Indian Economy

[SKC]

Bjp needa these schemes to so that, they don't lose ground to congress and regional parties. 1500rs a month to very specific bracket of women is not a bad policy, it can even be good. I have posted here about female labour participation and how women don't have disposable income of their own, which is pretty bad for internal consumption of our country.

Our population is like that only. We don't want anything except free money, bijli, pani, khana, daaru, dava, etc etc.

 

[arjuntank]

View: https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/1897298263579201741

 

[Nibbler]

what factors you have considered?

simple balance sheet math

refined petroleum exports are like ~$50b to ~$150b in crude oil imports. oil is one of the few things where the extracting raw material is actually more value add than processing it.

thats why when people tall about being oil rich nobody is talin about the countries with a lot of refinerys.

 

[Hari Sud]

Trump’s onslaught is definitely going to impact Indian economy that too negatively. The most impact will be on exports.

There is another school of thought that 20% import Tariffs on China exports to US will have a positive impact on India. That is very unlikely because all this chaos of Tariffs, which Trump has created is to bring back manufacturing from China back to America. This 20% tariff together with 10% done earlier in Trump’s first term is too much for any export oriented country to withstand. Businesses instead of placing orders in China will think of placing orders within America.

India is not in scheme of things of Trump. He is unlikely encourage manufacturing to relocate to India.

Hence there is hard time ahead for India.

 

[haldilal]

Ya'll what we need the most now, rail factories. It even has Industrial robots and automated parts carrier robots, an constrast to the Chennai one.


View: https://x.com/haldilal/status/1897565315053060508

 

[Anants]

this time, too many trump induced variables are beyond my capacity to "calculate", that's why i relied of previous round of trump tariffs + delta to get to a rough baseline in that previous post of mine.

i guess we will have to wait for professional experts to do these calculations.

for example : let's take one variable. let's say he indeed goes ahead with tariffs on canada and mexico. tariff is paid by importer, which is ultimately paid by the consumer. usually this sort of "tax" mopup removes excess cash from the system into gormint coffers. traditional logic dictates, removing excess cash in the system reduces inflation. dollar strengthening/weakening abroad depends on how much dollar is available abroad. will his treasury department release enough USD to keep a balance outside of U.S? i don't know.

the guy is not just going after one variable, he is cutting another source of USD distribution channel i.e NGO grants. if that money too for now is not coming into the market. what impact will that have? i don't know.


for now, i am of the view that this is the best approach for us regular folks, till something actually happens.
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Look I will give you one constant. US president only remember to reach out to India at the end of term. It shall be same this time. Before that it shall be usual blow hot or blow cold but this time with Trump eshtyle. Trump is not letting go of levers wrt India - that why package was immediately released to Pakistan (maybe it was quid pro for interested person surrender to US - but I think package was for lever maintenance)