Indian Economy (25 Viewers)

Ajayant Tripathi said:
Quoting to thread my take in this discussion.

Automotive sector is not just cars. Its a full scale ecosystem which interacts with a lot of other industries. No other industry has so many touchpoints in that many industries. So, its actually appaling to witness sluggish growth in PV market.

To those who may want to do some data analysis here is the json of the dataset. All the data is from autopunditz or teambhp. Please note: they sometimes revise a few hundreds up and down for back months.

{
"dataset": "India Passenger Vehicle Sales",
"period": "August 2020 - May 2025",
"frequency": "Monthly",
"unit": "Vehicles Sold",
"data": [
{"month": "2020-08", "sales": 233755},
{"month": "2020-09", "sales": 292558},
{"month": "2020-10", "sales": 333093},
{"month": "2020-11", "sales": 285972},
{"month": "2020-12", "sales": 276381},
{"month": "2021-01", "sales": 303387},
{"month": "2021-02", "sales": 308592},
{"month": "2021-03", "sales": 320480},
{"month": "2021-04", "sales": 286622},
{"month": "2021-05", "sales": 103342},
{"month": "2021-06", "sales": 255397},
{"month": "2021-07", "sales": 289148},
{"month": "2021-08", "sales": 256707},
{"month": "2021-09", "sales": 184430},
{"month": "2021-10", "sales": 258714},
{"month": "2021-11", "sales": 244711},
{"month": "2021-12", "sales": 253829},
{"month": "2022-01", "sales": 290097},
{"month": "2022-02", "sales": 295076},
{"month": "2022-03", "sales": 311761},
{"month": "2022-04", "sales": 283866},
{"month": "2022-05", "sales": 286618},
{"month": "2022-06", "sales": 314223},
{"month": "2022-07", "sales": 334166},
{"month": "2022-08", "sales": 324805},
{"month": "2022-09", "sales": 354220},
{"month": "2022-10", "sales": 335947},
{"month": "2022-11", "sales": 322062},
{"month": "2022-12", "sales": 275130},
{"month": "2023-01", "sales": 345805},
{"month": "2023-02", "sales": 334245},
{"month": "2023-03", "sales": 335976},
{"month": "2023-04", "sales": 331509},
{"month": "2023-05", "sales": 334499},
{"month": "2023-06", "sales": 327544},
{"month": "2023-07", "sales": 351908},
{"month": "2023-08", "sales": 360230},
{"month": "2023-09", "sales": 362836},
{"month": "2023-10", "sales": 390853},
{"month": "2023-11", "sales": 334868},
{"month": "2023-12", "sales": 287204},
{"month": "2024-01", "sales": 393471},
{"month": "2024-02", "sales": 372178},
{"month": "2024-03", "sales": 369381},
{"month": "2024-04", "sales": 337070},
{"month": "2024-05", "sales": 349057},
{"month": "2024-06", "sales": 339418},
{"month": "2024-07", "sales": 343026},
{"month": "2024-08", "sales": 354273},
{"month": "2024-09", "sales": 358879},
{"month": "2024-10", "sales": 397947},
{"month": "2024-11", "sales": 351592},
{"month": "2024-12", "sales": 321345},
{"month": "2025-01", "sales": 401538},
{"month": "2025-02", "sales": 380691},
{"month": "2025-03", "sales": 385860},
{"month": "2025-04", "sales": 353449},
{"month": "2025-05", "sales": 349713}
]
}
Click to expand...
Entry level buyers are missing from both phones and automobiles hence the mass cars/phones which moved a ton of volumes are not moving.

All the growth is happening in the more expensive category something worth discussing
 
sauntheninja said:
Entry level buyers are missing from both phones and automobiles hence the mass cars/phones which moved a ton of volumes are not moving.

All the growth is happening in the more expensive category something worth discussing
Click to expand...
A good query but its just one part of the bigger problem.

The total PV sales seem to have plateaued around 3.5 lac sales per month. A 2.5% annual growth in sales volume. Its abysmal. So, Currently, I will like to know what can be done to increase ownership of PV.

Will lowering the taxes work? Afterall the lost revenue can be amortized over a few years from taxes on after sales services, spare parts, toll, fuel taxes, income tax(increased employment).

I think we should now come out of the scarce mindset. Govt. should be welcoming and appreciative of increased car ownership.
 
sauntheninja said:
Entry level buyers are missing from both phones and automobiles hence the mass cars/phones which moved a ton of volumes are not moving.

All the growth is happening in the more expensive category something worth discussing
Click to expand...
Used car sales? That is where the poorer buyers are, those that want to move from 2 wheelers to cars as they marry and have children and 2 wheelers are no longer suitable.
 
Doreamon said:
Is it true that AI is replacing junior developer jobs in software and no more fresh hiring going on in india like past ? I was asking chatgpt about software hiring pre covid i.e 2019 vs 2025 and it does not look like that ..

View attachment 42326View attachment 42327


Or there is more to the story ?
Click to expand...
AI is the story. Now a lot more AI engineers and full stack developers are needed, though not in the same quantity as before. Maintaining legacy software will always need engineers too. Chat GPT cannot solve problems unique to yoir company environment.
 
shade2 said:

View: https://x.com/DivaJain2/status/1941079488634483093

Tata's Star Bazaar cucked out and surrendered some time after the Wuhan virus pandemic lockdowns had stopped
All their stores were replaced by Zudio.

They had great product selection, meat/fish/eggs in one place along with the usual supermarket stuff
Click to expand...



Star bazaar running successful in Bengaluru. Used to buy bulk and come back to chennai. Their procurement seems to be direct.
ezsasa said:
automobile sector is an established sector since they have been here for decades, and have seen so many ups and downs. established in the sense, they have strong market, market research, distribution networks, supplier network etc. there is hardly anything new that outsiders have to tell them, except in terms of customer feedback.

because they are so vast, they are slow to react to market demand.

as for that news article, their business is pretty much cyclical now, last major shock they got was supreme court judgment on BS4 engines.
Click to expand...
Indian automobile sector was supposed to be 10 million per year by 2020. But we are still 4.5 million and growing. Primarily GST+Cess is extremely high and illogical length based/ engine based taxation.

They should change this taxation structure. Like tax based on powerplant. ICE>Series hybrid> ev.
 
Ajayant Tripathi said:
Quoting to thread my take in this discussion.

Automotive sector is not just cars. Its a full scale ecosystem which interacts with a lot of other industries. No other industry has so many touchpoints in that many industries. So, its actually appaling to witness sluggish growth in PV market.

To those who may want to do some data analysis here is the json of the dataset. All the data is from autopunditz or teambhp. Please note: they sometimes revise a few hundreds up and down for back months.

{
"dataset": "India Passenger Vehicle Sales",
"period": "August 2020 - May 2025",
"frequency": "Monthly",
"unit": "Vehicles Sold",
"data": [
{"month": "2020-08", "sales": 233755},
{"month": "2020-09", "sales": 292558},
{"month": "2020-10", "sales": 333093},
{"month": "2020-11", "sales": 285972},
{"month": "2020-12", "sales": 276381},
{"month": "2021-01", "sales": 303387},
{"month": "2021-02", "sales": 308592},
{"month": "2021-03", "sales": 320480},
{"month": "2021-04", "sales": 286622},
{"month": "2021-05", "sales": 103342},
{"month": "2021-06", "sales": 255397},
{"month": "2021-07", "sales": 289148},
{"month": "2021-08", "sales": 256707},
{"month": "2021-09", "sales": 184430},
{"month": "2021-10", "sales": 258714},
{"month": "2021-11", "sales": 244711},
{"month": "2021-12", "sales": 253829},
{"month": "2022-01", "sales": 290097},
{"month": "2022-02", "sales": 295076},
{"month": "2022-03", "sales": 311761},
{"month": "2022-04", "sales": 283866},
{"month": "2022-05", "sales": 286618},
{"month": "2022-06", "sales": 314223},
{"month": "2022-07", "sales": 334166},
{"month": "2022-08", "sales": 324805},
{"month": "2022-09", "sales": 354220},
{"month": "2022-10", "sales": 335947},
{"month": "2022-11", "sales": 322062},
{"month": "2022-12", "sales": 275130},
{"month": "2023-01", "sales": 345805},
{"month": "2023-02", "sales": 334245},
{"month": "2023-03", "sales": 335976},
{"month": "2023-04", "sales": 331509},
{"month": "2023-05", "sales": 334499},
{"month": "2023-06", "sales": 327544},
{"month": "2023-07", "sales": 351908},
{"month": "2023-08", "sales": 360230},
{"month": "2023-09", "sales": 362836},
{"month": "2023-10", "sales": 390853},
{"month": "2023-11", "sales": 334868},
{"month": "2023-12", "sales": 287204},
{"month": "2024-01", "sales": 393471},
{"month": "2024-02", "sales": 372178},
{"month": "2024-03", "sales": 369381},
{"month": "2024-04", "sales": 337070},
{"month": "2024-05", "sales": 349057},
{"month": "2024-06", "sales": 339418},
{"month": "2024-07", "sales": 343026},
{"month": "2024-08", "sales": 354273},
{"month": "2024-09", "sales": 358879},
{"month": "2024-10", "sales": 397947},
{"month": "2024-11", "sales": 351592},
{"month": "2024-12", "sales": 321345},
{"month": "2025-01", "sales": 401538},
{"month": "2025-02", "sales": 380691},
{"month": "2025-03", "sales": 385860},
{"month": "2025-04", "sales": 353449},
{"month": "2025-05", "sales": 349713}
]
}
Click to expand...
1751748229730.webp
 
Why is there a dip in November December time every year in vehicle sales?
 
Doreamon said:
Is it true that AI is replacing junior developer jobs in software and no more fresh hiring going on in india like past ? I was asking chatgpt about software hiring pre covid i.e 2019 vs 2025 and it does not look like that ..

View attachment 42326View attachment 42327


Or there is more to the story ?
Click to expand...
not so much A.I, basically tech firms in west had overhired and overexpanded in pandemic because then their central banks made getting credit pretty easy, when things cooled down and interest rates rose and demand fell, a lot these firms had to downsize and suddenly number of news jobs fell sharply , it will take some time before demands comes back up .

also lack of demand is west means our IT dihadi firms were getting less projects thus they started skipping campus offers which inturn started the whole panic, AI is another factor but main factor mainly this.
 
swesh said:
Why is there a dip in November December time every year in vehicle sales?
Click to expand...
Here are some reasons:

Jan Peaks: Year Aging effect. Dec vehicle is one year older than Jan vehicle.
March Peak: Discount hunting due to FY end.
October Peak: Festive season

Sales are mostly sluggish in Dec as the demand migrates to Jan mostly.

So, There is a seasonality in our sales fiures. Fortunately the bottom is rising. But unfortunately, its a slow rise.
 
Doreamon said:
Is it true that AI is replacing junior developer jobs in software and no more fresh hiring going on in india like past ? I was asking chatgpt about software hiring pre covid i.e 2019 vs 2025 and it does not look like that ..

View attachment 42326View attachment 42327


Or there is more to the story ?
Click to expand...
Fresher hiring got reduced due to many reasons, 2022 attrition got the companies to overhire, then us federal rates increased, labur market directly affected, then ai comes

And most of the vacancy are for senior developer or staff software engineer, like upwards of 10 years experience
Or there would be vacancy for 2-3 yr exp people

Fresher hiring is happening but reduced by a lot
 
sauntheninja said:
Entry level buyers are missing from both phones and automobiles hence the mass cars/phones which moved a ton of volumes are not moving.

All the growth is happening in the more expensive category something worth discussing
Click to expand...

problem is high taxes and traffic. indian cities are not built for even humans, forget cars. most cities where poeple have income to afford cars, have either no parking or wide roads. if you want car sales to grow, build another 100 cities like Noida, where every main road is 6 lanes wide
 
ArjunMK1A said:
Indian automobile sector was supposed to be 10 million per year by 2020. But we are still 4.5 million and growing. Primarily GST+Cess is extremely high and illogical length based/ engine based taxation.
Click to expand...

who gave this one crore projection and in which year?
 
bakofbakchod said:
problem is high taxes and traffic. indian cities are not built for even humans, forget cars. most cities where poeple have income to afford cars, have either no parking or wide roads. if you want car sales to grow, build another 100 cities like Noida, where every main road is 6 lanes wide
Click to expand...
We still are underpenetrated in terms of car ownership. So, its not about those able to afford don't have parking. These are few people only now.

The real impact is because of taxation. Cars are taxed as luxury items. Govt. need to come out of this stigma. Cars, ACs, Refrigerators should be treated as essentials. They induce consumption.
 
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