Indian Economy

[ezsasa]

To be fair .. there is a world of difference between germany going kaput and the grass eaters going kaput .

only during times like these, we get to make statements like canada behaving like pakiland etc.
so might as well apply Indian gaze on western countries, reciprocity for decades of western gaze on us.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

View: https://x.com/BRICSinfo/status/1851696470384107989

 

[LETHALFORCE]

View: https://x.com/BRICSinfo/status/1850917635963097335

 

[Vinash]

View: https://x.com/IndianTechGuide/status/1851866697608855835

Only a matter of time till Andhra Telugus create a new Hyderabad

 

[FalconSlayers]

Only a matter of time till Andhra Telugus create a new Hyderabad

Well only if these projects materialise. Steel production isn't growing as fast and imports are rising.




Yes its a rumour but seems plausible since the ground breakings have slowed down.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

View: https://x.com/PIB_India/status/1852220622623117668

Is it good to have so much foreign reserves with the shifts in currencies and payment systems occuring??

 

[LETHALFORCE]

View: https://x.com/afristats_polls/status/1850976798110335471

How does pakistan even appear on this list???????

 

[FalconSlayers]

View: https://x.com/afristats_polls/status/1850976798110335471

How does pakistan even appear on this list???????

See as someone who as done data science, basically what they do in these "consultancy firms" is take raw data, extrapolate it, train the model using the data (machine learning algos) and make projections. This is just a raw and simple way I've explained here although it is a fairly cumbersome task.

So these "projections" tend to show them as one of the top economies even if they won't even come close by.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Electricity consumption growth is very poor

India's power consumption rises marginally to 140.4 bn units in Oct

India's power consumption increased by one percent to 140.47 billion units in October compared to last year. The peak power demand in October decreased compared to the same month last year. Experts say the consumption showed marginal growth due to a higher base effect and the onset of winter.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[bhadhusha]

we just need to look at their old jhumlas. they had started this jhumla of "jobless growth" years back for political reasons. so much effort is being put into disproving this theory.

in the mean time, so many opeds, so many academic papers, so many TV debates to promote this jhumla that came from this cozy club.

From Reliance to Unilever, firms worried about low consumer demand in India

Consumer companies in India are struggling with declining urban middle-class spending due to inflation and unemployment. Major firms, including Reliance and Hindustan Unilever, have reported weaker demand and challenging conditions. Urban demand growth has been falling for five quarters...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

What used to be 80% of the market is not growing,” he said, referring to the entry-level small cars whose sales is seen as a gauge of urban consumer demand.

Small cars made up as much as 80% of Maruti’s sales as recently as 2019, according to Bhargava.

Revenue from operations for Reliance’s retail unit, India’s largest retailer and part of billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s conglomerate, slipped 3.5% for the quarter ended Sept. 30 — a fall it attributed partly to weak demand for fashion and lifestyle products.

Revival of rural demand, welcome as it is, cannot offset the shortfall in urban mass spending. For Unilever’s India unit, smaller towns and villages make up only a third of its sales, Chief Financial Officer Ritesh Tiwari told reporters last week. Any recovery in demand growth was a few quarters away, he said.

“The pattern is quite clear that urban growth has trended down in recent quarters,” Rohit Jawa, Hindustan Unilever’s chief executive officer, said after the maker of Dove soaps and Magnum ice-creams posted sluggish earnings

The latest data from credit information firm TransUnion CIBIL shows credit card delinquencies increased by 17% as of June from a year ago.

Rising credit card defaults and slowing urban demand are linked, Suresh Ganapathy, head of financial services research at Macquarie Capital, told Bloomberg News.

So looks like there is indeed there is a slow down, factors could be several , post covid crunch, global crisis etc , but we must be honest to accept that yes there is slow down

What are your thoughts ?

 

[ezsasa]

From Reliance to Unilever, firms worried about low consumer demand in India

Consumer companies in India are struggling with declining urban middle-class spending due to inflation and unemployment. Major firms, including Reliance and Hindustan Unilever, have reported weaker demand and challenging conditions. Urban demand growth has been falling for five quarters...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

View attachment 13899

What used to be 80% of the market is not growing,” he said, referring to the entry-level small cars whose sales is seen as a gauge of urban consumer demand.

Small cars made up as much as 80% of Maruti’s sales as recently as 2019, according to Bhargava.

Revenue from operations for Reliance’s retail unit, India’s largest retailer and part of billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s conglomerate, slipped 3.5% for the quarter ended Sept. 30 — a fall it attributed partly to weak demand for fashion and lifestyle products.

Revival of rural demand, welcome as it is, cannot offset the shortfall in urban mass spending. For Unilever’s India unit, smaller towns and villages make up only a third of its sales, Chief Financial Officer Ritesh Tiwari told reporters last week. Any recovery in demand growth was a few quarters away, he said.

“The pattern is quite clear that urban growth has trended down in recent quarters,” Rohit Jawa, Hindustan Unilever’s chief executive officer, said after the maker of Dove soaps and Magnum ice-creams posted sluggish earnings

The latest data from credit information firm TransUnion CIBIL shows credit card delinquencies increased by 17% as of June from a year ago.

Rising credit card defaults and slowing urban demand are linked, Suresh Ganapathy, head of financial services research at Macquarie Capital, told Bloomberg News.

So looks like there is indeed there is a slow down, factors could be several , post covid crunch, global crisis etc , but we must be honest to accept that yes there is slow down

What are your thoughts ?

firstly, it is a bloomberg article. we never know what scheme is being played thru them.

even if take what is being said in the article at face value, if consumers are not spending in the items listed in the article, they must be spending/investing somewhere else. for that we have wait a few months for more data to come out.

 

[GaudaNaresh]

View: https://x.com/afristats_polls/status/1850976798110335471

How does pakistan even appear on this list???????

by applying noob economic theories and grade 10 math to current data.
You just assume that if you invest in a 3rd world economy, it will grow at 7-10% for a few decades to reach first world income levels if its a small country in population and in a century if its a large country in population (100-150m+). Then u apply math of what middle income for their population would look like. so take like 300 million pakis in 2100, apply 20K-30K base model middle rung income factor an produce expected GDP numbers.
And bada bing, bada boom, you end up with 'indonesia - muh xyz trillion, pakistan xyz trillion, india xyz trillion'etc.
you dont take real world into account and think on terms of whether companies even WANT to invest billions of dollars of infra in pakiland over vietnam in terms of investment security, production issues etc. are concerned.
Those of us who live in the west, just go ask goras - hey if i give u 150K a year for a upper management job in a factory, will you go live in the following countries, name India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakiland or Iraq and see what they say about the latter two.

These are not part of the grade12 feel good economic reports generated about muh future economies.

 

[karn]

From Reliance to Unilever, firms worried about low consumer demand in India

Consumer companies in India are struggling with declining urban middle-class spending due to inflation and unemployment. Major firms, including Reliance and Hindustan Unilever, have reported weaker demand and challenging conditions. Urban demand growth has been falling for five quarters...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

View attachment 13899

What used to be 80% of the market is not growing,” he said, referring to the entry-level small cars whose sales is seen as a gauge of urban consumer demand.

Small cars made up as much as 80% of Maruti’s sales as recently as 2019, according to Bhargava.

Revenue from operations for Reliance’s retail unit, India’s largest retailer and part of billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s conglomerate, slipped 3.5% for the quarter ended Sept. 30 — a fall it attributed partly to weak demand for fashion and lifestyle products.

Revival of rural demand, welcome as it is, cannot offset the shortfall in urban mass spending. For Unilever’s India unit, smaller towns and villages make up only a third of its sales, Chief Financial Officer Ritesh Tiwari told reporters last week. Any recovery in demand growth was a few quarters away, he said.

“The pattern is quite clear that urban growth has trended down in recent quarters,” Rohit Jawa, Hindustan Unilever’s chief executive officer, said after the maker of Dove soaps and Magnum ice-creams posted sluggish earnings

The latest data from credit information firm TransUnion CIBIL shows credit card delinquencies increased by 17% as of June from a year ago.

Rising credit card defaults and slowing urban demand are linked, Suresh Ganapathy, head of financial services research at Macquarie Capital, told Bloomberg News.

So looks like there is indeed there is a slow down, factors could be several , post covid crunch, global crisis etc , but we must be honest to accept that yes there is slow down

What are your thoughts ?

The BS level in this article can be gauged by this statement.

“What used to be 80% of the market is not growing,” he said, referring to the entry-level small cars whose sales is seen as a gauge of urban consumer demand.

Small cars made up as much as 80% of Maruti’s sales as recently as 2019

This segment that "used" to be 80% of marutis sales 5 years ago is not growing .. Well no shit Indians have started gravitating towards higher end SUVs.. this dude is crying that his bottom of the barrel segment is suffering.. This is an indictment of his business .. not of Indias.

“The motorcycle industry is almost flattish with 1% to 2% growth only. We had thought that it would be upwards of 5%-6%,” Rakesh Sharma, executive director at Bajaj Auto Ltd., said in an Oct. 16 post-earnings call.

1-2 % You say ? Well somebody is lying.

Bajaj Auto Monthly Sales Performance Report for 2024 | Bajaj Auto

Check out the monthly sales performance report for Bajaj Auto for the year 2024.

www.bajajauto.com

Indian 2 Wheeler Sales Figures – September 2024

OEMwise Sales Snapshot –Two Wheeler Modelwise Sales for September 2024 –

www.autopunditz.com

 

[ulinatheclever]

So called Experts have created a mayhem on twitter that Auto industry is on verge of collapse and sales are destroyed and over 8 lac cars in inventory lying unsold.

They are doing a clever job of putting lies. Every year there is trend of Car sales declining from August to October and then it rises again in festive season. They are not comparing Sep’24 with Sep’23 but Sep’24 with Aug’24 and saying 18% decline in automobile sales. But compared to Sep’23 auto sales were up like 3-4%.

Also the figure of 7-8lacs lying unsold is almost a lie and fabrication of auto pundits from some major left leaning media​

The BS level in this article can be gauged by this statement.




This segment that "used" to be 80% of marutis sales 5 years ago is not growing .. Well no shit Indians have started gravitating towards higher end SUVs.. this dude is crying that his bottom of the barrel segment is suffering.. This is an indictment of his business .. not of Indias.




1-2 % You say ? Well somebody is lying.

Bajaj Auto Monthly Sales Performance Report for 2024 | Bajaj Auto

Check out the monthly sales performance report for Bajaj Auto for the year 2024.

www.bajajauto.com

View attachment 13904

As someone in the Automotive industry now I will say a few things

The demand is there, just not like last year (11%).
This month's current estimate
Maruti -205000
Toyota -29000
Tata & Hyundai - 59000 each
Kia 22000 and Toyota 29000

What Maruti is crying about is that the lower-end demand of the market is getting hammered due to interest rates being high for a long time and want it lowered ( Probably going to be done by December)

The 8 lacs car figure is absolute nonsense. Think about this: all car manufacturers don't have that kind of storage capacity, let alone dealers.

Just one more point: we exported a lot this month as well.