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Both ... Its not a "friend" just a professional contact ..Drunk ? Him while telling me and ministerji while ranting.
Indian Economy
- Thread starter haldilal
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Yes, it is? And the 10 yr avg CAGR is lower than our nominal GDP growth.
Our export basket is sufficiently diverse - electronics, solar panels, automobiles, electrical equipment, petroleum, gems and jewellery, textiles, pharma, chemicals, semiconductor and the list goes on. And it reflects in our economic complexity numbers. Barring petroleum products (owing to record low crude prices) almost every other sector is on steroids, what better time than now to ink some FTAs?
How does it make sense to delay a deal over something that barely moves the needle (ie, remittances) and compromising on the true sunrise opportunities in the process?
The kind of 'business/working visas' Goyal and co are fighting for is anything but 'high value'.
The true 'high value' service exports are the Indian scientists working at CERN or the Indian engineers heading the overseas design and R&D labs of Tata Motors and Eicher. The TCS/Infy product managers Goyal and co are trying to ship do not even come close.
Remittances are an absolute dampener to domestic investments. They cripple domestic investments, prioritize consumptions over setting up meaningful greenfield projects and ultimately put stress on the exchange rates by making it less predictive and even appreciating the currency at times (thereby limiting export opportunities).
Which is why every failed nation has a remittance fuelled unproductive real estate boom - be it pakiland, be it Somalia, be it Burkina Faso or anywhere else.
Following is a link to an IMF paper that cautions member countries against pursuing remittances as a meaningful avenue to grow their economy (yeah, I understand this is not a hardcore econometrics forum but still);
The Impact of Remittances on Economic Activity: The Importance of Sectoral Linkages
We propose a simple macroeconomic model with input-output sectoral linkages based on Acemoglu et al. (2016) to quantify how changes in aggregate demand due to additional income from household’s remittances propagates through the network of input-output linkages in Sub-Saharan African countries...www.elibrary.imf.org
Do not get me wrong, remittances are a nice launchpad for piss poor nations. But we are way past that stage of development.
The avg Indian settling abroad is anything but 'creme de la creme'. And we do not have to worry about a tiny no of top 1 %ilers settling abroad. Most jobs (even the highly technical ones) are highly trainable and us lagging in terms of real innovation is not a supply side problem - it is a demand issue and I have talked about it before. If the state throws money in it and the domestic economy continues to grow (thereby generating demand for high end innovative products) even the guys staying back will create competitive and innovative stuff.
The govt should not care. Those who want to leave are welcome to do so. Those who want to stay back in build in India are welcome too. The govt must not turn a facilitator for the immigrants, that is NOT their job.
In that period? Yes, it was the single largest contributor.
And then the clowns found out that they were putting out erroneous figures for several months.
Of course it makes perfect sense to scout for oil and natgas fields when crude is inching towards historic lows. ONGC Videsh even has a number of active projects and the FM proudly sets ambitious targets every year (only to yield nothing by the end of the FY). Oil is not going anywhere, plastics and polystyrenes are not going anywhere - howsoever strong the global renewables push might be.
Funnily enough, they have some active projects to scout for rare earth metals too. But have not managed to achieve jack yet.
They were on a purchasing spree post the '90s and done acquiring them (mostly) by 2014-15;
View attachment 29632
View attachment 29633
Look how many upcoming oilfields they have acquired stakes in across LatAm;
Top ten upcoming crude oil fields in South America
The total oil & gas production South America increased by 15.38% in 2023 when compared with 2022.www.offshore-technology.com
They even went after the American and the Mexican oilfields, albeit, unsuccessfully;
China's CNOOC sells off U.S. oil and gas interests in Gulf of Mexico
Company cites uncertainty as it moves to cut riskasia.nikkei.com
The UPA govt at least tried to compete with them;
India loses $5 bn bid for Kashagan oil field to China
ONGC has lost the Kashagan oilfield to the Chinese after Kazakhstan blocked its $5 bn deal to buy ConocoPhillips' stake in Caspian Sea oilfield.economictimes.indiatimes.com
Puri and co do not even care.
I am sorry but this is entirely on the Minister. The PM (and his advisors) only make the broad economic policy calls, to adjust for international price fluctuations is entirely on the concerned Minister and his babus.
Underperformance is nothing new for Puri tho. Coal India failed to meet even the 'revised' domestic production targets when he was the coal Minister. Almost all the metro and RRTS projects were struggling when he was managing MoHUA. And yet, the Minister was bragging about housing Muslim slum dwellers in the Central Vista premises and getting fact checked by his own colleagues and partymen.
I do not think it is corruption, btw. Just plain old incompetence - the babus cannot grasp global markets and are fearful of international price fluctuations so they refrain from tinkering with the domestic refined prices. They likely have drawn a Laxman rekha here, they won't increase the prices even if the global crude prices go through the roofs because they are fearful of political repurcussions - at this rate, they might be planning keep the prices fixed for a decade, who knows. Which is just plain stupid.
View: https://twitter.com/daeroplate_v2/status/1908372214757326945?s=19
View: https://twitter.com/calm_sutra/status/1908509192261947465?s=19
As EU TFR drops this problem will get more acute. And this will be seen as early as mid next decade . As it is EU has shot itself in the foot by hosting peacefuls whether legal or illegal immigrants.
The only other option for them is import. Till such time we'd keep hemorrhaging talent. A biz visa helps us keep them as our citizens, provide valuable FOREX as remittances & ensure dependencies on us.
Not all our calculations need be based on the here & now . Observing each country's TFR & future trends in it ought to be mandatory along with their economic health indicators - a vital factor to be considered in FTA negotiations.
Last edited:
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Overdue Economic Reforms for India
India now has a critical opportunity to accelerate long-overdue economic reforms in the wake of Trump’s tariffs. These disruptive tariffs have unsettled global trade, leaving uncertainty in their wake. While their success remains debatable, the message is clear: ‘Reform or Perish’.
India’s economic reforms—often centred around liberalization and privatization—must include streamlining labor laws, reforming public sector banks, improving the ease of doing business, and addressing regional disparities. These measures are crucial to ensuring sustained economic growth and global competitiveness.
However, implementing these reforms requires parliamentary approval, where opposition parties with divergent agendas are unlikely to reach a consensus. Yet, the fear and uncertainty created by Trump’s trade policies may reduce resistance to change. Just as the government pushed through Waqf Board reforms, it must now demonstrate the same political will to drive an ambitious economic reform package forward.
There is widespread concern that Trump’s tariffs will negatively impact India’s economy. If GDP growth slows by even a few percentage points, it could be perceived as economic mismanagement—jeopardizing electoral prospects. India stands at a crossroads much like in 1991, when Dr. Manmohan Singh’s economic reforms set the country on a trajectory of progress. The lesson is clear: push for reforms now, or risk losing power sooner rather than later.
The economic liberalization of 1991 undeniably propelled India forward. Similarly, bold reforms in response to today’s trade shocks could chart an even stronger path for India’s future economic success. If state ownership is reduced then inherent laziness in the public sector will be a thing of the past. Corruption will be reduce and accountability, responsibility and discipline will become norm of the day……. Cheers.
Further reading at:
https://unacademy.com/content/upsc/...onomic-reforms-in-india/#:~:text=Deregulation of Industrial Sector:,Indian and foreign private banks
India now has a critical opportunity to accelerate long-overdue economic reforms in the wake of Trump’s tariffs. These disruptive tariffs have unsettled global trade, leaving uncertainty in their wake. While their success remains debatable, the message is clear: ‘Reform or Perish’.
India’s economic reforms—often centred around liberalization and privatization—must include streamlining labor laws, reforming public sector banks, improving the ease of doing business, and addressing regional disparities. These measures are crucial to ensuring sustained economic growth and global competitiveness.
However, implementing these reforms requires parliamentary approval, where opposition parties with divergent agendas are unlikely to reach a consensus. Yet, the fear and uncertainty created by Trump’s trade policies may reduce resistance to change. Just as the government pushed through Waqf Board reforms, it must now demonstrate the same political will to drive an ambitious economic reform package forward.
There is widespread concern that Trump’s tariffs will negatively impact India’s economy. If GDP growth slows by even a few percentage points, it could be perceived as economic mismanagement—jeopardizing electoral prospects. India stands at a crossroads much like in 1991, when Dr. Manmohan Singh’s economic reforms set the country on a trajectory of progress. The lesson is clear: push for reforms now, or risk losing power sooner rather than later.
The economic liberalization of 1991 undeniably propelled India forward. Similarly, bold reforms in response to today’s trade shocks could chart an even stronger path for India’s future economic success. If state ownership is reduced then inherent laziness in the public sector will be a thing of the past. Corruption will be reduce and accountability, responsibility and discipline will become norm of the day……. Cheers.
Further reading at:
https://unacademy.com/content/upsc/...onomic-reforms-in-india/#:~:text=Deregulation of Industrial Sector:,Indian and foreign private banks
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Yes, it is? And the 10 yr avg CAGR is lower than our nominal GDP growth.
Our export basket is sufficiently diverse - electronics, solar panels, automobiles, electrical equipment, petroleum, gems and jewellery, textiles, pharma, chemicals, semiconductor and the list goes on. And it reflects in our economic complexity numbers. Barring petroleum products (owing to record low crude prices) almost every other sector is on steroids, what better time than now to ink some FTAs?
How does it make sense to delay a deal over something that barely moves the needle (ie, remittances) and compromising on the true sunrise opportunities in the process?
The kind of 'business/working visas' Goyal and co are fighting for is anything but 'high value'.
The true 'high value' service exports are the Indian scientists working at CERN or the Indian engineers heading the overseas design and R&D labs of Tata Motors and Eicher. The TCS/Infy product managers Goyal and co are trying to ship do not even come close.
Remittances are an absolute dampener to domestic investments. They cripple domestic investments, prioritize consumptions over setting up meaningful greenfield projects and ultimately put stress on the exchange rates by making it less predictive and even appreciating the currency at times (thereby limiting export opportunities).
Which is why every failed nation has a remittance fuelled unproductive real estate boom - be it pakiland, be it Somalia, be it Burkina Faso or anywhere else.
Following is a link to an IMF paper that cautions member countries against pursuing remittances as a meaningful avenue to grow their economy (yeah, I understand this is not a hardcore econometrics forum but still);
The Impact of Remittances on Economic Activity: The Importance of Sectoral Linkages
We propose a simple macroeconomic model with input-output sectoral linkages based on Acemoglu et al. (2016) to quantify how changes in aggregate demand due to additional income from household’s remittances propagates through the network of input-output linkages in Sub-Saharan African countries...
Do not get me wrong, remittances are a nice launchpad for piss poor nations. But we are way past that stage of development.
The avg Indian settling abroad is anything but 'creme de la creme'. And we do not have to worry about a tiny no of top 1 %ilers settling abroad. Most jobs (even the highly technical ones) are highly trainable and us lagging in terms of real innovation is not a supply side problem - it is a demand issue and I have talked about it before. If the state throws money in it and the domestic economy continues to grow (thereby generating demand for high end innovative products) even the guys staying back will create competitive and innovative stuff.
The govt should not care. Those who want to leave are welcome to do so. Those who want to stay back in build in India are welcome too. The govt must not turn a facilitator for the immigrants, that is NOT their job.
In that period? Yes, it was the single largest contributor.
And then the clowns found out that they were putting out erroneous figures for several months.
Of course it makes perfect sense to scout for oil and natgas fields when crude is inching towards historic lows. ONGC Videsh even has a number of active projects and the FM proudly sets ambitious targets every year (only to yield nothing by the end of the FY). Oil is not going anywhere, plastics and polystyrenes are not going anywhere - howsoever strong the global renewables push might be.
Funnily enough, they have some active projects to scout for rare earth metals too. But have not managed to achieve jack yet.
They were on a purchasing spree post the '90s and done acquiring them (mostly) by 2014-15;
View attachment 29632
View attachment 29633
Look how many upcoming oilfields they have acquired stakes in across LatAm;
Top ten upcoming crude oil fields in South America
The total oil & gas production South America increased by 15.38% in 2023 when compared with 2022.
They even went after the American and the Mexican oilfields, albeit, unsuccessfully;
China's CNOOC sells off U.S. oil and gas interests in Gulf of Mexico
Company cites uncertainty as it moves to cut risk
The UPA govt at least tried to compete with them;
India loses $5 bn bid for Kashagan oil field to China
ONGC has lost the Kashagan oilfield to the Chinese after Kazakhstan blocked its $5 bn deal to buy ConocoPhillips' stake in Caspian Sea oilfield.
Puri and co do not even care.
I am sorry but this is entirely on the Minister. The PM (and his advisors) only make the broad economic policy calls, to adjust for international price fluctuations is entirely on the concerned Minister and his babus.
Underperformance is nothing new for Puri tho. Coal India failed to meet even the 'revised' domestic production targets when he was the coal Minister. Almost all the metro and RRTS projects were struggling when he was managing MoHUA. And yet, the Minister was bragging about housing Muslim slum dwellers in the Central Vista premises and getting fact checked by his own colleagues and partymen.
I do not think it is corruption, btw. Just plain old incompetence - the babus cannot grasp global markets and are fearful of international price fluctuations so they refrain from tinkering with the domestic refined prices. They likely have drawn a Laxman rekha here, they won't increase the prices even if the global crude prices go through the roofs because they are fearful of political repurcussions - at this rate, they might be planning keep the prices fixed for a decade, who knows. Which is just plain stupid.
By design. Modi likes to surround himself with incompetent clowns. You are safe as long as you praise Supreme leader 24/7. .
and then you will immediately shut up when the fanbois go "56 is the wonly aaaaption"
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and what happened before that during UPA when every ministry carved out a fiefdom independent of MMS's PMO?
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Bankrupt UK has a consumer market on par with supapowa vishwaguru. They are deindustrializing, so most of it is imported. The problem with india is too many have too much hubris and simply don't recognise the state of the country. The worst is babus with power behave exactly like this. Not signing an FTA with UK will be peak 76-IQ.
>Brit Jihadis get easier time funneling jihad money to India
who gives a fk? Let them funnel all the jihad money they want. After all, supreme leader loves hugging saudi and qatar leaders, who fund 100x that amount. At least with FTA, millions of rural indians get another shot of working in factory jobs
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yesterday i was going thru chidu's interim budget speech in 2014, among other things this caught my attention.
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I do not have an issue with others poaching Indian talents tho, that is standard market practice. Let the markets take care of it. The govt should not and must not care about it. Like I wrote
==================================
It is absolutely true that Modi's cabinet is short on talents. Ironically, some of the better performing Ministers (Vaishnaw, Gadkari) get abused far too often while the likes of Puri, Ninda Mama and Goyal keep getting away scot free. As others have pointed out, quite likely that Ji has started rewarding loyalty over performance.
and then you will immediately shut up when the fanbois go "56 is the wonly aaaaption"
That is fine. The opposition stopped caring about the economy about a decade back. It makes sense to vote for the incumbent.
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FTA also doesn't change our local laws in any ways, so if UK based jihadi try to finance local mullah, govt would know it.
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While yes-men are a issue, sometimes people try to peddle their "competent people" agenda , which only wants to push people with differing mindset into a cabinet, an cabinet needs to have a common goal, we can't have 5 different ministers having 15 different ideas.
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View: https://x.com/AvisharDutta/status/1908804765829497089
not all is rosy with trumps tariffs. Local players are already ringing alarm bells to the government about gulf countries taking away many jobs. Lenovo is already building a massive laptop plant in Saudi (2 million sq ft factory). Guess who will be working in those factories. Government needs to do whatever it takes to bridge any cost gaps, even if it means reducing power costs for industrial players to 0 for the first few years of operations.
And then Trump will put extra 20% tariff on Brazil as well... It takes time and effort to move production lines, and there's too much uncertainty so everyone's staying put for now.
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If you're indicating Gulf Arabs will be working in those factories or be in junior or even middle to senior management I'd say you're providing evidence of your ignorance of Khaleeji Arabs .
Those factories will be staffed by Indian & Chinese people all the way with only Arab directors on the board & token Arab senior management.
Moreover how's our FTA with UK linked to KSA setting up mfg units ? Perhaps that's another reason our FTA with GCC isn't fructifying. The real danger lies in them spending their petro dollars to shore up mfg in their lands & emerging as exporters to the world especially the EU or even the US using hired labour. You could even see them pursue FTAs with the EU.
As oil revenues dry up all past alliances in the Gulf will start feeling the strain , more so once the threat from Iran dissipates. The Saudis are already building up a full fledged city in direct competition to Dubai. Both the Saudis & UAE backed different factions in Yemen - a little known fact which the reason the Houthis could turn the tables on their opponents for they were divided & are now threatening regional trade .
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I do not have an issue with others poaching Indian talents tho, that is standard market practice. Let the markets take care of it. The govt should not and must not care about it. Like I wrote
==================================
But that's precisely what I'm arguing - GoI mustn't facilitate immigration. Perhaps you meant GoI mustn't impede immigration given you argued earlier that whoever wants to emigrate should be free to leave.
In any case GoI can't prevent them just as we can't prevent Sweden from campus placement in India for Sweden.
What we can do is push on for biz related visas. Whether that should be a deal breaker I can't comment but I suspect GoI is using this as an excuse to stall. Why exactly it's doing so too is something I'm ignorant about though I'm going purely by instinct here .
Modi government is definitely shorn of talent . The very fact Vaishnaw is saddled with multiple KEY ministries ought to indicate that . However I don't think Goel & Puri are as incompetent as you're making them out to be.
The larger problem is our politics in terms of having specialists or domain experts in charge of ministries is still in its infancy or not even that.
The US doesn't have this problem as the president is free to choose whomever he wants to staff his posts which usually goes to technocrats . He doesn't have to distribute largesse to accomodate political allies or supporters in the cabinet.
UK circumvented this problem by having a shadow cabinet. But then they've a two party system. Having said that , it shouldn't prevent us as in the Congress from following the same principle or the BJP when it gets to sit in the opposition. It will come to pass but when exactly is something I can't predict though I don't see it happening in the immediate future .
The other bigger issue is our steel frame is rusted. How can we allow a BA in English Literature or History who tops the UPSC examinations to eventually become a Finance or Revenue Secretary or even the Defence Secretary ?
We need a specialised cadre there where the minimum requirements for the former ought to be a degree in commerce preferably in economics with additional marks for a PG in specialization. Ditto for defence where the minimum qualification ought to be an engineer or someone with a bachelor's degree in science or mathematics at the very least & a dedicated cadre on the lines of a finance cadre & defence cadre like we've the IFS which itself should be open ONLY to graduates in international relations .
All the generalists ought to be relegated to DMs or BDOs across the country.
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