing 9 months of kari-tapsyaa weight-watchers then following it up with 10 successive weekends of Indian shaadi and its food.

But clearly it didnt, so clearly i dont understand this business of 'more disciplined with currency by doing 20 more currency pushups than us'.

Its not as simple as that. Hypothetically we can increase the value of INR and bring it on par with USD. But it will have drastic consequences in our domestic economy.


Currency exchange rate are not that much dependent on state of internal economy. They are more dependent on deficits. They starved their own people but didn't budge on exchange rates.

It will be akin to a household which chooses to forgo material acquisition but not rack up debts. They will take public transport but will not buy personal vehicle. They will eat food one time but will not buy on credit from local grocer. Thats what they did.

 

[Azaad]

If we give them duty free access, I presume the French will do well here. They won't be able to flood the market (our domestic industry is competitive and mature enough) tho.

I think we both know the issue isn't the price point. Every auto company has enjoyed success here to varying degrees except the Americans & the French.

Moreover you give concessions to one you give them to all .

The three pain points I listed are enough to stall the discussions. I am not sure how the gormint can navigate this, no govt of the land can guarantee concessions on the agri front.

Frankly I think the EU knows we won't budge on agriculture. And the way some functionary of the EU reacted recently it seems they aren't willing to compromise too though they're exasperated by our rigidity.

I was mocking Goyal and co because there are virtually no such roadblocks in case of the UK FTA and yet, they cannot get it done just cuz the UK will not accept more IT coolies. Goyal is the commerce Minister of a fast growing US$ 4 trillion economy, he should act like one.

Perhaps it hasn't anything to do with the economics of it then . We're just toying with them . See it as reciprocity for their initial attempts to sabotage our initial attempts at an FTA with the EU when they were part of it , pure politics , other factors , some or all the reasons listed then .

If in spite of this the FTA happens it'd be coz they compromised not us.

IPR is NTB, no? Switzerland hosts a number of drugmakers and medical equipment manufacturers and the TEPA did contain a section on IPR - the incumbent did not seem to mind at all.

Depends on whether they're ok with our laws governing IPR I reckon as far as patents on medicine goes. There has to be some agreement they've reached , which we aren't aware of or it could be the reasons I gave above.

Tbh, NTBs are mostly used as quality control tools till this date - they flush some cheap low quality stuff out and ensure IPR and/or regulatory compliance. It is the chings who perfected the art of employing NTBs as a weapon to flush out competition from abroad (some nations are fighting back in a similar fashion). The rest? Not so much.

The pioneers of using NTBs to stymie imports is a tool the world must be grateful to the west for . China's merely taken it to a different level.

There is still very little evidence of trading partners taking all these buzzwords ('muh rule of law', 'muh climate justice' etc) literally and turning them into NTBs. The EU CBAM is a notable exception and even that is primarily aimed against chinese overproduction.

It's aimed at any & every country the EU wants to target for whatever reasons. In between they went after Indonesia who had no choice but to give in to the EU's demands. I linked the article describing the issue involved a few months ago. I wouldn't take them lightly . Neither should you . It's enormous leverage for them to get recalcitrants in line with their policies or whatever it is they seek.

Because the SC milarrds are idiots. They should not have involved themselves in a matter they understood nothing about and could have left it to the gormint instead.

GoI could've filed a review petition seeking a stay in the interim or it could've come up with a via media. The very fact we didn't nor is there any movement on it signifies there's something going on behind the scenes we're unaware of.

 

[crazywithmath]

I think we both know the issue isn't the price point. Every auto company has enjoyed success here to varying degrees except the Americans & the French.

Moreover you give concessions to one you give them to all .


Frankly I think the EU knows we won't budge on agriculture. And the way some functionary of the EU reacted recently it seems they aren't willing to compromise too though they're exasperated by our rigidity.

Perhaps it hasn't anything to do with the economics of it then . We're just toying with them . See it as reciprocity for their initial attempts to sabotage our initial attempts at an FTA with the EU when they were part of it , pure politics , other factors , some or all the reasons listed then .

If in spite of this the FTA happens it'd be coz they compromised not us.

Depends on whether they're ok with our laws governing IPR I reckon as far as patents on medicine goes. There has to be some agreement they've reached , which we aren't aware of or it could be the reasons I gave above.

The pioneers of using NTBs to stymie imports is a tool the world must be grateful to the west for . China's merely taken it to a different level.

It's aimed at any & every country the EU wants to target for whatever reasons. In between they went after Indonesia who had no choice but to give in to the EU's demands. I linked the article describing the issue involved a few months ago. I wouldn't take them lightly . Neither should you . It's enormous leverage for them to get recalcitrants in line with their policies or whatever it is they seek.

GoI could've filed a review petition seeking a stay in the interim or it could've come up with a via media. The very fact we didn't nor is there any movement on it signifies there's something going on behind the scenes we're unaware of.

1. The FTA with EU is not happening (too many roadblocks). But the UK one is very much possible to ink.

2. Goyal is indeed a walking talking clown. It is not a cope for calling out for exactly what it is.

3. His Minstry posted faulty trade data and tanked the Rupee - in a more serious nation the Minister would lose his job over this.

4. He was promising an FTA with UK by 2022 and gave his word for it, again, he is lucky because there is ZERO accountability.

5. Going by the media reports it is very much clear why the UK FTA is stuck. Look how cleverly the Minister is hiding behind wordplay (news got leaked that he was dragging his feet on the FTS because the UK govt was not interested in more IT coolies and the Minister got absolutely smoked on the social media platforms, even incumbent EACPM members joined in on and so the Minsiter ji came up with his galaxy brained takes) - by making a distinction between 'immigration' and 'business visas';

Piyush Goyal pitches for liberal visa regime to promote trade, investments between India, UK

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal advocated for a more liberal visa regime for businesses and professionals between India and the UK to enhance bilateral trade and investments. He emphasized that immigration issues have not been part of free trade agreement discussions, focusing...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[Azaad]

1. The FTA with EU is not happening (too many roadblocks). But the UK one is very much possible to ink.

2. Goyal is indeed a walking talking clown. It is not a cope for calling out for exactly what it is.

3. His Minstry posted faulty trade data and tanked the Rupee - in a more serious nation the Minister would lose his job over this.

4. He was promising an FTA with UK by 2022 and gave his word for it, again, he is lucky because there is ZERO accountability.

5. Going by the media reports it is very much clear why the UK FTA is stuck. Look how cleverly the Minister is hiding behind wordplay (news got leaked that he was dragging his feet on the FTS because the UK govt was not interested in more IT coolies and the Minister got absolutely smoked on the social media platforms, even incumbent EACPM members joined in on and so the Minsiter ji came up with his galaxy brained takes) - by making a distinction between 'immigration' and 'business visas';

Piyush Goyal pitches for liberal visa regime to promote trade, investments between India, UK

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal advocated for a more liberal visa regime for businesses and professionals between India and the UK to enhance bilateral trade and investments. He emphasized that immigration issues have not been part of free trade agreement discussions, focusing...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

You seem to be labouring under the impression Goel is running the cabinet . Do you actually think if the FTA with UK was deemed imperative by Modi , Goel would be in the way ?

 

[GaudaNaresh]

1. The FTA with EU is not happening (too many roadblocks). But the UK one is very much possible to ink.

2. Goyal is indeed a walking talking clown. It is not a cope for calling out for exactly what it is.

3. His Minstry posted faulty trade data and tanked the Rupee - in a more serious nation the Minister would lose his job over this.

4. He was promising an FTA with UK by 2022 and gave his word for it, again, he is lucky because there is ZERO accountability.

5. Going by the media reports it is very much clear why the UK FTA is stuck. Look how cleverly the Minister is hiding behind wordplay (news got leaked that he was dragging his feet on the FTS because the UK govt was not interested in more IT coolies and the Minister got absolutely smoked on the social media platforms, even incumbent EACPM members joined in on and so the Minsiter ji came up with his galaxy brained takes) - by making a distinction between 'immigration' and 'business visas';

Piyush Goyal pitches for liberal visa regime to promote trade, investments between India, UK

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal advocated for a more liberal visa regime for businesses and professionals between India and the UK to enhance bilateral trade and investments. He emphasized that immigration issues have not been part of free trade agreement discussions, focusing...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Someone please tell me WTF does India actually gain from UK FTA. Its the one country we dont care to immigrate to anymore and is the one anglosphere country turning fast-track into an islamist shithole, faster than even germany is.
They have ZERO resources, their industrial capacity is next to zero, what exactly do we gain by FTA with the brits ?Some of our babus get insider-access to london financial market and run some mega-scams???

UK is out of EU. Soon, NATO will be done too as US is losing interest in fundamental premise of NATO( Russia bad, Russia can only be stopped by NATO). So there is zero geo-strategic angle to UK as well. UK is also a hugely populated land - even if we figured out how to beat muslim immigration+breeding rate into UK, its STILL bigger in population than Canada and Australia put together and demographic battle for that shit island will take centuries.
WHAT does India gain from FTA with UK ????? UK isnt australia or Canada needing immigration.
Its a land that has no resources, is not fit for colonisation, is not going to be a major player geo-politically in future AND to top off will be a islamist shithole. So WTF.

 

[Cheepek]

Can you explain to me, why did China, at same or worse economic benchmark as India in 1950, throughout its 'completely poor starving africa' stage to ' middle income success story' has never let the Yuan devalue as much as the Rupee ?
IIRC exhange rate for Yuan never dropped below 10, ie, 1USD = 10 Yuan is the alltime low since Chinese independence.
Whereas we have gone from 1USD = 40INR from 1995 to double that in 2025.

I understand your equation perfectly, but why is this equation requiring us to have 1USD = 80INR to retain competitive advantage, when China retains the same with a currency that is literally 16 times more valuable than ours ??

Simply because US ran a trade deficit with China from the 80s, while it ran a trade surplus with India. INR is weak because our trade-game is weak.

China has ran mostly surplus throughout recent history while India has ran deficits

China Trade Balance 1960-2025

External balance on goods and services (formerly resource balance) equals exports of goods and services minus imports of goods and services (previously nonfactor services). Data are in current U.S. dollars.

www.macrotrends.net

India Trade Balance 1960-2025

External balance on goods and services (formerly resource balance) equals exports of goods and services minus imports of goods and services (previously nonfactor services). Data are in current U.S. dollars.

www.macrotrends.net

 

[shuturmurg]

Someone please tell me WTF does India actually gain from UK FTA. Its the one country we dont care to immigrate to anymore and is the one anglosphere country turning fast-track into an islamist shithole, faster than even germany is.
They have ZERO resources, their industrial capacity is next to zero, what exactly do we gain by FTA with the brits ?Some of our babus get insider-access to london financial market and run some mega-scams???

UK is out of EU. Soon, NATO will be done too as US is losing interest in fundamental premise of NATO( Russia bad, Russia can only be stopped by NATO). So there is zero geo-strategic angle to UK as well. UK is also a hugely populated land - even if we figured out how to beat muslim immigration+breeding rate into UK, its STILL bigger in population than Canada and Australia put together and demographic battle for that shit island will take centuries.
WHAT does India gain from FTA with UK ????? UK isnt australia or Canada needing immigration.
Its a land that has no resources, is not fit for colonisation, is not going to be a major player geo-politically in future AND to top off will be a islamist shithole. So WTF.

India gains by doing FTA with RICH countries and not developing countries like ASEAN (as they are out competitors).

FTA with rich country like UK or EU gives us duty free access to their markets for our textiles, electronics, etc.

The main exports for UK, EU etc are higher end manufactured goods or luxury goods. India doesn't compete in those markets. So, our economies are complementary.

The biggest problem is agriculture as our agriculture is very unproductive as its not large scale mechanized farming, but mostly small scale farming. On top of that, EU has very high standards for agri products, which our producers won't meet anyways, hence will be locked out of their markets. Also, if we give in on agriculture imports, our annadatas would burn down parliament.

 

[GaudaNaresh]

India gains by doing FTA with RICH countries and not developing countries like ASEAN (as they are out competitors).

FTA with rich country like UK or EU gives us duty free access to their markets for our textiles, electronics, etc.

The main exports for UK, EU etc are higher end manufactured goods or luxury goods. India doesn't compete in those markets. So, our economies are complementary.

The biggest problem is agriculture as our agriculture is very unproductive as its not large scale mechanized farming, but mostly small scale farming. On top of that, EU has very high standards for agri products, which our producers won't meet anyways, hence will be locked out of their markets. Also, if we give in on agriculture imports, our annadatas would burn down parliament.

EU is market. What is UK market ? Again, UK market is like marketing to Singapore+Malaysia. LITERALLY. the buying power of Brits outside london & british gdp per capita outside London metro = Malaysia. London = Singapore.
How much can u want to sell to the 15mil who live in London, really ??? UK is no market. Your argument is very well applicable to EU or Japan or USA - big market. Even Brazil - a deecnt sized and fast emergent market. Wot de foc is declining 3rd world economy+1 rich city state economy of 60 million have to offer as market size to 1.4 billion country.
Its Ulta...WE are market for them to sell their substandard junk is why they want us. They profit a lot from FTA with us.I still dont see what we get from the limeys.
they dont have size to be market, they are not rich enough to be market for future, they are not rich in resources, they are not requiring colonisation and they are geopolitically isolated and getting more and more so.

UK-India FTA sounds like sinking anglo ship desperately wants to beach his sinking ship in India and then try and take pangaa with locals like last time.

 

[crazywithmath]

Someone please tell me WTF does India actually gain from UK FTA. Its the one country we dont care to immigrate to anymore and is the one anglosphere country turning fast-track into an islamist shithole, faster than even germany is.
They have ZERO resources, their industrial capacity is next to zero, what exactly do we gain by FTA with the brits ?Some of our babus get insider-access to london financial market and run some mega-scams???

That is precisely why we should sign the FTA and outcompete the chongs who they are wary of anyway. Why wouldn't you want a big market to export your products? Why does it matter to us that they are becoming 'islamist shotholes' or whatever? Why is it relevant?

WHAT does India gain from FTA with UK ?????

$$

We export stuff and earn bucks. Simple.

UK isnt australia or Canada needing immigration.
Its a land that has no resources, is not fit for colonisation, is not going to be a major player geo-politically in future AND to top off will be a islamist shithole. So WTF.

I do not care about immigration into UK. Not relevant to trade.

 

[crazywithmath]

EU is market. What is UK market ? Again, UK market is like marketing to Singapore+Malaysia. LITERALLY. the buying power of Brits outside london & british gdp per capita outside London metro = Malaysia. London = Singapore.
How much can u want to sell to the 15mil who live in London, really ??? UK is no market. Your argument is very well applicable to EU or Japan or USA - big market. Even Brazil - a deecnt sized and fast emergent market. Wot de foc is declining 3rd world economy+1 rich city state economy of 60 million have to offer as market size to 1.4 billion country.
Its Ulta...WE are market for them to sell their substandard junk is why they want us. They profit a lot from FTA with us.I still dont see what we get from the limeys.
they dont have size to be market, they are not rich enough to be market for future, they are not rich in resources, they are not requiring colonisation and they are geopolitically isolated and getting more and more so.

UK-India FTA sounds like sinking anglo ship desperately wants to beach his sinking ship in India and then try and take pangaa with locals like last time.

Bruh! I understsnd you despise these goras with a passion but dhandha is dhandha. Look up Arvind Virmani's (member of EACPM and advisor of Modi) views - we need duty free access to richer nations to grow our manufacturing.

 

[GaudaNaresh]

Bruh! I understsnd you despise these goras with a passion but dhandha is dhandha. Look up Arvind Virmani's (member of EACPM and advisor of Modi) views - we need duty free access to richer nations to grow our manufacturing.

Did you not read or did you think i am a dumbass who hates goras enough to be a dumbass about facts ?
UK is no market.
Its a piddly ass nation of 70 million, with horrible economic metrics, some of the LEAST disposable income and productivity rates in entire G20 and its metrics are almost entirely powered by the London Financial sector. Its own consumer metrics is ghastly, anyone who thinks UK is a market worth selling to, has been sleeping on what a complete disaster UK economy is over the last 15 years and counting.

FTA with canada makes sense. FTA with Aussie, EU, Rus, USA, Japan, Brazil, heck, even Saudi makes sense. UK makes zero sense. They are a collapsing economy and up sheet creek without a paddle.And once dollar hegemony goes, their last card in the deck - London Financial market- also collapses and then its gg, welcome to being Argentina or worse, Venezuela for anglo island.That isnt hatred talking, that is cold,hard mathematical reality.
Any Indian who thinks UK has anything to offer India economically hasnt followed UK economy for last 15 years.

 

[crazywithmath]

You seem to be labouring under the impression Goel is running the cabinet . Do you actually think if the FTA with UK was deemed imperative by Modi , Goel would be in the way ?

Modi's EACPM members and CEA are pro FTA (they are quite vocal about it too). My understanding is that the deals are stuck over some minor disagreements like business visas etc which is just sad - a more competent Minister would be more proactive and amenable. I was reading some gora media article which claimed that even the Brits were fed up because much of the deliberation was done and dusted but the Indian side just would not commit to it because of some disagreements they deemed insignificant - make of it what you will.

 

[crazywithmath]

Did you not read or did you think i am a dumbass who hates goras enough to be a dumbass about facts ?
UK is no market.
Its a piddly ass nation of 70 million, with horrible economic metrics, some of the LEAST disposable income and productivity rates in entire G20 and its metrics are almost entirely powered by the London Financial sector. Its own consumer metrics is ghastly, anyone who thinks UK is a market worth selling to, has been sleeping on what a complete disaster UK economy is over the last 15 years and counting.

Smartphone market worth US$ 5 billion, annually.
Annual solar panel imports worth US$ 5 billion
Annual steel imports > 5 million metric ton

Exactly the sectors we have been eyeing with PLI. Given our near double digit growth in non petroleum exports (ie, our electronics and engineering goods are competitive) in recent years, pretty good chances we make a fortune here.

 

[Azaad]

Modi's EACPM members and CEA are pro FTA (they are quite vocal about it too). My understanding is that the deals are stuck over some minor disagreements like business visas etc which is just sad - a more competent Minister would be more proactive and amenable. I was reading some gora media article which claimed that even the Brits were fed up because much of the deliberation was done and dusted but the Indian side just would not commit to it because of some disagreements they deemed insignificant - make of it what you will.

Then the dispute is political. Could be a case of display of collective angst of the GoI for all those fugitives seeking asylum in the UK , their foreign office trying desperately to rehabilitate the Paxtanis in Washington , payback for their home office sabotaging our previous attempts at an FTA with the EU when UK was a member of it & on & on .

In short there's no goodwill on our part or this would've been sorted out long ago.

What you're pointing out could well be a case of good cop bad cop @ Modi's EACPM members and CEA are pro FTA .Modi's not inclined to bail out the Brits with an FTA. This government has dug in its heels. It's clear they're driving a hard bargain.

If the FTA happens it'd be on our terms or the Brits can go phuck themselves & get their underaged daughters to get phucked by the Mirpuris.

 

[Prasad]

No FTA with UK or Canada, ever.

With in EU, do with individual countries than with whole of EU.

 

[crazywithmath]

If the FTA happens it'd be on our terms or the Brits can go phuck themselves & get their underaged daughters to get phucked by the Mirpuris.

Of course it should happen on our terms, we do not want a repeat of ASEAN FTA. But a 4 trillion economy can afford to be more ambitious and forgiving, idk how much sense it makes to stall an FTA over some business visa quotas.

No FTA with UK or Canada, ever.

Chongs or the erstwhile Asian tigers would not be here if they so transactional. A growing economy needs market access to export, that is the only proven way of getting rich. FTA discussions with Canada is already stalled so irrelevant here.

 

[GaudaNaresh]

Smartphone market worth US$ 5 billion, annually.
Annual solar panel imports worth US$ 5 billion
Annual steel imports > 5 million metric ton

Exactly the sectors we have been eyeing with PLI. Given our near double digit growth in non petroleum exports (ie, our electronics and engineering goods are competitive) in recent years, pretty good chances we make a fortune here.

These are small chump change numbers. We want FTA with a nation that gives us 10 billion market and steel ?we will never outsell steel to anyone over China, trying that is folly.
Yes, they have pichku-phuchku electronics and consumer sector. They are a market of 70 mil. with ALL spending power projected to go sharply down over time. So where is their future spending power is my question. britain is on economic decline. their productivity is on decline. their every single metric is downwards for last 10-15 years. and they are just 70 mil.

Again, they aint EU.they aint even as attractive as Aussie because Aussie comes with 50% market but far more spending power and huge resource bank.
As a consumer-base UK is tiny.
The big negative is it gives brits, aka their islamists a lot of economic leverage within India due to FTA and due to FTA link they get economic pipeline to run jihadism in India and provide mighty anglo BBC cover fire to make it happen.

I am definitely not taking that risk - UK is not a market worthwhile for that risk, EU is.

 

[Azaad]

Of course it should happen on our terms, we do not want a repeat of ASEAN FTA. But a 4 trillion economy can afford to be more ambitious and forgiving,

idk how much sense it makes to stall an FTA over some business visa quotas.

That's precisely what I'm trying to put out for the past 3 posts but you're not paying attention. If according to you this detail shouldn't be a deal breaker yet it is , doesn't that convey we're playing hardball ? Why would we do so unless we're hell-bent on making a point ?

I don't think you're aware of the animosity towards the Brits in our MEA essentially but also other ministries on their double dealing. There's certainly no love lost for them. Hence , no goodwill .

 

[crazywithmath]

These are small chump change numbers. We want FTA with a nation that gives us 10 billion market and steel ?we will never outsell steel to anyone over China, trying that is folly.

Brits are erecting market barriers against the chongs. Look at the number of anti dumping duties they have introduced in recent years.

The big negative is it gives brits, aka their islamists a lot of economic leverage within India due to FTA and due to FTA link they get economic pipeline to run jihadism in India and provide mighty anglo BBC cover fire to make it happen.

I am definitely not taking that risk - UK is not a market worthwhile for that risk, EU is.

What does an FTA have to do with brit jihadis? It is an FTA, they only get to export some stuff at minimal duties, that is about it. We are not making an intelligence sharing alliance here.

 

[crazywithmath]

That's precisely what I'm trying to put out for the past 3 posts but you're not paying attention. If according to you this detail shouldn't be a deal breaker yet it is , doesn't that convey we're playing hardball ? Why would we do so unless we're hell-bent on making a point ?

I don't think you're aware of the animosity towards the Brits in our MEA essentially but also other ministries on their double dealing. There's certainly no love lost for them. Hence , no goodwill .

I think we are going in circles so my last response on this - the Indian babudom is obsessed with these 'business visa quotas' and they are willing to go great lengths to bag them. They do not care if it stalls the negotiations.

Also, one reason why the FTA with the GCC nations has not seen much progress. The one with the Aussies got completed because they were more open to accepting temporary workers (joker Goyal even bragged about it).